USC at UCLA - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
USC -5 (53.0) (-180) Open: -6.5
USC 19 - UCLA: 13 (Big Ten)

Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: USC -7.5 (SP+ USC -13)
Projected Score: USC: 31 - UCLA: 24 (55)
USC Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
USC Travel: 12 miles

Bruins (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (20 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
UCLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	USC vs LSU	+4.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/7	USC vs Utah State	-30.5	62.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	USC at Michigan	-4.0	44.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/28	USC vs Wisconsin	-14.0	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/5	USC at Minnesota	-8.5	45.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	USC vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/19	USC at Maryland	-6.5	56.5	L 28 - 29	O	N
Fri 10/25	USC vs Rutgers	-14.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/2	USC at Washington	-2.0	55.0	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	USC vs Nebraska	-6.5	51.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	USC at UCLA	-5.0	53.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/30	USC vs Notre Dame	+6.5	52.5	L 35 - 49	O	N
Fri 12/27	USC vs Texas A&M	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

UCLA's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UCLA at Hawai'i	-13.5	55.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	UCLA vs Indiana	+3.5	46.5	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/21	UCLA at LSU	+21.5	56.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/28	UCLA vs Oregon	+23.5	54.5	L 13 - 34	U	Y
Sat 10/5	UCLA at Penn State	+30.0	48.0	L 11 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/12	UCLA vs Minnesota	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCLA at Rutgers	+4.0	42.5	W 35 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	UCLA at Nebraska	+7.5	38.5	W 27 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/8	UCLA vs Iowa	+6.5	44.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/15	UCLA at Washington	+4.5	47.0	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	UCLA vs USC	+5.0	53.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/30	UCLA vs Fresno State	-7.5	46.5	W 20 - 13	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#6 (.39)	47% (15)	35.8	48% (20)	3.19 (52)	134	47% (21)	333	4.99 (4)	#122 (.29)	46% (121)	23	49% (125)	43% (91)	3.55 (49)	64.9	1.3	1.2
UCLA	#73 (.18)	42% (71)	18.2	44% (55)	3.27 (37)	198	40% (88)	229	3.11 (120)	#11 (.08)	37% (18)	33.4	37% (24)	37% (18)	3.16 (19)	58.1	1.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	35.8	27.4	47.5%	4.99	1.3	22	467	134	333	4.8	41%	59%	48%	47%	14%	.39
UCLA Defense	13	33.4	34.7	36.7%	3.16	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	37%	37%	21%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	23	28.8	45.8%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	43%	14%	.29
UCLA Offense	13	18.2	19.5	41.8%	3.11	1.7	21	427	198	229	4.9	51%	49%	44%	40%	17%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	27:33	22.5	43%	61%	7.3	64.9	1.3	1.2	5.5	1.9	3	30.3
UCLA	13	29:01	21.4	44%	47%	7.1	58.1	1.7	1.8	8.1	3.2	0	29.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	41% (123)	48% (20)	27.8	133.6	4.8	33 (8)	.29 (8)	3.19 (52)	78% (28)	10% (65)	1.2 (2)
UCLA Defense	13	42% (7)	37% (24)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (6)	2.64 (10)	55% (4)	14% (5)	0.84 (9)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	51% (83)	49% (125)	-	-	-	-	.29 (128)	3.31 (110)	73% (64)	10% (64)	1.07 (100)
UCLA Offense	13	51% (63)	44% (55)	40.5	197.9	4.9	21 (54)	.21 (37)	3.27 (37)	70% (95)	10% (75)	1.07 (33)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	59% (10)	47% (21)	24.2	35.5	333	9.4	13.8	37 (4)	6 (14)	.47 (14)	1.7 (20)	29% (22)	37% (14)	.65 (4)	4% (15)	2.3 (12)
UCLA Defense	13	57% (128)	37% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (32)	1.6 (52)	37% (9)	28% (34)	.29 (54)	7% (51)	2.1 (86)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	49% (60)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.32 (98)	1.7 (90)	31% (87)	34% (115)	.4 (108)	4% (129)	2.1 (92)
UCLA Offense	13	49% (66)	40% (88)	18.3	31.5	229.2	7.3	12.5	24 (41)	14 (107)	.16 (107)	1.6 (58)	32% (73)	33% (54)	.28 (89)	7% (92)	1.9 (118)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 7.42 #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
2024 Talent Rating: 494.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41% #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.42 UCLA: 2.12

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 11.9 UCLA: -1.3

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 2.12 #61
UCLA's Offense Rating: 16.06 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 12.38 #94
2024 Talent Rating: 368.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
UCLA's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCLA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #75
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
USC 31
UCLA 24

Projected Total Points: 55

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

UCLA's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	USC	29	UCLA	10	USC -21.0	UCLA	59.0	Under
2024	11/23	UCLA	13	USC	19	USC -5	USC	53.0	Under
2023	11/18	USC	20	UCLA	38	USC -6	UCLA	65.5	Under
2022	11/19	UCLA	45	USC	48	USC -2.5	USC	76.5	Over
2021	11/20	USC	33	UCLA	62	UCLA -4.5	UCLA	66.5	Over
2020	12/12	UCLA	38	USC	43	USC -3.5	USC	64.0	Over
2019	11/23	USC	52	UCLA	35	USC -12.5	USC	66.0	Over
2018	11/17	UCLA	34	USC	27	USC -2.5	UCLA	55.0	Over
2017	11/18	USC	28	UCLA	23	USC -14.5	UCLA	70.5	Under
2016	11/19	UCLA	14	USC	36	USC -10.5	USC	53.0	Under
2015	11/28	USC	40	UCLA	21	USC -3.5	USC	61.0	Push
2014	11/22	UCLA	38	USC	20	UCLA -3	UCLA	0
2013	11/30	USC	14	UCLA	35	USC -3.5	UCLA	0
2012	11/17	UCLA	38	USC	28
2011	11/26	USC	50	UCLA	0
2010	12/04	UCLA	14	USC	28
2009	11/28	USC	28	UCLA	7
2008	12/06	UCLA	7	USC	28
2007	12/01	USC	24	UCLA	7
2006	12/02	UCLA	13	USC	9
2005	12/03	USC	66	UCLA	19
2004	12/04	UCLA	24	USC	29
2003	11/22	USC	47	UCLA	22
2001	11/17	USC	27	UCLA	0
2000	11/17	UCLA	35	USC	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCLA	7	7	5 Overs
USC	18	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 11	4 - 9	3 - 4	1 - 5
Road Teams	11 - 14	9 - 4	5 - 1	4 - 3

(#37) USC at (#61) UCLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	UCLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#37	#61
SP+SP+	#23	#75
Perf GradeGrade	#44	#110
OffenseOff	#36	#115
DefenseDef	#74	#91
Spec TeamsST	#65	#88
TalentTal	#17	#50
Blue ChipsBC%	#16	#31

USC Notes(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season
(10/16) Best LB Gentry injured, will redshirt TY
USC Injury Report

UCLA Notes(12/29) Signed QB Aguilar (Gr, App St)
(12/5) Fired OC Bieniemy after one season
(12/5) Hired IU Co-OC Tino Sunseri
(11/24) Off 3-11 on 3rd, 0-3 4th, 13 pts in L (USC)
(11/18) Garbers bad, Rgame abysmal in Wash L, Def good
(11/13) 3 W's w/ Iowa, Garbers good, Rgame good in W
(11/2) 2 straight Road W's, fighting hard. Garbers good
(10/28) -5.7 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 7 games
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#124) into week 9
(10/19) Hung 35, torched Gers, Garbers great, Rgame bad
(10/18) Has not scored < 17 pts in any game to date
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def good. Hard L to Minn
UCLA Injury Report

USC on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	UCLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#36	#91
SuccessSuc	#15	#18
ExplosiveExp	#2	#45
PPAPPA	#6	#11
PowerPwr	#60	#94
SP+SP+	#15	#44
Pts POPPO	#4	#19
HavocHav	#31	#8

USC Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#6	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#20	#24
Run ExplRExp	#2	#9
PPAExp	#8	#6
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#10
Stuff RateStuff	#88	#4
TackleTak	-	#53

USC Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#52
PPAExp	#14	#32
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#114	#117
F7 HavocF7	#65	#5
DB HavocDB	#15	#51

UCLA on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	USC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#115	#74
SuccessSuc	#71	#121
ExplosiveExp	#47	#96
PPAPPA	#73	#122
PowerPwr	#103	#74
SP+SP+	#103	#48
Pts POPPO	#120	#49
HavocHav	#83	#116

UCLA Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#132	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#55	#125
Run ExplRExp	#33	#100
PPAExp	#37	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#37	#110
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#79
TackleTak	-	#19

UCLA Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#81	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#88	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#90
PPAExp	#107	#98
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#122	#85
F7 HavocF7	#75	#64
DB HavocDB	#92	#129

Program Comparison
UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
USC 5.0 (53.0)
USC won at UCLA this year (19-13)

Previous Matchups
USC beat UCLA last year (29-10)
USC beat UCLA in 2024 (19-13)
UCLA beat USC in 2023 (38-20)

USC's OC Josh Henson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Miller Moss	233	362	64%	2555	18	9	7.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)	101	169	60%	1201	11	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Quinten Joyner	63	478	3	7.6	75
Bryan Jackson	36	188	1	5.2	23
A'Marion Peterson	16	65	1	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	52	764	3	14.7	70
Ja'Kobi Lane	43	525	12	12.2	33
Zachariah Branch	47	503	1	10.7	42
Kyron Ware-Hudson	38	462	3	12.2	39

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Akili Arnold (Tr)	59	1	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braylan Shelby	28	5	3	2	1
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)	27	0	0	0	5
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3

UCLA's OC Eric Bieniemy (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Garbers	235	363	65%	2727	16	11	7.5
Justyn Martin	24	35	69%	179	1	0	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Harden	124	505	2	4.1	40
Keegan Jones	47	179	1	3.8	22
Jalen Berger	48	178	0	3.7	18
Ethan Garbers	83	137	1	1.7	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Moliki Matavao	41	506	2	12.3	35
TJ Harden	40	368	1	9.2	53
Logan Loya	29	348	4	12.0	29
Kwazi Gilmer	31	345	2	11.1	48

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carson Schwesinger	136	9	4	3	3
Kain Medrano	72	11	2	4	4
Oluwafemi Oladejo	57	14	5	6	2
KJ Wallace	49	9	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Oluwafemi Oladejo	57	14	5	6	2
Carson Schwesinger	136	9	4	3	3
Devin Aupiu	15	5	2	1	1
Kain Medrano	72	11	2	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KJ Wallace	49	9	1	1	10
Kaylin Moore (Tr)	37	2	0	1	9
Bryan Addison (Tr)	43	1	0	0	5