Northwestern at Iowa - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -16.5 (38.5) (-585) Open: -14.0 | 38.0
Iowa 40 - Northwestern: 14 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

IOWA is playing their 4th straight game
NW is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa -24.5 (SP+ IOWA -24)
Projected Score: NW: 9 - IOWA: 33 (42)
IOWA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
NW Travel: 201 miles

Hawkeyes (8 - 5) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (196 - 119)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (33 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
IOWA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Iowa's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Iowa vs Illinois State	-31.5
Sat 9/7	Iowa vs Iowa State	-3.0	35.0	L 19 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	Iowa vs Troy	-23.5	39.5	W 38 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Iowa at Minnesota	-3.0	34.5	W 31 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Iowa at Ohio State	+17.0	46.0	L 7 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/12	Iowa vs Washington	-2.5	41.5	W 40 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Iowa at Michigan State	-7.0	39.5	L 20 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/26	Iowa vs Northwestern	-16.5	38.5	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Iowa vs Wisconsin	-2.5	40.0	W 42 - 10	O	Y
Fri 11/8	Iowa at UCLA	-6.5	44.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Iowa at Maryland	-4.0	40.5	W 29 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Iowa vs Nebraska	-3.5	41.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Mon 12/30	Iowa vs Missouri	+1.0	41.0	L 24 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)	17.8	39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)	26.3	44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
IOWA	#100 (.14)	42% (72)	27.7	44% (63)	2.92 (89)	185	40% (94)	121	3.77 (84)	#30 (.11)	42% (72)	17.8	46% (97)	39% (51)	3.37 (27)	26.3	0.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
IOWA	#100 (.14)	42% (72)		44% (63)	2.92 (89)	185	40% (94)	121	3.77 (84)	#30 (.11)	42% (72)		46% (97)	39% (51)	3.37 (27)	26.3	0.8	1.8

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	17.8	17.6	37.1%	3.02	1.5	16	285	99	186	3.4	45%	54%	39%	36%	19%	.02
IOWA Defense	13	17.8	13	42%	3.37	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	46%	39%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	26.3	28.8	45%	3.74	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	44%	46%	15%	.15
IOWA Offense	13	27.7	33.1	42.3%	3.77	0.8	15	306	185	121	5.2	62%	37%	44%	40%	13%	.14

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	29:49	16	33%	50%	4.8	38.8	1.5	1.3	4.8	1.9	3	28
Iowa	13	27:05	15.4	41%	50%	2.8	26.3	0.8	1.8	4.5	2.1	2	33.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	45% (106)	39% (113)	29.3	98.6	3.4	12 (114)	.07 (102)	2.63 (124)	66% (112)	11% (98)	1.1 (20)
IOWA Defense	13	46% (17)	46% (97)	-	-	-	-	.07 (38)	3.07 (84)	84% (126)	10% (68)	0.68 (1)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	47% (26)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.07 (42)	2.99 (63)	69% (47)	8% (107)	0.86 (15)
IOWA Offense	13	62% (7)	44% (63)	35.5	185	5.2	29 (18)	.13 (71)	2.92 (89)	62% (120)	10% (76)	1.02 (47)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	54% (31)	36% (116)	17.6	32.7	186.1	5.7	10.6	7 (130)	11 (72)	.02 (132)	1.3 (134)	35% (119)	31% (79)	.2 (109)	8% (121)	1.8 (119)
IOWA Defense	13	54% (118)	39% (51)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.18 (39)	1.5 (36)	32% (76)	28% (36)	.24 (39)	7% (27)	1.8 (7)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	53% (110)	46% (117)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.25 (77)	1.4 (13)	27% (128)	35% (116)	.28 (55)	7% (33)	1.8 (24)
IOWA Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (94)	11.5	18.6	121.5	6.5	10.6	9 (128)	7 (26)	.21 (93)	1.5 (93)	26% (4)	28% (99)	.2 (108)	3% (7)	2 (72)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.92 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -9.92 Iowa: 15.465

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -8.2 Iowa: 15.8

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 15.465 #31
Iowa's Offense Rating: 17.67 #88
Iowa's Defense Rating: 2.77 #9
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #44
Iowa's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Iowa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8 #16
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.6
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa 33
Northwestern 9

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa 27
Northwestern 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Iowa 29
Northwestern 17

Total Points: 46

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.1
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Iowa's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Iowa	40	Northwestern	14	Iowa -16.5	Iowa	38.5	Over
2023	11/04	Northwestern	7	Iowa	10	Iowa -4.5	Northwestern	30.5	Under
2022	10/29	Iowa	33	Northwestern	13	Iowa -11.5	Iowa	37.0	Over
2021	11/06	Northwestern	12	Iowa	17	Iowa -11.5	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2020	10/31	Iowa	20	Northwestern	21	Iowa -3.0	Northwestern	0
2019	10/26	Northwestern	0	Iowa	20	Iowa -7.5	Iowa	35.5	Under
2018	11/10	Iowa	10	Northwestern	14	Iowa -10	Northwestern	46.5	Under
2017	10/21	Northwestern	17	Iowa	10	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	45.5	Under
2016	10/01	Iowa	31	Northwestern	38	Iowa -12	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2015	10/17	Northwestern	10	Iowa	40	Iowa -2.5	Iowa	41.0	Over
2014	11/01	Iowa	48	Northwestern	7	Iowa -6	Iowa	0
2013	10/26	Iowa	17	Northwestern	10	Iowa -3	Iowa	0
2012	10/27	Northwestern	28	Iowa	17
2011	10/15	Iowa	41	Northwestern	31
2010	11/13	Northwestern	21	Iowa	17
2009	11/07	Iowa	10	Northwestern	17
2008	09/27	Iowa	17	Northwestern	22
2007	11/03	Northwestern	17	Iowa	28
2006	11/04	Iowa	7	Northwestern	21
2005	11/05	Northwestern	28	Iowa	27
2002	11/09	Iowa	62	Northwestern	10
2001	11/10	Northwestern	16	Iowa	59
2000	11/10	Iowa	27	Northwestern	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa	13	6	4 Overs
Northwestern	10	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 12	7 - 5	5 - 3	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 11	5 - 7	2 - 2	3 - 5

(#100) NW at (#31) IOWA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	IOWA
Power RatePwr	#100	#31
SP+SP+	#101	#16
Perf GradeGrade	#111	#9
OffenseOff	#131	#34
DefenseDef	#47	#8
Spec TeamsST	#123	#9
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#44

Northwestern Notes(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job
(8/1) New OC Lujan (FCS/SDSU) v interesting hire
Northwestern Injury Report

Iowa Notes(11/30) 5 1st downs, 0-10 on 3rd, still beat Nebraska
(11/23) Rgame mauled bad Terps. 3rd QB Stratton meh
(11/18) QB Sullivan out for season (ankle), Cade time?
(11/13) QB's awful, Rgame worse, Def bad vs UCLA
(11/2) Off humming, 2 straight W's. Killed Wisky
(10/30) QB McMamara out vs Wisky, Sullivan to start
(10/19) Def torched by Sparty. QB is a joke. Bad, bad loss
(10/12) Off Expl vs Wash, Rgame 220 (5.9 ypc), Def good
(10/6) Can't compete w/ elites, Pass game awful
(10/6) Def v good, Off awful outside of Kaleb Johnson
(9/8) McNamara awful vs ISU, RB/OL v good. Pass D bad
(9/1) QB: McNamara over Sullivan (NW, mobile)
Iowa Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	IOWA Def
Perf GradePerf	#131	#8
SuccessSuc	#123	#72
ExplosiveExp	#101	#4
PPAPPA	#129	#30
PowerPwr	#125	#9
SP+SP+	#124	#5
Pts POPPO	#127	#27
HavocHav	#118	#51

Northwestern Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	IOWA Def
Run GameRun	#129	#42
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#97
Run ExplRExp	#20	#1
PPAExp	#102	#38
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#84
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#115
TackleTak	-	#30

Northwestern Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	IOWA Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#51
Pass ExplPExl	#134	#36
PPAExp	#132	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#61	#12
F7 HavocF7	#98	#68
DB HavocDB	#121	#27

Iowa on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	IOWA Off	NW Def
Perf GradePerf	#34	#47
SuccessSuc	#72	#106
ExplosiveExp	#110	#16
PPAPPA	#100	#57
PowerPwr	#88	#83
SP+SP+	#69	#51
Pts POPPO	#84	#64
HavocHav	#31	#77

Iowa Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	IOWA Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#82	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#63	#80
Run ExplRExp	#47	#15
PPAExp	#71	#42
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#89	#63
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#40
TackleTak	-	#102

Iowa Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	IOWA Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#98	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#117
Pass ExplPExl	#93	#13
PPAExp	#93	#77
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#15	#41
F7 HavocF7	#76	#107
DB HavocDB	#7	#33

Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Iowa -16.5 (38.5)
Iowa won vs Northwestern this year (40-14)

Previous Matchups
Iowa beat Northwestern last year (40-14)
Iowa beat Northwestern in 2023 (10-7)
Iowa beat Northwestern in 2022 (33-13)

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	0	0	5
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4

IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cade McNamara	104	172	61%	1017	6	5	5.9
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)	38	53	72%	474	3	3	8.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaleb Johnson	240	1537	21	6.4	75
Kamari Moulton	84	473	3	5.6	68
Jaziun Patterson	63	309	2	4.9	39
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)	47	151	4	3.2	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacob Gill (Tr)	35	411	2	11.7	59
Luke Lachey	28	231	0	8.3	28
Kaleb Johnson	22	188	2	8.5	72
Reece Vander Zee	14	176	3	12.6	19

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5
Nick Jackson	91	5	3	5	7
Quinn Schulte	62	0	0	0	3
Sebastian Castro	57	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Hurkett	56	12	7	2	0
Aaron Graves	33	8	6	2	3
Max Llewellyn	22	8	6	7	3
Deontae Craig	43	7	3	6	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Jackson	91	5	3	5	7
Jermari Harris	27	1	0	0	7
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5