Iowa at Michigan State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Iowa logo Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -7 (39.5) (-278)  Open: -6.0
Michigan State 32 - Iowa: 20  (Big Ten)

 
Hawkeyes (8 - 5) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (196 - 119)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (21 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa -14  (SP+ IOWA -20.5)

Projected Score: IOWA: 28 - MSU: 14 (42)
IOWA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
IOWA Travel: 369 miles, 1 hrs behind
Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Iowa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Iowa vs Illinois State-31.5
Sat 9/7 Iowa vs Iowa State-3.035.0L 19 - 20ON
Sat 9/14 Iowa vs Troy-23.539.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Iowa at Minnesota-3.034.5W 31 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Iowa at Ohio State+17.046.0L 7 - 35UN
Sat 10/12 Iowa vs Washington-2.541.5W 40 - 16OY
Sat 10/19 Iowa at Michigan State-7.039.5L 20 - 32ON
Sat 10/26 Iowa vs Northwestern-16.538.5W 40 - 14OY
Sat 11/2 Iowa vs Wisconsin-2.540.0W 42 - 10OY
Fri 11/8 Iowa at UCLA-6.544.5L 17 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Iowa at Maryland-4.040.5W 29 - 13OY
Fri 11/29 Iowa vs Nebraska-3.541.5W 13 - 10UN
Mon 12/30 Iowa vs Missouri+1.041.0L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.045.0W 16 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan State at Maryland+7.544.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/14 Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.553.5W 40 - 0UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan State at Boston College+4.545.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/28 Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.548.5L 7 - 38UN
Fri 10/4 Michigan State at Oregon+22.553.0L 10 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan State vs Iowa+7.039.5W 32 - 20OY
Sat 10/26 Michigan State at Michigan+3.539.0L 17 - 24ON
Sat 11/2 Michigan State vs Indiana+7.553.5L 10 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Michigan State at Illinois+2.047.5L 16 - 38ON
Fri 11/22 Michigan State vs Purdue-14.049.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.546.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)27.744% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)17.846% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)19.345% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)26.139% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Offense1327.720.842.3%3.770.8153061851215.262%37%44%40%13%.14
MSU Defense1226.124.741.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IOWA Defense1317.822.842%3.371.8 - - - - - 46%54%46%39%17%.11
MSU Offense1219.320.441.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa1327:0515.441%50%2.826.30.81.84.52.1233.6
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense1362% (7)44% (63)35.51855.229 (18).13 (71)2.92 (89)62% (120)10% (76)1.02 (47)
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense1346% (17)46% (97) - - - - .07 (38)3.07 (84)84% (126)10% (68)0.68 (1)
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense1337% (129)40% (94)11.518.6121.56.510.69 (128)7 (26).21 (93)1.5 (93)26% (4)28% (99).2 (108)3% (7)2 (72)
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense1354% (118)39% (51) - - - - - - 16 (10).18 (39)1.5 (36)32% (76)28% (36).24 (39)7% (27)1.8 (7)
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 10.13  #31
Iowa's Offense Rating: 17.67  #88
Iowa's Defense Rating: 2.77  #9
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #44
Iowa's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Iowa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8  #16
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0  #69
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 10.13   Michigan State: -0.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 15.8   Michigan State: -4.6




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -0.955  #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47  #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30  #75
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6  #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0  #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1  #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Iowa Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

Iowa's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 28
Michigan State 14


Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa 23
Michigan State 22

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Iowa 25
Michigan State 20

Total Points: 45
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Iowa20Michigan State17Iowa -17.5Michigan State43.0Under
202410/19Michigan State32Iowa20Iowa -7Michigan State39.5Over
202309/30Iowa26Michigan State16Iowa -10Push36.5Over
202011/07Iowa49Michigan State7Iowa -5.5Iowa46.0Over
201709/30Michigan State17Iowa10Michigan State -3.5Michigan State44.5Under
201512/05Iowa13Michigan State16Michigan State -4Iowa50.0Under
201310/05Iowa14Michigan State26Iowa -2Michigan State0
201210/13Michigan State16Iowa19
201111/12Iowa21Michigan State37
201010/30Iowa37Michigan State6
200910/24Michigan State13Iowa15
200810/04Michigan State16Iowa13
200710/27Iowa34Michigan State27
200410/02Iowa38Michigan State16
200309/27Michigan State20Iowa10
200210/12Iowa44Michigan State16
200110/13Michigan State31Iowa28
200010/06Iowa21Michigan State16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State843 Overs
Iowa1023 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 54 - 22 - 22 - 0
Road Teams5 - 132 - 40 - 22 - 2

(#31) IOWA at (#70) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatIOWAMSU
Power RatePwr #31 #70
SP+SP+ #16 #90
Perf GradeGrade #9 #107
OffenseOff #34 #105
DefenseDef #8 #104
Spec TeamsST #9 #122
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #44 #31
Iowa Notes
(11/30) 5 1st downs, 0-10 on 3rd, still beat Nebraska
(11/23) Rgame mauled bad Terps. 3rd QB Stratton meh
(11/18) QB Sullivan out for season (ankle), Cade time?
(11/13) QB's awful, Rgame worse, Def bad vs UCLA
(11/2) Off humming, 2 straight W's. Killed Wisky
(10/30) QB McMamara out vs Wisky, Sullivan to start
(10/19) Def torched by Sparty. QB is a joke. Bad, bad loss
(10/12) Off Expl vs Wash, Rgame 220 (5.9 ypc), Def good
(10/6) Can't compete w/ elites, Pass game awful
(10/6) Def v good, Off awful outside of Kaleb Johnson
(9/8) McNamara awful vs ISU, RB/OL v good. Pass D bad
(9/1) QB: McNamara over Sullivan (NW, mobile)
Iowa Injury Report
Michigan State Notes
(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #34 #104
SuccessSuc #72 #69
ExplosiveExp #110 #110
PPAPPA #100 #85
PowerPwr #88 #75
SP+SP+ #69 #49
Pts POPPO #84 #98
HavocHav #31 #93
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #82 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #25
Run ExplRExp #47 #80
PPAExp #71 #36
Run BlockR Blk #4 -
OL YdsOLY #89 #37
Stuff RateStuff #110 #33
TackleTak -  #31
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #98 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #94 #111
Pass ExplPExl #93 #101
PPAExp #93 #111
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #15 #127
F7 HavocF7 #76 #64
DB HavocDB #7 #121
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMSU OffIOWA Def
Perf GradePerf #105 #8
SuccessSuc #86 #72
ExplosiveExp #118 #4
PPAPPA #105 #30
PowerPwr #101 #9
SP+SP+ #119 #5
Pts POPPO #116 #27
HavocHav #98 #51
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MSU OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #31 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #50 #97
Run ExplRExp #126 #1
PPAExp #116 #38
Run BlockR Blk #112 -
OL YdsOLY #109 #84
Stuff RateStuff #113 #115
TackleTak -  #30
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMSU OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #107 #6
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #51
Pass ExplPExl #57 #36
PPAExp #79 #39
Pass Block/RushP Blk #126 #12
F7 HavocF7 #112 #68
DB HavocDB #63 #27
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 58°
Rematch from Week 8
Iowa 7.0 (39.5)
Michigan State won vs Iowa this year (32-20)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Iowa last year (32-20)
Iowa beat Michigan State in 2023 (26-16)

  
IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cade McNamara10417261%1017655.9
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)385372%474338.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaleb Johnson2401537216.475
Kamari Moulton8447335.668
Jaziun Patterson6330924.939
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)4715143.230
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob Gill (Tr)35411211.759
Luke Lachey2823108.328
Kaleb Johnson2218828.572
Reece Vander Zee14176312.619

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Higgins1243165
Nick Jackson915357
Quinn Schulte620003
Sebastian Castro573011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hurkett5612720
Aaron Graves338623
Max Llewellyn228673
Deontae Craig437361
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Jackson915357
Jermari Harris271007
Jay Higgins1243165

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)19232459%241513127.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)202969%202007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams13364924.963
Nathan Carter11649954.360
Aidan Chiles (Tr)9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Montorie Foster46588312.840
Jack Velling (Tr)36411111.434
Aziah Johnson16276217.352

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Cal Haladay585101
Nikai Martinez (Tr)513012
Angelo Grose504102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khris Bogle378460
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Anthony Jones (Tr)254250
Ken Talley62220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Brantley272007
Edward Woods494123
Jordan Hall241012