Penn State at West Virginia - 2024 Matchup Preview

Penn State Nittany Lions at West Virginia Mountaineers

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -7.5 (48.0) (-380) Open: -10.0 | 51.0
Penn State 34 - West Virginia: 12

Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Penn State -21 (SP+ PSU -22.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 37 - WVU: 16 (53)
PSU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 137 miles

Mountaineers (6 - 7) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Neal Brown (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 32 (28 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PSU Players
WVU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Penn State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Penn State at West Virginia	-7.5	48.0	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Penn State vs Bowling Green	-35.5	51.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Penn State vs Kent State	-49.0	58.0	W 56 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Penn State vs Illinois	-19.5	48.0	W 21 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/5	Penn State vs UCLA	-30.0	48.0	W 27 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/12	Penn State at USC	-3.5	51.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Penn State at Wisconsin	-6.5	47.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Penn State vs Ohio State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	Penn State vs Washington	-13.5	48.0	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Penn State at Purdue	-30.0	51.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Penn State at Minnesota	-11.0	45.0	W 26 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/30	Penn State vs Maryland	-26.5	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Penn State vs Oregon	+3.5	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/21	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	West Virginia vs Penn State	+7.5	48.0	L 12 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/7	West Virginia vs UAlbany	-38.5	53.5	W 49 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/14	West Virginia at Pittsburgh	-2.5	60.5	L 34 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/21	West Virginia vs Kansas	-1.5	56.0	W 32 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	West Virginia at Oklahoma State	+2.5	65.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/12	West Virginia vs Iowa State	+3.0	54.0	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/19	West Virginia vs Kansas State	+2.5	56.5	L 18 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/26	West Virginia at Arizona	+5.5	51.5	W 31 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	West Virginia at Cincinnati	+5.5	54.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/16	West Virginia vs Baylor	+2.0	60.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/23	West Virginia vs UCF	+3.0	60.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	West Virginia at Texas Tech	+2.5	61.5	L 15 - 52	O	N
Tue 12/17	West Virginia vs Memphis	+5.0	60.0	L 37 - 42	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)	33.1	52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)	16.5	39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3
WVU	#63 (.2)	43% (69)	29.2	44% (75)	3.05 (64)	196	41% (73)	210	4.6 (16)	#124 (.3)	45% (103)	31.9	41% (46)	49% (128)	4.74 (131)	33.9	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)		52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)		39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3
WVU	#63 (.2)	43% (69)		44% (75)	3.05 (64)	196	41% (73)	210	4.6 (16)	#124 (.3)	45% (103)		41% (46)	49% (128)	4.74 (131)	33.9	1.5	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Offense	16	33.1	34	51.3%	4.69	0.8	20	385	176	209	5.3	54%	46%	52%	51%	10%	.32
WVU Defense	13	31.9	31.3	44.8%	4.74	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	49%	13%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Defense	16	16.5	18	37.9%	3.22	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	39%	37%	18%	.05
WVU Offense	13	29.2	27.6	42.5%	4.6	1.5	23	406	196	210	4.9	56%	44%	44%	41%	16%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Penn State	16	26:51	20.4	48%	70%	4.4	41.4	0.8	1.3	5.5	2.3	4	28.9
West Virginia	13	31:36	22.6	42%	62%	4.3	33.9	1.5	1.1	4.8	1.5	1	28.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Offense	16	54% (38)	52% (9)	33.2	176.2	5.3	31 (17)	.24 (20)	3.42 (10)	76% (51)	7% (8)	0.92 (90)
WVU Defense	13	51% (68)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.08 (46)	2.83 (41)	64% (21)	9% (97)	1.02 (86)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Defense	16	48% (43)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (12)	2.37 (3)	75% (75)	12% (26)	0.92 (42)
WVU Offense	13	56% (28)	44% (75)	40.1	196	4.9	27 (30)	.16 (52)	3.05 (64)	78% (33)	10% (82)	1.07 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Offense	16	46% (95)	51% (4)	16.7	24.3	208.8	8.6	12.5	27 (20)	9 (48)	.41 (11)	1.5 (107)	26% (3)	35% (31)	.46 (20)	3% (5)	2 (85)
WVU Defense	13	49% (68)	49% (128)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.53 (133)	1.8 (127)	31% (84)	38% (128)	.61 (133)	4% (126)	2.3 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Defense	16	52% (96)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.1 (16)	1.7 (91)	36% (14)	27% (25)	.2 (29)	6% (57)	2.1 (95)
WVU Offense	13	44% (107)	41% (73)	17.4	28.6	210.3	7.4	12.1	20 (58)	14 (115)	.26 (65)	1.8 (16)	34% (117)	32% (63)	.37 (52)	6% (75)	2.3 (8)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26 West Virginia: 3.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6 West Virginia: 2.1

West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: 3.57 #63
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 23.43 #32
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 16.47 #118
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
West Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
West Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.1 #65
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #46
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 37
West Virginia 16

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 32
West Virginia 25

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 33
West Virginia 23

Total Points: 56

West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

West Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/31	West Virginia	12	Penn State	34	Penn State -7.5	Penn State	48.0	Under
2023	09/02	Penn State	38	West Virginia	15	Penn State -21	Penn State	48.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
West Virginia	0	0	1 Overs
Penn State	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#6) PSU at (#63) WVU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PSU	WVU
Power RatePwr	#6	#63
SP+SP+	#5	#65
Perf GradeGrade	#12	#70
OffenseOff	#15	#35
DefenseDef	#16	#114
Spec TeamsST	#62	#20
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#15	#62

Penn State Injury Report

West Virginia Notes(12/29) Hired DC Z Alley (Okl, Jax St DC)
(12/11) Hired HC Rodriguez (Former HC, Jax St 3 yrs)
(12/1) HC Brown fired after 37-35 in 6 years
(11/23) Rgame 200 yds, 3.7 ypc, Greene meh in UCF W
(11/18) Bad L vs Baylor, Def torched, QB Green was bad
(11/16) QB Greene back for Baylor, Marchiol was better
(11/13) 2 cons road W's, lucky vs Cincy, OG's by 180 yds
(11/7) QB change: Marchiol takes over for Greene full time
(10/29) DC Lesley fired, LB/ST Koonz will take over
(10/27) QB Marhiol good vs Az, 18/22, 2 TDs. Rgame good
(10/19) Killed by K St pass game (300 yds)? Bad team
(10/13) Even w/ ISU, 3 TO's, Greene just not good enough
West Virginia Injury Report

Penn State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	WVU Def
Perf GradePerf	#15	#114
SuccessSuc	#4	#103
ExplosiveExp	#116	#128
PPAPPA	#11	#124
PowerPwr	#2	#118
SP+SP+	#9	#87
Pts POPPO	#9	#131
HavocHav	#3	#119

Penn State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	WVU Def
Run GameRun	#21	#48
Run SuccessRSuc	#9	#46
Run ExplRExp	#90	#86
PPAExp	#20	#46
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#10	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#24	#53
TackleTak	-	#11

Penn State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	WVU Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	#4	#128
Pass ExplPExl	#107	#127
PPAExp	#11	#133
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#89	#102
F7 HavocF7	#8	#97
DB HavocDB	#5	#126

West Virginia on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	PSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#35	#16
SuccessSuc	#69	#21
ExplosiveExp	#13	#81
PPAPPA	#63	#9
PowerPwr	#32	#7
SP+SP+	#46	#4
Pts POPPO	#16	#18
HavocHav	#79	#38

West Virginia Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#66	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#27
Run ExplRExp	#35	#42
PPAExp	#52	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#9	-
OL YdsOLY	#64	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#74	#1
TackleTak	-	#81

West Virginia Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#73	#25
Pass ExplPExl	#16	#91
PPAExp	#65	#16
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#11	#10
F7 HavocF7	#82	#26
DB HavocDB	#75	#57

Program Comparison
WVU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 73° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Penn State 7.5 (48.0)
Penn State won at West Virginia this year (34-12)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat West Virginia last year (34-12)
Penn State beat West Virginia in 2023 (38-15)

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	262	394	67%	3327	24	8	8.4
Beau Pribula	26	35	74%	275	5	1	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	220	1108	8	5.0	32
Nicholas Singleton	172	1099	12	6.4	58
Drew Allar	96	302	6	3.1	22
Beau Pribula	38	242	4	6.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Warren	104	1233	8	11.9	38
Harrison Wallace III	47	732	4	15.6	50
Omari Evans	20	403	5	20.2	59
Nicholas Singleton	41	375	5	9.1	27

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1
Zakee Wheatley	86	3	1	0	4
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Dani Dennis-Sutton	40	13	9	9	3
Amin Vanover	21	5	4	3	1
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elliot Washington II	25	1	0	6
Cam Miller	23	3	2	5
A.J. Harris (Tr)	41	3	0	5

WVU's OC Chad Scott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Greene	189	316	60%	2300	15	12	7.3
Nicco Marchiol	37	56	66%	434	5	2	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jahiem White	149	845	7	5.7	55
Garrett Greene	133	751	6	5.6	56
CJ Donaldson	163	734	11	4.5	48
Nicco Marchiol	40	120	2	3.0	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hudson Clement	51	741	5	14.5	44
Kole Taylor	43	448	3	10.4	39
Traylon Ray	28	426	4	15.2	54
Rodney Gallagher	26	288	3	11.1	33

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC Jeff Koonz (Int) (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Wilson	102	0	0	0	3
Josiah Trotter	93	4	1	5	2
Trey Lathan	79	9	2	3	0
Tyrin Bradley	56	8	2	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Jackson (Tr)	40	14	7	1	0
Sean Martin	23	6	4	5	1
Hammond Russell IV	17	4	3	3	0
Trey Lathan	79	9	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garnett Hollis Jr. (Tr)	46	1	0	0	6
Tyrin Bradley	56	8	2	2	4
Anthony Wilson	102	0	0	0	3