Minnesota at UCLA - 2024 Matchup Preview
Minnesota logo Minnesota Golden Gophers at UCLA BruinsUCLA logo
Saturday, October 12th 2024 (9:00 PM EDT)
Minnesota -3.5 (39.0) (-166)  Open: -4.5
Minnesota 21 - UCLA: 17  (Big Ten)

 
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (23 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
UCLA is playing their 5th straight game
MINN is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Minnesota -8   (SP+ MINN -11.5)

Projected Score: MINN: 25 - UCLA: 17 (41)
MINN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MINN Travel: 1515 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Bruins (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 25 (16 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Minnesota vs North Carolina+2.052.5L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/7 Minnesota vs Rhode Island-27.547.5W 48 - 0OY
Sat 9/14 Minnesota vs Nevada-17.544.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Minnesota vs Iowa+3.034.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 9/28 Minnesota at Michigan+10.534.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/5 Minnesota vs USC+8.545.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 10/12 Minnesota at UCLA-3.539.0W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Minnesota vs Maryland-6.045.0W 48 - 23OY
Sat 11/2 Minnesota at Illinois-2.547.0W 25 - 17UY
Sat 11/9 Minnesota at Rutgers-6.544.5L 19 - 26ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Minnesota vs Penn State+11.045.0L 25 - 26OY
Fri 11/29 Minnesota at Wisconsin-1.540.5W 24 - 7UY
Fri 1/3 Minnesota vs Virginia Tech-10.043.5W 24 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
UCLA's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 UCLA at Hawai'i-13.555.5W 16 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 UCLA vs Indiana+3.546.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 9/21 UCLA at LSU+21.556.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/28 UCLA vs Oregon+23.554.5L 13 - 34UY
Sat 10/5 UCLA at Penn State+30.048.0L 11 - 27UY
Sat 10/12 UCLA vs Minnesota+3.539.0L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/19 UCLA at Rutgers+4.042.5W 35 - 32OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 UCLA at Nebraska+7.538.5W 27 - 20OY
Fri 11/8 UCLA vs Iowa+6.544.5W 20 - 17UY
Fri 11/15 UCLA at Washington+4.547.0L 19 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 UCLA vs USC+5.053.0L 13 - 19UN
Sat 11/30 UCLA vs Fresno State-7.546.5W 20 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 8, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)26.244% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)16.936% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
UCLA#99 (.14)39% (112)18.434% (131)2.47 (132)8743% (56)2423.15 (123)#68 (.16)46% (110)25.345% (83)47% (120)4.45 (123)68.91.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
UCLA#99 (.14)39% (112)34% (131)2.47 (132)8743% (56)2423.15 (123)#68 (.16)46% (110)45% (83)47% (120)4.45 (123)68.91.41.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Offense1326.222.644.9%4.380.8193071032043.744%56%44%46%16%.2
UCLA Defense1225.324.345.9%4.451.1 - - - - - 43%57%45%47%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Defense1316.918.838.9%3.321.5 - - - - - 50%50%36%42%19%.08
UCLA Offense1218.41639%3.151.418329872423.141%59%34%43%17%.14

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Minnesota1329:1318.545%90%4.535.60.81.54.41.8228.6
UCLA1231:071843%50%8.268.91.41.15.31.8227.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Offense1344% (111)44% (65)28.2102.93.717 (84).11 (80)2.7 (119)73% (69)10% (80)0.88 (113)
UCLA Defense1243% (2)45% (83) - - - - .05 (30)2.92 (52)78% (101)10% (68)0.72 (2)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Defense1350% (63)36% (8) - - - - .02 (19)2.71 (22)74% (69)9% (90)0.95 (50)
UCLA Offense1241% (122)34% (131)2886.93.14 (133)-.05 (129)2.47 (132)70% (87)10% (85)0.94 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Offense1356% (25)46% (29)19.529.2204.1710.518 (68)5 (6).27 (58)1.4 (129)30% (46)31% (80).32 (76)6% (70)2 (75)
UCLA Defense1257% (132)47% (120) - - - - - - 10 (66).26 (82)1.4 (15)30% (100)33% (106).31 (70)8% (8)2 (53)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Defense1350% (71)42% (80) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (27)1.3 (6)33% (43)26% (16).15 (10)10% (1)1.8 (20)
UCLA Offense1259% (12)43% (56)21.633.2242.27.311.217 (79)11 (72).26 (62)1.5 (95)36% (126)36% (21).42 (30)7% (99)1.9 (102)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 9.69   UCLA: 2.12

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 10.4   UCLA: -1.3




UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 2.12 #61
UCLA's Offense Rating: 16.06 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 12.38 #94
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
UCLA's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCLA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #75
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.6
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.8

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Minnesota 25
UCLA 17


Total Points: 41

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

UCLA's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12UCLA17Minnesota21MinnesotaMinnesota -3.5Minnesota39.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCLA000 Overs
Minnesota111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#32) Minnesota Info
Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.32 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Minnesota has won 1 straight
Minnesota has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Minnesota Notes
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent

Minnesota Highlights
Minnesota offense is good in red zone (#93)
Minnesota offense is good on 3rd downs
Minnesota defense does not give up big plays (#83)
Minnesota defense is really good in red zone (#77)
Minnesota has a good run defense (#6)
Minnesota Defensive Line is very good (#9)
Minnesota Secondary is very good (#76)
Minnesota has a great TO Margin (#82)
Minnesota commits very few Penalties (#38)
Minnesota defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Minnesota Deficiencies
Minnesota Can Not Run the Ball (#49)
Minnesota offense is not Explosive (#72)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUCLAMINN
OverallOver#78#18
OffenseOff#92#37
DefenseDef#71#19
Special TeamsST#74#1
PassingPass#64#11
RushingRush#99#53
Run BlockRBLK#85#29
Pass BlockPBLK#106#68
Route RunningWR Rt#58#53
TacklingTkl#48#77
Run DefenseR Def#77#18
Pass Rush DefPRush#99#60
Coverage DefCov#41#33

Rematch from Week 7
Minnesota 3.5 (39.0)
Minnesota won at UCLA this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat UCLA last year (21-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MINN | UCLA
Depth Chart: MINN | UCLA
Rosters: MINN | UCLA
(#61) UCLA Info
Power Rating: 2.12 #61
Offense Rating: 16.06 #103
Defense Rating: 12.38 #94
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #44
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.45 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

UCLA has lost 4 straight
UCLA has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

UCLA Notes
(12/5) Fired OC Bieniemy after one season
(12/5) Hired IU Co-OC Tino Sunseri
(11/24) Off 3-11 on 3rd, 0-3 4th, 13 pts in L (USC)
(11/18) Garbers bad, Rgame abysmal in Wash L, Def good
(11/13) 3 W's w/ Iowa, Garbers good, Rgame good in W
(11/2) 2 straight Road W's, fighting hard. Garbers good
(10/28) -5.7 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 7 games
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#124) into week 9
(10/19) Hung 35, torched Gers, Garbers great, Rgame bad
(10/18) Has not scored < 17 pts in any game to date

UCLA Highlights
UCLA defense does not give up big plays (#15)
UCLA Secondary is very good (#136)

UCLA Deficiencies
UCLA has a really bad Offense
UCLA has a really bad Offense at Home
UCLA Can Not Run the Ball (#102)
UCLA Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)
UCLA offense is really bad (#70)
UCLA Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#46)
UCLA offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#86)
UCLA run game is really bad (#81)
UCLA has a bad defense (#134)
UCLA has a bad red zone defense (#133)


  
Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)26840367%28291867.0
Drake Lindsey4580%501010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor205986104.880
Marcus Major (Tr)7835234.540
Jaren Mangham (Tr)1912306.518
Jordan Nubin111901.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Jackson75863411.539
Elijah Spencer52685613.229
Darius Taylor5435026.522
Jameson Geers27286410.623

View Minnesota's Full Roster
Minnesota's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Lindenberg945136
Maverick Baranowski655112
Kerry Brown633004
Danny Striggow526561
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith27126101
Jack Henderson449611
Danny Striggow526561
Jah Joyner326597
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Walley4221110
Ethan Robinson (Tr)423009
Jah Joyner326597

UCLA's OC Eric Bieniemy
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Garbers23536365%272716117.5
Justyn Martin243569%179105.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden12450524.140
Keegan Jones4717913.822
Jalen Berger4817803.718
Ethan Garbers8313711.757
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Moliki Matavao41506212.335
TJ Harden4036819.253
Logan Loya29348412.029
Kwazi Gilmer31345211.148

View UCLA's Full Roster
UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Carson Schwesinger1369433
Kain Medrano7211244
Oluwafemi Oladejo5714562
KJ Wallace4991110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Oluwafemi Oladejo5714562
Carson Schwesinger1369433
Devin Aupiu155211
Kain Medrano7211244
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
KJ Wallace4991110
Kaylin Moore (Tr)372019
Bryan Addison (Tr)431005