Michigan State at Maryland - 2024 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Maryland -7.5 (44.5) (-340) Open: -8.0 | 43.5
Michigan State 27 - Maryland: 24 (Big Ten)

Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MD 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Maryland -0.5 (SP+ MD -1)
Projected Score: MSU: 23 - MD: 23 (46)
MD Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 471 miles

Terrapins (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Locksley (29 - 33)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (26 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
MD Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic	-12.0	45.0	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	44.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	53.5	W 40 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Boston College	+4.5	45.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	48.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/4	Michigan State at Oregon	+22.5	53.0	L 10 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan State vs Iowa	+7.0	39.5	W 32 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Michigan State at Michigan	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/2	Michigan State vs Indiana	+7.5	53.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Illinois	+2.0	47.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/22	Michigan State vs Purdue	-14.0	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-1.5	46.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Maryland's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Maryland vs UConn	-19.0	45.5	W 50 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Maryland vs Michigan State	-7.5	44.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/14	Maryland at Virginia	+2.5	55.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Maryland vs Villanova	-22.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/28	Maryland at Indiana	+7.5	50.0	L 28 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/11	Maryland vs Northwestern	-11.0	45.0	L 10 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	Maryland vs USC	+6.5	56.5	W 29 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Maryland at Minnesota	+6.0	45.0	L 23 - 48	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Maryland at Oregon	+24.0	58.0	L 18 - 39	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Maryland vs Rutgers	-4.5	54.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/23	Maryland vs Iowa	+4.0	40.5	L 13 - 29	O	N
Sat 11/30	Maryland at Penn State	+26.5	50.5	L 7 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	19.3	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	26.1	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
MD	#106 (.13)	41% (92)	23.7	41% (97)	2.89 (94)	111	41% (74)	276	3.62 (95)	#84 (.19)	43% (86)	30.4	42% (65)	44% (107)	4.34 (116)	58.6	1.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
MD	#106 (.13)	41% (92)		41% (97)	2.89 (94)	111	41% (74)	276	3.62 (95)	#84 (.19)	43% (86)		42% (65)	44% (107)	4.34 (116)	58.6	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	19.3	17.8	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13
MD Defense	12	30.4	25.6	43.3%	4.34	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	42%	44%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	26.1	28	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19
MD Offense	12	23.7	25.9	40.9%	3.62	1.7	22	386	111	276	3.6	40%	60%	41%	41%	17%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3
Maryland	12	30:05	21.5	40%	45%	6.4	58.6	1.7	1.4	5.7	1.2	0	27.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)
MD Defense	12	50% (60)	42% (65)	-	-	-	-	.05 (28)	2.73 (27)	75% (75)	10% (71)	0.89 (27)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)
MD Offense	12	40% (125)	41% (97)	30.8	110.6	3.6	15 (96)	.03 (113)	2.89 (94)	69% (100)	9% (45)	0.95 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)
MD Defense	12	50% (78)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.34 (109)	1.5 (44)	30% (97)	32% (91)	.3 (67)	4% (122)	1.8 (25)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)
MD Offense	12	60% (10)	41% (74)	26.3	41.1	275.7	6.7	10.5	21 (51)	14 (115)	.19 (97)	1.4 (124)	32% (77)	32% (64)	.24 (101)	8% (120)	1.8 (123)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -2.31 Maryland: -2.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6 Maryland: -3.9

Maryland's Power Ratings
Maryland's Power Rating: -2.875 #89
Maryland's Offense Rating: 15.06 #107
Maryland's Defense Rating: 12.27 #92
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Maryland's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Maryland's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.9 #86
Maryland's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #97
Maryland's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Maryland 23
Michigan State 23

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Maryland 32
Michigan State 15

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Maryland 26
Michigan State 23

Total Points: 49

Maryland Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.9
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Maryland's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Michigan State	38	Maryland	28	Michigan State -4.0	Michigan State	49.5	Over
2024	09/07	Maryland	24	Michigan State	27	Maryland -7.5	Michigan State	44.5	Over
2023	09/23	Michigan State	9	Maryland	31	Maryland -7	Maryland	52.5	Under
2022	10/01	Maryland	27	Michigan State	13	Maryland -7.5	Maryland	58.5	Under
2021	11/13	Michigan State	40	Maryland	21	Michigan State -11.5	Michigan State	60.0	Over
2019	11/30	Michigan State	19	Maryland	16	Michigan State -21.5	Maryland	47.5	Under
2018	11/03	Maryland	3	Michigan State	24	Michigan State -3	Michigan State	43.0	Under
2017	11/18	Michigan State	17	Maryland	7	Michigan State -14	Maryland	44.5	Under
2016	10/22	Maryland	28	Michigan State	17	Michigan State -2.5	Maryland	49.0	Under
2015	11/14	Michigan State	24	Maryland	7	Michigan State -16	Michigan State	54.0	Under
2014	11/15	Maryland	15	Michigan State	37	Michigan State -10.5	Michigan State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Maryland	3	5	3 Overs
Michigan State	8	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	5 - 6	4 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	4 - 7	6 - 5	3 - 1	3 - 4

(#70) MSU at (#89) MD

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	MD
Power RatePwr	#70	#89
SP+SP+	#90	#86
Perf GradeGrade	#107	#120
OffenseOff	#105	#122
DefenseDef	#104	#96
Spec TeamsST	#122	#85
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#31	#41

Michigan State Notes(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report

Maryland Notes(12/3) OC Gattis fired, Locksley play calls much worse
(12/3) PPG play calls: Locksley: 16.7 - Gattis 30.7
(11/24) QB Edwards hurt vs Iowa
(11/23) Run Def mauled by Iowa. Offense sucked hard
(11/18) Off cont to be awful in B1G, horrible L vs Gers
(10/19) Season saving comeback (USC) Edwards great TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) Ignore stats, murdered by NW, uncompetitive
(10/11) Special Teams is laughably awful. Bad team/staff
(10/11) Staff needs to go. Perf vs NW should do it
(10/8) Rumors are Locksley taking over play calling
(9/28) 400yds and forced 4 TOs, still L to IU. Def mauled
Maryland Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	MD Def
Perf GradePerf	#105	#96
SuccessSuc	#86	#86
ExplosiveExp	#118	#39
PPAPPA	#105	#84
PowerPwr	#101	#92
SP+SP+	#119	#73
Pts POPPO	#116	#116
HavocHav	#98	#103

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	MD Def
Run GameRun	#31	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#65
Run ExplRExp	#126	#27
PPAExp	#116	#28
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#27
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#42
TackleTak	-	#75

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	MD Def
Pass GamePass	#107	#112
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#44
PPAExp	#79	#109
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#126	#78
F7 HavocF7	#112	#71
DB HavocDB	#63	#122

Maryland on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	MSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#122	#104
SuccessSuc	#92	#69
ExplosiveExp	#89	#110
PPAPPA	#106	#85
PowerPwr	#107	#75
SP+SP+	#97	#49
Pts POPPO	#95	#98
HavocHav	#88	#93

Maryland Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#68	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#97	#25
Run ExplRExp	#78	#80
PPAExp	#113	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#94	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#33
TackleTak	-	#31

Maryland Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	MD Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#124	#101
PPAExp	#97	#111
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#135	#127
F7 HavocF7	#45	#64
DB HavocDB	#120	#121

Program Comparison
MD 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Maryland Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 64°

Rematch from Week 2
Maryland -7.5 (44.5)
Michigan State won at Maryland this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Maryland last year (27-24)
Maryland beat Michigan State in 2023 (31-9)
Maryland beat Michigan State in 2022 (27-13)

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)	20	29	69%	202	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Nathan Carter	116	499	5	4.3	60
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Jack Velling (Tr)	36	411	1	11.4	34
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Nikai Martinez (Tr)	51	3	0	1	2
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Anthony Jones (Tr)	25	4	2	5	0
Ken Talley	6	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Brantley	27	2	0	0	7
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Jordan Hall	24	1	0	1	2

MD's OC Josh Gattis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Billy Edwards	273	420	65%	2881	15	9	6.9
MJ Morris (Tr)	36	61	59%	350	5	5	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Hemby	134	607	6	4.5	75
Nolan Ray	75	374	2	5.0	48
Billy Edwards	81	150	5	1.9	15
Colby McDonald	29	150	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tai Felton	96	1124	9	11.7	75
Kaden Prather	56	624	4	11.1	33
Dylan Wade	29	374	2	12.9	44
Octavian Smith Jr.	30	315	2	10.5	27

View Maryland's Full Roster

MD's DC Brian Williams (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ruben Hyppolite II	66	7	1	2
Dante Trader Jr.	59	0	0	4
Daniel Wingate	50	7	1	0
Jalen Huskey (Tr)	45	3	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Wheatland	42	7	4	4	2
Quashon Fuller	28	4	2	0	1
Kellan Wyatt	29	7	2	2	0
Taizse Johnson	12	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dante Trader Jr.	59	0	0	4
Donnell Brown	23	4	5	3
Ruben Hyppolite II	66	7	1	2