USC at UCLA - 2024 Matchup Preview
USC logo USC Trojans at UCLA BruinsUCLA logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
USC -5 (53.0) (-180)  Open: -6.5
USC 19 - UCLA: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (22 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
UCLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: USC -7.5  (SP+ USC -13)

Projected Score: USC: 29 - UCLA: 21 (50)
USC Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
USC Travel: 12 miles
Bruins (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 25 (16 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
USC's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/1 USC vs LSU+4.066.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 9/7 USC vs Utah State-30.562.5W 48 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 USC at Michigan-4.044.0L 24 - 27ON
Sat 9/28 USC vs Wisconsin-14.050.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/5 USC at Minnesota-8.545.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 10/12 USC vs Penn State+3.551.5L 30 - 33OY
Sat 10/19 USC at Maryland-6.556.5L 28 - 29ON
Fri 10/25 USC vs Rutgers-14.057.0W 42 - 20OY
Sat 11/2 USC at Washington-2.055.0L 21 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 USC vs Nebraska-6.551.0W 28 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 USC at UCLA-5.053.0W 19 - 13UY
Sat 11/30 USC vs Notre Dame+6.552.5L 35 - 49ON
Fri 12/27 USC vs Texas A&M+3.556.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
UCLA's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 UCLA at Hawai'i-13.555.5W 16 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 UCLA vs Indiana+3.546.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 9/21 UCLA at LSU+21.556.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/28 UCLA vs Oregon+23.554.5L 13 - 34UY
Sat 10/5 UCLA at Penn State+30.048.0L 11 - 27UY
Sat 10/12 UCLA vs Minnesota+3.539.0L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/19 UCLA at Rutgers+4.042.5W 35 - 32OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 UCLA at Nebraska+7.538.5W 27 - 20OY
Fri 11/8 UCLA vs Iowa+6.544.5W 20 - 17UY
Fri 11/15 UCLA at Washington+4.547.0L 19 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 UCLA vs USC+5.053.0L 13 - 19UN
Sat 11/30 UCLA vs Fresno State-7.546.5W 20 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)30.252% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)24.144% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
UCLA#99 (.14)39% (112)18.434% (131)2.47 (132)8743% (56)2423.15 (123)#68 (.16)46% (110)25.345% (83)47% (120)4.45 (123)68.91.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
UCLA#99 (.14)39% (112)34% (131)2.47 (132)8743% (56)2423.15 (123)#68 (.16)46% (110)45% (83)47% (120)4.45 (123)68.91.41.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1330.221.848.4%3.761.4214081382695.540%60%52%46%18%.24
UCLA Defense1225.324.345.9%4.451.1 - - - - - 43%57%45%47%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense1324.123.843.8%3.641.2 - - - - - 46%53%44%44%14%.18
UCLA Offense1218.41639%3.151.418329872423.141%59%34%43%17%.14

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1328:1221.345%47%5.3461.41.23.91.5133.7
UCLA1231:071843%50%8.268.91.41.15.31.8227.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1340% (126)52% (10)25.2138.45.519 (73).23 (21)3.49 (9)85% (6)8% (24)0.89 (106)
UCLA Defense1243% (2)45% (83) - - - - .05 (30)2.92 (52)78% (101)10% (68)0.72 (2)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1346% (22)44% (78) - - - - .18 (96)3.17 (92)76% (81)7% (127)1 (77)
UCLA Offense1241% (122)34% (131)2886.93.14 (133)-.05 (129)2.47 (132)70% (87)10% (85)0.94 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1360% (9)46% (26)24.138269.27.111.225 (31)12 (85).25 (74)1.5 (108)29% (24)36% (18).4 (36)10% (134)2 (74)
UCLA Defense1257% (132)47% (120) - - - - - - 10 (66).26 (82)1.4 (15)30% (100)33% (106).31 (70)8% (8)2 (53)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1353% (113)44% (103) - - - - - - 10 (66).2 (49)1.3 (4)28% (122)27% (27).14 (6)7% (42)1.8 (8)
UCLA Offense1259% (12)43% (56)21.633.2242.27.311.217 (79)11 (72).26 (62)1.5 (95)36% (126)36% (21).42 (30)7% (99)1.9 (102)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 7.42  #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62  #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19  #74
2024 Talent Rating: 882.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41%  #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9  #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6  #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.42   UCLA: 2.12

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 11.9   UCLA: -1.3




UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 2.12  #61
UCLA's Offense Rating: 16.06  #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 12.38  #94
2024 Talent Rating: 718.00  #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #31
UCLA's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCLA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3  #75
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #103
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3  #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
USC 29
UCLA 21


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
UCLA 24
USC 24

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
USC 26
UCLA 20

Total Points: 46
UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

UCLA's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23UCLA13USC19USC -5USC53.0Under
202311/18USC20UCLA38USC -6UCLA65.5Under
202211/19UCLA45USC48USC -2.5USC76.5Over
202111/20USC33UCLA62UCLA -4.5UCLA66.5Over
202012/12UCLA38USC43USC -3.5USC64.0Over
201911/23USC52UCLA35USC -12.5USC66.0Over
201811/17UCLA34USC27USC -2.5UCLA55.0Over
201711/18USC28UCLA23USC -14.5UCLA70.5Under
201611/19UCLA14USC36USC -10.5USC53.0Under
201511/28USC40UCLA21USC -3.5USC61.0Push
201411/22UCLA38USC20UCLA -3UCLA0
201311/30USC14UCLA35USC -3.5UCLA0
201211/17UCLA38USC28
201111/26USC50UCLA0
201012/04UCLA14USC28
200911/28USC28UCLA7
200812/06UCLA7USC28
200712/01USC24UCLA7
200612/02UCLA13USC9
200512/03USC66UCLA19
200412/04UCLA24USC29
200311/22USC47UCLA22
200111/17USC27UCLA0
200011/17UCLA35USC38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCLA765 Overs
USC1764 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 114 - 83 - 31 - 5
Road Teams11 - 138 - 45 - 13 - 3

(#37) USC at (#61) UCLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSCUCLA
Power RatePwr #37 #61
SP+SP+ #23 #75
Perf GradeGrade #44 #110
OffenseOff #36 #115
DefenseDef #74 #91
Spec TeamsST #65 #88
TalentTal #17 #54
Blue ChipsBC% #16 #31

USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season

UCLA Notes
(12/29) Signed QB Aguilar (Gr, App St)
(12/5) Fired OC Bieniemy after one season
(12/5) Hired IU Co-OC Tino Sunseri
(11/24) Off 3-11 on 3rd, 0-3 4th, 13 pts in L (USC)
(11/18) Garbers bad, Rgame abysmal in Wash L, Def good
(11/13) 3 W's w/ Iowa, Garbers good, Rgame good in W
(11/2) 2 straight Road W's, fighting hard. Garbers good
(10/28) -5.7 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 7 games
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#124) into week 9
(10/19) Hung 35, torched Gers, Garbers great, Rgame bad
(10/18) Has not scored < 17 pts in any game to date
USC on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
USC OffUCLA Def
Perf GradePerf #36 #91
SuccessSuc #11 #110
ExplosiveExp #91 #10
PPAPPA #41 #68
PowerPwr #60 #94
SP+SP+ #15 #44
Pts POPPO #85 #123
HavocHav #101 #37
USC Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
USC OffUCLA Def
Run GameRun #6 #98
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #83
Run ExplRExp #106 #2
PPAExp #21 #30
Run BlockR Blk #87 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #52
Stuff RateStuff #22 #53
TackleTak -  #53
USC Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
USC OffUCLA Def
Pass GamePass #24 #52
Pass SuccessPSuc #26 #120
Pass ExplPExl #108 #15
PPAExp #74 #82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #114 #117
F7 HavocF7 #24 #68
DB HavocDB #134 #8
UCLA on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatUCLA OffUSC Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #74
SuccessSuc #112 #94
ExplosiveExp #43 #24
PPAPPA #99 #78
PowerPwr #103 #74
SP+SP+ #103 #48
Pts POPPO #123 #49
HavocHav #96 #105
UCLA Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
UCLA OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #132 #92
Run SuccessRSuc #131 #78
Run ExplRExp #84 #77
PPAExp #129 #96
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLY #132 #92
Stuff RateStuff #122 #120
TackleTak -  #19
UCLA Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatUCLA OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #81 #48
Pass SuccessPSuc #56 #103
Pass ExplPExl #95 #4
PPAExp #62 #49
Pass Block/RushP Blk #122 #85
F7 HavocF7 #85 #127
DB HavocDB #99 #42
Program Comparison
UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 58° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 13
USC 5.0 (53.0)
USC won at UCLA this year (19-13)

Previous Matchups
USC beat UCLA last year (19-13)
UCLA beat USC in 2023 (38-20)
USC beat UCLA in 2022 (48-45)

  
USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss23336264%25551897.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)10116960%12011167.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks198113395.765
Quinten Joyner6347837.675
Bryan Jackson3618815.223
A'Marion Peterson166514.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon52764314.770
Ja'Kobi Lane435251212.233
Zachariah Branch47503110.742
Kyron Ware-Hudson38462312.239

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)945221
Mason Cobb723003
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Akili Arnold (Tr)591111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby285321
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)945221
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Eric Gentry337201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)270005
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Mason Cobb723003

UCLA's OC Eric Bieniemy (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Garbers23536365%272716117.5
Justyn Martin243569%179105.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden12450524.140
Keegan Jones4717913.822
Jalen Berger4817803.718
Ethan Garbers8313711.757
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Moliki Matavao41506212.335
TJ Harden4036819.253
Logan Loya29348412.029
Kwazi Gilmer31345211.148

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Carson Schwesinger1369433
Kain Medrano7211244
Oluwafemi Oladejo5714562
KJ Wallace4991110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Oluwafemi Oladejo5714562
Carson Schwesinger1369433
Devin Aupiu155211
Kain Medrano7211244
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
KJ Wallace4991110
Kaylin Moore (Tr)372019
Bryan Addison (Tr)431005