Illinois at Oregon - 2024 Matchup Preview
Illinois logo Illinois Fighting Illini at Oregon DucksOregon logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Oregon -22.5 (54.0) (-1800)  Open: -21.0 | 53.5
Oregon 38 - Illinois: 9  (Big Ten)

 
Fighting Illini (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
ORE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -20   (SP+ ORE -16)
Projected Score: ILL: 17 - ORE: 37 (52)
ORE Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
ILL Travel: 1794 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.550.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Illinois vs Kansas+4.558.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 9/14 Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.549.5W 30 - 9UN
Fri 9/20 Illinois at Nebraska+9.541.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Illinois at Penn State+19.548.0L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Illinois vs Purdue-22.547.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 10/19 Illinois vs Michigan+6.044.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 Illinois at Oregon+22.554.0L 9 - 38UN
Sat 11/2 Illinois vs Minnesota+2.547.0L 17 - 25UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Illinois vs Michigan State-2.047.5W 38 - 16OY
Sat 11/23 Illinois at Rutgers+2.048.0W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/30 Illinois vs Northwestern-8.542.5W 38 - 28OY
Tue 12/31 Illinois vs South Carolina+9.550.0W 21 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Oregon's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Oregon vs Idaho-36.5
Sat 9/7 Oregon vs Boise State-17.560.5W 37 - 34ON
Sat 9/14 Oregon at Oregon State-16.050.0W 49 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Oregon at UCLA-23.554.5W 34 - 13UN
Fri 10/4 Oregon vs Michigan State-22.553.0W 31 - 10UN
Sat 10/12 Oregon vs Ohio State+3.554.5W 32 - 31OY
Fri 10/18 Oregon at Purdue-30.061.0W 35 - 0UY
Sat 10/26 Oregon vs Illinois-22.554.0W 38 - 9UY
Sat 11/2 Oregon at Michigan-14.545.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/9 Oregon vs Maryland-24.058.0W 39 - 18UN
Sat 11/16 Oregon at Wisconsin-13.549.5W 16 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 Oregon vs Washington-17.550.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 12/7 Oregon vs Penn State-3.551.5W 45 - 37OY
Wed 1/1 Oregon vs Ohio State+2.555.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL#66 (.2)45% (30)28.344% (56)3.31 (32)12548% (14)2663.9 (71)#85 (.2)44% (102)21.745% (87)45% (110)4.09 (96)62.41.91.3
ORE#2 (.49)57% (1)34.957% (2)3.69 (4)17157% (1)3185.11 (1)#19 (.1)38% (30)19.439% (35)39% (27)3.33 (24)59.10.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Offense1228.321.345.5%3.91.9203911252663.845%53%44%48%20%.2
ORE Defense1419.419.638.4%3.331.1 - - - - - 39%59%39%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Defense1221.728.544.4%4.091.3 - - - - - 51%49%45%45%15%.2
ORE Offense1434.935.756.9%5.110.5244901713185.944%56%57%57%9%.49

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Illinois1228:2420.337%54%6.662.41.91.34.81.9226
Oregon1428:3124.451%74%6.559.10.51.14.82.4129.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Offense1245% (103)44% (56)33125.13.812 (116).07 (108)3.31 (32)67% (109)12% (98)0.84 (125)
ORE Defense1439% (2)39% (35) - - - - .08 (32)3.08 (60)55% (6)9% (96)0.97 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Defense1251% (75)45% (87) - - - - .15 (78)3.27 (104)73% (68)9% (100)0.89 (22)
ORE Offense1444% (107)57% (2)29.1171.45.932 (10).37 (2)3.69 (4)78% (32)6% (3)1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Offense1253% (35)48% (14)21.834.5265.97.712.223 (51)13 (97).37 (35)1.5 (108)28% (14)33% (48).36 (63)9% (130)1.9 (108)
ORE Defense1459% (132)39% (27) - - - - - - 11 (53).16 (16)1.5 (45)32% (70)30% (60).33 (78)8% (13)2 (45)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Defense1249% (69)45% (110) - - - - - - 7 (111).28 (76)1.5 (21)31% (78)34% (114).3 (63)6% (62)1.8 (7)
ORE Offense1456% (22)57% (1)2633.7318.39.412.244 (1)5 (6).59 (3)1.5 (112)24% (3)43% (3).73 (2)3% (4)2 (70)

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 6.78 #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87 #72
2024 Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 6.78   Oregon: 28.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 9.6   Oregon: 26.0




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.2 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 1068.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.3
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.5

Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 37
Illinois 17

Projected Total Points: 52
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Oregon38Illinois9OregonOregon -22.5Oregon54.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon110 Overs
Illinois001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#39) Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.78 #39
Offense Rating: 22.25 #47
Defense Rating: 9.87 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Illinois     Ratings Matchup     Oregon
Power #39
#2
Off #47
#4
Def #72
#19
Talent #65
#4
SP+ #31
#3
SP+ Off #55
#2
SP+ Def #26
#14

Rematch from Week 9
Oregon -22.5 (54.0)
Oregon won vs Illinois this year (38-9)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Illinois last year (38-9)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 76° - Wind: 9 mph


Team Information
Injuries: ILL | ORE
Depth Chart: ILL | ORE
Rosters: ILL | ORE
(#2) Oregon Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 28.2 #2
Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14
Talent Rating: 1068.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.68 PPO
Great Run Success 51%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Oregon Notes
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart


  
Illinois's OC Barry Lunney Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer21134761%27172267.8
Donovan Leary2540%29005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua McCray117609105.260
Aidan Laughery9758946.164
Kaden Feagin6730634.634
Luke Altmyer9921742.237
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Zakhari Franklin (Tr)56658411.844
Hank Beatty20294114.759
Collin Dixon18264014.741
Joshua McCray1311618.930

View Illinois's Full Roster
Illinois's DC Aaron Henry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey942005
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dylan Rosiek613201
Miles Scott540004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dennis Briggs Jr. (Tr)425450
Alec Bryant222212
Malachi Hood142201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Scott492106
Matthew Bailey942005
Jaheim Clarke341015

Oregon's OC Will Stein
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)32644773%38573068.6
Dante Moore (Tr)7888%49006.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington11854064.628
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)7514972.054
Da'Jaun Riggs118217.524
Jayden Limar257102.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Stewart (Tr)48613512.869
Kenyon Sadiq24308212.839
Justius Lowe2120319.734
Noah Whittington2413625.718

View Oregon's Full Roster
Oregon's DC Tosh Lupoi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher877204
Kobe Savage (Tr)573001
Teitum Tuioti538631
Derrick Harmon (Tr)43115102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matayo Uiagalelei3711961
Teitum Tuioti538631
Derrick Harmon (Tr)43115102
Bryce Boettcher877204
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)3810010
Brandon Johnson (Tr)425115
Bryce Boettcher877204