Northwestern at Maryland Game Matchup

Northwestern Wildcats at Maryland Terrapins

Friday, October 11th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Maryland -11 (45.0) (-425) Open: -10.0
Northwestern 37 - Maryland: 10 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

MD coming off BYE
Our Line: Maryland -6 (SP+ MD -4)
Projected Score: NW: 21 - MD: 27 (49)
MD Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
NW Travel: 602 miles, 1 hrs behind

Terrapins (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Locksley (29 - 33)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (26 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
MD Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Maryland's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Maryland vs UConn	-19.0	45.5	W 50 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Maryland vs Michigan State	-7.5	44.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/14	Maryland at Virginia	+2.5	55.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Maryland vs Villanova	-22.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/28	Maryland at Indiana	+7.5	50.0	L 28 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/11	Maryland vs Northwestern	-11.0	45.0	L 10 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	Maryland vs USC	+6.5	56.5	W 29 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Maryland at Minnesota	+6.0	45.0	L 23 - 48	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Maryland at Oregon	+24.0	58.0	L 18 - 39	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Maryland vs Rutgers	-4.5	54.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/23	Maryland vs Iowa	+4.0	40.5	L 13 - 29	O	N
Sat 11/30	Maryland at Penn State	+26.5	50.5	L 7 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Maryland's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	17.8	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	26.3	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8
MD	#43 (.24)	44% (45)	23.7	42% (76)	3.07 (79)	108	45% (30)	279	4.15 (43)	#24 (.11)	41% (53)	30.4	44% (81)	39% (32)	3.62 (53)	56.5	1.6	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MD		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	13	17.8	17.6	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1
MD Defense	13	30.4	25.6	40.7%	3.62	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	39%	14%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	13	26.3	28.8	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14
MD Offense	13	23.7	25.9	44%	4.15	1.6	21	387	108	279	3.7	41%	58%	42%	45%	17%	.24

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7
Maryland	13	27:56	20.8	42%	68%	5.5	56.5	1.6	1.8	4.7	2.4	2	30.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)
MD Defense	13	50% (60)	44% (81)	-	-	-	-	.12 (57)	3.17 (87)	73% (72)	8% (116)	0.84 (8)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)
MD Offense	13	41% (121)	42% (76)	29.4	108.4	3.7	20 (61)	.17 (54)	3.07 (79)	69% (101)	10% (77)	1.07 (32)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)
MD Defense	13	49% (57)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.19 (22)	1.5 (31)	29% (118)	30% (58)	.27 (45)	6% (65)	1.8 (12)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)
MD Offense	13	58% (11)	45% (30)	23.6	36.7	278.9	7.6	11.8	27 (25)	13 (97)	.31 (56)	1.5 (98)	32% (65)	35% (28)	.32 (73)	6% (75)	2 (94)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.92 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -9.92 Maryland: -2.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -8.2 Maryland: -3.9

Maryland's Power Ratings
Maryland's Power Rating: -2.875 #89
Maryland's Offense Rating: 15.06 #107
Maryland's Defense Rating: 12.27 #92
2024 Talent Rating: 752.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Maryland's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Maryland's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.9 #86
Maryland's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #97
Maryland's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.6
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Maryland 27
Northwestern 21

Projected Total Points: 49

Maryland Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.9
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Maryland's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/11	Maryland	10	Northwestern	37	Northwestern	Maryland -11	Northwestern	45.0	Over
2023	10/28	Northwestern	33	Maryland	27	Northwestern	Maryland -14	Northwestern	48.5	Over
2022	10/22	Maryland	31	Northwestern	24	Maryland	Maryland -14	Northwestern	51.0	Over
2020	10/24	Northwestern	43	Maryland	3	Northwestern	Northwestern -14	Northwestern	51.0	Under
2017	10/14	Maryland	21	Northwestern	37	Northwestern	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	50.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Maryland	1	0	4 Overs
Northwestern	4	5	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#100) Northwestern Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.92 #100
Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51
Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.02 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Awful Pass Success 36%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.74 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Awful Pass Def Success 46%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Northwestern Notes
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job

Northwestern Ratings Matchup Maryland

Power #100

#89

Off #125

#107

Def #83

#92

Talent #50

#42

SP+ #101

#86

SP+ Off #124

#97

SP+ Def #51

#73

Rematch from Week 7
Maryland -11.0 (45.0)
Northwestern won at Maryland this year (37-10)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Maryland last year (37-10)
Northwestern beat Maryland in 2023 (33-27)
Maryland beat Northwestern in 2022 (31-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Maryland Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 53° - Wind: 7 mph

Team Information
Injuries: NW | MD
Depth Chart: NW | MD
Rosters: NW | MD

(#89) Maryland Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.875 #89
Offense Rating: 15.06 #107
Defense Rating: 12.27 #92
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.9 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #97
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73
Talent Rating: 752.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.34 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Maryland Notes
(12/3) PPG play calls: Locksley: 16.7 - Gattis 30.7
(11/24) QB Edwards hurt vs Iowa
(11/23) Run Def mauled by Iowa. Offense sucked hard
(11/18) Off cont to be awful in B1G, horrible L vs Gers
(10/19) Season saving comeback (USC) Edwards great TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) Ignore stats, murdered by NW, uncompetitive
(10/11) Special Teams is laughably awful. Bad team/staff
(10/11) Staff needs to go. Perf vs NW should do it
(10/8) Rumors are Locksley taking over play calling

Northwestern's OC Zach Lujan

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28
CJ Johnson II	11	121	0	11.0	23
Frank Covey IV	10	98	0	9.8	27
Joseph Himon II	15	96	1	6.4	22

View Northwestern's Full Roster

Northwestern's DC Tim McGarigle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	1
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	3
Robert Fitzgerald	46	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	5
Devin Turner	51	2	3

Maryland's OC Josh Gattis

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Billy Edwards	273	420	65%	2881	15	9	6.9
MJ Morris (Tr)	36	61	59%	350	5	5	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Hemby	134	607	6	4.5	75
Nolan Ray	75	374	2	5.0	48
Billy Edwards	81	150	5	1.9	15
DeJuan Williams	8	46	1	5.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Wade	29	374	2	12.9	44
Octavian Smith Jr.	30	315	2	10.5	27
Roman Hemby	40	273	1	6.8	32
Preston Howard	24	189	0	7.9	19

View Maryland's Full Roster

Maryland's DC Brian Williams

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daniel Wingate	50	7	0	1	0
Jalen Huskey (Tr)	45	3	0	0	1
Lavain Scruggs	43	1	0	0	2
Caleb Wheatland	42	7	4	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Wheatland	42	7	4	4	2
Kellan Wyatt	29	7	2	2	0
Michael Harris	34	2	1	0	0
Trey Reddick	16	3	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lavain Scruggs	43	1	0	0	2
Caleb Wheatland	42	7	4	4	2
Perry Fisher	27	1	0	0	2