Wisconsin at USC - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
USC -14 (50.5) (-575) Open: -5.5
USC 38 - Wisconsin: 21 (Big Ten)

Badgers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (25 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WIS coming off BYE
Our Line: USC -8.5 (SP+ USC -9)
Projected Score: WIS: 21 - USC: 30 (51)
USC Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
WIS Travel: 1671 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (37 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WIS Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Wisconsin vs Western Michigan	-24.0	57.0	W 28 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/7	Wisconsin vs South Dakota	-17.5	44.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/14	Wisconsin vs Alabama	+15.5	51.0	L 10 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Wisconsin at USC	+14.0	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/5	Wisconsin vs Purdue	-12.0	44.5	W 52 - 6	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Wisconsin at Rutgers	+1.0	43.5	W 42 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Wisconsin vs Northwestern	-9.5	42.5	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wisconsin vs Penn State	+6.5	47.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/2	Wisconsin at Iowa	+2.5	40.0	L 10 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Wisconsin vs Oregon	+13.5	49.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Wisconsin at Nebraska	+1.5	40.5	L 25 - 44	O	N
Fri 11/29	Wisconsin vs Minnesota	+1.5	40.5	L 7 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule

USC's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	USC vs LSU	+4.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/7	USC vs Utah State	-30.5	62.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	USC at Michigan	-4.0	44.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/28	USC vs Wisconsin	-14.0	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/5	USC at Minnesota	-8.5	45.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	USC vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/19	USC at Maryland	-6.5	56.5	L 28 - 29	O	N
Fri 10/25	USC vs Rutgers	-14.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/2	USC at Washington	-2.0	55.0	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	USC vs Nebraska	-6.5	51.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	USC at UCLA	-5.0	53.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/30	USC vs Notre Dame	+6.5	52.5	L 35 - 49	O	N
Fri 12/27	USC vs Texas A&M	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WIS	#97 (.14)	42% (73)	22.6	46% (39)	3.16 (46)	154	38% (107)	197	4.02 (57)	#80 (.18)	43% (88)	23.1	45% (86)	42% (81)	4.17 (105)	37.5	1.5	1
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	30.2	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	24.1	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WIS	#97 (.14)	42% (73)		46% (39)	3.16 (46)	154	38% (107)	197	4.02 (57)	#80 (.18)	43% (88)		45% (86)	42% (81)	4.17 (105)	37.5	1.5	1
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WIS Offense	12	22.6	24.5	42.2%	4.02	1.5	19	351	154	197	4.4	51%	49%	46%	38%	17%	.14
USC Defense	13	24.1	23.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WIS Defense	12	23.1	32.8	43.4%	4.17	1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	45%	42%	12%	.18
USC Offense	13	30.2	36.8	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wisconsin	12	29:21	18.8	36%	60%	5.3	37.5	1.5	1	3.5	1.4	0	27.7
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WIS Offense	12	51% (70)	46% (39)	34.9	154.1	4.4	19 (73)	.12 (75)	3.16 (46)	75% (58)	8% (37)	0.8 (129)
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WIS Defense	12	54% (110)	45% (86)	-	-	-	-	.15 (81)	3.27 (105)	68% (36)	7% (130)	0.97 (60)
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WIS Offense	12	49% (65)	38% (107)	17.3	30.4	196.7	6.5	11.4	14 (108)	10 (63)	.16 (102)	1.5 (100)	30% (34)	27% (111)	.15 (128)	9% (132)	1.8 (122)
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WIS Defense	12	45% (22)	42% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.25 (76)	1.3 (5)	28% (123)	28% (32)	.24 (42)	5% (92)	1.8 (19)
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 4.16 #45
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
2024 Talent Rating: 842.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #29
Wisconsin's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Wisconsin's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 4.16 USC: 12.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 3.0 USC: 11.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 12.16 #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
2024 Talent Rating: 882.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Wisconsin's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 30
Wisconsin 21

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 29
Wisconsin 18

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
USC 31
Wisconsin 24

Total Points: 55

USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	USC	38	Wisconsin	21	USC -14	USC	50.5	Over
2015	12/30	Wisconsin	23	USC	21	USC -3	Wisconsin	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	1	1	1 Overs
Wisconsin	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#45) WIS at (#37) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WIS	USC
Power RatePwr	#45	#37
SP+SP+	#60	#23
Perf GradeGrade	#78	#44
OffenseOff	#72	#36
DefenseDef	#86	#74
Spec TeamsST	#15	#65
TalentTal	#24	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	#29	#16

Wisconsin Notes
(12/16) Signed QB Billy Edwards (MD)
(12/6) Hired OC Jeff Grimes (Bay/KU)
(11/29) How does Fickell address the offense for '25
(11/29) 5 str L's to finish. Offense is untenable. Bad vibes
(11/29) 22 year bowl streak over, was CFB longest
(11/23) 4 str L's, Locke good, Def torched by Nebraska
(11/18) Fight w/ Oreg, Locke awful, Rgame bad, OC fired
(11/17) OC Longo fired after Oregon loss
(11/2) Locke is awful. Rgame avg at best. Longo Off bad
(10/27) Rgame awful vs PSU, Lock bad INT. < 300 yds
(10/22) Def stop rate is 75% (#10) into PSU/Iowa games

USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season

Wisconsin on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#72	#74
SuccessSuc	#73	#94
ExplosiveExp	#130	#24
PPAPPA	#97	#78
PowerPwr	#67	#74
SP+SP+	#100	#48
Pts POPPO	#57	#49
HavocHav	#90	#105

Wisconsin Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#71	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#39	#78
Run ExplRExp	#129	#77
PPAExp	#75	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#46	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#43	#120
TackleTak	-	#19

Wisconsin Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#4
PPAExp	#102	#49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#6	#85
F7 HavocF7	#37	#127
DB HavocDB	#132	#42

USC on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	WIS Def
Perf GradePerf	#36	#86
SuccessSuc	#11	#88
ExplosiveExp	#91	#11
PPAPPA	#41	#80
PowerPwr	#60	#73
SP+SP+	#15	#22
Pts POPPO	#85	#105
HavocHav	#101	#124

USC Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	WIS Def
Run GameRun	#6	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#86
Run ExplRExp	#106	#60
PPAExp	#21	#81
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#86
TackleTak	-	#13

USC Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	WIS Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#41
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#81
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#5
PPAExp	#74	#76
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#114	#66
F7 HavocF7	#24	#130
DB HavocDB	#134	#92

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

WIS 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 5
USC -14.0 (50.5)
USC won vs Wisconsin this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Wisconsin last year (38-21)

WIS's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Braedyn Locke	164	296	55%	1936	13	10	6.5
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)	43	68	63%	422	1	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)	190	864	10	4.5	55
Darrion Dupree	79	317	1	4.0	32
Cade Yacamelli	33	274	2	8.3	45
Chez Mellusi	56	232	3	4.1	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vinny Anthony	39	672	4	17.2	63
Will Pauling	42	407	3	9.7	28
Trech Kekahuna	25	339	2	13.6	69
CJ Williams	16	248	2	15.5	50

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Mike Tressel (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Hunter Wohler	71	1	0	0	6
Christian Alliegro	66	5	3	0	1
Preston Zachman	58	3	0	0	4
Jake Chaney	55	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Hills (Tr)	26	6	3	2	1
Christian Alliegro	66	5	3	0	1
John Pius (Tr)	21	4	3	3	0
Sebastian Cheeks (Tr)	12	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Hunter Wohler	71	1	0	6
Ben Barten	22	0	1	5
Nyzier Fourqurean	51	2	1	5

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Miller Moss	233	362	64%	2555	18	9	7.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)	101	169	60%	1201	11	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Quinten Joyner	63	478	3	7.6	75
Bryan Jackson	36	188	1	5.2	23
A'Marion Peterson	16	65	1	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	52	764	3	14.7	70
Ja'Kobi Lane	43	525	12	12.2	33
Zachariah Branch	47	503	1	10.7	42
Kyron Ware-Hudson	38	462	3	12.2	39

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Akili Arnold (Tr)	59	1	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braylan Shelby	28	5	3	2	1
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)	27	0	0	0	5
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3