Illinois at Northwestern - 2024 Matchup Preview
Illinois logo Illinois Fighting Illini vs Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Illinois -8.5 (42.5) (-340)  Open: -7.5 | 44.5
Illinois 38 - Northwestern: 28  (Big Ten)

 
Fighting Illini (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 22.1°
Wind: 12.7 MPH
ILL 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Illinois -17.5  (SP+ ILL -18)

Projected Score: ILL: 30 - NW: 13 (43)
ILL Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
ILL Travel: 524 miles
Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.550.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Illinois vs Kansas+4.558.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 9/14 Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.549.5W 30 - 9UN
Fri 9/20 Illinois at Nebraska+9.541.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Illinois at Penn State+19.548.0L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Illinois vs Purdue-22.547.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 10/19 Illinois vs Michigan+6.044.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 Illinois at Oregon+22.554.0L 9 - 38UN
Sat 11/2 Illinois vs Minnesota+2.547.0L 17 - 25UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Illinois vs Michigan State-2.047.5W 38 - 16OY
Sat 11/23 Illinois at Rutgers+2.048.0W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/30 Illinois vs Northwestern-8.542.5W 38 - 28OY
Tue 12/31 Illinois vs South Carolina+9.550.0W 21 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Northwestern vs Miami (OH)-4.043.0W 13 - 6UY
Fri 9/6 Northwestern vs Duke-2.537.5L 20 - 26ON
Sat 9/14 Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois-26.538.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/21 Northwestern at Washington+11.542.5L 5 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Northwestern vs Indiana+12.540.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 10/11 Northwestern at Maryland+11.045.0W 37 - 10OY
Sat 10/19 Northwestern vs Wisconsin+9.542.5L 3 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Northwestern at Iowa+16.538.5L 14 - 40ON
Sat 11/2 Northwestern at Purdue+3.044.5W 26 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Northwestern vs Ohio State+28.043.5L 7 - 31UY
Sat 11/23 Northwestern at Michigan+10.535.5L 6 - 50ON
Sat 11/30 Northwestern vs Illinois+8.542.5L 28 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)28.345% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)21.750% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)17.839% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)26.344% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)39% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)44% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Offense1328.321.344.6%4.230.9193381401984.453%47%45%44%18%.25
NW Defense1226.326.345%3.741.3 - - - - - 47%53%44%46%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Defense1321.728.546.3%3.481.5 - - - - - 48%52%50%43%13%.18
NW Offense1217.817.837.1%3.021.516285991863.445%54%39%36%19%.02

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Illinois1326:5218.744%50%5.1390.91.53.82.2130.2
Northwestern1229:491633%50%4.838.81.51.34.81.9328
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Offense1353% (50)45% (51)31.81404.420 (67).13 (67)3.14 (49)81% (17)11% (107)0.91 (95)
NW Defense1247% (26)44% (80) - - - - .07 (42)2.99 (63)69% (47)8% (107)0.86 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Defense1348% (37)50% (127) - - - - .19 (108)3.57 (132)75% (75)8% (120)0.8 (5)
NW Offense1245% (106)39% (113)29.398.63.412 (114).07 (102)2.63 (124)66% (112)11% (98)1.1 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Offense1347% (83)44% (44)15.425.5197.87.812.921 (51)5 (6).38 (16)1.8 (15)31% (62)31% (81).42 (31)6% (82)2.3 (5)
NW Defense1253% (110)46% (117) - - - - - - 10 (66).25 (77)1.4 (13)27% (128)35% (116).28 (55)7% (33)1.8 (24)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Defense1352% (95)43% (90) - - - - - - 12 (39).19 (44)1.4 (17)28% (117)34% (111).37 (97)6% (84)1.9 (40)
NW Offense1254% (31)36% (116)17.632.7186.15.710.67 (130)11 (72).02 (132)1.3 (134)35% (119)31% (79).2 (109)8% (121)1.8 (119)

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 6.78  #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25  #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87  #72
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 6.78   Northwestern: -9.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 9.6   Northwestern: -8.2




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.06  #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18  #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29  #83
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2  #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5  #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.3
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.5

Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 30
Northwestern 13


Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Illinois 21
Northwestern 19

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Illinois 25
Northwestern 22

Total Points: 47
Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Illinois20Northwestern13Illinois -7Push44.5Under
202411/30Northwestern28Illinois38Illinois -8.5Illinois42.5Over
202311/25Illinois43Northwestern45Illinois -5Northwestern46.5Over
202211/26Northwestern3Illinois41Illinois -15.0Illinois38.0Over
202111/27Illinois47Northwestern14Illinois -7Illinois45.0Over
202012/12Northwestern28Illinois10Northwestern -13Northwestern41.0Under
201911/30Illinois10Northwestern29Illinois -6.5Northwestern38.0Over
201811/24Northwestern24Illinois16Northwestern -14.5Illinois56.0Under
201711/25Illinois7Northwestern42Northwestern -16.5Northwestern46.0Over
201611/26Northwestern42Illinois21Northwestern -15Northwestern48.5Over
201511/28Illinois14Northwestern24Northwestern -3.5Northwestern42.0Under
201411/29Northwestern33Illinois47Northwestern -9Illinois0
201311/30Illinois34Northwestern37Northwestern -4Illinois0
201211/24Northwestern50Illinois14
201110/01Illinois38Northwestern35
201011/20Northwestern27Illinois48
200911/14Illinois16Northwestern21
200811/22Northwestern27Illinois10
200711/17Illinois41Northwestern22
200611/18Northwestern27Illinois16
200511/19Illinois21Northwestern38
200411/20Northwestern28Illinois21
200311/22Illinois20Northwestern37
200111/22Illinois34Northwestern28
200011/17Northwestern61Illinois23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern1667 Overs
Illinois964 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 124 - 83 - 41 - 4
Road Teams12 - 138 - 44 - 14 - 3

(#39) ILL at (#100) NW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatILLNW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #39 #100
SP+SP+ #31 #101
Perf GradeGrade #38 #111
OffenseOff #38 #131
DefenseDef #50 #47
Spec TeamsST #47 #123
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #48 #82
Northwestern Notes
(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job
(8/1) New OC Lujan (FCS/SDSU) v interesting hire
Northwestern Injury Report
Illinois on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ILL OffNW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #38 #47
SuccessSuc #45 #106
ExplosiveExp #44 #16
PPAPPA #31 #57
PowerPwr #47 #83
SP+SP+ #55 #51
Pts POPPO #39 #64
HavocHav #103 #77
Illinois Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ILL OffNW Def
Run GameRun #47 #76
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #80
Run ExplRExp #95 #15
PPAExp #67 #42
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #63
Stuff RateStuff #20 #40
TackleTak -  #102
Illinois Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ILL OffNW Def
Pass GamePass #40 #51
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #117
Pass ExplPExl #15 #13
PPAExp #16 #77
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #87 #41
F7 HavocF7 #107 #107
DB HavocDB #82 #33
Northwestern on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatNW OffILL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #131 #50
SuccessSuc #123 #115
ExplosiveExp #101 #8
PPAPPA #129 #76
PowerPwr #125 #72
SP+SP+ #124 #26
Pts POPPO #127 #37
HavocHav #118 #117
Northwestern Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
NW OffILL Def
Run GameRun #129 #102
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #127
Run ExplRExp #20 #5
PPAExp #102 #108
Run BlockR Blk #82 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #132
Stuff RateStuff #129 #134
TackleTak -  #7
Northwestern Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatNW OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #130 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #90
Pass ExplPExl #134 #17
PPAExp #132 #44
Pass Block/RushP Blk #61 #50
F7 HavocF7 #98 #120
DB HavocDB #121 #84
Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wrigley Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 22° - Wind: 13 mph
Rematch from Week 14
Illinois 8.5 (42.5)
Illinois won at Northwestern this year (38-28)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Northwestern last year (38-28)
Northwestern beat Illinois in 2023 (45-43)
Illinois beat Northwestern in 2022 (41-3)

  
ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer21134761%27172267.8
Donovan Leary2540%29005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua McCray117609105.260
Aidan Laughery9758946.164
Kaden Feagin6730634.634
Luke Altmyer9921742.237
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Patrick Bryant539781018.564
Zakhari Franklin (Tr)56658411.844
Hank Beatty20294114.759
Collin Dixon18264014.741

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey942005
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dylan Rosiek613201
James Kreutz541021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dennis Briggs Jr. (Tr)425450
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Seth Coleman537353
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Scott492106
Matthew Bailey942005
Jaheim Clarke341015

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Lausch15929654%1714785.8
Mike Wright (Tr)396758%356015.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Porter12650164.044
Joseph Himon II5225724.951
Jack Lausch8721322.429
Caleb Komolafe5013902.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
A.J. Henning59603410.246
Bryce Kirtz39598015.355
Thomas Gordon2725219.326
Cam Porter2317407.628

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Uihlein844201
Xander Mueller575114
Theran Johnson5340010
Devin Turner512003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard337671
Anto Saka155440
Michael Kilbane203300
Mac Uihlein844201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Theran Johnson5340010
Josh Fussell391005
Xander Mueller575114