Purdue at Illinois - 2024 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini(#17)

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Illinois -22.5 (47.5) (-1800) Open: -17.5
Illinois 50 - Purdue: 49 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 40 (16 - 46 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 16.2 MPH
PUR 2nd straight Road Game
ILL coming off BYE
PUR is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -28 (SP+ ILL -26)
Projected Score: PUR: 11 - ILL: 39 (50)
ILL Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
PUR Travel: 73 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Fighting Illini (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Purdue vs Indiana State	-35.5	52.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Purdue vs Notre Dame	+11.5	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	Purdue at Oregon State	+1.5	51.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Purdue vs Nebraska	+10.0	47.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/5	Purdue at Wisconsin	+12.0	44.5	L 6 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	Purdue at Illinois	+22.5	47.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Purdue vs Oregon	+30.0	61.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Purdue vs Northwestern	-3.0	44.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/9	Purdue at Ohio State	+37.5	55.5	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/16	Purdue vs Penn State	+30.0	51.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/22	Purdue at Michigan State	+14.0	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Purdue at Indiana	+28.5	56.5	L 0 - 66	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Illinois vs Eastern Illinois	-28.5	50.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Illinois vs Kansas	+4.5	58.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Illinois vs Central Michigan	-21.5	49.5	W 30 - 9	U	N
Fri 9/20	Illinois at Nebraska	+9.5	41.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Illinois at Penn State	+19.5	48.0	L 7 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Illinois vs Purdue	-22.5	47.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/19	Illinois vs Michigan	+6.0	44.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Illinois at Oregon	+22.5	54.0	L 9 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/2	Illinois vs Minnesota	+2.5	47.0	L 17 - 25	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Illinois vs Michigan State	-2.0	47.5	W 38 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Illinois at Rutgers	+2.0	48.0	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Illinois vs Northwestern	-8.5	42.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Illinois vs South Carolina	+9.5	50.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)	15.8	42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)	39.9	49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)	28.3	45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)	21.7	50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	12	15.8	15.5	40.8%	3.34	1.6	15	299	116	184	4	46%	53%	42%	40%	22%	.11
ILL Defense	13	21.7	17.6	46.3%	3.48	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	50%	43%	13%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	12	39.9	45.8	49.3%	4.82	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	49%	50%	12%	.39
ILL Offense	13	28.3	32	44.6%	4.23	0.9	19	338	140	198	4.4	53%	47%	45%	44%	18%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	12	26:50	14.6	31%	28%	5.5	51.8	1.6	0.4	5.2	1.8	0	26.8
Illinois	13	26:52	18.7	44%	50%	5.1	39	0.9	1.5	3.8	2.2	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	12	46% (94)	42% (90)	28.8	115.5	4	9 (125)	.04 (108)	3.04 (65)	59% (126)	14% (128)	0.8 (130)
ILL Defense	13	48% (37)	50% (127)	-	-	-	-	.19 (108)	3.57 (132)	75% (75)	8% (120)	0.8 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	12	53% (96)	49% (120)	-	-	-	-	.32 (134)	3.39 (120)	76% (79)	8% (109)	1.15 (124)
ILL Offense	13	53% (50)	45% (51)	31.8	140	4.4	20 (67)	.13 (67)	3.14 (49)	81% (17)	11% (107)	0.91 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	12	53% (40)	40% (93)	15.8	27.4	183.9	6.7	11.7	13 (116)	9 (48)	.16 (103)	1.5 (92)	32% (78)	31% (72)	.49 (14)	8% (118)	2.1 (29)
ILL Defense	13	52% (95)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.19 (44)	1.4 (17)	28% (117)	34% (111)	.37 (97)	6% (84)	1.9 (40)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	12	47% (40)	50% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.48 (130)	1.6 (88)	28% (115)	41% (134)	.63 (134)	4% (125)	2.1 (90)
ILL Offense	13	47% (83)	44% (44)	15.4	25.5	197.8	7.8	12.9	21 (51)	5 (6)	.38 (16)	1.8 (15)	31% (62)	31% (81)	.42 (31)	6% (82)	2.3 (5)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -18.22 #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -18.22 Illinois: 10.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -16.2 Illinois: 9.6

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 10.69 #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87 #72
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 39.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.8

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 39
Purdue 11

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Illinois 35
Purdue 14

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Illinois 36
Purdue 18

Total Points: 54

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Purdue	27	Illinois	43	Illinois -7.5	Illinois	55.5	Over
2024	10/12	Illinois	50	Purdue	49	Illinois -22.5	Purdue	47.5	Over
2023	09/30	Purdue	44	Illinois	19	Purdue -1.0	Purdue	54.0	Over
2022	11/12	Illinois	24	Purdue	31	Illinois -6.0	Purdue	44.0	Over
2021	09/25	Purdue	13	Illinois	9	Purdue -10.5	Illinois	53.5	Under
2020	10/31	Illinois	24	Purdue	31	Purdue -7.0	NA	0
2019	10/26	Purdue	6	Illinois	24	Purdue -9	Illinois	54.5	Under
2018	10/13	Illinois	7	Purdue	46	Purdue -10.5	Purdue	62.0	Under
2017	11/04	Purdue	29	Illinois	10	Purdue -14	Purdue	50.0	Under
2016	10/08	Illinois	31	Purdue	34	Illinois -9	Purdue	49.5	Over
2015	11/07	Purdue	14	Illinois	48	Illinois -1.5	Illinois	50.0	Over
2014	10/04	Illinois	27	Purdue	38	Illinois -10.5	Purdue	0
2013	11/23	Purdue	16	Illinois	20	Illinois -6.5	Purdue	0
2012	11/17	Illinois	17	Purdue	20
2011	10/22	Purdue	21	Illinois	14
2010	10/30	Illinois	44	Purdue	10
2009	10/24	Purdue	24	Illinois	14
2006	11/11	Illinois	31	Purdue	42
2005	11/12	Purdue	37	Illinois	3
2004	09/25	Illinois	30	Purdue	38
2003	10/04	Purdue	43	Illinois	10
2002	10/12	Illinois	38	Purdue	31
2001	11/03	Purdue	13	Illinois	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	8	4	6 Overs
Purdue	15	8	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 13	3 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 10	9 - 3	3 - 1	6 - 2

(#120) PUR at (#39) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	ILL
Power RatePwr	#120	#39
SP+SP+	#121	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#38
OffenseOff	#91	#38
DefenseDef	#132	#50
Spec TeamsST	#66	#47
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#48

Purdue Notes(12/8) Hired HC Barry Odom (UNLV)
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful
(9/15) Run Def awful, 364 (8.5 ypc), Off 25/38 (1.5) vs ND
Purdue Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ILL Def
Perf GradePerf	#91	#50
SuccessSuc	#96	#115
ExplosiveExp	#117	#8
PPAPPA	#112	#76
PowerPwr	#94	#72
SP+SP+	#116	#26
Pts POPPO	#115	#37
HavocHav	#131	#117

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#84	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#127
Run ExplRExp	#130	#5
PPAExp	#108	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#132
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#134
TackleTak	-	#7

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#17
PPAExp	#103	#44
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#50
F7 HavocF7	#128	#120
DB HavocDB	#118	#84

Illinois on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	PUR Def
Perf GradePerf	#38	#132
SuccessSuc	#45	#129
ExplosiveExp	#44	#112
PPAPPA	#31	#134
PowerPwr	#47	#134
SP+SP+	#55	#110
Pts POPPO	#39	#134
HavocHav	#103	#125

Illinois Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#47	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	#51	#120
Run ExplRExp	#95	#124
PPAExp	#67	#134
Run BlockR Blk	#70	-
OL YdsOLY	#49	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#20	#106
TackleTak	-	#111

Illinois Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#15	#88
PPAExp	#16	#130
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#87	#97
F7 HavocF7	#107	#109
DB HavocDB	#82	#125

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 84° - Wind: 16 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Illinois -22.5 (47.5)
Illinois won vs Purdue this year (50-49)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Purdue last year (50-49)
Purdue beat Illinois in 2023 (44-19)
Purdue beat Illinois in 2022 (31-24)

PUR's OC (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card	144	248	58%	1641	9	7	6.6
Ryan Browne	43	76	57%	532	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	138	687	4	5.0	63
Reggie Love III (Tr)	83	372	2	4.5	22
Ryan Browne	50	155	0	3.1	23
Elijah Jackson	6	97	1	16.2	69

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Max Klare	51	685	4	13.4	62
Jahmal Edrine	23	365	2	15.9	53
Jaron Tibbs	25	305	2	12.2	38
Devin Mockobee	17	170	1	10.0	21

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Yanni Karlaftis	57	2	1	2	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Cole Brevard	19	6	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)	40	2	0	1	4

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer	211	347	61%	2717	22	6	7.8
Donovan Leary	2	5	40%	29	0	0	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua McCray	117	609	10	5.2	60
Aidan Laughery	97	589	4	6.1	64
Kaden Feagin	67	306	3	4.6	34
Luke Altmyer	99	217	4	2.2	37

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Patrick Bryant	53	978	10	18.5	64
Zakhari Franklin (Tr)	56	658	4	11.8	44
Hank Beatty	20	294	1	14.7	59
Collin Dixon	18	264	0	14.7	41

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Bailey	94	2	0	0	5
Gabe Jacas	71	13	8	9	0
Dylan Rosiek	61	3	2	0	1
James Kreutz	54	1	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Jacas	71	13	8	9	0
Dennis Briggs Jr. (Tr)	42	5	4	5	0
Te-Rah Edwards	38	5	3	7	0
Seth Coleman	53	7	3	5	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Scott	49	2	1	0	6
Matthew Bailey	94	2	0	0	5
Jaheim Clarke	34	1	0	1	5