Wisconsin at Northwestern - 2024 Matchup Preview

Wisconsin Badgers vs Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wisconsin -9.5 (42.5) (-375) Open: -7.0
Wisconsin 23 - Northwestern: 3 (Big Ten)

Badgers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (25 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WIS 2nd straight Road Game
WIS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Wisconsin -12.5 (SP+ WIS -11)
Projected Score: WIS: 28 - NW: 15 (43)
WIS Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
WIS Travel: 112 miles

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WIS Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Wisconsin vs Western Michigan	-24.0	57.0	W 28 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/7	Wisconsin vs South Dakota	-17.5	44.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/14	Wisconsin vs Alabama	+15.5	51.0	L 10 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Wisconsin at USC	+14.0	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/5	Wisconsin vs Purdue	-12.0	44.5	W 52 - 6	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Wisconsin at Rutgers	+1.0	43.5	W 42 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Wisconsin vs Northwestern	-9.5	42.5	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wisconsin vs Penn State	+6.5	47.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/2	Wisconsin at Iowa	+2.5	40.0	L 10 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Wisconsin vs Oregon	+13.5	49.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Wisconsin at Nebraska	+1.5	40.5	L 25 - 44	O	N
Fri 11/29	Wisconsin vs Minnesota	+1.5	40.5	L 7 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WIS	#97 (.14)	42% (73)	22.6	46% (39)	3.16 (46)	154	38% (107)	197	4.02 (57)	#80 (.18)	43% (88)	23.1	45% (86)	42% (81)	4.17 (105)	37.5	1.5	1
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)	17.8	39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)	26.3	44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WIS	#97 (.14)	42% (73)		46% (39)	3.16 (46)	154	38% (107)	197	4.02 (57)	#80 (.18)	43% (88)		45% (86)	42% (81)	4.17 (105)	37.5	1.5	1
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WIS Offense	12	22.6	24.5	42.2%	4.02	1.5	19	351	154	197	4.4	51%	49%	46%	38%	17%	.14
NW Defense	12	26.3	26.3	45%	3.74	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	44%	46%	15%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WIS Defense	12	23.1	32.8	43.4%	4.17	1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	45%	42%	12%	.18
NW Offense	12	17.8	17.8	37.1%	3.02	1.5	16	285	99	186	3.4	45%	54%	39%	36%	19%	.02

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wisconsin	12	29:21	18.8	36%	60%	5.3	37.5	1.5	1	3.5	1.4	0	27.7
Northwestern	12	29:49	16	33%	50%	4.8	38.8	1.5	1.3	4.8	1.9	3	28

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WIS Offense	12	51% (70)	46% (39)	34.9	154.1	4.4	19 (73)	.12 (75)	3.16 (46)	75% (58)	8% (37)	0.8 (129)
NW Defense	12	47% (26)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.07 (42)	2.99 (63)	69% (47)	8% (107)	0.86 (15)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WIS Defense	12	54% (110)	45% (86)	-	-	-	-	.15 (81)	3.27 (105)	68% (36)	7% (130)	0.97 (60)
NW Offense	12	45% (106)	39% (113)	29.3	98.6	3.4	12 (114)	.07 (102)	2.63 (124)	66% (112)	11% (98)	1.1 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WIS Offense	12	49% (65)	38% (107)	17.3	30.4	196.7	6.5	11.4	14 (108)	10 (63)	.16 (102)	1.5 (100)	30% (34)	27% (111)	.15 (128)	9% (132)	1.8 (122)
NW Defense	12	53% (110)	46% (117)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.25 (77)	1.4 (13)	27% (128)	35% (116)	.28 (55)	7% (33)	1.8 (24)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WIS Defense	12	45% (22)	42% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.25 (76)	1.3 (5)	28% (123)	28% (32)	.24 (42)	5% (92)	1.8 (19)
NW Offense	12	54% (31)	36% (116)	17.6	32.7	186.1	5.7	10.6	7 (130)	11 (72)	.02 (132)	1.3 (134)	35% (119)	31% (79)	.2 (109)	8% (121)	1.8 (119)

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 4.16 #45
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #29
Wisconsin's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Wisconsin's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 4.16 Northwestern: -9.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 3.0 Northwestern: -8.2

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.06 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Wisconsin's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Wisconsin 28
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Wisconsin 21
Northwestern 18

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
Wisconsin 25
Northwestern 23

Total Points: 48

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Northwestern	3	Wisconsin	23	Wisconsin -9.5	Wisconsin	42.5	Under
2023	11/11	Wisconsin	10	Northwestern	24	Wisconsin -9.5	Northwestern	43.5	Under
2022	10/08	Northwestern	7	Wisconsin	42	Wisconsin -10	Wisconsin	44.5	Over
2021	11/13	Wisconsin	35	Northwestern	7	Wisconsin -26.0	Wisconsin	41.5	Over
2020	11/21	Northwestern	17	Wisconsin	7	Wisconsin -7.5	Northwestern	43.0	Under
2019	09/28	Wisconsin	24	Northwestern	15	Wisconsin -23	Northwestern	46.0	Under
2018	10/27	Northwestern	31	Wisconsin	17	Wisconsin -4.5	Northwestern	50.0	Under
2017	09/30	Wisconsin	33	Northwestern	24	Wisconsin -16.5	Northwestern	50.5	Over
2016	11/05	Northwestern	7	Wisconsin	21	Wisconsin -6.5	Wisconsin	41.5	Under
2015	11/21	Wisconsin	7	Northwestern	13	Wisconsin -10.5	Northwestern	41.5	Under
2014	10/04	Northwestern	20	Wisconsin	14	Wisconsin -9.5	Northwestern	0
2013	10/12	Wisconsin	35	Northwestern	6	Wisconsin -10	Wisconsin	0
2010	11/27	Wisconsin	70	Northwestern	23
2009	11/21	Northwestern	33	Wisconsin	31
2006	10/07	Wisconsin	41	Northwestern	9
2005	10/08	Northwestern	51	Wisconsin	48
2004	10/23	Wisconsin	24	Northwestern	12
2003	10/25	Northwestern	16	Wisconsin	7
2000	09/22	Wisconsin	44	Northwestern	47

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	9	7	3 Overs
Wisconsin	10	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 6	5 - 7	2 - 4	3 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 13	7 - 5	3 - 3	4 - 2

(#45) WIS at (#100) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WIS	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#45	#100
SP+SP+	#60	#101
Perf GradeGrade	#78	#111
OffenseOff	#72	#131
DefenseDef	#86	#47
Spec TeamsST	#15	#123
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#29	#82

Wisconsin Notes(12/16) Signed QB Billy Edwards (MD)
(12/6) Hired OC Jeff Grimes (Bay/KU)
(11/29) How does Fickell address the offense for '25
(11/29) 5 str L's to finish. Offense is untenable. Bad vibes
(11/29) 22 year bowl streak over, was CFB longest
(11/23) 4 str L's, Locke good, Def torched by Nebraska
(11/18) Fight w/ Oreg, Locke awful, Rgame bad, OC fired
(11/17) OC Longo fired after Oregon loss
(11/2) Locke is awful. Rgame avg at best. Longo Off bad
(10/27) Rgame awful vs PSU, Lock bad INT. < 300 yds
(10/22) Def stop rate is 75% (#10) into PSU/Iowa games
(10/19) Off enough, Def great vs NW. Locke meh
Wisconsin Injury Report

Northwestern Notes(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job
(8/1) New OC Lujan (FCS/SDSU) v interesting hire
Northwestern Injury Report

Wisconsin on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#47
SuccessSuc	#73	#106
ExplosiveExp	#130	#16
PPAPPA	#97	#57
PowerPwr	#67	#83
SP+SP+	#100	#51
Pts POPPO	#57	#64
HavocHav	#90	#77

Wisconsin Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#71	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#39	#80
Run ExplRExp	#129	#15
PPAExp	#75	#42
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#46	#63
Stuff RateStuff	#43	#40
TackleTak	-	#102

Wisconsin Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#117
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#13
PPAExp	#102	#77
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#6	#41
F7 HavocF7	#37	#107
DB HavocDB	#132	#33

Northwestern on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	WIS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#131	#86
SuccessSuc	#123	#88
ExplosiveExp	#101	#11
PPAPPA	#129	#80
PowerPwr	#125	#73
SP+SP+	#124	#22
Pts POPPO	#127	#105
HavocHav	#118	#124

Northwestern Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	WIS Def
Run GameRun	#129	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#86
Run ExplRExp	#20	#60
PPAExp	#102	#81
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#86
TackleTak	-	#13

Northwestern Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	WIS Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#41
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#81
Pass ExplPExl	#134	#5
PPAExp	#132	#76
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#66
F7 HavocF7	#98	#130
DB HavocDB	#121	#92

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

WIS 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Wisconsin 9.5 (42.5)
Wisconsin won at Northwestern this year (23-3)

Previous Matchups
Wisconsin beat Northwestern last year (23-3)
Northwestern beat Wisconsin in 2023 (24-10)
Wisconsin beat Northwestern in 2022 (42-7)

WIS's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Braedyn Locke	164	296	55%	1936	13	10	6.5
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)	43	68	63%	422	1	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)	190	864	10	4.5	55
Darrion Dupree	79	317	1	4.0	32
Cade Yacamelli	33	274	2	8.3	45
Chez Mellusi	56	232	3	4.1	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vinny Anthony	39	672	4	17.2	63
Will Pauling	42	407	3	9.7	28
Trech Kekahuna	25	339	2	13.6	69
CJ Williams	16	248	2	15.5	50

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Mike Tressel (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Hunter Wohler	71	1	0	0	6
Christian Alliegro	66	5	3	0	1
Preston Zachman	58	3	0	0	4
Jake Chaney	55	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Hills (Tr)	26	6	3	2	1
Christian Alliegro	66	5	3	0	1
John Pius (Tr)	21	4	3	3	0
Sebastian Cheeks (Tr)	12	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Hunter Wohler	71	1	0	6
Ben Barten	22	0	1	5
Nyzier Fourqurean	51	2	1	5

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	0	0	5
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4