Illinois at Oregon - 2024 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Oregon Ducks

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Oregon -22.5 (54.0) (-1800) Open: -21.0 | 53.5
Oregon 38 - Illinois: 9 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -20 (SP+ ORE -16)
Projected Score: ILL: 18 - ORE: 38 (56)
ORE Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
ILL Travel: 1794 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Illinois vs Eastern Illinois	-28.5	50.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Illinois vs Kansas	+4.5	58.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Illinois vs Central Michigan	-21.5	49.5	W 30 - 9	U	N
Fri 9/20	Illinois at Nebraska	+9.5	41.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Illinois at Penn State	+19.5	48.0	L 7 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Illinois vs Purdue	-22.5	47.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/19	Illinois vs Michigan	+6.0	44.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Illinois at Oregon	+22.5	54.0	L 9 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/2	Illinois vs Minnesota	+2.5	47.0	L 17 - 25	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Illinois vs Michigan State	-2.0	47.5	W 38 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Illinois at Rutgers	+2.0	48.0	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Illinois vs Northwestern	-8.5	42.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Illinois vs South Carolina	+9.5	50.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Oregon's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon vs Idaho	-36.5
Sat 9/7	Oregon vs Boise State	-17.5	60.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oregon at Oregon State	-16.0	50.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Oregon at UCLA	-23.5	54.5	W 34 - 13	U	N
Fri 10/4	Oregon vs Michigan State	-22.5	53.0	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon vs Ohio State	+3.5	54.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Oregon at Purdue	-30.0	61.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Oregon vs Illinois	-22.5	54.0	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oregon at Michigan	-14.5	45.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oregon vs Maryland	-24.0	58.0	W 39 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon at Wisconsin	-13.5	49.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Oregon vs Washington	-17.5	50.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Oregon vs Penn State	-3.5	51.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	#66 (.2)	45% (30)	29.4	44% (56)	3.31 (32)	125	48% (14)	266	3.9 (71)	#85 (.2)	44% (102)	23.6	45% (87)	45% (110)	4.09 (96)	62.4	1.9	1.3
ORE	#2 (.49)	57% (1)	36.9	57% (2)	3.69 (4)	171	57% (1)	318	5.11 (1)	#19 (.1)	38% (30)	17.9	39% (35)	39% (27)	3.33 (24)	59.1	0.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	12	29.4	26.6	45.5%	3.9	1.9	20	391	125	266	3.8	45%	53%	44%	48%	20%	.2
ORE Defense	14	17.9	16.8	38.4%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	39%	39%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	12	23.6	35.6	44.4%	4.09	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	45%	15%	.2
ORE Offense	14	36.9	43.1	56.9%	5.11	0.5	24	490	171	318	5.9	44%	56%	57%	57%	9%	.49

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	12	28:24	20.3	37%	54%	6.6	62.4	1.9	1.3	4.8	1.9	2	26
Oregon	14	28:31	24.4	51%	74%	6.5	59.1	0.5	1.1	4.8	2.4	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	12	45% (103)	44% (56)	33	125.1	3.8	12 (116)	.07 (108)	3.31 (32)	67% (109)	12% (98)	0.84 (125)
ORE Defense	14	39% (2)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	.08 (32)	3.08 (60)	55% (6)	9% (96)	0.97 (54)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	12	51% (75)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.15 (78)	3.27 (104)	73% (68)	9% (100)	0.89 (22)
ORE Offense	14	44% (107)	57% (2)	29.1	171.4	5.9	32 (10)	.37 (2)	3.69 (4)	78% (32)	6% (3)	1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	12	53% (35)	48% (14)	21.8	34.5	265.9	7.7	12.2	23 (51)	13 (97)	.37 (35)	1.5 (108)	28% (14)	33% (48)	.36 (63)	9% (130)	1.9 (108)
ORE Defense	14	59% (132)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.16 (16)	1.5 (45)	32% (70)	30% (60)	.33 (78)	8% (13)	2 (45)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	12	49% (69)	45% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.28 (76)	1.5 (21)	31% (78)	34% (114)	.3 (63)	6% (62)	1.8 (7)
ORE Offense	14	56% (22)	57% (1)	26	33.7	318.3	9.4	12.2	44 (1)	5 (6)	.59 (3)	1.5 (112)	24% (3)	43% (3)	.73 (2)	3% (4)	2 (70)

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 6.78 #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87 #72
2024 Talent Rating: 328.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 6.78 Oregon: 28.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 9.6 Oregon: 26.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.2 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 619.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 38
Illinois 18

Projected Total Points: 56

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Oregon	38	Illinois	9	Oregon -22.5	Oregon	54.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	1	1	0 Overs
Illinois	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#39) ILL at (#2) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	ORE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#39	#2
SP+SP+	#31	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#4
OffenseOff	#38	#9
DefenseDef	#50	#4
Spec TeamsST	#47	#26
TalentTal	#65	#5
Blue ChipsBC%	#48	#8

Illinois Injury Report

Oregon Notes(11/18) Rgame bad vs Wisc, Gabriel OK, missed WR Tez
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
(7/30) DL & DB's both PFF top 10, but 4/5 DBs are portals.
Oregon Injury Report

Illinois on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	ORE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#38	#4
SuccessSuc	#30	#30
ExplosiveExp	#113	#78
PPAPPA	#66	#19
PowerPwr	#47	#19
SP+SP+	#55	#14
Pts POPPO	#71	#24
HavocHav	#124	#52

Illinois Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#47	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#35
Run ExplRExp	#125	#54
PPAExp	#108	#32
Run BlockR Blk	#70	-
OL YdsOLY	#32	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#75
TackleTak	-	#8

Illinois Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#45
PPAExp	#35	#16
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#87	#7
F7 HavocF7	#98	#96
DB HavocDB	#130	#13

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#9	#50
SuccessSuc	#1	#102
ExplosiveExp	#67	#14
PPAPPA	#2	#85
PowerPwr	#4	#72
SP+SP+	#2	#26
Pts POPPO	#1	#96
HavocHav	#2	#87

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#11	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#87
Run ExplRExp	#37	#22
PPAExp	#2	#78
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#83
TackleTak	-	#7

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#21
PPAExp	#3	#76
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#21	#50
F7 HavocF7	#3	#100
DB HavocDB	#4	#62

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Oregon -22.5 (54.0)
Oregon won vs Illinois this year (38-9)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Illinois in 2024 (38-9)

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer	211	347	61%	2717	22	6	7.8
Donovan Leary	2	5	40%	29	0	0	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua McCray	117	609	10	5.2	60
Aidan Laughery	97	589	4	6.1	64
Kaden Feagin	67	306	3	4.6	34
Luke Altmyer	99	217	4	2.2	37

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Patrick Bryant	53	978	10	18.5	64
Zakhari Franklin (Tr)	56	658	4	11.8	44
Hank Beatty	20	294	1	14.7	59
Collin Dixon	18	264	0	14.7	41

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Bailey	94	2	0	0	5
Gabe Jacas	71	13	8	9	0
Dylan Rosiek	61	3	2	0	1
James Kreutz	54	1	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Jacas	71	13	8	9	0
Dennis Briggs Jr. (Tr)	42	5	4	5	0
Te-Rah Edwards	38	5	3	7	0
Seth Coleman	53	7	3	5	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Scott	49	2	1	0	6
Matthew Bailey	94	2	0	0	5
Jaheim Clarke	34	1	0	1	5

ORE's OC Junior Adams (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	326	447	73%	3857	30	6	8.6
Dante Moore (Tr)	7	8	88%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Noah Whittington	118	540	6	4.6	28
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	75	149	7	2.0	54
Da'Jaun Riggs	11	82	1	7.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden	45	718	5	16.0	59
Evan Stewart (Tr)	48	613	5	12.8	69
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4
Tysheem Johnson	58	3	0	0	0
Kobe Savage (Tr)	57	3	0	0	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matayo Uiagalelei	37	11	9	6	1
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	38	1	0	0	10
Dontae Manning	18	1	0	0	6
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5