Iowa at Michigan State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Iowa logo Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -7 (39.5) (-278)  Open: -6.0
Michigan State 32 - Iowa: 20  (Big Ten)

 
Hawkeyes (8 - 5) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (196 - 119)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (21 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
MSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa -14   (SP+ IOWA -20.5)

Projected Score: IOWA: 28 - MSU: 14 (46)
IOWA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
IOWA Travel: 369 miles, 1 hrs behind
Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Iowa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Iowa vs Illinois State-31.5
Sat 9/7 Iowa vs Iowa State-3.035.0L 19 - 20ON
Sat 9/14 Iowa vs Troy-23.539.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Iowa at Minnesota-3.034.5W 31 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Iowa at Ohio State+17.046.0L 7 - 35UN
Sat 10/12 Iowa vs Washington-2.541.5W 40 - 16OY
Sat 10/19 Iowa at Michigan State-7.039.5L 20 - 32ON
Sat 10/26 Iowa vs Northwestern-16.538.5W 40 - 14OY
Sat 11/2 Iowa vs Wisconsin-2.540.0W 42 - 10OY
Fri 11/8 Iowa at UCLA-6.544.5L 17 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Iowa at Maryland-4.040.5W 29 - 13OY
Fri 11/29 Iowa vs Nebraska-3.541.5W 13 - 10UN
Mon 12/30 Iowa vs Missouri+1.041.0L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.045.0W 16 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan State at Maryland+7.544.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/14 Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.553.5W 40 - 0UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan State at Boston College+4.545.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/28 Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.548.5L 7 - 38UN
Fri 10/4 Michigan State at Oregon+22.553.0L 10 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan State vs Iowa+7.039.5W 32 - 20OY
Sat 10/26 Michigan State at Michigan+3.539.0L 17 - 24ON
Sat 11/2 Michigan State vs Indiana+7.553.5L 10 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Michigan State at Illinois+2.047.5L 16 - 38ON
Fri 11/22 Michigan State vs Purdue-14.049.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.546.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA#133 (-.04)33% (133)27.733% (131)2.47 (132)10934% (124)1142.86 (126)#2 (-.01)34% (5)17.835% (11)34% (6)2.65 (4)281.41.1
MSU#131 (.03)38% (115)19.338% (122)2.84 (114)8938% (99)1972.97 (125)#75 (.19)44% (95)26.145% (85)44% (105)3.89 (76)591.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Offense1427.720.832.9%2.861.4122231091143.456%43%33%34%19%-.04
MSU Defense1226.124.743.9%3.891.3 - - - - - 48%51%45%44%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Defense1417.822.834.2%2.651.1 - - - - - 45%53%35%34%16%-.01
MSU Offense1219.320.437.6%2.971.817286891972.945%54%38%38%19%.03

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa1426:2912.131%50%3.3281.41.14.91.9231.2
Michigan State1228:0516.530%50%6.8591.81.35.62.5027.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense1456% (23)33% (131)32.1108.73.411 (123)-.08 (133)2.47 (132)66% (113)12% (105)0.82 (129)
MSU Defense1248% (48)45% (85) - - - - .16 (83)3.28 (106)87% (128)10% (72)0.93 (35)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense1445% (17)35% (11) - - - - -.05 (5)2.8 (21)71% (53)9% (88)0.72 (1)
MSU Offense1245% (104)38% (122)30.988.72.97 (131)-.03 (131)2.84 (114)76% (50)12% (119)0.85 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense1443% (113)34% (124)11.523.1114.459.99 (126)9 (40).08 (125)1.4 (124)34% (99)21% (131).05 (133)7% (112)1.7 (128)
MSU Defense1251% (85)44% (105) - - - - - - 9 (87).28 (78)1.5 (26)29% (116)32% (92).36 (92)6% (66)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense1453% (113)34% (6) - - - - - - 10 (67).08 (5)1.4 (8)37% (8)25% (13).12 (3)7% (36)1.7 (4)
MSU Offense1254% (33)38% (99)18.531.8197.26.210.714 (106)13 (97).17 (101)1.4 (121)35% (113)26% (107).16 (115)7% (105)2 (97)

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 10.13 #31
Iowa's Offense Rating: 17.67 #88
Iowa's Defense Rating: 2.77 #9
2024 Talent Rating: 852.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #44
Iowa's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Iowa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8 #16
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 10.13   Michigan State: -0.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 15.8   Michigan State: -4.6




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 788.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Iowa Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

Iowa's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 28
Michigan State 14


Projected Total Points: 46
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Michigan State32Iowa20Michigan StateIowa -7Michigan State39.5Over
202309/30Iowa26Michigan State16IowaIowa -10Push36.5Over
202011/07Iowa49Michigan State7IowaIowa -5.5Iowa46.0Over
201709/30Michigan State17Iowa10Michigan StateMichigan State -3.5Michigan State44.5Under
201512/05Iowa13Michigan State16Michigan StateMichigan State -4Iowa50.0Under
201310/05Iowa14Michigan State26Michigan StateIowa -2Michigan State0
201210/13Michigan State16Iowa19Iowa
201111/12Iowa21Michigan State37Michigan State
201010/30Iowa37Michigan State6Iowa
200910/24Michigan State13Iowa15Iowa
200810/04Michigan State16Iowa13Michigan State
200710/27Iowa34Michigan State27Iowa
200410/02Iowa38Michigan State16Iowa
200309/27Michigan State20Iowa10Michigan State
200210/12Iowa44Michigan State16Iowa
200110/13Michigan State31Iowa28Michigan State
200010/06Iowa21Michigan State16Iowa
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State833 Overs
Iowa922 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 54 - 12 - 12 - 0
Road Teams5 - 121 - 40 - 21 - 2

(#31) Iowa Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.13 #31
Offense Rating: 17.67 #88
Defense Rating: 2.77 #9
Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8 #16
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #5
Talent Rating: 852.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #44
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.77 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Good in Scoring Position 3.37 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Iowa Notes
(11/23) Rgame mauled bad Terps. 3rd QB Stratton meh
(11/18) QB Sullivan out for season (ankle), Cade time?
(11/13) QB's awful, Rgame worse, Def bad vs UCLA
(11/2) Off humming, 2 straight W's. Killed Wisky
(10/30) QB McMamara out vs Wisky, Sullivan to start
(10/19) Def torched by Sparty. QB is a joke. Bad, bad loss
(10/12) Off Expl vs Wash, Rgame 220 (5.9 ypc), Def good
(10/6) Can't compete w/ elites, Pass game awful
(10/6) Def v good, Off awful outside of Kaleb Johnson
(9/8) McNamara awful vs ISU, RB/OL v good. Pass D bad
Iowa     Ratings Matchup     Michigan State
Power #31
#70
Off #88
#101
Def #9
#75
Talent #20
#34
SP+ #16
#90
SP+ Off #69
#119
SP+ Def #5
#49

Rematch from Week 8
Iowa 7.0 (39.5)
Michigan State won vs Iowa this year (32-20)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Iowa last year (32-20)
Iowa beat Michigan State in 2023 (26-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 58°

Team Information
Injuries: IOWA | MSU
Depth Chart: IOWA | MSU
Rosters: IOWA | MSU
(#70) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 788.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Michigan State Notes
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)


  
Iowa's OC Tim Lester
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cade McNamara10417261%1017655.9
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)385372%474338.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamari Moulton8447335.668
Jaziun Patterson6330924.939
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)4715143.230
Max White63505.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob Gill (Tr)35411211.759
Reece Vander Zee14176312.619
Zach Ortwerth11133012.152
Addison Ostrenga1511417.629

View Iowa's Full Roster
Iowa's DC Phil Parker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hurkett5612720
Deshaun Lee421004
Xavier Nwankpa410001
Aaron Graves338623
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hurkett5612720
Aaron Graves338623
Max Llewellyn228673
Brian Allen175321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshaun Lee421004
Aaron Graves338623
Max Llewellyn228673

Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)19232459%241513127.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)202969%202007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams13364924.963
Aidan Chiles (Tr)9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Makhi Frazier72103.08
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Jack Velling (Tr)36411111.434
Aziah Johnson16276217.352
Jaron Glover15192212.834

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Nikai Martinez (Tr)513012
Edward Woods494123
Malik Spencer441002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Anthony Jones (Tr)254250
Ken Talley62220
Alex VanSumeren163200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Brantley272007
Edward Woods494123
Malik Spencer441002