Maryland at Virginia - 2024 Matchup Preview

Maryland Terrapins at Virginia Cavaliers

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Virginia -2.5 (55.5) (-145) Open: -2.5 | 54.5
Maryland 27 - Virginia: 13

Terrapins (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Locksley (29 - 33)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Virginia -4.5 (SP+ MD -1)
Projected Score: MD: 26 - UVA: 30 (56)
UVA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MD Travel: 108 miles

Cavaliers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MD Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Maryland's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Maryland vs UConn	-19.0	45.5	W 50 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Maryland vs Michigan State	-7.5	44.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/14	Maryland at Virginia	+2.5	55.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Maryland vs Villanova	-22.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/28	Maryland at Indiana	+7.5	50.0	L 28 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/11	Maryland vs Northwestern	-11.0	45.0	L 10 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	Maryland vs USC	+6.5	56.5	W 29 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Maryland at Minnesota	+6.0	45.0	L 23 - 48	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Maryland at Oregon	+24.0	58.0	L 18 - 39	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Maryland vs Rutgers	-4.5	54.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/23	Maryland vs Iowa	+4.0	40.5	L 13 - 29	O	N
Sat 11/30	Maryland at Penn State	+26.5	50.5	L 7 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Maryland's Schedule

Virginia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Virginia vs Richmond	-21
Sat 9/7	Virginia at Wake Forest	-1.5	55.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Virginia vs Maryland	-2.5	55.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Virginia at Coastal Carolina	-3.5	52.0	W 43 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Virginia vs Boston College	-2.0	52.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Virginia vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Virginia at Clemson	+20.0	57.5	L 31 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Virginia vs North Carolina	-3.5	58.5	L 14 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+7.5	56.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Virginia at Notre Dame	+20.5	51.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/23	Virginia vs SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/30	Virginia at Virginia Tech	+4.5	44.5	L 17 - 37	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MD	#106 (.13)	41% (92)	23.7	41% (97)	2.89 (94)	111	41% (74)	276	3.62 (95)	#84 (.19)	43% (86)	30.4	42% (65)	44% (107)	4.34 (116)	58.6	1.7	1.4
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)	22.7	43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)	28.8	44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MD	#106 (.13)	41% (92)		41% (97)	2.89 (94)	111	41% (74)	276	3.62 (95)	#84 (.19)	43% (86)		42% (65)	44% (107)	4.34 (116)	58.6	1.7	1.4
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)		43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)		44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MD Offense	12	23.7	20.6	40.9%	3.62	1.7	22	386	111	276	3.6	40%	60%	41%	41%	17%	.13
UVA Defense	12	28.8	25.3	42.6%	4.04	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	44%	42%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MD Defense	12	30.4	37.2	43.3%	4.34	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	42%	44%	14%	.19
UVA Offense	12	22.7	18.7	40%	3.47	1.6	19	362	133	229	3.7	48%	52%	43%	37%	18%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Maryland	12	30:05	21.5	40%	45%	6.4	58.6	1.7	1.4	5.7	1.2	0	27.8
Virginia	12	29:53	19.3	34%	52%	5.2	45.3	1.6	1.3	4.8	1.8	0	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MD Offense	12	40% (125)	41% (97)	30.8	110.6	3.6	15 (96)	.03 (113)	2.89 (94)	69% (100)	9% (45)	0.95 (78)
UVA Defense	12	49% (53)	44% (77)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.29 (112)	77% (89)	9% (104)	0.99 (69)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MD Defense	12	50% (60)	42% (65)	-	-	-	-	.05 (28)	2.73 (27)	75% (75)	10% (71)	0.89 (27)
UVA Offense	12	48% (84)	43% (77)	35.9	132.8	3.7	14 (98)	.16 (50)	3.29 (25)	73% (77)	11% (96)	0.91 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MD Offense	12	60% (10)	41% (74)	26.3	41.1	275.7	6.7	10.5	21 (51)	14 (115)	.19 (97)	1.4 (124)	32% (77)	32% (64)	.24 (101)	8% (120)	1.8 (123)
UVA Defense	12	50% (83)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.37 (121)	1.6 (84)	32% (67)	32% (84)	.43 (110)	6% (67)	2.1 (82)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MD Defense	12	50% (78)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.34 (109)	1.5 (44)	30% (97)	32% (91)	.3 (67)	4% (122)	1.8 (25)
UVA Offense	12	52% (52)	37% (113)	20.5	33.4	229	6.9	11.2	16 (87)	14 (115)	.11 (122)	1.5 (86)	33% (101)	26% (115)	.17 (120)	7% (100)	1.7 (129)

Maryland's Power Ratings
Maryland's Power Rating: -6.85 #89
Maryland's Offense Rating: 15.06 #107
Maryland's Defense Rating: 12.27 #92
2024 Talent Rating: 752.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Maryland's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Maryland's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.9 #86
Maryland's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #97
Maryland's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Maryland: -6.85 Virginia: -1.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Maryland: -3.9 Virginia: -5.1

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -1.05 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Maryland Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.6
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.2

Maryland's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia 30
Maryland 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Maryland 35
Virginia 25

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Virginia 28
Maryland 25

Total Points: 53

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Virginia	13	Maryland	27	Virginia -2.5	Maryland	55.5	Under
2023	09/15	Maryland	42	Virginia	14	Maryland -16.5	Maryland	48.5	Over
2013	10/12	Maryland	27	Virginia	26	Maryland -5.5	Virginia	0
2012	10/13	Virginia	20	Maryland	27
2011	11/05	Maryland	13	Virginia	31
2010	11/13	Virginia	23	Maryland	42
2009	10/17	Maryland	9	Virginia	20
2008	10/04	Virginia	31	Maryland	0
2007	10/20	Maryland	17	Virginia	18
2006	10/14	Virginia	26	Maryland	28
2005	10/01	Maryland	45	Virginia	33
2004	11/06	Virginia	16	Maryland	0
2003	11/13	Maryland	27	Virginia	17
2001	10/06	Maryland	41	Virginia	21
2000	10/06	Virginia	31	Maryland	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	6	1	1 Overs
Maryland	9	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	7 - 8	2 - 1	0 - 0	2 - 1

(#89) MD at (#69) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MD	UVA
Power RatePwr	#89	#69
SP+SP+	#86	#91
Perf GradeGrade	#120	#115
OffenseOff	#122	#109
DefenseDef	#96	#109
Spec TeamsST	#85	#44
TalentTal	#42	#50
Blue ChipsBC%	#41	#82

Maryland Notes
(12/3) OC Gattis fired, Locksley play calls much worse
(12/3) PPG play calls: Locksley: 16.7 - Gattis 30.7
(11/24) QB Edwards hurt vs Iowa
(11/23) Run Def mauled by Iowa. Offense sucked hard
(11/18) Off cont to be awful in B1G, horrible L vs Gers
(10/19) Season saving comeback (USC) Edwards great TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) Ignore stats, murdered by NW, uncompetitive
(10/11) Special Teams is laughably awful. Bad team/staff
(10/11) Staff needs to go. Perf vs NW should do it
(10/8) Rumors are Locksley taking over play calling

Virginia Notes
(12/17) Signed QB C Morris (N Tex/OU/TCU)
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good

Maryland on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	UVA Def
Perf GradePerf	#122	#109
SuccessSuc	#92	#80
ExplosiveExp	#89	#87
PPAPPA	#106	#116
PowerPwr	#107	#96
SP+SP+	#97	#86
Pts POPPO	#95	#94
HavocHav	#88	#91

Maryland Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#68	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	#97	#77
Run ExplRExp	#78	#69
PPAExp	#113	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#94	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#121
TackleTak	-	#112

Maryland Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#77
Pass ExplPExl	#124	#84
PPAExp	#97	#121
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#72
F7 HavocF7	#45	#104
DB HavocDB	#120	#67

Virginia on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	MD Def
Perf GradePerf	#109	#96
SuccessSuc	#103	#86
ExplosiveExp	#105	#39
PPAPPA	#102	#84
PowerPwr	#84	#92
SP+SP+	#95	#73
Pts POPPO	#106	#116
HavocHav	#109	#103

Virginia Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	MD Def
Run GameRun	#84	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#65
Run ExplRExp	#92	#27
PPAExp	#50	#28
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#25	#27
Stuff RateStuff	#6	#42
TackleTak	-	#75

Virginia Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	MD Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#112
Pass SuccessPSuc	#113	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#44
PPAExp	#122	#109
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#120	#78
F7 HavocF7	#96	#71
DB HavocDB	#100	#122

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

MD 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 69°

Rematch from Week 3
Virginia -2.5 (55.5)
Maryland won at Virginia this year (27-13)

Previous Matchups
Maryland beat Virginia last year (27-13)
Maryland beat Virginia in 2023 (42-14)

MD's OC Josh Gattis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Billy Edwards	273	420	65%	2881	15	9	6.9
MJ Morris (Tr)	36	61	59%	350	5	5	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Hemby	134	607	6	4.5	75
Nolan Ray	75	374	2	5.0	48
Billy Edwards	81	150	5	1.9	15
Colby McDonald	29	150	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tai Felton	96	1124	9	11.7	75
Kaden Prather	56	624	4	11.1	33
Dylan Wade	29	374	2	12.9	44
Octavian Smith Jr.	30	315	2	10.5	27

View Maryland's Full Roster

MD's DC Brian Williams (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ruben Hyppolite II	66	7	1	2
Dante Trader Jr.	59	0	0	4
Daniel Wingate	50	7	1	0
Jalen Huskey (Tr)	45	3	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Wheatland	42	7	4	4	2
Quashon Fuller	28	4	2	0	1
Kellan Wyatt	29	7	2	2	0
Taizse Johnson	12	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dante Trader Jr.	59	0	0	4
Donnell Brown	23	4	5	3
Ruben Hyppolite II	66	7	1	2

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	198	320	62%	2125	13	11	6.6
Tony Muskett	45	76	59%	545	3	3	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace	114	499	3	4.4	43
Xavier Brown	80	488	1	6.1	75
Anthony Colandrea	128	277	2	2.2	35
Noah Vaughn	36	120	0	3.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Fields	55	808	5	14.7	45
Tyler Neville (Tr)	37	394	2	10.6	39
Trell Harris (Tr)	15	221	2	14.7	45
Kobe Pace	21	189	0	9.0	52

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Trey McDonald	57	3	1	1	1
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
James Jackson	45	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kempton Shine (Tr)	37	2	0	0	7
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4