Penn State at Wisconsin - 2024 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo   Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers  Wisconsin logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -6.5 (47.0) (-238)  Open: -6.5
Penn State 28 - Wisconsin: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PSU coming off BYE
WIS is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -18.5  (SP+ PSU -21.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 32 - WIS: 14 (46)
PSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
PSU Travel: 614 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Badgers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 13 - 22 (16 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia-7.548.0W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/7 Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.551.5W 34 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Penn State vs Kent State-49.058.0W 56 - 0UY
Sat 9/28 Penn State vs Illinois-19.548.0W 21 - 7UN
Sat 10/5 Penn State vs UCLA-30.048.0W 27 - 11UN
Sat 10/12 Penn State at USC-3.551.5W 33 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Penn State at Wisconsin-6.547.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 11/2 Penn State vs Ohio State+3.047.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 11/9 Penn State vs Washington-13.548.0W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/16 Penn State at Purdue-30.051.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 11/23 Penn State at Minnesota-11.045.0W 26 - 25ON
Sat 11/30 Penn State vs Maryland-26.550.5W 44 - 7OY
Sat 12/7 Penn State vs Oregon+3.551.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 12/21 Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14UY
Thu 1/9 Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Wisconsin vs Western Michigan-24.057.0W 28 - 14UN
Sat 9/7 Wisconsin vs South Dakota-17.544.5W 27 - 13UN
Sat 9/14 Wisconsin vs Alabama+15.551.0L 10 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Wisconsin at USC+14.050.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/5 Wisconsin vs Purdue-12.044.5W 52 - 6OY
Sat 10/12 Wisconsin at Rutgers+1.043.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Wisconsin vs Northwestern-9.542.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/26 Wisconsin vs Penn State+6.547.0L 13 - 28UN
Sat 11/2 Wisconsin at Iowa+2.540.0L 10 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Wisconsin vs Oregon+13.549.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Wisconsin at Nebraska+1.540.5L 25 - 44ON
Fri 11/29 Wisconsin vs Minnesota+1.540.5L 7 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)3149% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)20.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
WIS#84 (.16)44% (50)12.850% (15)3.52 (7)15138% (100)1914.02 (55)#17 (.1)40% (47)21.640% (41)42% (72)2.98 (13)44.21.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WIS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.646.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25
WIS Defense1321.618.340.4%2.981.2 - - - - - 51%48%40%42%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.233.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
WIS Offense1312.815.643.6%4.021.2183421511914.747%52%50%38%15%.16

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
Wisconsin1326:5318.345%28%5.144.21.21.25.82.2129.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)
WIS Defense1351% (78)40% (41) - - - - .09 (38)3.06 (57)64% (20)11% (42)0.96 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
WIS Offense1347% (92)50% (15)32.3151.34.721 (54).22 (31)3.52 (7)74% (67)8% (26)0.89 (116)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)
WIS Defense1348% (51)42% (72) - - - - - - 12 (37).19 (21)1.4 (15)32% (63)28% (36).27 (43)6% (61)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
WIS Offense1352% (41)38% (100)19.533191.15.89.811 (117)5 (6).13 (116)1.4 (132)30% (34)34% (42).28 (85)7% (106)1.7 (132)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26  #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70  #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50  #7
2024 Talent Rating: 530.00  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42%  #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6  #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5  #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26   Wisconsin: 6.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6   Wisconsin: 3.0




Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 6.08  #45
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 19.90  #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 9.97  #73
2024 Talent Rating: 440.00  #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 18  #29
Wisconsin's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Wisconsin's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0  #60
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #100
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 32
Wisconsin 14

Projected Total Points: 46
Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 12.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 15.6
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.3

Wisconsin's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Wisconsin13Penn State28Penn State -6.5Penn State47.0Under
202109/04Wisconsin10Penn State16Wisconsin -5.5Penn State48.5Under
201811/10Penn State22Wisconsin10Penn State -7.5Penn State52.0Under
201612/03Penn State38Wisconsin31Wisconsin -1Penn State47.0Over
201311/30Wisconsin24Penn State31Wisconsin -23.5Penn State0
201211/24Penn State24Wisconsin21
201111/26Wisconsin45Penn State7
200810/11Wisconsin7Penn State48
200710/13Penn State38Wisconsin7
200611/04Wisconsin13Penn State3
200511/05Penn State35Wisconsin14
200409/25Wisconsin16Penn State3
200310/04Penn State23Wisconsin30
200210/05Wisconsin31Penn State34
200109/22Penn State6Wisconsin18
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wisconsin501 Overs
Penn State1053 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 72 - 31 - 21 - 1
Road Teams7 - 83 - 21 - 12 - 1

(#6) PSU at (#45) WIS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUWIS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #6 #45
SP+SP+ #5 #60
Perf GradeGrade #12 #78
OffenseOff #15 #72
DefenseDef #16 #86
Spec TeamsST #62 #15
TalentTal #11 #23
Blue ChipsBC% #15 #29
Wisconsin Notes
(12/16) Signed QB Billy Edwards (MD)
(12/6) Hired OC Jeff Grimes (Bay/KU)
(11/29) How does Fickell address the offense for '25
(11/29) 5 str L's to finish. Offense is untenable. Bad vibes
(11/29) 22 year bowl streak over, was CFB longest
(11/23) 4 str L's, Locke good, Def torched by Nebraska
(11/18) Fight w/ Oreg, Locke awful, Rgame bad, OC fired
(11/17) OC Longo fired after Oregon loss
(11/2) Locke is awful. Rgame avg at best. Longo Off bad
(10/27) Rgame awful vs PSU, Lock bad INT. < 300 yds
(10/22) Def stop rate is 75% (#10) into PSU/Iowa games
(10/19) Off enough, Def great vs NW. Locke meh
Wisconsin Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffWIS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #86
SuccessSuc #25 #47
ExplosiveExp #124 #19
PPAPPA #40 #17
PowerPwr #2 #73
SP+SP+ #9 #22
Pts POPPO #5 #13
HavocHav #4 #44
Penn State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffWIS Def
Run GameRun #21 #123
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #41
Run ExplRExp #123 #44
PPAExp #46 #38
Run BlockR Blk #57 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #57
Stuff RateStuff #2 #54
TackleTak -  #13
Penn State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffWIS Def
Pass GamePass #6 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #72
Pass ExplPExl #115 #15
PPAExp #62 #21
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #89 #66
F7 HavocF7 #8 #42
DB HavocDB #7 #61
Wisconsin on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatWIS OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #16
SuccessSuc #50 #3
ExplosiveExp #131 #101
PPAPPA #84 #8
PowerPwr #67 #7
SP+SP+ #100 #4
Pts POPPO #55 #15
HavocHav #54 #2
Wisconsin Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
WIS OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #71 #27
Run SuccessRSuc #15 #3
Run ExplRExp #116 #46
PPAExp #31 #7
Run BlockR Blk #41 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #2
Stuff RateStuff #5 #3
TackleTak -  #81
Wisconsin Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatWIS OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #102 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #100 #10
Pass ExplPExl #132 #94
PPAExp #116 #25
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6 #10
F7 HavocF7 #26 #1
DB HavocDB #106 #86
Program Comparison
WIS 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
Penn State 6.5 (47.0)
Penn State won at Wisconsin this year (28-13)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Wisconsin in 2024 (28-13)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Beau Pribula263574%275517.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Beau Pribula3824246.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler Warren1041233811.938
Harrison Wallace III47732415.650
Omari Evans20403520.259
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Reed957312
Kobe King878311
Zakee Wheatley863104
Abdul Carter62241294
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Abdul Carter62241294
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Amin Vanover215431
Jaylen Reed957312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
Cam Miller233025
A.J. Harris (Tr)413005

WIS's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braedyn Locke16429655%193613106.5
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)436863%422106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)190864104.555
Darrion Dupree7931714.032
Cade Yacamelli3327428.345
Chez Mellusi5623234.121
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vinny Anthony39672417.263
Will Pauling4240739.728
Trech Kekahuna25339213.669
CJ Williams16248215.550

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Mike Tressel (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler711006
Christian Alliegro665301
Preston Zachman583004
Jake Chaney554120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Hills (Tr)266321
Christian Alliegro665301
John Pius (Tr)214330
Sebastian Cheeks (Tr)122200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler711006
Ben Barten220015
Nyzier Fourqurean512015