Notre Dame at Penn State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Penn State Nittany Lions

Thursday, January 9th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Penn State -1.5 (45.5) (-115) Open: 0.0 | 47.0
Notre Dame 27 - Penn State: 24 (CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl)

Fighting Irish (14 - 2) (13 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (38 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Penn State -0 (SP+ PSU -1)
Projected Score: ND: 25 - PSU: 25 (50)
PSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ND Travel: 1140 miles

Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ND Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Notre Dame at Texas A&M	+3.0	47.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois	-28.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/14	Notre Dame at Purdue	-11.5	45.5	W 66 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)	-27.5	44.0	W 28 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/28	Notre Dame vs Louisville	-6.5	45.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Notre Dame vs Stanford	-22.5	45.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech	-14.0	49.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Notre Dame vs Navy	-14.0	50.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Notre Dame vs Florida State	-25.5	44.5	W 52 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Notre Dame vs Virginia	-20.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Notre Dame vs Army	-14.5	44.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Notre Dame at USC	-6.5	52.5	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Notre Dame vs Indiana	-7.0	50.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Notre Dame vs Georgia	-1.5	46.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Notre Dame vs Penn State	+1.5	45.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Mon 1/20	Notre Dame vs Ohio State	+8.5	45.5	L 23 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Penn State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Penn State at West Virginia	-7.5	48.0	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Penn State vs Bowling Green	-35.5	51.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Penn State vs Kent State	-49.0	58.0	W 56 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Penn State vs Illinois	-19.5	48.0	W 21 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/5	Penn State vs UCLA	-30.0	48.0	W 27 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/12	Penn State at USC	-3.5	51.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Penn State at Wisconsin	-6.5	47.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Penn State vs Ohio State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	Penn State vs Washington	-13.5	48.0	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Penn State at Purdue	-30.0	51.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Penn State at Minnesota	-11.0	45.0	W 26 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/30	Penn State vs Maryland	-26.5	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Penn State vs Oregon	+3.5	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/21	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND	#8 (.35)	49% (9)	42	51% (9)	3.37 (15)	186	48% (19)	247	4.87 (7)	#6 (.04)	35% (7)	17.6	37% (21)	33% (3)	2.97 (11)	48.2	1.3	1.8
PSU	#40 (.25)	46% (25)	31	49% (17)	3.38 (14)	185	43% (53)	215	4.96 (5)	#8 (.04)	33% (3)	20.5	31% (3)	36% (10)	3.09 (15)	43.3	0.6	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Offense	13	42	38.2	49.3%	4.87	1.3	21	433	186	247	5.3	52%	47%	51%	48%	11%	.35
PSU Defense	13	20.5	15.1	33.1%	3.09	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	31%	36%	23%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Defense	13	17.6	17	34.6%	2.97	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	33%	18%	.04
PSU Offense	13	31	34	46.3%	4.96	0.6	23	400	185	215	4.7	50%	49%	49%	43%	11%	.25

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Notre Dame	13	30:48	20.9	45%	59%	5.4	48.2	1.3	1.8	4.8	1.9	4	29.5
Penn State	13	32:30	22.5	41%	77%	5	43.3	0.6	1.8	7.8	3.8	3	33.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Offense	13	52% (45)	51% (9)	35.2	186.3	5.3	28 (25)	.23 (27)	3.37 (15)	72% (83)	7% (10)	0.97 (86)
PSU Defense	13	49% (52)	31% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (7)	2.23 (2)	76% (89)	18% (1)	0.96 (46)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Defense	13	50% (61)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	.07 (29)	2.85 (26)	67% (34)	11% (50)	1.05 (92)
PSU Offense	13	50% (65)	49% (17)	39.6	184.8	4.7	26 (30)	.19 (46)	3.38 (14)	73% (77)	7% (8)	0.85 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Offense	13	47% (85)	48% (19)	17.5	27	246.5	9.1	14.1	31 (14)	9 (40)	.51 (8)	1.8 (16)	28% (10)	37% (19)	.53 (14)	4% (11)	2.1 (60)
PSU Defense	13	50% (77)	36% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (25)	1.7 (94)	39% (2)	26% (19)	.21 (21)	6% (86)	2.1 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Defense	13	49% (67)	33% (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.04 (2)	1.5 (40)	36% (14)	25% (14)	.23 (26)	7% (27)	1.9 (20)
PSU Offense	13	49% (63)	43% (53)	18.9	31.7	215	6.8	11.4	30 (16)	2 (1)	.3 (62)	1.5 (115)	27% (9)	35% (23)	.38 (50)	4% (7)	1.7 (129)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 24.66 #5
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
2024 Talent Rating: 554.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #8
Notre Dame's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 392
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 24.66 Penn State: 24.43

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 23.9 Penn State: 24.6

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.43 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 530.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Notre Dame's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 13 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 7
Record on Road: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 25
Penn State 25

Projected Total Points: 50

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	01/09	Penn State	24	Notre Dame	27	Penn State -1.5	Notre Dame	45.5	Over
2007	09/08	Penn State	31	Notre Dame	10
2006	09/09	Notre Dame	41	Penn State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	1	0	1 Overs
Notre Dame	2	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Notre Dame Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Nat'l Title	Notre Dame vs Ohio State	+8.5	45.5	L 23 - 34
2024	CFP Semifinal	Notre Dame vs Penn State	+1.5	45.5	W 27 - 24
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Notre Dame vs Georgia	-1.5	46.5	W 23 - 10
2024	CFP 1st Round	Notre Dame vs Indiana	-7.0	50.0	W 27 - 17
2023	Sun Bowl	Notre Dame vs Oregon State	-5.5	40.5	W 40 - 8
2022	Gator Bowl	Notre Dame vs South Carolina	-5.0	50.5	W 45 - 38
2021	Fiesta Bowl	Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State	+1.5	45.5	L 35 - 37
2020	CFP Semifinal	Notre Dame vs Alabama	+20.0	66.0	L 14 - 31
2019	World Bowl	Notre Dame vs Iowa State	-4.0	55.0	W 33 - 9
2018	CFP Semifinal	Notre Dame vs Clemson	+10.5	58.0	L 3 - 30

Penn State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Semifinal	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14
2024	CFP 1st Round	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10
2023	Peach Bowl	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38
2022	Rose Bowl	Penn State vs Utah	-1.5	55.5	W 35 - 21
2021	Outback Bowl	Penn State vs Arkansas	+3.5	51.0	L 10 - 24
2019	Cotton Bowl	Penn State vs Memphis	-7.0	59.5	W 53 - 39
2018	Citrus Bowl	Penn State vs Kentucky	-4.5	47.5	L 24 - 27

(#5) ND at (#6) PSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ND	PSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#5	#6
SP+SP+	#8	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#10	#12
OffenseOff	#11	#15
DefenseDef	#10	#16
Spec TeamsST	#5	#62
TalentTal	#8	#11
Blue ChipsBC%	#8	#15

Notre Dame Injury Report

Penn State Injury Report

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	PSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#11	#16
SuccessSuc	#9	#3
ExplosiveExp	#44	#101
PPAPPA	#8	#8
PowerPwr	#24	#7
SP+SP+	#4	#4
Pts POPPO	#7	#15
HavocHav	#7	#2

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#4	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	#9	#3
Run ExplRExp	#86	#46
PPAExp	#27	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#13	-
OL YdsOLY	#15	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#3
TackleTak	-	#81

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#37	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#19	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#16	#94
PPAExp	#8	#25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#59	#10
F7 HavocF7	#10	#1
DB HavocDB	#11	#86

Penn State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	ND Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#10
SuccessSuc	#25	#7
ExplosiveExp	#124	#57
PPAPPA	#40	#6
PowerPwr	#2	#2
SP+SP+	#9	#7
Pts POPPO	#5	#11
HavocHav	#4	#32

Penn State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#21	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#21
Run ExplRExp	#123	#92
PPAExp	#46	#29
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#26
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#18
TackleTak	-	#9

Penn State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#53	#3
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#40
PPAExp	#62	#2
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#89	#15
F7 HavocF7	#8	#50
DB HavocDB	#7	#27

Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Penn State -1.5 (45.5)
Notre Dame won at Penn State this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Penn State in 2024 (27-24)

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard (Tr)	269	403	67%	2861	21	8	7.1
Steven Angeli	24	36	67%	268	3	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	163	1124	17	6.9	98
Riley Leonard (Tr)	184	906	17	4.9	50
Jadarian Price	120	746	7	6.2	70
Aneyas Williams	34	219	2	6.4	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Greathouse	42	592	4	14.1	54
Beaux Collins (Tr)	41	490	3	12.0	53
Mitchell Evans	43	421	3	9.8	33
Jordan Faison	30	356	1	11.9	44

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Kiser	90	5	2	3	1
Xavier Watts	83	4	0	4	9
Drayk Bowen	78	4	1	2	2
Adon Shuler	59	3	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rylie Mills	37	9	8	4	0
Howard Cross III	27	5	4	3	1
Donovan Hinish	34	4	4	4	1
Junior Tuihalamaka	32	6	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Leonard Moore	48	2	1	11
Xavier Watts	83	4	4	9
Christian Gray	35	3	0	9

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	262	394	67%	3327	24	8	8.4
Beau Pribula	26	35	74%	275	5	1	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	220	1108	8	5.0	32
Nicholas Singleton	172	1099	12	6.4	58
Drew Allar	96	302	6	3.1	22
Beau Pribula	38	242	4	6.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Warren	104	1233	8	11.9	38
Harrison Wallace III	47	732	4	15.6	50
Omari Evans	20	403	5	20.2	59
Nicholas Singleton	41	375	5	9.1	27

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1
Zakee Wheatley	86	3	1	0	4
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Dani Dennis-Sutton	40	13	9	9	3
Amin Vanover	21	5	4	3	1
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elliot Washington II	25	1	0	6
Cam Miller	23	3	2	5
A.J. Harris (Tr)	41	3	0	5