Indiana at Northwestern - 2024 Matchup Preview

Indiana Hoosiers vs Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Indiana -12.5 (40.5) (-535) Open: -10.5
Indiana 41 - Northwestern: 24 (Big Ten)

Hoosiers (11 - 2) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 42 - 12 (38 - 14 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NW coming off BYE
IND is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Indiana -28 (SP+ IND -28.5)
Projected Score: IND: 36 - NW: 8 (44)
IND Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
IND Travel: 208 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (27 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
IND Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Indiana's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Indiana vs Florida International	-20.5	50.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Indiana vs Western Illinois	-44.5	52.5	W 77 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Indiana at UCLA	-3.5	46.5	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Indiana vs Charlotte	-28.5	50.0	W 52 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Indiana vs Maryland	-7.5	50.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Indiana vs Northwestern	-12.5	40.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Indiana vs Nebraska	-6.5	48.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Indiana vs Washington	-5.5	54.0	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Indiana at Michigan State	-7.5	53.5	W 47 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Indiana vs Michigan	-14.5	47.5	W 20 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Indiana at Ohio State	+10.5	52.5	L 15 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Indiana vs Purdue	-28.5	56.5	W 66 - 0	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Indiana at Notre Dame	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Indiana's Schedule

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IND	#106 (.12)	41% (85)	41.6	39% (117)	3.26 (38)	121	44% (48)	212	3.11 (119)	#103 (.24)	46% (120)	11.7	47% (109)	45% (118)	4.08 (95)	51	1.5	1
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	23.4	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	19.8	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IND Offense	12	41.6	37.6	40.9%	3.11	1.5	20	334	121	212	3.4	50%	49%	39%	44%	17%	.12
NW Defense	13	19.8	12.4	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IND Defense	12	11.7	14.4	45.8%	4.08	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	47%	45%	17%	.24
NW Offense	13	23.4	26.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Indiana	12	29:25	19.7	37%	35%	5.5	51	1.5	1	6.1	1.8	2	26.5
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IND Offense	12	50% (68)	39% (117)	36.2	121.3	3.4	13 (108)	.07 (112)	3.26 (38)	69% (105)	11% (83)	0.91 (108)
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IND Defense	12	52% (96)	47% (109)	-	-	-	-	.14 (65)	3.24 (100)	75% (80)	10% (58)	0.85 (14)
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IND Offense	12	49% (70)	44% (48)	17.9	30.5	212.3	7	11.9	18 (81)	10 (56)	.26 (76)	1.5 (119)	30% (43)	28% (91)	.16 (118)	6% (82)	1.9 (107)
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IND Defense	12	47% (36)	45% (118)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.39 (117)	1.6 (77)	29% (115)	33% (104)	.41 (110)	6% (69)	2.2 (103)
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)

Indiana's Power Ratings
Indiana's Power Rating: 17.50 #10
Indiana's Offense Rating: 28.20 #6
Indiana's Defense Rating: 4.35 #24
2024 Talent Rating: 361.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Indiana's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
Indiana's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.1 #11
Indiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
Indiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.4 #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Indiana: 17.50 Northwestern: -9.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Indiana: 20.1 Northwestern: -8.2

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.06 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 367.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Indiana Scoring
Offense: 41.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.6
Defense: 11.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 14.4

Indiana's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Indiana 36
Northwestern 8

Projected Total Points: 44

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.4

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Northwestern	24	Indiana	41	Indiana -12.5	Indiana	40.5	Over
2019	11/02	Indiana	34	Northwestern	3	Indiana -8.5	Indiana	44.5	Under
2016	10/22	Northwestern	24	Indiana	14	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	54.0	Under
2012	09/29	Northwestern	44	Indiana	29
2011	10/29	Indiana	38	Northwestern	59
2010	10/30	Indiana	17	Northwestern	20
2009	10/24	Northwestern	29	Indiana	28
2008	10/25	Indiana	21	Northwestern	19
2007	11/10	Northwestern	31	Indiana	28
2004	10/09	Northwestern	31	Indiana	24
2003	10/11	Indiana	31	Northwestern	37
2002	11/02	Northwestern	41	Indiana	37
2001	11/03	Indiana	56	Northwestern	21
2000	10/06	Northwestern	52	Indiana	33

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	10	1	1 Overs
Indiana	4	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 4	2 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 10	1 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 2

(#10) IND at (#100) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	IND	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#10	#100
SP+SP+	#11	#101
Perf GradeGrade	#1	#111
OffenseOff	#2	#131
DefenseDef	#4	#47
Spec TeamsST	#4	#123
TalentTal	#57	#52
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#82

Indiana Notes(12/24) Signed QB Mendoza (Cal)/RB Hemby (MD)
(12/5) Co-OC Sunseri hired as UCLA OC after '24
(11/24) Off awful vs OSU, 153 total yards. Def wilted
(11/13) Off human vs Mich, Rgame awful (40 yds, 1.4 ypc)
(11/2) Run Def killed MSU. Off 47 pts but #'s bad
(11/1) 3-0, avg 27 ppg margin of victory in Oct
(10/28) QB Rourke (inj) could play vs Michigan St
(10/19) 500 yds, owned Nebraska. Def was good, fun team
(9/28) 500+ yds vs MD. Overcame 5 TOs, still won
(9/19) V good WR's. Cooper top 5 M2M, 4 good options.
(9/1) Grounded FIU, 234 yds rushing (6 ypc). Def was good
(8/4) Cignetti is cocky/confident & wins everywhere.
Indiana Injury Report

Northwestern Notes(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job
(8/1) New OC Lujan (FCS/SDSU) v interesting hire
Northwestern Injury Report

Indiana on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	IND Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#47
SuccessSuc	#85	#83
ExplosiveExp	#114	#6
PPAPPA	#106	#33
PowerPwr	#6	#83
SP+SP+	#18	#51
Pts POPPO	#119	#56
HavocHav	#88	#115

Indiana Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	IND Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#33	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#73
Run ExplRExp	#108	#31
PPAExp	#112	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	#38	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#9	#84
TackleTak	-	#102

Indiana Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	IND Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#5	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#119	#9
PPAExp	#76	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#36	#41
F7 HavocF7	#83	#105
DB HavocDB	#82	#101

Northwestern on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	IND Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#131	#4
SuccessSuc	#110	#120
ExplosiveExp	#108	#26
PPAPPA	#113	#103
PowerPwr	#125	#24
SP+SP+	#124	#15
Pts POPPO	#48	#95
HavocHav	#67	#59

Northwestern Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	IND Def
Run GameRun	#129	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#109
Run ExplRExp	#128	#14
PPAExp	#120	#65
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#100
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#81
TackleTak	-	#94

Northwestern Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	IND Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#118
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#77
PPAExp	#100	#117
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#11
F7 HavocF7	#88	#58
DB HavocDB	#23	#69

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

IND 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Indiana 12.5 (40.5)
Indiana won at Northwestern this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Indiana beat Northwestern in 2024 (41-24)

IND's OC Mike Shanahan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kurtis Rourke (Tr)	222	320	69%	3042	29	5	9.5
Tayven Jackson	23	37	62%	349	4	1	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justice Ellison (Tr)	159	848	10	5.3	47
Ty Son Lawton	141	668	12	4.7	29
Kaelon Black (Tr)	46	251	2	5.5	21
Elijah Green (Tr)	29	201	5	6.9	51

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Sarratt (Tr)	53	957	8	18.1	84
Omar Cooper Jr.	28	594	7	21.2	69
Myles Price (Tr)	38	466	3	12.3	41
Ke'Shawn Williams (Tr)	39	448	5	11.5	52

View Indiana's Full Roster

IND's DC Bryant Haines (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aiden Fisher (Tr)	118	6	2	3	4
Jailin Walker (Tr)	82	10	2	5	8
Shawn Asbury II (Tr)	69	5	2	1	4
D'Angelo Ponds	55	5	0	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mikail Kamara (Tr)	46	14	9	6	1
James Carpenter (Tr)	37	11	5	5	2
Tyrique Tucker (Tr)	24	5	3	4	1
Lanell Carr	39	5	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Angelo Ponds	55	5	0	0	9
Jailin Walker (Tr)	82	10	2	5	8
Jamari Sharpe	13	1	1	0	6

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	0	0	5
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4