Northwestern at Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan Wolverines

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Michigan -10.5 (35.5) (-425) Open: -13.5
Michigan 50 - Northwestern: 6 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (15 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MICH coming off BYE
Our Line: Michigan -19.5 (SP+ MICH -19)
Projected Score: NW: 10 - MICH: 30 (40)
MICH Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
NW Travel: 202 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wolverines (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
MICH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Michigan's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Michigan vs Fresno State	-21.0	48.0	W 30 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan vs Texas	+7.0	42.0	L 12 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/14	Michigan vs Arkansas State	-22.0	47.5	W 28 - 18	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan vs USC	+4.0	44.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan vs Minnesota	-10.5	34.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/5	Michigan at Washington	+1.5	39.5	L 17 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan at Illinois	-6.0	44.0	L 7 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Michigan vs Michigan State	-3.5	39.0	W 24 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Michigan vs Oregon	+14.5	45.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Michigan at Indiana	+14.5	47.5	L 15 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Michigan vs Northwestern	-10.5	35.5	W 50 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Michigan at Ohio State	+20.5	41.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Michigan vs Alabama	+16.5	45.5	W 19 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	23.4	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	19.8	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8
MICH	#11 (.33)	50% (7)	27.5	47% (31)	3.26 (39)	140	56% (2)	190	4.79 (10)	#1 (-.01)	32% (1)	20.4	32% (4)	33% (4)	2.37 (1)	22.8	0.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MICH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	13	23.4	15.2	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1
MICH Defense	15	20.4	13.3	32.3%	2.37	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	32%	33%	21%	-.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	13	19.8	26	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14
MICH Offense	15	27.5	29.2	50.3%	4.79	0.5	18	330	140	190	4.3	56%	44%	47%	56%	11%	.33

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7
Michigan	15	28:25	17.7	47%	79%	2.5	22.8	0.5	1.6	4.9	2.1	4	33.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)
MICH Defense	15	49% (50)	32% (4)	-	-	-	-	-.09 (1)	2.57 (9)	55% (4)	12% (13)	0.85 (11)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)
MICH Offense	15	56% (25)	47% (31)	32.9	140.2	4.3	35 (5)	.19 (45)	3.26 (39)	76% (46)	7% (7)	0.91 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)
MICH Defense	15	50% (79)	33% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.09 (7)	1.6 (67)	36% (19)	25% (16)	.07 (1)	9% (3)	1.7 (3)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)
MICH Offense	15	44% (105)	56% (2)	15.5	21	189.6	9	12.2	21 (65)	5 (6)	.55 (5)	1.5 (89)	28% (11)	38% (11)	.52 (16)	4% (12)	2 (77)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.92 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 367.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -9.92 Michigan: 10.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -8.2 Michigan: 10.6

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
2024 Talent Rating: 550.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.2
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 30
Northwestern 10

Projected Total Points: 40

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Northwestern	22	Michigan	24	Michigan -10	Northwestern	41.5	Over
2024	11/23	Michigan	50	Northwestern	6	Michigan -10.5	Michigan	35.5	Over
2021	10/23	Michigan	33	Northwestern	7	Michigan -23.5	Michigan	51.5	Under
2018	09/29	Northwestern	17	Michigan	20	Michigan -14.5	Northwestern	46.5	Under
2015	10/10	Michigan	38	Northwestern	0	Michigan -10	Michigan	37.0	Over
2014	11/08	Northwestern	9	Michigan	10	Northwestern -2	Michigan	0
2013	11/16	Northwestern	19	Michigan	27	Northwestern -1.5	Michigan	0
2012	11/10	Michigan	38	Northwestern	31
2011	10/08	Northwestern	24	Michigan	42
2008	11/15	Michigan	14	Northwestern	21
2007	09/29	Northwestern	16	Michigan	28
2006	10/28	Michigan	17	Northwestern	3
2005	10/29	Northwestern	17	Michigan	33
2004	11/13	Michigan	42	Northwestern	20
2003	11/15	Northwestern	10	Michigan	41
2000	11/03	Northwestern	54	Michigan	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan	14	5	3 Overs
Northwestern	2	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 9	5 - 2	3 - 2	2 - 0
Road Teams	9 - 7	2 - 5	0 - 2	2 - 3

(#100) NW at (#43) MICH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	MICH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#100	#43
SP+SP+	#101	#26
Perf GradeGrade	#111	#21
OffenseOff	#131	#101
DefenseDef	#47	#7
Spec TeamsST	#123	#38
TalentTal	#52	#9
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#16

Northwestern Notes(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job
(8/1) New OC Lujan (FCS/SDSU) v interesting hire
Northwestern Injury Report

Michigan Notes(12/24) Signed QB Keene (Fresno) w Underwood
(12/11) Hired OC Chip Lindsey? (NC, UCF, Troy HC)
(12/3) Fired OC Kirk Campbell after the season
(12/1) Beat OSU again, Rgame tough, Def incredible
(11/13) Great 2nd H vs IU, nearly won. Off just sucks
(10/28) QB Tuttle retired after 5th concussion
(10/20) Star CB Johnson left Ill game (inj)
(10/19) Off gained yds but 3 TOs killed em. Bad team
(10/14) Replaced LT (worst PFF graded LT), shuffling OL
(10/10) Staff needs changing. DC Wink has to go
(10/6) QB Tuttle healthy, playing. Didn't matter vs UW
(9/21) Bully balled USC w/ a high school Off & great D
Michigan Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	MICH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#131	#7
SuccessSuc	#110	#1
ExplosiveExp	#108	#37
PPAPPA	#113	#1
PowerPwr	#125	#51
SP+SP+	#124	#10
Pts POPPO	#48	#1
HavocHav	#67	#6

Northwestern Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#129	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#4
Run ExplRExp	#128	#11
PPAExp	#120	#1
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#9
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#22
TackleTak	-	#10

Northwestern Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#67
PPAExp	#100	#7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#61	#1
F7 HavocF7	#88	#13
DB HavocDB	#23	#3

Michigan on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#47
SuccessSuc	#7	#83
ExplosiveExp	#106	#6
PPAPPA	#11	#33
PowerPwr	#116	#83
SP+SP+	#93	#51
Pts POPPO	#10	#56
HavocHav	#6	#115

Michigan Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#58	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#31	#73
Run ExplRExp	#107	#31
PPAExp	#45	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#6	#84
TackleTak	-	#102

Michigan Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#125	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#2	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#89	#9
PPAExp	#5	#39
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#41
F7 HavocF7	#7	#105
DB HavocDB	#12	#101

Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Declining CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Down to Average P4

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Michigan -10.5 (35.5)
Michigan won vs Northwestern this year (50-6)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Northwestern last year (24-22)
Michigan beat Northwestern in 2024 (50-6)

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	0	0	5
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4

MICH's OC Kirk Campbell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Davis Warren	133	207	64%	1198	7	9	5.8
Jack Tuttle	30	50	60%	306	1	2	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kalel Mullings	185	948	12	5.1	63
Donovan Edwards	128	589	4	4.6	41
Alex Orji	57	269	1	4.7	29
Jordan Marshall	31	120	0	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Colston Loveland	56	582	5	10.4	36
Tyler Morris	23	248	2	10.8	28
Semaj Morgan	27	139	1	5.1	31
Fredrick Moore	11	128	1	11.6	20

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ernest Hausmann	89	7	2	2	1
Jaishawn Barham (Tr)	66	4	1	5	2
Mason Graham	46	7	4	3	1
Makari Paige	45	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josaiah Stewart	33	13	9	7	0
TJ Guy	32	7	6	6	0
Derrick Moore	23	6	4	4	2
Mason Graham	46	7	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zeke Berry	37	3	0	2	9
Jyaire Hill	35	6	1	0	8
Quinten Johnson	43	1	0	0	5