Utah State at USC - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (11:00 PM EDT)
USC -30.5 (62.5) (-7500) Open: -28.5 | 63.5
USC 48 - Utah State: 0

Aggies (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Nate Dreiling (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 38 (25 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: USC -23.5 (SP+ USC -22)
Projected Score: USU: 20 - USC: 44 (64)
USC Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
USU Travel: 640 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (37 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Utah State vs Robert Morris	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Utah State at USC	+30.5	62.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/14	Utah State vs Utah	+20.5	43.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Utah State at Temple	-6.5	53.5	L 29 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Utah State at Boise State	+28.0	66.5	L 30 - 62	O	N
Fri 10/11	Utah State vs UNLV	+19.0	67.5	L 34 - 50	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Utah State vs New Mexico	+1.0	78.5	L 45 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/26	Utah State at Wyoming	-2.5	57.0	W 27 - 25	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Utah State at Washington State	+20.5	69.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Utah State vs Hawai'i	+2.5	62.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Utah State vs San Diego State	-5.0	60.0	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Utah State at Colorado State	+5.5	56.5	L 37 - 42	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

USC's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	USC vs LSU	+4.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/7	USC vs Utah State	-30.5	62.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	USC at Michigan	-4.0	44.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/28	USC vs Wisconsin	-14.0	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/5	USC at Minnesota	-8.5	45.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	USC vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/19	USC at Maryland	-6.5	56.5	L 28 - 29	O	N
Fri 10/25	USC vs Rutgers	-14.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/2	USC at Washington	-2.0	55.0	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	USC vs Nebraska	-6.5	51.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	USC at UCLA	-5.0	53.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/30	USC vs Notre Dame	+6.5	52.5	L 35 - 49	O	N
Fri 12/27	USC vs Texas A&M	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)	31.9	48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)	37.8	48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	30.2	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	24.1	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	12	31.9	25.2	45.6%	4.42	1.8	23	468	199	269	5.7	46%	54%	48%	44%	16%	.24
USC Defense	13	24.1	23.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	12	37.8	45.2	47.4%	4.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	48%	48%	15%	.27
USC Offense	13	30.2	36.8	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	12	27:19	22.5	40%	50%	7.8	73.8	1.8	1.3	6	2.3	1	28.1
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	12	46% (102)	48% (24)	35.1	199.3	5.7	21 (59)	.26 (13)	3.41 (12)	65% (117)	8% (39)	1.11 (18)
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	12	51% (69)	48% (112)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.45 (128)	76% (85)	10% (70)	0.96 (56)
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	12	54% (36)	44% (37)	24.5	38.2	269.1	7.1	11	29 (12)	17 (127)	.25 (69)	1.5 (118)	29% (30)	33% (54)	.4 (38)	8% (124)	2.1 (31)
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	12	49% (64)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (106)	1.5 (30)	27% (129)	32% (97)	.32 (75)	5% (99)	1.8 (21)
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -12.03 #105
Utah State's Offense Rating: 24.87 #19
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.16 #123
2024 Talent Rating: 408.00 #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Utah State's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Utah State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.4 #106
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #45
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -12.03 USC: 12.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -10.4 USC: 11.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 12.16 #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
2024 Talent Rating: 882.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.2

Utah State's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 44
Utah State 20

Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
Utah State 37
USC 30

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
USC 38
Utah State 26

Total Points: 64

USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	USC	48	Utah State	0	USC -30.5	USC	62.5	Under
2016	09/10	USC	45	Utah State	7	USC -14	USC	54.5	Under
2013	09/21	USC	17	Utah State	14	USC -7	Utah State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	3	2	0 Overs
Utah State	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#105) USU at (#37) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	USC
Power RatePwr	#105	#37
SP+SP+	#106	#23
Perf GradeGrade	#116	#44
OffenseOff	#102	#36
DefenseDef	#124	#74
Spec TeamsST	#34	#65
TalentTal	#115	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#16

Utah State Notes
(12/6) Hired HC Mendenhall, last at NM for 1 yr
(11/29) Rgame great vs CSU, 296/6.0. Pass D torched in L
(11/18) 5 INT's vs Hawaii, Rgame great (321, 7.6 ypc)
(11/9) Top WR Jalen Royals out for season (foot)
(10/22) Def stop rate 39% (#130) into week 9
(10/20) Petras 360 yds (NM), forced 4 TOs in near upset
(10/16) Monitor for quit watch. Def/Int Coach/Bad vibes
(10/11) Def is likely worst in CFB. #130+ all metrics
(10/10) Def is awful. Worst 2nd quarter D (nearly 21 ppg!)
(10/10) QB now Petras, hasn't been as awful as expected
(8/4) Portal lost #2 WR Davis (Ole Miss) this late??

USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season

Utah State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#102	#74
SuccessSuc	#31	#94
ExplosiveExp	#59	#24
PPAPPA	#34	#78
PowerPwr	#19	#74
SP+SP+	#45	#48
Pts POPPO	#24	#49
HavocHav	#81	#105

Utah State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#22	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#78
Run ExplRExp	#18	#77
PPAExp	#13	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#97	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#120
TackleTak	-	#19

Utah State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#4
PPAExp	#69	#49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#76	#85
F7 HavocF7	#39	#127
DB HavocDB	#124	#42

USC on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	USU Def
Perf GradePerf	#36	#124
SuccessSuc	#11	#122
ExplosiveExp	#91	#42
PPAPPA	#41	#119
PowerPwr	#60	#123
SP+SP+	#15	#129
Pts POPPO	#85	#122
HavocHav	#101	#81

USC Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#6	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#112
Run ExplRExp	#106	#56
PPAExp	#21	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#128
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#95
TackleTak	-	#107

USC Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	USC Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#30
PPAExp	#74	#106
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#114	#94
F7 HavocF7	#24	#70
DB HavocDB	#134	#99

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 82° - Wind: 5 mph

Rematch from Week 2
USC -30.5 (62.5)
USC won vs Utah State this year (48-0)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Utah State last year (48-0)

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Spencer Petras (Tr)	214	327	65%	2315	17	11	7.1
Bryson Barnes (Tr)	77	126	61%	856	12	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahsul Faison	198	1109	8	5.6	37
Bryson Barnes (Tr)	68	530	5	7.8	63
Herschel Turner	79	405	4	5.1	43
Derrick Jameson	15	140	2	9.3	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	55	834	6	15.2	75
Kyrese Rowan	44	526	3	12.0	57
Otto Tia	44	434	7	9.9	51
Jack Hestera (Tr)	24	340	4	14.2	32

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	117	1	0	1	2
Ike Larsen	80	2	0	0	9
Jon Ross Maye	57	4	0	3	1
John Miller (Tr)	52	6	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cian Slone	49	10	8	5	0
Bronson Olevao	23	4	4	3	0
Lawrence Falatea (Tr)	28	6	3	3	0
John Miller (Tr)	52	6	2	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Ike Larsen	80	2	9
Avante Dickerson	19	2	3
D.J. Graham	42	3	2

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Miller Moss	233	362	64%	2555	18	9	7.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)	101	169	60%	1201	11	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Quinten Joyner	63	478	3	7.6	75
Bryan Jackson	36	188	1	5.2	23
A'Marion Peterson	16	65	1	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	52	764	3	14.7	70
Ja'Kobi Lane	43	525	12	12.2	33
Zachariah Branch	47	503	1	10.7	42
Kyron Ware-Hudson	38	462	3	12.2	39

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Akili Arnold (Tr)	59	1	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braylan Shelby	28	5	3	2	1
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)	94	5	2	2	1
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Eric Gentry	33	7	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)	27	0	0	0	5
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)	60	6	2	1	5
Mason Cobb	72	3	0	0	3