Michigan at Illinois - 2024 Matchup Preview
Michigan logo Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Michigan -6 (44.0) (-218)  Open: -2.0
Illinois 21 - Michigan: 7  (Big Ten)

 
Wolverines (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (13 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ILL 2nd straight Home Game
MICH coming off BYE
Our Line: Illinois -3  (SP+ MICH -1)

Projected Score: MICH: 22 - ILL: 25 (47)
MICH Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
MICH Travel: 277 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Michigan vs Fresno State-21.048.0W 30 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan vs Texas+7.042.0L 12 - 31ON
Sat 9/14 Michigan vs Arkansas State-22.047.5W 28 - 18UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan vs USC+4.044.0W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Michigan vs Minnesota-10.534.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/5 Michigan at Washington+1.539.5L 17 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan at Illinois-6.044.0L 7 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Michigan vs Michigan State-3.539.0W 24 - 17OY
Sat 11/2 Michigan vs Oregon+14.545.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Michigan at Indiana+14.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.535.5W 50 - 6OY
Sat 11/30 Michigan at Ohio State+20.541.5W 13 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Michigan vs Alabama+16.545.5W 19 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.550.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Illinois vs Kansas+4.558.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 9/14 Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.549.5W 30 - 9UN
Fri 9/20 Illinois at Nebraska+9.541.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Illinois at Penn State+19.548.0L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Illinois vs Purdue-22.547.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 10/19 Illinois vs Michigan+6.044.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 Illinois at Oregon+22.554.0L 9 - 38UN
Sat 11/2 Illinois vs Minnesota+2.547.0L 17 - 25UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Illinois vs Michigan State-2.047.5W 38 - 16OY
Sat 11/23 Illinois at Rutgers+2.048.0W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/30 Illinois vs Northwestern-8.542.5W 38 - 28OY
Tue 12/31 Illinois vs South Carolina+9.550.0W 21 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)2241% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)19.938% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)28.345% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)21.750% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense13221340.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1
ILL Defense1321.717.646.3%3.481.5 - - - - - 48%52%50%43%13%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense1319.919.538.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
ILL Offense1328.33244.6%4.230.9193381401984.453%47%45%44%18%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Illinois1326:5218.744%50%5.1390.91.53.82.2130.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)
ILL Defense1348% (37)50% (127) - - - - .19 (108)3.57 (132)75% (75)8% (120)0.8 (5)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
ILL Offense1353% (50)45% (51)31.81404.420 (67).13 (67)3.14 (49)81% (17)11% (107)0.91 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)
ILL Defense1352% (95)43% (90) - - - - - - 12 (39).19 (44)1.4 (17)28% (117)34% (111).37 (97)6% (84)1.9 (40)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
ILL Offense1347% (83)44% (44)15.425.5197.87.812.921 (51)5 (6).38 (16)1.8 (15)31% (62)31% (81).42 (31)6% (82)2.3 (5)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 5.11  #43
Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.94  #116
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.69  #51
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41%  #16
Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6  #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1  #93
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1  #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 5.11   Illinois: 10.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 10.6   Illinois: 9.6




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 10.69  #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25  #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87  #72
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 25
Michigan 22


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Illinois 30
Michigan 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Illinois 25
Michigan 19

Total Points: 44
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Illinois21Michigan7Michigan -6Illinois44.0Under
202211/19Michigan19Illinois17Michigan -17Illinois41.5Under
201910/12Illinois25Michigan42Michigan -24.5Illinois49.0Over
201610/22Michigan41Illinois8Michigan -28Michigan51.5Under
201210/13Michigan45Illinois0
201111/12Illinois14Michigan31
201011/06Michigan67Illinois65
200910/31Illinois38Michigan13
200810/04Michigan20Illinois45
200710/20Illinois17Michigan27
200410/16Illinois19Michigan30
200310/18Michigan56Illinois14
200209/28Illinois28Michigan45
200109/29Michigan45Illinois20
200009/22Illinois31Michigan35
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois331 Overs
Michigan1213 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 73 - 11 - 12 - 0
Road Teams7 - 81 - 30 - 21 - 1

(#43) MICH at (#39) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMICHILL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #43 #39
SP+SP+ #26 #31
Perf GradeGrade #21 #38
OffenseOff #101 #38
DefenseDef #7 #50
Spec TeamsST #38 #47
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #16 #48
Michigan Notes
(12/24) Signed QB Keene (Fresno) w Underwood
(12/11) Hired OC Chip Lindsey? (NC, UCF, Troy HC)
(12/3) Fired OC Kirk Campbell after the season
(12/1) Beat OSU again, Rgame tough, Def incredible
(11/13) Great 2nd H vs IU, nearly won. Off just sucks
(10/28) QB Tuttle retired after 5th concussion
(10/20) Star CB Johnson left Ill game (inj)
(10/19) Off gained yds but 3 TOs killed em. Bad team
(10/14) Replaced LT (worst PFF graded LT), shuffling OL
(10/10) Staff needs changing. DC Wink has to go
(10/6) QB Tuttle healthy, playing. Didn't matter vs UW
(9/21) Bully balled USC w/ a high school Off & great D
Michigan Injury Report
Michigan on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat
MICH OffILL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #101 #50
SuccessSuc #102 #115
ExplosiveExp #133 #8
PPAPPA #113 #76
PowerPwr #116 #72
SP+SP+ #93 #26
Pts POPPO #45 #37
HavocHav #58 #117
Michigan Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat
MICH OffILL Def
Run GameRun #58 #102
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #127
Run ExplRExp #91 #5
PPAExp #86 #108
Run BlockR Blk #72 -
OL YdsOLY #80 #132
Stuff RateStuff #27 #134
TackleTak -  #7
Michigan Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat
MICH OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #125 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #90
Pass ExplPExl #131 #17
PPAExp #119 #44
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #90 #50
F7 HavocF7 #73 #120
DB HavocDB #51 #84
Illinois on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatILL OffMICH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #38 #7
SuccessSuc #45 #28
ExplosiveExp #44 #73
PPAPPA #31 #40
PowerPwr #47 #51
SP+SP+ #55 #10
Pts POPPO #39 #36
HavocHav #103 #23
Illinois Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ILL OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #47 #2
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #18
Run ExplRExp #95 #11
PPAExp #67 #24
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #24
Stuff RateStuff #20 #61
TackleTak -  #10
Illinois Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatILL OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #40 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #42
Pass ExplPExl #15 #71
PPAExp #16 #56
Pass Block/RushP Blk #87 #1
F7 HavocF7 #107 #50
DB HavocDB #82 #10
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

MICH 5 Year Profile: Declining CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 74°
Rematch from Week 8
Michigan 6.0 (44.0)
Illinois won vs Michigan this year (21-7)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Michigan last year (21-7)
Michigan beat Illinois in 2022 (19-17)

  
MICH's OC Kirk Campbell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Davis Warren13320764%1198795.8
Jack Tuttle305060%306126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kalel Mullings185948125.163
Donovan Edwards12858944.641
Alex Orji5726914.729
Jordan Marshall3112003.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Colston Loveland56582510.436
Tyler Morris23248210.828
Semaj Morgan2713915.131
Fredrick Moore11128111.620

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann897221
Jaishawn Barham (Tr)664152
Mason Graham467431
Makari Paige451004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josaiah Stewart3313970
TJ Guy327660
Derrick Moore236442
Mason Graham467431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry373029
Jyaire Hill356108
Quinten Johnson431005

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer21134761%27172267.8
Donovan Leary2540%29005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua McCray117609105.260
Aidan Laughery9758946.164
Kaden Feagin6730634.634
Luke Altmyer9921742.237
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Patrick Bryant539781018.564
Zakhari Franklin (Tr)56658411.844
Hank Beatty20294114.759
Collin Dixon18264014.741

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey942005
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dylan Rosiek613201
James Kreutz541021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dennis Briggs Jr. (Tr)425450
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Seth Coleman537353
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Scott492106
Matthew Bailey942005
Jaheim Clarke341015