Nevada at Minnesota - 2024 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo   Nevada Wolf Pack at Minnesota Golden Gophers  Minnesota logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -17.5 (44.5) (-800)  Open: -14.5 | 43.5
Minnesota 27 - Nevada: 0

 
Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MINN 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Minnesota -27  (SP+ MINN -26)

Projected Score: NEV: 9 - MINN: 36 (45)
MINN Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
NEV Travel: 1404 miles, 2 hrs behind
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Nevada vs SMU+28.055.5L 24 - 29UY
Sat 8/31 Nevada at Troy+7.544.5W 28 - 26OY
Sat 9/7 Nevada vs Georgia Southern-1.556.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 9/14 Nevada at Minnesota+17.544.5L 0 - 27UN
Sat 9/21 Nevada vs Eastern Washington-13.554.5W 49 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Nevada at San José State+7.051.5L 31 - 35OY
Sat 10/12 Nevada vs Oregon State+3.047.0W 42 - 37OY
Fri 10/18 Nevada vs Fresno State+3.050.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Nevada at Hawai'i+2.542.0L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 Nevada vs Colorado State+2.045.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Nevada at Boise State+23.560.5L 21 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Nevada vs Air Force-3.044.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 11/30 Nevada at UNLV+17.554.5L 14 - 38UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Minnesota vs North Carolina+2.052.5L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/7 Minnesota vs Rhode Island-27.547.5W 48 - 0OY
Sat 9/14 Minnesota vs Nevada-17.544.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Minnesota vs Iowa+3.034.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 9/28 Minnesota at Michigan+10.534.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/5 Minnesota vs USC+8.545.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 10/12 Minnesota at UCLA-3.539.0W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Minnesota vs Maryland-6.045.0W 48 - 23OY
Sat 11/2 Minnesota at Illinois-2.547.0W 25 - 17UY
Sat 11/9 Minnesota at Rutgers-6.544.5L 19 - 26ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Minnesota vs Penn State+11.045.0L 25 - 26OY
Fri 11/29 Minnesota at Wisconsin-1.540.5W 24 - 7UY
Fri 1/3 Minnesota vs Virginia Tech-10.043.5W 24 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#128 (.04)35% (129)17.639% (116)2.67 (127)12532% (132)1752.54 (132)#101 (.24)46% (122)27.547% (110)47% (126)3.83 (71)58.51.71.3
MINN#118 (.09)41% (87)2344% (53)3.15 (61)15836% (116)1433.85 (73)#93 (.22)43% (75)22.945% (90)41% (63)4.67 (129)27.11.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MINN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1217.615.535.4%2.541.7173001251753.455%45%39%32%22%.04
MINN Defense1322.91342.6%4.671.5 - - - - - 47%51%45%41%11%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1227.529.846.5%3.831.3 - - - - - 51%48%47%47%14%.24
MINN Offense132330.140.5%3.851.3183011581434.159%40%44%36%13%.09

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1230:1916.730%43%6.858.51.71.341.3326.8
Minnesota1331:4918.235%82%327.11.31.53.21.6029
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1255% (33)39% (116)36.9124.83.414 (106).08 (107)2.67 (127)55% (132)16% (133)0.98 (78)
MINN Defense1347% (34)45% (90) - - - - .2 (102)3.15 (79)80% (109)7% (132)0.99 (63)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1251% (81)47% (110) - - - - .19 (97)3.28 (107)67% (30)9% (99)1.07 (104)
MINN Offense1359% (12)44% (53)38.8157.54.113 (108).11 (92)3.15 (61)75% (52)7% (13)0.83 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1245% (102)32% (132)15.928.8175.26.1116 (133)12 (85).02 (132)1.5 (88)34% (107)26% (109).06 (132)6% (89)1.7 (130)
MINN Defense1351% (94)41% (63) - - - - - - 12 (37).29 (83)1.6 (73)30% (106)30% (71).42 (112)5% (116)2.2 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1248% (52)47% (126) - - - - - - 9 (87).32 (99)1.6 (83)30% (102)30% (68).28 (50)5% (99)2 (37)
MINN Offense1340% (121)36% (116)12.624143.4611.416 (92)11 (68).1 (123)1.6 (53)29% (26)27% (99).16 (117)6% (52)1.9 (106)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.37  #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53  #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97  #108
2024 Talent Rating: 214.00  #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2  #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.37   Minnesota: 12.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.2   Minnesota: 10.4




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 12.545  #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19  #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27  #14
2024 Talent Rating: 417.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4  #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Minnesota 36
Nevada 9


Projected Total Points: 45
Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Minnesota27Nevada0Minnesota -17.5Minnesota44.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota110 Overs
Nevada001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#109) NEV at (#32) MINN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNEVMINN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #109 #32
SP+SP+ #117 #27
Perf GradeGrade #94 #24
OffenseOff #39 #43
DefenseDef #119 #25
Spec TeamsST #133 #1
TalentTal #111 #29
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #48
Nevada Notes
(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report
Minnesota Notes
(11/29) Killed Wisky. R Def all 24 car/36 yds. QB/RB good
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent
(7/30) OL returns 3/5, RB v good, Run game good LY
Minnesota Injury Report
Nevada on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
NEV OffMINN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #39 #25
SuccessSuc #129 #75
ExplosiveExp #110 #75
PPAPPA #128 #93
PowerPwr #46 #14
SP+SP+ #106 #11
Pts POPPO #132 #129
HavocHav #131 #131
Nevada Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
NEV OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #70 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #116 #90
Run ExplRExp #78 #63
PPAExp #107 #102
Run BlockR Blk #50 -
OL YdsOLY #127 #79
Stuff RateStuff #117 #91
TackleTak -  #89
Nevada Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
NEV OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #23 #43
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #63
Pass ExplPExl #88 #73
PPAExp #132 #83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #80 #68
F7 HavocF7 #133 #132
DB HavocDB #89 #116
Minnesota on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatMINN OffNEV Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #119
SuccessSuc #87 #122
ExplosiveExp #128 #100
PPAPPA #118 #101
PowerPwr #37 #108
SP+SP+ #79 #113
Pts POPPO #73 #71
HavocHav #14 #112
Minnesota Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
MINN OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #74 #132
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #110
Run ExplRExp #127 #104
PPAExp #92 #97
Run BlockR Blk #35 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #107
Stuff RateStuff #40 #90
TackleTak -  #131
Minnesota Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatMINN OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #13 #75
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #126
Pass ExplPExl #53 #83
PPAExp #123 #99
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78 #58
F7 HavocF7 #13 #99
DB HavocDB #52 #99
Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Minnesota -17.5 (44.5)
Minnesota won vs Nevada this year (27-0)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Nevada in 2024 (27-0)

  
NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis21131268%22901677.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)182572%239119.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brendon Lewis15777584.967
Savion Red (Tr)11968785.869
Pat Garwo III5524654.525
Sean Dollars4716503.526
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Smith62849713.762
Cortez Braham56724412.957
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Drue Watts655103
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Stone Combs583100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Henry Ikahihifo438430
Kristopher Ross296332
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Coats Jr.4110010
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Chad Brown475006

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)26840367%28291867.0
Drake Lindsey4580%501010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor205986104.880
Marcus Major (Tr)7835234.540
Jaren Mangham (Tr)1912306.518
Jordan Nubin111901.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Jackson75863411.539
Elijah Spencer52685613.229
Darius Taylor5435026.522
Jameson Geers27286410.623

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Lindenberg945136
Maverick Baranowski655112
Kerry Brown633004
Danny Striggow526561
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith27126101
Jack Henderson449611
Danny Striggow526561
Jah Joyner326597
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Walley4221110
Ethan Robinson (Tr)423009
Jah Joyner326597