USC at Maryland - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
USC -6.5 (56.5) (-238) Open: -6.5
Maryland 29 - USC: 28 (Big Ten)

Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (22 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MD 2nd straight Home Game
USC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: USC -12.5 (SP+ USC -16)
Projected Score: USC: 33 - MD: 21 (54)
USC Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
USC Travel: 2302 miles, 3 hrs behind

Terrapins (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Locksley (29 - 33)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (26 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
MD Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	USC vs LSU	+4.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/7	USC vs Utah State	-30.5	62.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	USC at Michigan	-4.0	44.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/28	USC vs Wisconsin	-14.0	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/5	USC at Minnesota	-8.5	45.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	USC vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/19	USC at Maryland	-6.5	56.5	L 28 - 29	O	N
Fri 10/25	USC vs Rutgers	-14.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/2	USC at Washington	-2.0	55.0	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	USC vs Nebraska	-6.5	51.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	USC at UCLA	-5.0	53.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/30	USC vs Notre Dame	+6.5	52.5	L 35 - 49	O	N
Fri 12/27	USC vs Texas A&M	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Maryland's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Maryland vs UConn	-19.0	45.5	W 50 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Maryland vs Michigan State	-7.5	44.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/14	Maryland at Virginia	+2.5	55.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Maryland vs Villanova	-22.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/28	Maryland at Indiana	+7.5	50.0	L 28 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/11	Maryland vs Northwestern	-11.0	45.0	L 10 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	Maryland vs USC	+6.5	56.5	W 29 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Maryland at Minnesota	+6.0	45.0	L 23 - 48	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Maryland at Oregon	+24.0	58.0	L 18 - 39	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Maryland vs Rutgers	-4.5	54.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/23	Maryland vs Iowa	+4.0	40.5	L 13 - 29	O	N
Sat 11/30	Maryland at Penn State	+26.5	50.5	L 7 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	30.2	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	24.1	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
MD	#106 (.13)	41% (92)	23.7	41% (97)	2.89 (94)	111	41% (74)	276	3.62 (95)	#84 (.19)	43% (86)	30.4	42% (65)	44% (107)	4.34 (116)	58.6	1.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
MD	#106 (.13)	41% (92)		41% (97)	2.89 (94)	111	41% (74)	276	3.62 (95)	#84 (.19)	43% (86)		42% (65)	44% (107)	4.34 (116)	58.6	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	30.2	21.8	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24
MD Defense	12	30.4	25.6	43.3%	4.34	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	42%	44%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	24.1	23.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18
MD Offense	12	23.7	25.9	40.9%	3.62	1.7	22	386	111	276	3.6	40%	60%	41%	41%	17%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7
Maryland	12	30:05	21.5	40%	45%	6.4	58.6	1.7	1.4	5.7	1.2	0	27.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)
MD Defense	12	50% (60)	42% (65)	-	-	-	-	.05 (28)	2.73 (27)	75% (75)	10% (71)	0.89 (27)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)
MD Offense	12	40% (125)	41% (97)	30.8	110.6	3.6	15 (96)	.03 (113)	2.89 (94)	69% (100)	9% (45)	0.95 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)
MD Defense	12	50% (78)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.34 (109)	1.5 (44)	30% (97)	32% (91)	.3 (67)	4% (122)	1.8 (25)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)
MD Offense	12	60% (10)	41% (74)	26.3	41.1	275.7	6.7	10.5	21 (51)	14 (115)	.19 (97)	1.4 (124)	32% (77)	32% (64)	.24 (101)	8% (120)	1.8 (123)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 7.42 #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
2024 Talent Rating: 882.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41% #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.42 Maryland: -2.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 11.9 Maryland: -3.9

Maryland's Power Ratings
Maryland's Power Rating: -2.875 #89
Maryland's Offense Rating: 15.06 #107
Maryland's Defense Rating: 12.27 #92
2024 Talent Rating: 752.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Maryland's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Maryland's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.9 #86
Maryland's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #97
Maryland's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
USC 33
Maryland 21

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 26
Maryland 25

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
USC 27
Maryland 24

Total Points: 51

Maryland Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.9
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Maryland's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Maryland	29	USC	28	USC -6.5	Maryland	56.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Maryland	1	1	1 Overs
USC	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#37) USC at (#89) MD

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	MD
Power RatePwr	#37	#89
SP+SP+	#23	#86
Perf GradeGrade	#44	#120
OffenseOff	#36	#122
DefenseDef	#74	#96
Spec TeamsST	#65	#85
TalentTal	#17	#42
Blue ChipsBC%	#16	#41

USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season

Maryland Notes
(12/3) OC Gattis fired, Locksley play calls much worse
(12/3) PPG play calls: Locksley: 16.7 - Gattis 30.7
(11/24) QB Edwards hurt vs Iowa
(11/23) Run Def mauled by Iowa. Offense sucked hard
(11/18) Off cont to be awful in B1G, horrible L vs Gers
(10/19) Season saving comeback (USC) Edwards great TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) Ignore stats, murdered by NW, uncompetitive
(10/11) Special Teams is laughably awful. Bad team/staff
(10/11) Staff needs to go. Perf vs NW should do it
(10/8) Rumors are Locksley taking over play calling

USC on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MD Def
Perf GradePerf	#36	#96
SuccessSuc	#11	#86
ExplosiveExp	#91	#39
PPAPPA	#41	#84
PowerPwr	#60	#92
SP+SP+	#15	#73
Pts POPPO	#85	#116
HavocHav	#101	#103

USC Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MD Def
Run GameRun	#6	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#65
Run ExplRExp	#106	#27
PPAExp	#21	#28
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#27
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#42
TackleTak	-	#75

USC Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MD Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#112
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#44
PPAExp	#74	#109
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#114	#78
F7 HavocF7	#24	#71
DB HavocDB	#134	#122

Maryland on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#122	#74
SuccessSuc	#92	#94
ExplosiveExp	#89	#24
PPAPPA	#106	#78
PowerPwr	#107	#74
SP+SP+	#97	#48
Pts POPPO	#95	#49
HavocHav	#88	#105

Maryland Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#68	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#97	#78
Run ExplRExp	#78	#77
PPAExp	#113	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#94	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#120
TackleTak	-	#19

Maryland Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#124	#4
PPAExp	#97	#49
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#135	#85
F7 HavocF7	#45	#127
DB HavocDB	#120	#42

Program Comparison
MD 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Maryland Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72°

Rematch from Week 8
USC 6.5 (56.5)
Maryland won vs USC this year (29-28)

Previous Matchups
Maryland beat USC last year (29-28)

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Miller Moss	233	362	64%	2555	18	9	7.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)	101	169	60%	1201	11	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Quinten Joyner	63	478	3	7.6	75
Bryan Jackson	36	188	1	5.2	23
A'Marion Peterson	16	65	1	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	52	764	3	14.7	70
Ja'Kobi Lane	43	525	12	12.2	33
Zachariah Branch	47	503	1	10.7	42
Kyron Ware-Hudson	38	462	3	12.2	39

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Akili Arnold (Tr)	59	1	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braylan Shelby	28	5	3	2	1
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)	27	0	0	0	5
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3

MD's OC Josh Gattis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Billy Edwards	273	420	65%	2881	15	9	6.9
MJ Morris (Tr)	36	61	59%	350	5	5	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Hemby	134	607	6	4.5	75
Nolan Ray	75	374	2	5.0	48
Billy Edwards	81	150	5	1.9	15
Colby McDonald	29	150	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tai Felton	96	1124	9	11.7	75
Kaden Prather	56	624	4	11.1	33
Dylan Wade	29	374	2	12.9	44
Octavian Smith Jr.	30	315	2	10.5	27

View Maryland's Full Roster

MD's DC Brian Williams (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ruben Hyppolite II	66	7	1	2
Dante Trader Jr.	59	0	0	4
Daniel Wingate	50	7	1	0
Jalen Huskey (Tr)	45	3	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Wheatland	42	7	4	4	2
Quashon Fuller	28	4	2	0	1
Kellan Wyatt	29	7	2	2	0
Taizse Johnson	12	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dante Trader Jr.	59	0	0	4
Donnell Brown	23	4	5	3
Ruben Hyppolite II	66	7	1	2