Iowa at Minnesota - 2024 Matchup Preview
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Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers

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Saturday, September 21st 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -3 (34.5) (-142)  Open: 0.0
Iowa 31 - Minnesota: 14  (Big Ten)

 
Hawkeyes (8 - 5) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (196 - 119)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (30 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 14.9 MPH
MINN 4th straight Home Game
MINN is playing their 4th straight game
IOWA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa -0.5  (SP+ IOWA -5.5)

Projected Score: IOWA: 20 - MINN: 20 (40)
IOWA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
IOWA Travel: 244 miles
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Iowa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa vs Illinois State-31.5
Sat 9/7Iowa vs Iowa State-3.0L19–2035.0L19–20ON
Sat 9/14Iowa vs Troy-23.5W38–2139.5W38–21ON
Sat 9/21Iowa at Minnesota-3.0W31–1434.5W31–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Iowa at Ohio State+17.0L7–3546.0L7–35UN
Sat 10/12Iowa vs Washington-2.5W40–1641.5W40–16OY
Sat 10/19Iowa at Michigan State-7.0L20–3239.5L20–32ON
Sat 10/26Iowa vs Northwestern-16.5W40–1438.5W40–14OY
Sat 11/2Iowa vs Wisconsin-2.5W42–1040.0W42–10OY
Fri 11/8Iowa at UCLA-6.5L17–2044.5L17–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Iowa at Maryland-4.0W29–1340.5W29–13OY
Fri 11/29Iowa vs Nebraska-3.5W13–1041.5W13–10UN
Mon 12/30Iowa vs Missouri+1.0L24–2741.0L24–27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Minnesota vs North Carolina+2.0L17–1952.5L17–19UY
Sat 9/7Minnesota vs Rhode Island-27.5W48–047.5W48–0OY
Sat 9/14Minnesota vs Nevada-17.5W27–044.5W27–0UY
Sat 9/21Minnesota vs Iowa+3.0L14–3134.5L14–31ON
Sat 9/28Minnesota at Michigan+10.5L24–2734.5L24–27OY
Sat 10/5Minnesota vs USC+8.5W24–1745.5W24–17UY
Sat 10/12Minnesota at UCLA-3.5W21–1739.0W21–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Minnesota vs Maryland-6.0W48–2345.0W48–23OY
Sat 11/2Minnesota at Illinois-2.5W25–1747.0W25–17UY
Sat 11/9Minnesota at Rutgers-6.5L19–2644.5L19–26ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Minnesota vs Penn State+11.0L25–2645.0L25–26OY
Fri 11/29Minnesota at Wisconsin-1.5W24–740.5W24–7UY
Fri 1/3Minnesota vs Virginia Tech-10.0W24–1043.5W24–10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA#133 (-.04)33% (133)29.333% (131)2.47 (132)10934% (124)1142.86 (126)#2 (-.01)34% (5)16.135% (11)34% (6)2.65 (4)281.41.1
MINN#118 (.09)41% (87)2344% (53)3.15 (61)15836% (116)1433.85 (73)#93 (.22)43% (75)22.945% (90)41% (63)4.67 (129)27.11.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MINN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Offense1429.329.832.9%2.861.4122231091143.456%43%33%34%19%-.04
MINN Defense1322.91342.6%4.671.5 - - - - - 47%51%45%41%11%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Defense1416.117.234.2%2.651.1 - - - - - 45%53%35%34%16%-.01
MINN Offense132330.140.5%3.851.3183011581434.159%40%44%36%13%.09

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa1426:2912.131%50%3.3281.41.14.91.9231.2
Minnesota1331:4918.235%82%327.11.31.53.21.6029
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense1456% (23)33% (131)32.1108.73.411 (123)-.08 (133)2.47 (132)66% (113)12% (105)0.82 (129)
MINN Defense1347% (34)45% (90) - - - - .2 (102)3.15 (79)80% (109)7% (132)0.99 (63)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense1445% (17)35% (11) - - - - -.05 (5)2.8 (21)71% (53)9% (88)0.72 (1)
MINN Offense1359% (12)44% (53)38.8157.54.113 (108).11 (92)3.15 (61)75% (52)7% (13)0.83 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense1443% (113)34% (124)11.523.1114.459.99 (126)9 (40).08 (125)1.4 (124)34% (99)21% (131).05 (133)7% (112)1.7 (128)
MINN Defense1351% (94)41% (63) - - - - - - 12 (37).29 (83)1.6 (73)30% (106)30% (71).42 (112)5% (116)2.2 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense1453% (113)34% (6) - - - - - - 10 (67).08 (5)1.4 (8)37% (8)25% (13).12 (3)7% (36)1.7 (4)
MINN Offense1340% (121)36% (116)12.624143.4611.416 (92)11 (68).1 (123)1.6 (53)29% (26)27% (99).16 (117)6% (52)1.9 (106)

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 10.13  #31
Iowa's Offense Rating: 17.67  #88
Iowa's Defense Rating: 2.77  #9
2024 Talent Rating: 438.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #44
Iowa's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Iowa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8  #16
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0  #69
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 10.13   Minnesota: 12.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 15.8   Minnesota: 10.4




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 12.545  #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19  #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27  #14
2024 Talent Rating: 417.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4  #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.2

Iowa's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 20
Minnesota 20


Projected Total Points: 40
Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Iowa41Minnesota3Iowa -7.5Iowa39.5Over
202409/21Minnesota14Iowa31Iowa -3Iowa34.5Over
202310/21Iowa10Minnesota12Iowa -3.0Minnesota30.5Under
202211/19Minnesota10Iowa13Minnesota -2Iowa31.5Under
202111/13Iowa27Minnesota22Iowa -4Iowa37.5Over
202011/13Minnesota7Iowa35Iowa -3Iowa58.0Under
201911/16Iowa23Minnesota19Iowa -3Iowa44.5Under
201810/06Minnesota31Iowa48Iowa -7Iowa41.5Over
201710/28Iowa17Minnesota10Iowa -7Push43.0Under
201610/08Minnesota7Iowa14Iowa -1.5Iowa50.0Under
201511/14Iowa40Minnesota35Iowa -11Minnesota47.0Over
201411/08Minnesota51Iowa14Minnesota -1Minnesota0
201309/28Minnesota7Iowa23Minnesota -3.5Iowa0
201209/29Iowa31Minnesota13
201110/29Minnesota22Iowa21
201011/27Minnesota27Iowa24
200911/21Iowa12Minnesota0
200811/22Minnesota0Iowa55
200711/10Iowa21Minnesota16
200611/18Minnesota34Iowa24
200511/19Iowa52Minnesota28
200411/13Minnesota27Iowa29
200311/15Iowa40Minnesota22
200211/16Minnesota21Iowa45
200111/17Iowa42Minnesota24
200011/17Minnesota27Iowa24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota635 Overs
Iowa2096 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 104 - 84 - 40 - 4
Road Teams10 - 168 - 44 - 04 - 4

(#31) IOWA at (#32) MINN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatIOWAMINN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #31 #32
SP+SP+ #16 #27
Perf GradeGrade #9 #24
OffenseOff #34 #43
DefenseDef #8 #25
Spec TeamsST #9 #1
TalentTal #26 #29
Blue ChipsBC% #44 #48
Iowa Notes
(11/30) 5 1st downs, 0-10 on 3rd, still beat Nebraska
(11/23) Rgame mauled bad Terps. 3rd QB Stratton meh
(11/18) QB Sullivan out for season (ankle), Cade time?
(11/13) QB's awful, Rgame worse, Def bad vs UCLA
(11/2) Off humming, 2 straight W's. Killed Wisky
(10/30) QB McMamara out vs Wisky, Sullivan to start
(10/19) Def torched by Sparty. QB is a joke. Bad, bad loss
(10/12) Off Expl vs Wash, Rgame 220 (5.9 ypc), Def good
(10/6) Can't compete w/ elites, Pass game awful
(10/6) Def v good, Off awful outside of Kaleb Johnson
(9/8) McNamara awful vs ISU, RB/OL v good. Pass D bad
(9/1) QB: McNamara over Sullivan (NW, mobile)
Iowa Injury Report
Minnesota Notes
(11/29) Killed Wisky. R Def all 24 car/36 yds. QB/RB good
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent
(7/30) OL returns 3/5, RB v good, Run game good LY
Minnesota Injury Report
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffMINN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #25
SuccessSuc #133 #75
ExplosiveExp #133 #75
PPAPPA #133 #93
PowerPwr #88 #14
SP+SP+ #69 #11
Pts POPPO #126 #129
HavocHav #113 #131
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #82 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #131 #90
Run ExplRExp #129 #63
PPAExp #133 #102
Run BlockR Blk #4 -
OL YdsOLY #132 #79
Stuff RateStuff #119 #91
TackleTak -  #89
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #98 #43
Pass SuccessPSuc #124 #63
Pass ExplPExl #124 #73
PPAExp #125 #83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #15 #68
F7 HavocF7 #105 #132
DB HavocDB #112 #116
Minnesota on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatMINN OffIOWA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #8
SuccessSuc #87 #5
ExplosiveExp #128 #2
PPAPPA #118 #2
PowerPwr #37 #9
SP+SP+ #79 #5
Pts POPPO #73 #4
HavocHav #14 #64
Minnesota Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
MINN OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #74 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #11
Run ExplRExp #127 #1
PPAExp #92 #5
Run BlockR Blk #35 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #21
Stuff RateStuff #40 #89
TackleTak -  #30
Minnesota Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatMINN OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #13 #6
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #6
Pass ExplPExl #53 #8
PPAExp #123 #5
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78 #12
F7 HavocF7 #13 #88
DB HavocDB #52 #36
Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 74° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Iowa 3.0 (34.5)
Iowa won at Minnesota this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Iowa beat Minnesota last year (41-3)
Iowa beat Minnesota in 2024 (31-14)
Minnesota beat Iowa in 2023 (12-10)

  
IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cade McNamara10417261%1017655.9
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)385372%474338.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaleb Johnson2401537216.475
Kamari Moulton8447335.668
Jaziun Patterson6330924.939
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)4715143.230
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob Gill (Tr)35411211.759
Luke Lachey2823108.328
Kaleb Johnson2218828.572
Reece Vander Zee14176312.619

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Higgins1243165
Nick Jackson915357
Quinn Schulte620003
Sebastian Castro573011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hurkett5612720
Aaron Graves338623
Max Llewellyn228673
Deontae Craig437361
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Jackson915357
Jermari Harris271007
Jay Higgins1243165

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)26840367%28291867.0
Drake Lindsey4580%501010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor205986104.880
Marcus Major (Tr)7835234.540
Jaren Mangham (Tr)1912306.518
Jordan Nubin111901.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Jackson75863411.539
Elijah Spencer52685613.229
Darius Taylor5435026.522
Jameson Geers27286410.623

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Lindenberg945136
Maverick Baranowski655112
Kerry Brown633004
Danny Striggow526561
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith27126101
Jack Henderson449611
Danny Striggow526561
Jah Joyner326597
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Walley4221110
Ethan Robinson (Tr)423009
Jah Joyner326597