Penn State at Wisconsin - 2024 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo (#2)Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -6.5 (47.0) (-238)  Open: -6.5
Penn State 28 - Wisconsin: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
PSU coming off BYE
WIS is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -18.5   (SP+ PSU -21.5)

Projected Score: PSU: 33 - WIS: 15 (48)
PSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
PSU Travel: 614 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Badgers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (21 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia-7.548.0W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/7 Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.551.5W 34 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Penn State vs Kent State-49.058.0W 56 - 0UY
Sat 9/28 Penn State vs Illinois-19.548.0W 21 - 7UN
Sat 10/5 Penn State vs UCLA-30.048.0W 27 - 11UN
Sat 10/12 Penn State at USC-3.551.5W 33 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Penn State at Wisconsin-6.547.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 11/2 Penn State vs Ohio State+3.047.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 11/9 Penn State vs Washington-13.548.0W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/16 Penn State at Purdue-30.051.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 11/23 Penn State at Minnesota-11.045.0W 26 - 25ON
Sat 11/30 Penn State vs Maryland-26.550.5W 44 - 7OY
Sat 12/7 Penn State vs Oregon+3.551.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 12/21 Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14UY
Thu 1/9 Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Wisconsin vs Western Michigan-24.057.0W 28 - 14UN
Sat 9/7 Wisconsin vs South Dakota-17.544.5W 27 - 13UN
Sat 9/14 Wisconsin vs Alabama+15.551.0L 10 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Wisconsin at USC+14.050.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/5 Wisconsin vs Purdue-12.044.5W 52 - 6OY
Sat 10/12 Wisconsin at Rutgers+1.043.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Wisconsin vs Northwestern-9.542.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/26 Wisconsin vs Penn State+6.547.0L 13 - 28UN
Sat 11/2 Wisconsin at Iowa+2.540.0L 10 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Wisconsin vs Oregon+13.549.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Wisconsin at Nebraska+1.540.5L 25 - 44ON
Fri 11/29 Wisconsin vs Minnesota+1.540.5L 7 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)33.152% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)16.539% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
WIS#97 (.14)42% (73)22.646% (39)3.16 (46)15438% (107)1974.02 (57)#80 (.18)43% (88)23.145% (86)42% (81)4.17 (105)37.51.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
WIS#97 (.14)42% (73)46% (39)3.16 (46)15438% (107)1974.02 (57)#80 (.18)43% (88)45% (86)42% (81)4.17 (105)37.51.51



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense1633.13451.3%4.690.8203851762095.354%46%52%51%10%.32
WIS Defense1223.120.443.4%4.171 - - - - - 54%45%45%42%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1616.51837.9%3.221.3 - - - - - 48%52%39%37%18%.05
WIS Offense1222.621.442.2%4.021.5193511541974.451%49%46%38%17%.14

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1626:5120.448%70%4.441.40.81.35.52.3428.9
Wisconsin1229:2118.836%60%5.337.51.513.51.4027.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1654% (38)52% (9)33.2176.25.331 (17).24 (20)3.42 (10)76% (51)7% (8)0.92 (90)
WIS Defense1254% (110)45% (86) - - - - .15 (81)3.27 (105)68% (36)7% (130)0.97 (60)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1648% (43)39% (27) - - - - -.01 (12)2.37 (3)75% (75)12% (26)0.92 (42)
WIS Offense1251% (70)46% (39)34.9154.14.419 (73).12 (75)3.16 (46)75% (58)8% (37)0.8 (129)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1646% (95)51% (4)16.724.3208.88.612.527 (20)9 (48).41 (11)1.5 (107)26% (3)35% (31).46 (20)3% (5)2 (85)
WIS Defense1245% (22)42% (81) - - - - - - 4 (125).25 (76)1.3 (5)28% (123)28% (32).24 (42)5% (92)1.8 (19)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1652% (96)37% (25) - - - - - - 15 (18).1 (16)1.7 (91)36% (14)27% (25).2 (29)6% (57)2.1 (95)
WIS Offense1249% (65)38% (107)17.330.4196.76.511.414 (108)10 (63).16 (102)1.5 (100)30% (34)27% (111).15 (128)9% (132)1.8 (122)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26   Wisconsin: 6.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6   Wisconsin: 3.0




Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 6.08 #45
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #29
Wisconsin's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Wisconsin's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 33
Wisconsin 15


Total Points: 48

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.4
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.4

Wisconsin's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Wisconsin13Penn State28Penn StatePenn State -6.5Penn State47.0Under
202109/04Wisconsin10Penn State16Penn StateWisconsin -5.5Penn State48.5Under
201811/10Penn State22Wisconsin10Penn StatePenn State -7.5Penn State52.0Under
201612/03Penn State38Wisconsin31Penn StateWisconsin -1Penn State47.0Over
201311/30Wisconsin24Penn State31Penn StateWisconsin -23.5Penn State0
201211/24Penn State24Wisconsin21Penn State
201111/26Wisconsin45Penn State7Wisconsin
200810/11Wisconsin7Penn State48Penn State
200710/13Penn State38Wisconsin7Penn State
200611/04Wisconsin13Penn State3Wisconsin
200511/05Penn State35Wisconsin14Penn State
200409/25Wisconsin16Penn State3Wisconsin
200310/04Penn State23Wisconsin30Wisconsin
200210/05Wisconsin31Penn State34Penn State
200109/22Penn State6Wisconsin18Wisconsin
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wisconsin501 Overs
Penn State1053 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 72 - 31 - 21 - 1
Road Teams7 - 83 - 21 - 12 - 1

(#6) Penn State Info
Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.69 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.22 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Penn State has won 6 straight
Penn State has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 6 - 0 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Penn State Highlights
Penn State has Really Good Running Game (#38)
Penn State offense is efficent (#25)
Penn State has a top Offensive Line (#13)
Penn State offense is good in red zone (#42)
Penn State offense is good on 3rd downs
Penn State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#3)

Penn State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Penn State has a really good defense (#6)
Penn State defense is really good in red zone (#5)
Penn State has a good run defense (#42)
Penn State has a good pass defense (#2)
Penn State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#50)
Penn State Defensive Line is very good (#12)
Penn State Front 7 is disruptive (#28)
Penn State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Penn State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Penn State Deficiencies
Penn State offense is not Explosive (#114)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatWISPSU
OverallOver#55#10
OffenseOff#59#15
DefenseDef#66#12
Special TeamsST#14#52
PassingPass#82#6
RushingRush#51#15
Run BlockRBLK#33#46
Pass BlockPBLK#6#76
Route RunningWR Rt#70#16
TacklingTkl#12#70
Run DefenseR Def#98#20
Pass Rush DefPRush#58#10
Coverage DefCov#31#15

Rematch from Week 9
Penn State 6.5 (47.0)
Penn State won at Wisconsin this year (28-13)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Wisconsin last year (28-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PSU | WIS
Depth Chart: PSU | WIS
Rosters: PSU | WIS
(#45) Wisconsin Info
Power Rating: 6.08 #45
Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #29
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Wisconsin has won 3 straight
Wisconsin has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 4 (2 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Wisconsin Notes
(12/6) Hired OC Jeff Grimes (Bay/KU)
(11/29) How does Fickell address the offense for '25
(11/29) 5 str L's to finish. Offense is untenable. Bad vibes
(11/29) 22 year bowl streak over, was CFB longest
(11/23) 4 str L's, Locke good, Def torched by Nebraska
(11/18) Fight w/ Oreg, Locke awful, Rgame bad, OC fired
(11/17) OC Longo fired after Oregon loss
(11/2) Locke is awful. Rgame avg at best. Longo Off bad
(10/27) Rgame awful vs PSU, Lock bad INT. < 300 yds
(10/22) Def stop rate is 75% (#10) into PSU/Iowa games

Wisconsin Highlights
Wisconsin defense does not give up big plays (#98)

Wisconsin Deficiencies
Wisconsin offense is not Explosive (#76)
Wisconsin pass game is really bad (#30)
Wisconsin does not Sack the QB (#13)
Wisconsin has a bad defensive line (#72)
Wisconsin has a bad red zone defense (#11)


  
Penn State's OC Andy Kotelnicki
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Beau Pribula263574%275517.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Beau Pribula3824246.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler Warren1041233811.938
Harrison Wallace III47732415.650
Omari Evans20403520.259
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127

View Penn State's Full Roster
Penn State's DC Tom Allen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Reed957312
Kobe King878311
Zakee Wheatley863104
Abdul Carter62241294
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Abdul Carter62241294
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Amin Vanover215431
Jaylen Reed957312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
Cam Miller233025
A.J. Harris (Tr)413005

Wisconsin's OC Phil Longo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braedyn Locke16429655%193613106.5
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)436863%422106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)190864104.555
Darrion Dupree7931714.032
Cade Yacamelli3327428.345
Chez Mellusi5623234.121
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vinny Anthony39672417.263
Will Pauling4240739.728
Trech Kekahuna25339213.669
CJ Williams16248215.550

View Wisconsin's Full Roster
Wisconsin's DC Mike Tressel
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler711006
Christian Alliegro665301
Preston Zachman583004
Jake Chaney554120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Hills (Tr)266321
Christian Alliegro665301
John Pius (Tr)214330
Sebastian Cheeks (Tr)122200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler711006
Ben Barten220015
Nyzier Fourqurean512015