Notre Dame at USC - 2024 Matchup Preview
Notre Dame logo (#9)Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans(#17)USC logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Notre Dame -6.5 (52.5) (-260)  Open: -7.5 | 51.5
Notre Dame 49 - USC: 35

 
Fighting Irish (14 - 2) (13 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (46 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ND is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -12  (SP+ ND -12)
Projected Score: ND: 31 - USC: 19 (51)
ND Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
ND Travel: 1816 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (37 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Notre Dame at Texas A&M+3.047.0W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois-28.546.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/14 Notre Dame at Purdue-11.545.5W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)-27.544.0W 28 - 3UN
Sat 9/28 Notre Dame vs Louisville-6.545.0W 31 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Notre Dame vs Stanford-22.545.5W 49 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech-14.049.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-14.050.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Notre Dame vs Florida State-25.544.5W 52 - 3OY
Sat 11/16 Notre Dame vs Virginia-20.551.0W 35 - 14UY
Sat 11/23 Notre Dame vs Army-14.544.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 11/30 Notre Dame at USC-6.552.5W 49 - 35OY
Fri 12/20 Notre Dame vs Indiana-7.050.0W 27 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Notre Dame vs Georgia-1.546.5W 23 - 10UY
Thu 1/9 Notre Dame vs Penn State+1.545.5W 27 - 24OY
Mon 1/20 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+8.545.5L 23 - 34ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
USC's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/1 USC vs LSU+4.066.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 9/7 USC vs Utah State-30.562.5W 48 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 USC at Michigan-4.044.0L 24 - 27ON
Sat 9/28 USC vs Wisconsin-14.050.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/5 USC at Minnesota-8.545.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 10/12 USC vs Penn State+3.551.5L 30 - 33OY
Sat 10/19 USC at Maryland-6.556.5L 28 - 29ON
Fri 10/25 USC vs Rutgers-14.057.0W 42 - 20OY
Sat 11/2 USC at Washington-2.055.0L 21 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 USC vs Nebraska-6.551.0W 28 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 USC at UCLA-5.053.0W 19 - 13UY
Sat 11/30 USC vs Notre Dame+6.552.5L 35 - 49ON
Fri 12/27 USC vs Texas A&M+3.556.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)36.147% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)15.543% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)30.252% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)24.144% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Offense1636.14647%4.80.8173411811606.353%47%47%47%11%.32
USC Defense1324.123.843.8%3.641.2 - - - - - 46%53%44%44%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Defense1615.518.336.4%2.751.8 - - - - - 51%48%43%29%19%-.02
USC Offense1330.236.848.4%3.761.4214081382695.540%60%52%46%18%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Notre Dame1624:3416.839%76%4.842.40.81.842.1533.2
USC1328:1221.345%47%5.3461.41.23.91.5133.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Offense1653% (46)47% (26)28.6181.36.342 (3).36 (2)3.31 (24)73% (71)8% (26)1.3 (1)
USC Defense1346% (22)44% (78) - - - - .18 (96)3.17 (92)76% (81)7% (127)1 (77)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Defense1651% (78)43% (73) - - - - .1 (58)2.9 (49)67% (29)10% (57)0.85 (12)
USC Offense1340% (126)52% (10)25.2138.45.519 (73).23 (21)3.49 (9)85% (6)8% (24)0.89 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Offense1647% (89)47% (21)14.922.4159.97.210.820 (58)6 (10).29 (50)1.3 (133)28% (19)32% (58).45 (22)3% (6)2.1 (50)
USC Defense1353% (113)44% (103) - - - - - - 10 (66).2 (49)1.3 (4)28% (122)27% (27).14 (6)7% (42)1.8 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Defense1648% (59)29% (1) - - - - - - 18 (4)-.15 (1)1.6 (67)34% (29)27% (24).1 (2)8% (6)1.6 (2)
USC Offense1360% (9)46% (26)24.138269.27.111.225 (31)12 (85).25 (74)1.5 (108)29% (24)36% (18).4 (36)10% (134)2 (74)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 24.66  #5
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 24.52  #24
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -1.27  #2
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54%  #8
Notre Dame's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9  #8
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6  #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1  #7

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 24.66   USC: 12.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 23.9   USC: 11.9




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 12.16  #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62  #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19  #74
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41  #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9  #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6  #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 46
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

Notre Dame's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 13 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 7
Record on Road: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 31
USC 19

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 22
USC 18

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 32
USC 25

Total Points: 57
USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Notre Dame34USC24Notre Dame -10.5USC60.5Under
202411/30USC35Notre Dame49Notre Dame -6.5Notre Dame52.5Over
202310/14Notre Dame48USC20Notre Dame -3Notre Dame61.0Over
202211/26USC38Notre Dame27USC -4USC63.5Over
202110/23Notre Dame31USC16Notre Dame -8Notre Dame59.5Under
201910/12Notre Dame30USC27Notre Dame -10.5USC60.0Under
201811/24USC17Notre Dame24Notre Dame -12.5USC54.0Under
201710/21Notre Dame49USC14Notre Dame -4Notre Dame61.5Over
201611/26USC45Notre Dame27USC -17USC59.5Over
201510/17Notre Dame41USC31Notre Dame -3Notre Dame62.0Over
201411/29USC49Notre Dame14USC -7USC0
201310/19Notre Dame14USC10Notre Dame -1.5Notre Dame0
201211/24USC13Notre Dame22
201110/22Notre Dame17USC31
201011/27USC16Notre Dame20
200910/17Notre Dame27USC34
200811/29USC38Notre Dame3
200710/20Notre Dame0USC38
200611/25USC44Notre Dame24
200510/15Notre Dame31USC34
200411/27USC41Notre Dame10
200310/18Notre Dame14USC45
200110/20Notre Dame27USC16
200011/24USC21Notre Dame38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC1166 Overs
Notre Dame1364 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 109 - 38 - 21 - 1
Road Teams10 - 143 - 91 - 12 - 8

(#5) ND at (#37) USC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDUSC
Power RatePwr #5 #37
SP+SP+ #8 #23
Perf GradeGrade #10 #44
OffenseOff #11 #36
DefenseDef #10 #74
Spec TeamsST #5 #65
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #8 #16
USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms
(10/19) Gagged vs MD, Rgame awful, Moss meh.
(10/18) OL undersized/no depth. #129 in Pass blocking
(10/16) DE Lucas (Starter) out for season
(10/16) Best LB Gentry injured, will redshirt TY
USC Injury Report
Notre Dame on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffUSC Def
Perf GradePerf #11 #74
SuccessSuc #22 #94
ExplosiveExp #35 #24
PPAPPA #8 #78
PowerPwr #24 #74
SP+SP+ #4 #48
Pts POPPO #5 #49
HavocHav #8 #105
Notre Dame Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #4 #92
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #78
Run ExplRExp #1 #77
PPAExp #2 #96
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #24 #92
Stuff RateStuff #36 #120
TackleTak -  #19
Notre Dame Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #37 #48
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #103
Pass ExplPExl #133 #4
PPAExp #50 #49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #59 #85
F7 HavocF7 #26 #127
DB HavocDB #6 #42
USC on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatUSC OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #36 #10
SuccessSuc #11 #8
ExplosiveExp #91 #14
PPAPPA #41 #1
PowerPwr #60 #2
SP+SP+ #15 #7
Pts POPPO #85 #4
HavocHav #101 #25
USC Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
USC OffND Def
Run GameRun #6 #35
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #73
Run ExplRExp #106 #12
PPAExp #21 #58
Run BlockR Blk #87 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #49
Stuff RateStuff #22 #89
TackleTak -  #9
USC Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatUSC OffND Def
Pass GamePass #24 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #26 #1
Pass ExplPExl #108 #67
PPAExp #74 #1
Pass Block/RushP Blk #114 #15
F7 HavocF7 #24 #57
DB HavocDB #134 #6
Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 78°
Rematch from Week 14
Notre Dame 6.5 (52.5)
Notre Dame won at USC this year (49-35)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat USC last year (49-35)
Notre Dame beat USC in 2023 (48-20)
USC beat Notre Dame in 2022 (38-27)

  
ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard (Tr)26940367%28612187.1
Steven Angeli243667%268307.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love1631124176.998
Riley Leonard (Tr)184906174.950
Jadarian Price12074676.270
Aneyas Williams3421926.458
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Greathouse42592414.154
Beaux Collins (Tr)41490312.053
Mitchell Evans4342139.833
Jordan Faison30356111.944

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kiser905231
Xavier Watts834049
Drayk Bowen784122
Adon Shuler593025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rylie Mills379840
Howard Cross III275431
Donovan Hinish344441
Junior Tuihalamaka326331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leonard Moore4820111
Xavier Watts834049
Christian Gray353009

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss23336264%25551897.1
Jayden Maiava (Tr)10116960%12011167.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks198113395.765
Quinten Joyner6347837.675
Bryan Jackson3618815.223
A'Marion Peterson166514.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon52764314.770
Ja'Kobi Lane435251212.233
Zachariah Branch47503110.742
Kyron Ware-Hudson38462312.239

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)945221
Mason Cobb723003
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Akili Arnold (Tr)591111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby285321
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Tr)945221
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Eric Gentry337201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DeCarlos Nicholson (Tr)270005
Kamari Ramsey (Tr)606215
Mason Cobb723003