USC at Minnesota - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
USC -8.5 (45.5) (-298) Open: -9.5
Minnesota 24 - USC: 17 (Big Ten)

Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (22 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MINN is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Minnesota -3 (SP+ USC -1.5)
Projected Score: USC: 22 - MINN: 25 (47)
USC Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
USC Travel: 1527 miles, 2 hrs behind

Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (29 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	USC vs LSU	+4.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/7	USC vs Utah State	-30.5	62.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	USC at Michigan	-4.0	44.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/28	USC vs Wisconsin	-14.0	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/5	USC at Minnesota	-8.5	45.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	USC vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/19	USC at Maryland	-6.5	56.5	L 28 - 29	O	N
Fri 10/25	USC vs Rutgers	-14.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/2	USC at Washington	-2.0	55.0	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	USC vs Nebraska	-6.5	51.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	USC at UCLA	-5.0	53.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/30	USC vs Notre Dame	+6.5	52.5	L 35 - 49	O	N
Fri 12/27	USC vs Texas A&M	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Minnesota vs North Carolina	+2.0	52.5	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Minnesota vs Rhode Island	-27.5	47.5	W 48 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Minnesota vs Nevada	-17.5	44.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Minnesota vs Iowa	+3.0	34.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Minnesota at Michigan	+10.5	34.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Minnesota vs USC	+8.5	45.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Minnesota at UCLA	-3.5	39.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Minnesota vs Maryland	-6.0	45.0	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Minnesota at Illinois	-2.5	47.0	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Minnesota at Rutgers	-6.5	44.5	L 19 - 26	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Minnesota vs Penn State	+11.0	45.0	L 25 - 26	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Minnesota at Wisconsin	-1.5	40.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Fri 1/3	Minnesota vs Virginia Tech	-10.0	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	30.2	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	24.1	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)	26.2	44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)	16.9	36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	30.2	21.8	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24
MINN Defense	13	16.9	16.6	38.9%	3.32	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	36%	42%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	24.1	23.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18
MINN Offense	13	26.2	29	44.9%	4.38	0.8	19	307	103	204	3.7	44%	56%	44%	46%	16%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7
Minnesota	13	29:13	18.5	45%	90%	4.5	35.6	0.8	1.5	4.4	1.8	2	28.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)
MINN Defense	13	50% (63)	36% (8)	-	-	-	-	.02 (19)	2.71 (22)	74% (69)	9% (90)	0.95 (50)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)
MINN Offense	13	44% (111)	44% (65)	28.2	102.9	3.7	17 (84)	.11 (80)	2.7 (119)	73% (69)	10% (80)	0.88 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)
MINN Defense	13	50% (71)	42% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.15 (27)	1.3 (6)	33% (43)	26% (16)	.15 (10)	10% (1)	1.8 (20)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)
MINN Offense	13	56% (25)	46% (29)	19.5	29.2	204.1	7	10.5	18 (68)	5 (6)	.27 (58)	1.4 (129)	30% (46)	31% (80)	.32 (76)	6% (70)	2 (75)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 7.42 #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
2024 Talent Rating: 882.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41% #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.42 Minnesota: 12.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 11.9 Minnesota: 10.4

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 12.545 #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
2024 Talent Rating: 824.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 25
USC 22

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 26
USC 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Minnesota 26
USC 22

Total Points: 48

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.6

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Minnesota	24	USC	17	USC -8.5	Minnesota	45.5	Under
2011	09/03	USC	19	Minnesota	17
2010	09/18	Minnesota	21	USC	32

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	1	1	0 Overs
USC	2	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#37) USC at (#32) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	MINN
Power RatePwr	#37	#32
SP+SP+	#23	#27
Perf GradeGrade	#44	#24
OffenseOff	#36	#43
DefenseDef	#74	#25
Spec TeamsST	#65	#1
TalentTal	#17	#27
Blue ChipsBC%	#16	#48

USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season

Minnesota Notes
(11/29) Killed Wisky. R Def all 24 car/36 yds. QB/RB good
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent

USC on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MINN Def
Perf GradePerf	#36	#25
SuccessSuc	#11	#35
ExplosiveExp	#91	#19
PPAPPA	#41	#16
PowerPwr	#60	#14
SP+SP+	#15	#11
Pts POPPO	#85	#23
HavocHav	#101	#18

USC Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#6	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#8
Run ExplRExp	#106	#50
PPAExp	#21	#19
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#73
TackleTak	-	#89

USC Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#43
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#6
PPAExp	#74	#27
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#114	#68
F7 HavocF7	#24	#90
DB HavocDB	#134	#1

Minnesota on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#43	#74
SuccessSuc	#39	#94
ExplosiveExp	#122	#24
PPAPPA	#64	#78
PowerPwr	#37	#74
SP+SP+	#79	#48
Pts POPPO	#27	#49
HavocHav	#71	#105

Minnesota Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#74	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#65	#78
Run ExplRExp	#113	#77
PPAExp	#80	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#119	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#120
TackleTak	-	#19

Minnesota Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#29	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#129	#4
PPAExp	#58	#49
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#78	#85
F7 HavocF7	#80	#127
DB HavocDB	#70	#42

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 66° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 6
USC 8.5 (45.5)
Minnesota won vs USC this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat USC last year (24-17)

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Miller Moss	233	362	64%	2555	18	9	7.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)	101	169	60%	1201	11	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Quinten Joyner	63	478	3	7.6	75
Bryan Jackson	36	188	1	5.2	23
A'Marion Peterson	16	65	1	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	52	764	3	14.7	70
Ja'Kobi Lane	43	525	12	12.2	33
Zachariah Branch	47	503	1	10.7	42
Kyron Ware-Hudson	38	462	3	12.2	39

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Akili Arnold (Tr)	59	1	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braylan Shelby	28	5	3	2	1
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)	27	0	0	0	5
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)	268	403	67%	2829	18	6	7.0
Drake Lindsey	4	5	80%	50	1	0	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	205	986	10	4.8	80
Marcus Major (Tr)	78	352	3	4.5	40
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	19	123	0	6.5	18
Jordan Nubin	11	19	0	1.7	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	75	863	4	11.5	39
Elijah Spencer	52	685	6	13.2	29
Darius Taylor	54	350	2	6.5	22
Jameson Geers	27	286	4	10.6	23

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Lindenberg	94	5	1	3	6
Maverick Baranowski	65	5	1	1	2
Kerry Brown	63	3	0	0	4
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Smith	27	12	6	10	1
Jack Henderson	44	9	6	1	1
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Walley	42	2	1	1	10
Ethan Robinson (Tr)	42	3	0	0	9
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7