Ohio State at Northwestern - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ohio State logo Ohio State Buckeyes vs Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Ohio State -28 (43.5) (-9000)  Open: -30.5
Ohio State 31 - Northwestern: 7  (Big Ten)

 
Buckeyes (14 - 2) (10 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Day (56 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 13 (30 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Wind: 15 MPH
NW coming off BYE
OSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ohio State -40.5  (SP+ OSU -39.5)

Projected Score: OSU: 41 - NW: 1 (42)
OSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
OSU Travel: 282 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ohio State vs Akron-50.558.5W 52 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Ohio State vs Western Michigan-37.554.5W 56 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Ohio State vs Marshall-40.057.0W 49 - 14ON
Sat 9/28 Ohio State at Michigan State-23.548.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 10/5 Ohio State vs Iowa-17.046.0W 35 - 7UY
Sat 10/12 Ohio State at Oregon-3.554.5L 31 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ohio State vs Nebraska-25.048.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 11/2 Ohio State at Penn State-3.047.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 11/9 Ohio State vs Purdue-37.555.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 11/16 Ohio State vs Northwestern-28.043.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 11/23 Ohio State vs Indiana-10.552.5W 38 - 15OY
Sat 11/30 Ohio State vs Michigan-20.541.5L 10 - 13UN
Sat 12/21 Ohio State vs Tennessee-7.547.0W 42 - 17OY
Wed 1/1 Ohio State vs Oregon-2.555.5W 41 - 21OY
Fri 1/10 Ohio State vs Texas-6.551.5W 28 - 14UY
Mon 1/20 Ohio State vs Notre Dame-8.545.5W 34 - 23OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Northwestern vs Miami (OH)-4.043.0W 13 - 6UY
Fri 9/6 Northwestern vs Duke-2.537.5L 20 - 26ON
Sat 9/14 Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois-26.538.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/21 Northwestern at Washington+11.542.5L 5 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Northwestern vs Indiana+12.540.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 10/11 Northwestern at Maryland+11.045.0W 37 - 10OY
Sat 10/19 Northwestern vs Wisconsin+9.542.5L 3 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Northwestern at Iowa+16.538.5L 14 - 40ON
Sat 11/2 Northwestern at Purdue+3.044.5W 26 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Northwestern vs Ohio State+28.043.5L 7 - 31UY
Sat 11/23 Northwestern at Michigan+10.535.5L 6 - 50ON
Sat 11/30 Northwestern vs Illinois+8.542.5L 28 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)35.748% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)12.939% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)17.839% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)26.344% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)39% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)44% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Offense1635.729.751.8%4.60.817347137211549%50%48%56%12%.43
NW Defense1226.326.345%3.741.3 - - - - - 47%53%44%46%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Defense1612.917.336.3%2.051.1 - - - - - 53%46%39%34%19%-.01
NW Offense1217.817.837.1%3.021.516285991863.445%54%39%36%19%.02

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio State1624:2716.942%70%3.431.60.81.15.12.4228.8
Northwestern1229:491633%50%4.838.81.51.34.81.9328
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Offense1649% (77)48% (19)27.3136.8528 (25).31 (8)3.37 (15)76% (48)7% (7)1.11 (16)
NW Defense1247% (26)44% (80) - - - - .07 (42)2.99 (63)69% (47)8% (107)0.86 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Defense1653% (90)39% (26) - - - - .01 (15)2.9 (48)67% (33)13% (16)0.87 (20)
NW Offense1245% (106)39% (113)29.398.63.412 (114).07 (102)2.63 (124)66% (112)11% (98)1.1 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Offense1650% (60)56% (1)16.723.4210.6912.631 (6)9 (48).58 (1)1.6 (70)27% (7)37% (12).55 (6)5% (42)2.1 (41)
NW Defense1253% (110)46% (117) - - - - - - 10 (66).25 (77)1.4 (13)27% (128)35% (116).28 (55)7% (33)1.8 (24)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Defense1646% (35)34% (8) - - - - - - 9 (76).02 (2)1.5 (28)32% (74)30% (66).16 (13)6% (61)1.7 (6)
NW Offense1254% (31)36% (116)17.632.7186.15.710.67 (130)11 (72).02 (132)1.3 (134)35% (119)31% (79).2 (109)8% (121)1.8 (119)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.14  #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 29.14  #5
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -3.55  #1
2024 Talent Rating: 1034.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 75%  #2
Ohio State's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.2  #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5  #3
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.2  #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 32.14   Northwestern: -9.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 31.2   Northwestern: -8.2




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.06  #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18  #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29  #83
2024 Talent Rating: 730.00  #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2  #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5  #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.7
Defense: 12.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.3

Ohio State's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 41
Northwestern 1


Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 20
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 34

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 30
Northwestern 16

Total Points: 46
Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Northwestern7Ohio State31Ohio State -28Northwestern43.5Under
202211/05Northwestern7Ohio State21Ohio State -37.5Northwestern55.0Under
202012/19Ohio State22Northwestern10Ohio State -16.5Northwestern57.5Under
201910/18Northwestern3Ohio State52Ohio State -26.5Ohio State50.0Over
201812/01Ohio State45Northwestern24Ohio State -16.5Ohio State62.5Over
201610/29Ohio State24Northwestern20Ohio State -24Northwestern53.5Under
201310/05Northwestern30Ohio State40Ohio State -5.5Ohio State0
200811/08Northwestern10Ohio State45
200709/22Ohio State58Northwestern7
200611/11Northwestern10Ohio State54
200511/12Ohio State48Northwestern7
200410/02Northwestern33Ohio State27
200309/27Ohio State20Northwestern0
200210/05Northwestern16Ohio State27
200110/06Ohio State38Northwestern20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern142 Overs
Ohio State1434 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 73 - 41 - 22 - 2
Road Teams7 - 84 - 32 - 22 - 1

(#1) OSU at (#100) NW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOSUNW
Power RatePwr #1 #100
SP+SP+ #1 #101
Perf GradeGrade #2 #111
OffenseOff #5 #131
DefenseDef #2 #47
Spec TeamsST #11 #123
TalentTal #5 #50
Blue ChipsBC% #2 #82

Ohio State Notes
(12/17) QB's Noland (Fr) & Brown (Jr) left via portal
(12/1) Off awful, Rgame abysmal, Howard 2 Int in UM L
(12/1) 20 mil roster, still can't beat U. Coaching fail
(11/24) Mauled IU, D held to 153 yds. Off was OK
(11/19) Starting C McLaughlin out for season (ACL)
(11/18) Flat start vs NW, Howard OK, Rgame just OK
(11/3) OL was great considering injuries. Rgame beat PSU
(11/2) Def owned Penn St. Howard tough, Rgame alive
(10/26) Backup LT went down in Nebraska game
(10/22) Starting LT Simmons out for season
(10/12) Def torched by Oregon. Judkins/Downs vanished

Northwestern Notes
(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job
Ohio State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffNW Def
Perf GradePerf #5 #47
SuccessSuc #3 #106
ExplosiveExp #17 #16
PPAPPA #1 #57
PowerPwr #5 #83
SP+SP+ #3 #51
Pts POPPO #15 #64
HavocHav #14 #77
Ohio State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffNW Def
Run GameRun #19 #76
Run SuccessRSuc #19 #80
Run ExplRExp #16 #15
PPAExp #8 #42
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #15 #63
Stuff RateStuff #48 #40
TackleTak -  #102
Ohio State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffNW Def
Pass GamePass #18 #51
Pass SuccessPSuc #1 #117
Pass ExplPExl #70 #13
PPAExp #1 #77
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #97 #41
F7 HavocF7 #7 #107
DB HavocDB #42 #33
Northwestern on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatNW OffOSU Def
Perf GradePerf #131 #2
SuccessSuc #123 #7
ExplosiveExp #101 #15
PPAPPA #129 #2
PowerPwr #125 #1
SP+SP+ #124 #1
Pts POPPO #127 #1
HavocHav #118 #22
Northwestern Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
NW OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #129 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #26
Run ExplRExp #20 #20
PPAExp #102 #15
Run BlockR Blk #82 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #48
Stuff RateStuff #129 #97
TackleTak -  #12
Northwestern Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatNW OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #130 #7
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #8
Pass ExplPExl #134 #28
PPAExp #132 #2
Pass Block/RushP Blk #61 #18
F7 HavocF7 #98 #16
DB HavocDB #121 #61
Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wrigley Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 54° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 12
Ohio State 28.0 (43.5)
Ohio State won at Northwestern this year (31-7)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Northwestern last year (31-7)
Ohio State beat Northwestern in 2022 (21-7)

  
OSU's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Howard (Tr)30942373%401035109.5
Devin Brown112055%114105.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinshon Judkins (Tr)1941060145.586
TreVeyon Henderson1441016107.166
Will Howard (Tr)10522672.219
James Peoples4919724.018
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith7613151517.370
Emeka Egbuka8110111012.568
Carnell Tate52733414.140
TreVeyon Henderson27284110.575

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Simon11213707
Sonny Styles10011605
Caleb Downs (Tr)818116
Lathan Ransom759112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.T. Tuimoloau61221353
Jack Sawyer599986
Cody Simon11213707
Sonny Styles10011605
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun452009
Jordan Hancock482118
Cody Simon11213707

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Lausch15929654%1714785.8
Mike Wright (Tr)396758%356015.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Porter12650164.044
Joseph Himon II5225724.951
Jack Lausch8721322.429
Caleb Komolafe5013902.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
A.J. Henning59603410.246
Bryce Kirtz39598015.355
Thomas Gordon2725219.326
Cam Porter2317407.628

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Uihlein844201
Xander Mueller575114
Theran Johnson5340010
Devin Turner512003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard337671
Anto Saka155440
Michael Kilbane203300
Mac Uihlein844201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Theran Johnson5340010
Josh Fussell391005
Xander Mueller575114