Ohio State at Northwestern - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#1)Ohio State Buckeyes vs Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Ohio State -28 (43.5) (-9000) Open: -30.5
Ohio State 31 - Northwestern: 7 (Big Ten)

Buckeyes (14 - 2) (10 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Day (56 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 13 (30 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 15 MPH
NW coming off BYE
OSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ohio State -40.5 (SP+ OSU -39.5)
Projected Score: OSU: 41 - NW: 1 (42)
OSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
OSU Travel: 276 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OSU Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ohio State vs Akron	-50.5	58.5	W 52 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Ohio State vs Western Michigan	-37.5	54.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Ohio State vs Marshall	-40.0	57.0	W 49 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Ohio State at Michigan State	-23.5	48.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Ohio State vs Iowa	-17.0	46.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ohio State at Oregon	-3.5	54.5	L 31 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ohio State vs Nebraska	-25.0	48.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ohio State at Penn State	-3.0	47.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Ohio State vs Purdue	-37.5	55.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Ohio State vs Northwestern	-28.0	43.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/23	Ohio State vs Indiana	-10.5	52.5	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Ohio State vs Michigan	-20.5	41.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 12/21	Ohio State vs Tennessee	-7.5	47.0	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Ohio State vs Oregon	-2.5	55.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Fri 1/10	Ohio State vs Texas	-6.5	51.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Mon 1/20	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-8.5	45.5	W 34 - 23	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)	35.7	48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)	12.9	39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)	17.8	39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)	26.3	44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)		48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)		39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Offense	16	35.7	29.7	51.8%	4.6	0.8	17	347	137	211	5	49%	50%	48%	56%	12%	.43
NW Defense	12	26.3	26.3	45%	3.74	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	44%	46%	15%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Defense	16	12.9	17.3	36.3%	2.05	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	39%	34%	19%	-.01
NW Offense	12	17.8	17.8	37.1%	3.02	1.5	16	285	99	186	3.4	45%	54%	39%	36%	19%	.02

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio State	16	24:27	16.9	42%	70%	3.4	31.6	0.8	1.1	5.1	2.4	2	28.8
Northwestern	12	29:49	16	33%	50%	4.8	38.8	1.5	1.3	4.8	1.9	3	28

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Offense	16	49% (77)	48% (19)	27.3	136.8	5	28 (25)	.31 (8)	3.37 (15)	76% (48)	7% (7)	1.11 (16)
NW Defense	12	47% (26)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.07 (42)	2.99 (63)	69% (47)	8% (107)	0.86 (15)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Defense	16	53% (90)	39% (26)	-	-	-	-	.01 (15)	2.9 (48)	67% (33)	13% (16)	0.87 (20)
NW Offense	12	45% (106)	39% (113)	29.3	98.6	3.4	12 (114)	.07 (102)	2.63 (124)	66% (112)	11% (98)	1.1 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Offense	16	50% (60)	56% (1)	16.7	23.4	210.6	9	12.6	31 (6)	9 (48)	.58 (1)	1.6 (70)	27% (7)	37% (12)	.55 (6)	5% (42)	2.1 (41)
NW Defense	12	53% (110)	46% (117)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.25 (77)	1.4 (13)	27% (128)	35% (116)	.28 (55)	7% (33)	1.8 (24)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Defense	16	46% (35)	34% (8)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.02 (2)	1.5 (28)	32% (74)	30% (66)	.16 (13)	6% (61)	1.7 (6)
NW Offense	12	54% (31)	36% (116)	17.6	32.7	186.1	5.7	10.6	7 (130)	11 (72)	.02 (132)	1.3 (134)	35% (119)	31% (79)	.2 (109)	8% (121)	1.8 (119)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.14 #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 29.14 #5
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -3.55 #1
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 75% #2
Ohio State's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.2 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #3
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.2 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 32.14 Northwestern: -9.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 31.2 Northwestern: -8.2

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.06 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.7
Defense: 12.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.3

Ohio State's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 41
Northwestern 1

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 20
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 34

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 30
Northwestern 16

Total Points: 46

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Northwestern	7	Ohio State	31	Ohio State -28	Northwestern	43.5	Under
2022	11/05	Northwestern	7	Ohio State	21	Ohio State -37.5	Northwestern	55.0	Under
2020	12/19	Ohio State	22	Northwestern	10	Ohio State -16.5	Northwestern	57.5	Under
2019	10/18	Northwestern	3	Ohio State	52	Ohio State -26.5	Ohio State	50.0	Over
2018	12/01	Ohio State	45	Northwestern	24	Ohio State -16.5	Ohio State	62.5	Over
2016	10/29	Ohio State	24	Northwestern	20	Ohio State -24	Northwestern	53.5	Under
2013	10/05	Northwestern	30	Ohio State	40	Ohio State -5.5	Ohio State	0
2008	11/08	Northwestern	10	Ohio State	45
2007	09/22	Ohio State	58	Northwestern	7
2006	11/11	Northwestern	10	Ohio State	54
2005	11/12	Ohio State	48	Northwestern	7
2004	10/02	Northwestern	33	Ohio State	27
2003	09/27	Ohio State	20	Northwestern	0
2002	10/05	Northwestern	16	Ohio State	27
2001	10/06	Ohio State	38	Northwestern	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	1	4	2 Overs
Ohio State	14	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	3 - 4	1 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 8	4 - 3	2 - 2	2 - 1

(#1) OSU at (#100) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OSU	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#1	#100
SP+SP+	#1	#101
Perf GradeGrade	#2	#111
OffenseOff	#5	#131
DefenseDef	#2	#47
Spec TeamsST	#11	#123
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#2	#82

Ohio State Notes(12/17) QB's Noland (Fr) & Brown (Jr) left via portal
(12/1) Off awful, Rgame abysmal, Howard 2 Int in UM L
(12/1) 20 mil roster, still can't beat U. Coaching fail
(11/24) Mauled IU, D held to 153 yds. Off was OK
(11/19) Starting C McLaughlin out for season (ACL)
(11/18) Flat start vs NW, Howard OK, Rgame just OK
(11/3) OL was great considering injuries. Rgame beat PSU
(11/2) Def owned Penn St. Howard tough, Rgame alive
(10/26) Backup LT went down in Nebraska game
(10/22) Starting LT Simmons out for season
(10/12) Def torched by Oregon. Judkins/Downs vanished
(10/6) B2B drubbings (MSU/Iowa). Top #s, Rzone esp
Ohio State Injury Report

Northwestern Notes(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job
(8/1) New OC Lujan (FCS/SDSU) v interesting hire
Northwestern Injury Report

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#5	#47
SuccessSuc	#3	#106
ExplosiveExp	#17	#16
PPAPPA	#1	#57
PowerPwr	#5	#83
SP+SP+	#3	#51
Pts POPPO	#15	#64
HavocHav	#14	#77

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#19	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#19	#80
Run ExplRExp	#16	#15
PPAExp	#8	#42
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#15	#63
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#40
TackleTak	-	#102

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#117
Pass ExplPExl	#70	#13
PPAExp	#1	#77
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#41
F7 HavocF7	#7	#107
DB HavocDB	#42	#33

Northwestern on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	OSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#131	#2
SuccessSuc	#123	#7
ExplosiveExp	#101	#15
PPAPPA	#129	#2
PowerPwr	#125	#1
SP+SP+	#124	#1
Pts POPPO	#127	#1
HavocHav	#118	#22

Northwestern Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#129	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#26
Run ExplRExp	#20	#20
PPAExp	#102	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#97
TackleTak	-	#12

Northwestern Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#8
Pass ExplPExl	#134	#28
PPAExp	#132	#2
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#18
F7 HavocF7	#98	#16
DB HavocDB	#121	#61

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'24 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wrigley Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 54° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Ohio State 28.0 (43.5)
Ohio State won at Northwestern this year (31-7)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Northwestern last year (31-7)
Ohio State beat Northwestern in 2022 (21-7)

OSU's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Howard (Tr)	309	423	73%	4010	35	10	9.5
Devin Brown	11	20	55%	114	1	0	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins (Tr)	194	1060	14	5.5	86
TreVeyon Henderson	144	1016	10	7.1	66
Will Howard (Tr)	105	226	7	2.2	19
James Peoples	49	197	2	4.0	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	76	1315	15	17.3	70
Emeka Egbuka	81	1011	10	12.5	68
Carnell Tate	52	733	4	14.1	40
TreVeyon Henderson	27	284	1	10.5	75

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7
Sonny Styles	100	11	6	0	5
Caleb Downs (Tr)	81	8	1	1	6
Lathan Ransom	75	9	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.T. Tuimoloau	61	22	13	5	3
Jack Sawyer	59	9	9	8	6
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7
Sonny Styles	100	11	6	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davison Igbinosun	45	2	0	0	9
Jordan Hancock	48	2	1	1	8
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	0	0	5
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4