Minnesota at UCLA - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (9:00 PM EDT)
Minnesota -3.5 (39.0) (-166) Open: -4.5
Minnesota 21 - UCLA: 17 (Big Ten)

Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (23 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCLA is playing their 5th straight game
MINN is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Minnesota -8 (SP+ MINN -11.5)
Projected Score: MINN: 25 - UCLA: 17 (42)
MINN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MINN Travel: 1515 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Bruins (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 25 (16 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MINN Players
UCLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Minnesota vs North Carolina	+2.0	52.5	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Minnesota vs Rhode Island	-27.5	47.5	W 48 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Minnesota vs Nevada	-17.5	44.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Minnesota vs Iowa	+3.0	34.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Minnesota at Michigan	+10.5	34.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Minnesota vs USC	+8.5	45.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Minnesota at UCLA	-3.5	39.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Minnesota vs Maryland	-6.0	45.0	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Minnesota at Illinois	-2.5	47.0	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Minnesota at Rutgers	-6.5	44.5	L 19 - 26	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Minnesota vs Penn State	+11.0	45.0	L 25 - 26	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Minnesota at Wisconsin	-1.5	40.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Fri 1/3	Minnesota vs Virginia Tech	-10.0	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

UCLA's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UCLA at Hawai'i	-13.5	55.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	UCLA vs Indiana	+3.5	46.5	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/21	UCLA at LSU	+21.5	56.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/28	UCLA vs Oregon	+23.5	54.5	L 13 - 34	U	Y
Sat 10/5	UCLA at Penn State	+30.0	48.0	L 11 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/12	UCLA vs Minnesota	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCLA at Rutgers	+4.0	42.5	W 35 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	UCLA at Nebraska	+7.5	38.5	W 27 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/8	UCLA vs Iowa	+6.5	44.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/15	UCLA at Washington	+4.5	47.0	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	UCLA vs USC	+5.0	53.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/30	UCLA vs Fresno State	-7.5	46.5	W 20 - 13	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)	26.2	44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)	16.9	36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5
UCLA	#99 (.14)	39% (112)	18.4	34% (131)	2.47 (132)	87	43% (56)	242	3.15 (123)	#68 (.16)	46% (110)	25.3	45% (83)	47% (120)	4.45 (123)	68.9	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5
UCLA	#99 (.14)	39% (112)		34% (131)	2.47 (132)	87	43% (56)	242	3.15 (123)	#68 (.16)	46% (110)		45% (83)	47% (120)	4.45 (123)	68.9	1.4	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Offense	13	26.2	22.6	44.9%	4.38	0.8	19	307	103	204	3.7	44%	56%	44%	46%	16%	.2
UCLA Defense	12	25.3	24.3	45.9%	4.45	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	45%	47%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Defense	13	16.9	18.8	38.9%	3.32	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	36%	42%	19%	.08
UCLA Offense	12	18.4	16	39%	3.15	1.4	18	329	87	242	3.1	41%	59%	34%	43%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Minnesota	13	29:13	18.5	45%	90%	4.5	35.6	0.8	1.5	4.4	1.8	2	28.6
UCLA	12	31:07	18	43%	50%	8.2	68.9	1.4	1.1	5.3	1.8	2	27.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Offense	13	44% (111)	44% (65)	28.2	102.9	3.7	17 (84)	.11 (80)	2.7 (119)	73% (69)	10% (80)	0.88 (113)
UCLA Defense	12	43% (2)	45% (83)	-	-	-	-	.05 (30)	2.92 (52)	78% (101)	10% (68)	0.72 (2)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Defense	13	50% (63)	36% (8)	-	-	-	-	.02 (19)	2.71 (22)	74% (69)	9% (90)	0.95 (50)
UCLA Offense	12	41% (122)	34% (131)	28	86.9	3.1	4 (133)	-.05 (129)	2.47 (132)	70% (87)	10% (85)	0.94 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Offense	13	56% (25)	46% (29)	19.5	29.2	204.1	7	10.5	18 (68)	5 (6)	.27 (58)	1.4 (129)	30% (46)	31% (80)	.32 (76)	6% (70)	2 (75)
UCLA Defense	12	57% (132)	47% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.26 (82)	1.4 (15)	30% (100)	33% (106)	.31 (70)	8% (8)	2 (53)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Defense	13	50% (71)	42% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.15 (27)	1.3 (6)	33% (43)	26% (16)	.15 (10)	10% (1)	1.8 (20)
UCLA Offense	12	59% (12)	43% (56)	21.6	33.2	242.2	7.3	11.2	17 (79)	11 (72)	.26 (62)	1.5 (95)	36% (126)	36% (21)	.42 (30)	7% (99)	1.9 (102)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 9.69 UCLA: 2.12

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 10.4 UCLA: -1.3

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 2.12 #61
UCLA's Offense Rating: 16.06 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 12.38 #94
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
UCLA's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCLA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #75
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.6
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.8

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 25
UCLA 17

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 30
UCLA 18

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Minnesota 25
UCLA 18

Total Points: 43

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

UCLA's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	UCLA	17	Minnesota	21	Minnesota -3.5	Minnesota	39.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCLA	0	0	0 Overs
Minnesota	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#32) MINN at (#61) UCLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MINN	UCLA
Power RatePwr	#32	#61
SP+SP+	#27	#75
Perf GradeGrade	#24	#110
OffenseOff	#43	#115
DefenseDef	#25	#91
Spec TeamsST	#1	#88
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#48	#31

Minnesota Notes(11/29) Killed Wisky. R Def all 24 car/36 yds. QB/RB good
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent
(7/30) OL returns 3/5, RB v good, Run game good LY
Minnesota Injury Report

UCLA Notes(12/29) Signed QB Aguilar (Gr, App St)
(12/5) Fired OC Bieniemy after one season
(12/5) Hired IU Co-OC Tino Sunseri
(11/24) Off 3-11 on 3rd, 0-3 4th, 13 pts in L (USC)
(11/18) Garbers bad, Rgame abysmal in Wash L, Def good
(11/13) 3 W's w/ Iowa, Garbers good, Rgame good in W
(11/2) 2 straight Road W's, fighting hard. Garbers good
(10/28) -5.7 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 7 games
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#124) into week 9
(10/19) Hung 35, torched Gers, Garbers great, Rgame bad
(10/18) Has not scored < 17 pts in any game to date
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def good. Hard L to Minn
UCLA Injury Report

Minnesota on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	UCLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#43	#91
SuccessSuc	#39	#110
ExplosiveExp	#122	#10
PPAPPA	#64	#68
PowerPwr	#37	#94
SP+SP+	#79	#44
Pts POPPO	#27	#123
HavocHav	#71	#37

Minnesota Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#74	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#65	#83
Run ExplRExp	#113	#2
PPAExp	#80	#30
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#119	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#53
TackleTak	-	#53

Minnesota Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#29	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#129	#15
PPAExp	#58	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#78	#117
F7 HavocF7	#80	#68
DB HavocDB	#70	#8

UCLA on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	MINN Def
Perf GradePerf	#115	#25
SuccessSuc	#112	#35
ExplosiveExp	#43	#19
PPAPPA	#99	#16
PowerPwr	#103	#14
SP+SP+	#103	#11
Pts POPPO	#123	#23
HavocHav	#96	#18

UCLA Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#132	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#131	#8
Run ExplRExp	#84	#50
PPAExp	#129	#19
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#132	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#73
TackleTak	-	#89

UCLA Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#81	#43
Pass SuccessPSuc	#56	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#6
PPAExp	#62	#27
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#122	#68
F7 HavocF7	#85	#90
DB HavocDB	#99	#1

Program Comparison
UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Minnesota 3.5 (39.0)
Minnesota won at UCLA this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat UCLA last year (21-17)

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)	268	403	67%	2829	18	6	7.0
Drake Lindsey	4	5	80%	50	1	0	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	205	986	10	4.8	80
Marcus Major (Tr)	78	352	3	4.5	40
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	19	123	0	6.5	18
Jordan Nubin	11	19	0	1.7	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	75	863	4	11.5	39
Elijah Spencer	52	685	6	13.2	29
Darius Taylor	54	350	2	6.5	22
Jameson Geers	27	286	4	10.6	23

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Lindenberg	94	5	1	3	6
Maverick Baranowski	65	5	1	1	2
Kerry Brown	63	3	0	0	4
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Smith	27	12	6	10	1
Jack Henderson	44	9	6	1	1
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Walley	42	2	1	1	10
Ethan Robinson (Tr)	42	3	0	0	9
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7

UCLA's OC Eric Bieniemy (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Garbers	235	363	65%	2727	16	11	7.5
Justyn Martin	24	35	69%	179	1	0	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Harden	124	505	2	4.1	40
Keegan Jones	47	179	1	3.8	22
Jalen Berger	48	178	0	3.7	18
Ethan Garbers	83	137	1	1.7	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Moliki Matavao	41	506	2	12.3	35
TJ Harden	40	368	1	9.2	53
Logan Loya	29	348	4	12.0	29
Kwazi Gilmer	31	345	2	11.1	48

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carson Schwesinger	136	9	4	3	3
Kain Medrano	72	11	2	4	4
Oluwafemi Oladejo	57	14	5	6	2
KJ Wallace	49	9	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Oluwafemi Oladejo	57	14	5	6	2
Carson Schwesinger	136	9	4	3	3
Devin Aupiu	15	5	2	1	1
Kain Medrano	72	11	2	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KJ Wallace	49	9	1	1	10
Kaylin Moore (Tr)	37	2	0	1	9
Bryan Addison (Tr)	43	1	0	0	5