Northwestern at Purdue - 2024 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Purdue -3 (44.5) (-142) Open: -1.5
Northwestern 26 - Purdue: 20 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

NW 2nd straight Road Game
PUR coming off BYE
NW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Northwestern -5.5 (SP+ NW -8)
Projected Score: NW: 26 - PUR: 20 (46)
PUR Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NW Travel: 120 miles, 1 hrs behind

Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 40 (16 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
PUR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Purdue's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Purdue vs Indiana State	-35.5	52.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Purdue vs Notre Dame	+11.5	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	Purdue at Oregon State	+1.5	51.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Purdue vs Nebraska	+10.0	47.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/5	Purdue at Wisconsin	+12.0	44.5	L 6 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	Purdue at Illinois	+22.5	47.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Purdue vs Oregon	+30.0	61.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Purdue vs Northwestern	-3.0	44.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/9	Purdue at Ohio State	+37.5	55.5	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/16	Purdue vs Penn State	+30.0	51.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/22	Purdue at Michigan State	+14.0	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Purdue at Indiana	+28.5	56.5	L 0 - 66	O	N

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)	17.8	39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)	26.3	44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)	15.8	42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)	39.9	49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	17.8	17.6	37.1%	3.02	1.5	16	285	99	186	3.4	45%	54%	39%	36%	19%	.02
PUR Defense	12	39.9	34	49.3%	4.82	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	49%	50%	12%	.39

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	26.3	28.8	45%	3.74	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	44%	46%	15%	.15
PUR Offense	12	15.8	16	40.8%	3.34	1.6	15	299	116	184	4	46%	53%	42%	40%	22%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	29:49	16	33%	50%	4.8	38.8	1.5	1.3	4.8	1.9	3	28
Purdue	12	26:50	14.6	31%	28%	5.5	51.8	1.6	0.4	5.2	1.8	0	26.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	45% (106)	39% (113)	29.3	98.6	3.4	12 (114)	.07 (102)	2.63 (124)	66% (112)	11% (98)	1.1 (20)
PUR Defense	12	53% (96)	49% (120)	-	-	-	-	.32 (134)	3.39 (120)	76% (79)	8% (109)	1.15 (124)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	47% (26)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.07 (42)	2.99 (63)	69% (47)	8% (107)	0.86 (15)
PUR Offense	12	46% (94)	42% (90)	28.8	115.5	4	9 (125)	.04 (108)	3.04 (65)	59% (126)	14% (128)	0.8 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	54% (31)	36% (116)	17.6	32.7	186.1	5.7	10.6	7 (130)	11 (72)	.02 (132)	1.3 (134)	35% (119)	31% (79)	.2 (109)	8% (121)	1.8 (119)
PUR Defense	12	47% (40)	50% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.48 (130)	1.6 (88)	28% (115)	41% (134)	.63 (134)	4% (125)	2.1 (90)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	53% (110)	46% (117)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.25 (77)	1.4 (13)	27% (128)	35% (116)	.28 (55)	7% (33)	1.8 (24)
PUR Offense	12	53% (40)	40% (93)	15.8	27.4	183.9	6.7	11.7	13 (116)	9 (48)	.16 (103)	1.5 (92)	32% (78)	31% (72)	.49 (14)	8% (118)	2.1 (29)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.92 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -9.92 Purdue: -14.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -8.2 Purdue: -16.2

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -14.71 #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
2024 Talent Rating: 740.00 #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.6
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Northwestern 26
Purdue 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 29
Purdue 19

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 27
Purdue 22

Total Points: 49

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 16
Defense: 39.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 34

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Purdue	20	Northwestern	26	Purdue -3	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2023	11/18	Northwestern	23	Purdue	15	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	47.5	Under
2022	11/19	Purdue	17	Northwestern	9	Purdue -17.5	Northwestern	44.5	Under
2021	11/20	Northwestern	14	Purdue	32	Purdue -11	Purdue	47.5	Under
2020	11/14	Purdue	20	Northwestern	27	Northwestern -3.5	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2019	11/09	Northwestern	22	Purdue	24	Purdue -0.0	Purdue	38.5	Over
2018	08/30	Purdue	27	Northwestern	31	Purdue -1	Northwestern	52.5	Over
2017	11/11	Northwestern	23	Purdue	13	Northwestern -6	Northwestern	49.5	Under
2016	11/12	Purdue	17	Northwestern	45	Northwestern -10.5	Northwestern	58.0	Over
2015	11/14	Northwestern	21	Purdue	14	Northwestern -13	Purdue	48.0	Under
2014	11/22	Purdue	14	Northwestern	38	Northwestern -2	Northwestern	0
2010	10/09	Northwestern	17	Purdue	20
2009	10/03	Purdue	21	Northwestern	27
2008	10/18	Northwestern	48	Purdue	26
2007	10/27	Purdue	35	Northwestern	17
2006	10/14	Northwestern	10	Purdue	31
2005	10/15	Purdue	29	Northwestern	34
2004	10/30	Northwestern	13	Purdue	10
2003	11/01	Purdue	34	Northwestern	14
2002	10/26	Northwestern	13	Purdue	42
2001	10/27	Purdue	32	Northwestern	27
2000	10/13	Northwestern	28	Purdue	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Purdue	10	3	4 Overs
Northwestern	12	8	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 13	2 - 9	2 - 5	0 - 4
Road Teams	13 - 9	9 - 2	4 - 0	5 - 2

(#100) NW at (#120) PUR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	PUR
Power RatePwr	#100	#120
SP+SP+	#101	#121
Perf GradeGrade	#111	#123
OffenseOff	#131	#91
DefenseDef	#47	#132
Spec TeamsST	#123	#66
TalentTal	#50	#45
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#35

Northwestern Notes
(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job

Purdue Notes
(12/8) Hired HC Barry Odom (UNLV)
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful

Northwestern on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Perf GradePerf	#131	#132
SuccessSuc	#123	#129
ExplosiveExp	#101	#112
PPAPPA	#129	#134
PowerPwr	#125	#134
SP+SP+	#124	#110
Pts POPPO	#127	#134
HavocHav	#118	#125

Northwestern Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#129	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#120
Run ExplRExp	#20	#124
PPAExp	#102	#134
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#106
TackleTak	-	#111

Northwestern Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#134	#88
PPAExp	#132	#130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#61	#97
F7 HavocF7	#98	#109
DB HavocDB	#121	#125

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Perf GradePerf	#91	#47
SuccessSuc	#96	#106
ExplosiveExp	#117	#16
PPAPPA	#112	#57
PowerPwr	#94	#83
SP+SP+	#116	#51
Pts POPPO	#115	#64
HavocHav	#131	#77

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#84	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#80
Run ExplRExp	#130	#15
PPAExp	#108	#42
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#63
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#40
TackleTak	-	#102

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#117
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#13
PPAExp	#103	#77
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#99	#41
F7 HavocF7	#128	#107
DB HavocDB	#118	#33

Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 54° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Purdue -3.0 (44.5)
Northwestern won at Purdue this year (26-20)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Purdue last year (26-20)
Northwestern beat Purdue in 2023 (23-15)
Purdue beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-9)

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	0	0	5
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4

PUR's OC (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card	144	248	58%	1641	9	7	6.6
Ryan Browne	43	76	57%	532	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	138	687	4	5.0	63
Reggie Love III (Tr)	83	372	2	4.5	22
Ryan Browne	50	155	0	3.1	23
Elijah Jackson	6	97	1	16.2	69

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Max Klare	51	685	4	13.4	62
Jahmal Edrine	23	365	2	15.9	53
Jaron Tibbs	25	305	2	12.2	38
Devin Mockobee	17	170	1	10.0	21

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Yanni Karlaftis	57	2	1	2	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Cole Brevard	19	6	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)	40	2	0	1	4