Purdue at Illinois - 2024 Matchup Preview
Purdue logo   Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini  Illinois logo
Saturday, October 12th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Illinois -22.5 (47.5) (-1800)  Open: -17.5
Illinois 50 - Purdue: 49  (Big Ten)

 
Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (16 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PUR 2nd straight Road Game
ILL coming off BYE
PUR is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -28  (SP+ ILL -26)
Projected Score: PUR: 10 - ILL: 38 (49)
ILL Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
PUR Travel: 73 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Purdue's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Purdue vs Indiana State-35.552.5W 49 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Purdue vs Notre Dame+11.545.5L 7 - 66ON
Sat 9/21 Purdue at Oregon State+1.551.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Purdue vs Nebraska+10.047.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 10/5 Purdue at Wisconsin+12.044.5L 6 - 52ON
Sat 10/12 Purdue at Illinois+22.547.5L 49 - 50OY
Fri 10/18 Purdue vs Oregon+30.061.0L 0 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Purdue vs Northwestern-3.044.5L 20 - 26ON
Sat 11/9 Purdue at Ohio State+37.555.5L 0 - 45UN
Sat 11/16 Purdue vs Penn State+30.051.5L 10 - 49ON
Fri 11/22 Purdue at Michigan State+14.049.0L 17 - 24UY
Sat 11/30 Purdue at Indiana+28.556.5L 0 - 66ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.550.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Illinois vs Kansas+4.558.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 9/14 Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.549.5W 30 - 9UN
Fri 9/20 Illinois at Nebraska+9.541.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Illinois at Penn State+19.548.0L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Illinois vs Purdue-22.547.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 10/19 Illinois vs Michigan+6.044.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 Illinois at Oregon+22.554.0L 9 - 38UN
Sat 11/2 Illinois vs Minnesota+2.547.0L 17 - 25UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Illinois vs Michigan State-2.047.5W 38 - 16OY
Sat 11/23 Illinois at Rutgers+2.048.0W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/30 Illinois vs Northwestern-8.542.5W 38 - 28OY
Tue 12/31 Illinois vs South Carolina+9.550.0W 21 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#86 (.16)42% (60)18.845% (51)3.16 (60)16941% (78)2113.21 (112)#74 (.19)40% (44)31.841% (45)40% (52)4.28 (112)57.61.51.5
ILL#66 (.2)45% (30)29.444% (56)3.31 (32)12548% (14)2663.9 (71)#85 (.2)44% (102)23.645% (87)45% (110)4.09 (96)62.41.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Offense1218.815.842.5%3.211.5203801692114.451%48%45%41%18%.16
ILL Defense1223.614.444.4%4.091.3 - - - - - 51%49%45%45%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Defense1231.834.440.2%4.281.5 - - - - - 51%49%41%40%17%.19
ILL Offense1229.431.345.5%3.91.9203911252663.845%53%44%48%20%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Purdue1230:2520.436%39%657.61.51.55.82.8129.4
Illinois1228:2420.337%54%6.662.41.91.34.81.9226
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Offense1251% (55)45% (51)38.5168.84.420 (61).15 (69)3.16 (60)54% (133)12% (118)0.98 (76)
ILL Defense1251% (75)45% (87) - - - - .15 (78)3.27 (104)73% (68)9% (100)0.89 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Defense1251% (80)41% (45) - - - - .08 (31)3 (48)68% (41)11% (38)0.97 (53)
ILL Offense1245% (103)44% (56)33125.13.812 (116).07 (108)3.31 (32)67% (109)12% (98)0.84 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Offense1248% (81)41% (78)19.532.7211.26.510.815 (96)10 (56).22 (89)1.5 (111)31% (56)30% (75).31 (75)6% (71)2.1 (58)
ILL Defense1249% (69)45% (110) - - - - - - 7 (111).28 (76)1.5 (21)31% (78)34% (114).3 (63)6% (62)1.8 (7)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Defense1249% (56)40% (52) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (102)1.8 (121)33% (50)32% (93).38 (101)6% (73)2.2 (96)
ILL Offense1253% (35)48% (14)21.834.5265.97.712.223 (51)13 (97).37 (35)1.5 (108)28% (14)33% (48).36 (63)9% (130)1.9 (108)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -18.22  #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91  #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82  #134
2024 Talent Rating: 382.00  #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 12%  #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2  #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2  #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6  #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -18.22   Illinois: 10.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -16.2   Illinois: 9.6




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 10.69  #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25  #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87  #72
2024 Talent Rating: 328.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 38
Purdue 10

Projected Total Points: 49
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Purdue27Illinois43Illinois -7.5Illinois55.5Over
202410/12Illinois50Purdue49Illinois -22.5Purdue47.5Over
202309/30Purdue44Illinois19Purdue -1.0Purdue54.0Over
202211/12Illinois24Purdue31Illinois -6.0Purdue44.0Over
202109/25Purdue13Illinois9Purdue -10.5Illinois53.5Under
202010/31Illinois24Purdue31Purdue -7.0NA0
201910/26Purdue6Illinois24Purdue -9Illinois54.5Under
201810/13Illinois7Purdue46Purdue -10.5Purdue62.0Under
201711/04Purdue29Illinois10Purdue -14Purdue50.0Under
201610/08Illinois31Purdue34Illinois -9Purdue49.5Over
201511/07Purdue14Illinois48Illinois -1.5Illinois50.0Over
201410/04Illinois27Purdue38Illinois -10.5Purdue0
201311/23Purdue16Illinois20Illinois -6.5Purdue0
201211/17Illinois17Purdue20
201110/22Purdue21Illinois14
201010/30Illinois44Purdue10
200910/24Purdue24Illinois14
200611/11Illinois31Purdue42
200511/12Purdue37Illinois3
200409/25Illinois30Purdue38
200310/04Purdue43Illinois10
200210/12Illinois38Purdue31
200111/03Purdue13Illinois38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois846 Overs
Purdue1584 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 133 - 92 - 61 - 3
Road Teams13 - 109 - 33 - 16 - 2

(#120) PUR at (#39) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPURILL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #120 #39
SP+SP+ #121 #31
Perf GradeGrade #123 #38
OffenseOff #91 #38
DefenseDef #132 #50
Spec TeamsST #66 #47
TalentTal #44 #65
Blue ChipsBC% #35 #48
Purdue Notes
(12/8) Hired HC Barry Odom (UNLV)
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful
(9/15) Run Def awful, 364 (8.5 ypc), Off 25/38 (1.5) vs ND
Purdue Injury Report
Purdue on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
PUR OffILL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #91 #50
SuccessSuc #60 #102
ExplosiveExp #109 #14
PPAPPA #86 #85
PowerPwr #94 #72
SP+SP+ #116 #26
Pts POPPO #112 #96
HavocHav #106 #87
Purdue Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
PUR OffILL Def
Run GameRun #84 #102
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #87
Run ExplRExp #76 #22
PPAExp #69 #78
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #104
Stuff RateStuff #107 #83
TackleTak -  #7
Purdue Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
PUR OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #72 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #110
Pass ExplPExl #111 #21
PPAExp #89 #76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #99 #50
F7 HavocF7 #118 #100
DB HavocDB #71 #62
Illinois on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatILL OffPUR Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #38 #132
SuccessSuc #30 #44
ExplosiveExp #113 #103
PPAPPA #66 #74
PowerPwr #47 #134
SP+SP+ #55 #110
Pts POPPO #71 #112
HavocHav #124 #48
Illinois Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ILL OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #47 #112
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #45
Run ExplRExp #125 #53
PPAExp #108 #31
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #48
Stuff RateStuff #23 #50
TackleTak -  #111
Illinois Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatILL OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #40 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #52
Pass ExplPExl #108 #121
PPAExp #35 #102
Pass Block/RushP Blk #87 #97
F7 HavocF7 #98 #38
DB HavocDB #130 #73
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Illinois -22.5 (47.5)
Illinois won vs Purdue this year (50-49)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Purdue last year (43-27)
Illinois beat Purdue in 2024 (50-49)
Purdue beat Illinois in 2023 (44-19)

  
PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card14424858%1641976.6
Ryan Browne437657%532427.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee13868745.063
Reggie Love III (Tr)8337224.522
Ryan Browne5015503.123
Elijah Jackson697116.269
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Max Klare51685413.462
Jahmal Edrine23365215.953
Jaron Tibbs25305212.238
Devin Mockobee17170110.021

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1045106
Kydran Jenkins8313751
Yanni Karlaftis572121
Will Heldt5610550
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kydran Jenkins8313751
Will Heldt5610550
Nyland Green (Tr)232205
Cole Brevard196200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1045106
Nyland Green (Tr)232205
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)402014

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer21134761%27172267.8
Donovan Leary2540%29005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua McCray117609105.260
Aidan Laughery9758946.164
Kaden Feagin6730634.634
Luke Altmyer9921742.237
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Patrick Bryant539781018.564
Zakhari Franklin (Tr)56658411.844
Hank Beatty20294114.759
Collin Dixon18264014.741

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey942005
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dylan Rosiek613201
James Kreutz541021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dennis Briggs Jr. (Tr)425450
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Seth Coleman537353
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Scott492106
Matthew Bailey942005
Jaheim Clarke341015