Penn State at Oregon - 2024 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo   Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks  Oregon logo
Saturday, December 7th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Oregon -3.5 (51.5) (-170)  Open: -3.5 | 49.5
Oregon 45 - Penn State: 37  (Big Ten Championship)

 
Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ORE 2nd straight Home Game
PSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -1.5  (SP+ ORE -1)
Projected Score: PSU: 26 - ORE: 28 (54)
ORE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 444 miles
Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia-7.548.0W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/7 Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.551.5W 34 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Penn State vs Kent State-49.058.0W 56 - 0UY
Sat 9/28 Penn State vs Illinois-19.548.0W 21 - 7UN
Sat 10/5 Penn State vs UCLA-30.048.0W 27 - 11UN
Sat 10/12 Penn State at USC-3.551.5W 33 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Penn State at Wisconsin-6.547.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 11/2 Penn State vs Ohio State+3.047.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 11/9 Penn State vs Washington-13.548.0W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/16 Penn State at Purdue-30.051.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 11/23 Penn State at Minnesota-11.045.0W 26 - 25ON
Sat 11/30 Penn State vs Maryland-26.550.5W 44 - 7OY
Sat 12/7 Penn State vs Oregon+3.551.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 12/21 Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14UY
Thu 1/9 Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Oregon's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Oregon vs Idaho-36.5
Sat 9/7 Oregon vs Boise State-17.560.5W 37 - 34ON
Sat 9/14 Oregon at Oregon State-16.050.0W 49 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Oregon at UCLA-23.554.5W 34 - 13UN
Fri 10/4 Oregon vs Michigan State-22.553.0W 31 - 10UN
Sat 10/12 Oregon vs Ohio State+3.554.5W 32 - 31OY
Fri 10/18 Oregon at Purdue-30.061.0W 35 - 0UY
Sat 10/26 Oregon vs Illinois-22.554.0W 38 - 9UY
Sat 11/2 Oregon at Michigan-14.545.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/9 Oregon vs Maryland-24.058.0W 39 - 18UN
Sat 11/16 Oregon at Wisconsin-13.549.5W 16 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 Oregon vs Washington-17.550.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 12/7 Oregon vs Penn State-3.551.5W 45 - 37OY
Wed 1/1 Oregon vs Ohio State+2.555.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)3149% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)20.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
ORE#2 (.49)57% (1)36.957% (2)3.69 (4)17157% (1)3185.11 (1)#19 (.1)38% (30)17.939% (35)39% (27)3.33 (24)59.10.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.646.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25
ORE Defense1417.916.838.4%3.331.1 - - - - - 39%59%39%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.233.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
ORE Offense1436.943.156.9%5.110.5244901713185.944%56%57%57%9%.49

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
Oregon1428:3124.451%74%6.559.10.51.14.82.4129.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)
ORE Defense1439% (2)39% (35) - - - - .08 (32)3.08 (60)55% (6)9% (96)0.97 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
ORE Offense1444% (107)57% (2)29.1171.45.932 (10).37 (2)3.69 (4)78% (32)6% (3)1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)
ORE Defense1459% (132)39% (27) - - - - - - 11 (53).16 (16)1.5 (45)32% (70)30% (60).33 (78)8% (13)2 (45)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
ORE Offense1456% (22)57% (1)2633.7318.39.412.244 (1)5 (6).59 (3)1.5 (112)24% (3)43% (3).73 (2)3% (4)2 (70)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26  #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70  #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50  #7
2024 Talent Rating: 530.00  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42%  #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6  #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5  #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26   Oregon: 25.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6   Oregon: 26.0




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.7  #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52  #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01  #19
2024 Talent Rating: 619.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 54  #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0  #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8  #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3  #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 28
Penn State 26

Projected Total Points: 54
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Penn State24Oregon30Penn State -4.5Oregon52.5Over
202412/07Oregon45Penn State37Oregon -3.5Oregon51.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon222 Overs
Penn State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#6) PSU at (#2) ORE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUORE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #6 #2
SP+SP+ #5 #3
Perf GradeGrade #12 #4
OffenseOff #15 #9
DefenseDef #16 #4
Spec TeamsST #62 #26
TalentTal #11 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #15 #8
Oregon Notes
(11/18) Rgame bad vs Wisc, Gabriel OK, missed WR Tez
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
(7/30) DL & DB's both PFF top 10, but 4/5 DBs are portals.
Oregon Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffORE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #4
SuccessSuc #25 #30
ExplosiveExp #124 #78
PPAPPA #40 #19
PowerPwr #2 #19
SP+SP+ #9 #14
Pts POPPO #5 #24
HavocHav #4 #52
Penn State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffORE Def
Run GameRun #21 #33
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #35
Run ExplRExp #123 #54
PPAExp #46 #32
Run BlockR Blk #57 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #60
Stuff RateStuff #2 #75
TackleTak -  #8
Penn State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffORE Def
Pass GamePass #6 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #27
Pass ExplPExl #115 #45
PPAExp #62 #16
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #89 #7
F7 HavocF7 #8 #96
DB HavocDB #7 #13
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatORE OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #16
SuccessSuc #1 #3
ExplosiveExp #67 #101
PPAPPA #2 #8
PowerPwr #4 #7
SP+SP+ #2 #4
Pts POPPO #1 #15
HavocHav #2 #2
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ORE OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #11 #27
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #3
Run ExplRExp #37 #46
PPAExp #2 #7
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLY #4 #2
Stuff RateStuff #32 #3
TackleTak -  #81
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatORE OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #10 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #1 #10
Pass ExplPExl #112 #94
PPAExp #3 #25
Pass Block/RushP Blk #21 #10
F7 HavocF7 #3 #1
DB HavocDB #4 #86
Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Lucas Oil Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 15
Oregon -3.5 (51.5)
Oregon won vs Penn State this year (45-37)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Penn State last year (30-24)
Oregon beat Penn State in 2024 (45-37)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Beau Pribula263574%275517.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Beau Pribula3824246.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler Warren1041233811.938
Harrison Wallace III47732415.650
Omari Evans20403520.259
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Reed957312
Kobe King878311
Zakee Wheatley863104
Abdul Carter62241294
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Abdul Carter62241294
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Amin Vanover215431
Jaylen Reed957312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
Cam Miller233025
A.J. Harris (Tr)413005

ORE's OC Junior Adams (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)32644773%38573068.6
Dante Moore (Tr)7888%49006.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan James2331267155.441
Noah Whittington11854064.628
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)7514972.054
Da'Jaun Riggs118217.524
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tez Johnson838981010.852
Traeshon Holden45718516.059
Evan Stewart (Tr)48613512.869
Terrance Ferguson43591313.762

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher877204
Tysheem Johnson583000
Kobe Savage (Tr)573001
Teitum Tuioti538631
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matayo Uiagalelei3711961
Jordan Burch2911945
Teitum Tuioti538631
Derrick Harmon (Tr)43115102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)3810010
Dontae Manning181006
Jordan Burch2911945