Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini(#9)
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (2:30 PM EST)
Illinois -2 (47.5) (-122) Open: -3.5
Illinois 38 - Michigan State: 16 (Big Ten)
Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
MSU coming off BYE
ILL coming off BYE
Our Line: Illinois -14 (SP+ ILL -14)
Projected Score: MSU: 17 - ILL: 31 (48)
ILL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
MSU Travel: 266 miles, 1 hrs ahead
ILL coming off BYE
Our Line: Illinois -14 (SP+ ILL -14)
Projected Score: MSU: 17 - ILL: 31 (48)
ILL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
MSU Travel: 266 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
| Michigan State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Fri 8/30 | Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic | -12.0 | 45.0 | W 16 - 10 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Michigan State at Maryland | +7.5 | 44.5 | W 27 - 24 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M | -42.5 | 53.5 | W 40 - 0 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Michigan State at Boston College | +4.5 | 45.5 | L 19 - 23 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Michigan State vs Ohio State | +23.5 | 48.5 | L 7 - 38 | U | N | |
| Fri 10/4 | Michigan State at Oregon | +22.5 | 53.0 | L 10 - 31 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Michigan State vs Iowa | +7.0 | 39.5 | W 32 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Michigan State at Michigan | +3.5 | 39.0 | L 17 - 24 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Michigan State vs Indiana | +7.5 | 53.5 | L 10 - 47 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Michigan State at Illinois | +2.0 | 47.5 | L 16 - 38 | O | N | |
| Fri 11/22 | Michigan State vs Purdue | -14.0 | 49.0 | W 24 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/30 | Michigan State vs Rutgers | -1.5 | 46.5 | L 14 - 41 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| Illinois's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | Illinois vs Eastern Illinois | -28.5 | 50.5 | W 45 - 0 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Illinois vs Kansas | +4.5 | 58.5 | W 23 - 17 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | Illinois vs Central Michigan | -21.5 | 49.5 | W 30 - 9 | U | N | |
| Fri 9/20 | Illinois at Nebraska | +9.5 | 41.5 | W 31 - 24 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Illinois at Penn State | +19.5 | 48.0 | L 7 - 21 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Illinois vs Purdue | -22.5 | 47.5 | W 50 - 49 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Illinois vs Michigan | +6.0 | 44.0 | W 21 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Illinois at Oregon | +22.5 | 54.0 | L 9 - 38 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Illinois vs Minnesota | +2.5 | 47.0 | L 17 - 25 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Illinois vs Michigan State | -2.0 | 47.5 | W 38 - 16 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Illinois at Rutgers | +2.0 | 48.0 | W 38 - 31 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Illinois vs Northwestern | -8.5 | 42.5 | W 38 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Tue 12/31 | Illinois vs South Carolina | +9.5 | 50.0 | W 21 - 17 | U | Y | |
Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | #105 (.13) | 42% (86) | 19.3 | 45% (50) | 2.76 (109) | 118 | 38% (107) | 218 | 3.34 (116) | #85 (.19) | 42% (69) | 26.1 | 39% (25) | 45% (111) | 4.06 (98) | 63.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| ILL | #31 (.25) | 45% (45) | 28.3 | 45% (51) | 3.14 (49) | 140 | 44% (44) | 198 | 4.23 (39) | #76 (.18) | 46% (115) | 21.7 | 50% (127) | 43% (90) | 3.48 (37) | 39 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | #105 (.13) | 42% (86) | 45% (50) | 2.76 (109) | 118 | 38% (107) | 218 | 3.34 (116) | #85 (.19) | 42% (69) | 39% (25) | 45% (111) | 4.06 (98) | 63.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | ||
| ILL | #31 (.25) | 45% (45) | 45% (51) | 3.14 (49) | 140 | 44% (44) | 198 | 4.23 (39) | #76 (.18) | 46% (115) | 50% (127) | 43% (90) | 3.48 (37) | 39 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU Offense | 12 | 19.3 | 17.8 | 41.6% | 3.34 | 1.6 | 19 | 337 | 118 | 218 | 3.7 | 50% | 50% | 45% | 38% | 18% | .13 |
| ILL Defense | 13 | 21.7 | 17.6 | 46.3% | 3.48 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - | 48% | 52% | 50% | 43% | 13% | .18 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU Defense | 12 | 26.1 | 28 | 41.7% | 4.06 | 0.9 | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | 50% | 39% | 45% | 14% | .19 |
| ILL Offense | 13 | 28.3 | 32 | 44.6% | 4.23 | 0.9 | 19 | 338 | 140 | 198 | 4.4 | 53% | 47% | 45% | 44% | 18% | .25 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 12 | 30:54 | 18.8 | 38% | 52% | 6.7 | 63.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 26.3 |
| Illinois | 13 | 26:52 | 18.7 | 44% | 50% | 5.1 | 39 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1 | 30.2 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU Offense | 12 | 50% (74) | 45% (50) | 32.4 | 118.4 | 3.7 | 11 (116) | .02 (116) | 2.76 (109) | 74% (66) | 12% (112) | 0.82 (126) |
| ILL Defense | 13 | 48% (37) | 50% (127) | - | - | - | - | .19 (108) | 3.57 (132) | 75% (75) | 8% (120) | 0.8 (5) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU Defense | 12 | 50% (56) | 39% (25) | - | - | - | - | .06 (36) | 2.8 (37) | 67% (29) | 10% (64) | 1.01 (80) |
| ILL Offense | 13 | 53% (50) | 45% (51) | 31.8 | 140 | 4.4 | 20 (67) | .13 (67) | 3.14 (49) | 81% (17) | 11% (107) | 0.91 (95) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU Offense | 12 | 50% (61) | 38% (107) | 17.7 | 29.5 | 218.1 | 7.4 | 12.3 | 13 (116) | 13 (103) | .24 (79) | 1.6 (57) | 33% (106) | 25% (122) | .18 (113) | 6% (63) | 2 (80) |
| ILL Defense | 13 | 52% (95) | 43% (90) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12 (39) | .19 (44) | 1.4 (17) | 28% (117) | 34% (111) | .37 (97) | 6% (84) | 1.9 (40) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU Defense | 12 | 50% (79) | 45% (111) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9 (76) | .34 (111) | 1.7 (101) | 32% (70) | 35% (118) | .43 (111) | 4% (121) | 2.1 (74) |
| ILL Offense | 13 | 47% (83) | 44% (44) | 15.4 | 25.5 | 197.8 | 7.8 | 12.9 | 21 (51) | 5 (6) | .38 (16) | 1.8 (15) | 31% (62) | 31% (81) | .42 (31) | 6% (82) | 2.3 (5) |
Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -2.31 Illinois: 10.69
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6 Illinois: 9.6
Michigan State: -2.31 Illinois: 10.69
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6 Illinois: 9.6
Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 10.69 #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87 #72
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Illinois's Power Rating: 10.69 #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87 #72
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28
Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28
Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 31
Michigan State 17
Total Points: 48
Illinois 31
Michigan State 17
Total Points: 48
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6
Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6
Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/16 | Illinois | 38 | Michigan State | 16 | Illinois | Illinois -2 | Illinois | 47.5 | Over |
| 2022 | 11/05 | Illinois | 15 | Michigan State | 23 | Michigan State | Illinois -16.5 | Michigan State | 41.0 | Under |
| 2019 | 11/09 | Michigan State | 34 | Illinois | 37 | Illinois | Michigan State -15.5 | Illinois | 48.0 | Over |
| 2016 | 11/05 | Illinois | 31 | Michigan State | 27 | Illinois | Michigan State -7 | Illinois | 47.5 | Over |
| 2013 | 10/26 | Illinois | 3 | Michigan State | 42 | Michigan State | Michigan State -13 | Michigan State | 0 | |
| 2010 | 10/16 | Michigan State | 26 | Illinois | 6 | Michigan State | ||||
| 2009 | 10/10 | Illinois | 14 | Michigan State | 24 | Michigan State | ||||
| 2006 | 09/30 | Michigan State | 20 | Illinois | 23 | Illinois | ||||
| 2005 | 09/24 | Illinois | 14 | Michigan State | 61 | Michigan State | ||||
| 2004 | 10/09 | Michigan State | 38 | Illinois | 25 | Michigan State | ||||
| 2003 | 10/11 | Illinois | 14 | Michigan State | 49 | Michigan State | ||||
| 2000 | 10/27 | Michigan State | 14 | Illinois | 10 | Michigan State |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 4 | 3 | 3 Overs |
| Michigan State | 8 | 2 | 1 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 5 - 7 | 2 - 3 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 1 |
| Road Teams | 7 - 5 | 3 - 2 | 1 - 1 | 2 - 1 |
(#70) Michigan State Info
Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Michigan State has lost 2 straight
Michigan State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )
Michigan State Notes
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
Michigan State Highlights
Michigan State has a good run defense (#33)
Michigan State Deficiencies
Michigan State has a really bad Offense
Michigan State Can Not Run the Ball (#59)
Michigan State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Michigan State offense is not Explosive (#95)
Michigan State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#127)
Michigan State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#56)
Michigan State pass game is really bad (#77)
Michigan State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#31)
Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Michigan State has lost 2 straight
Michigan State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )
Michigan State Notes
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
Michigan State Highlights
Michigan State has a good run defense (#33)
Michigan State Deficiencies
Michigan State has a really bad Offense
Michigan State Can Not Run the Ball (#59)
Michigan State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Michigan State offense is not Explosive (#95)
Michigan State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#127)
Michigan State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#56)
Michigan State pass game is really bad (#77)
Michigan State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#31)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | ILL | MSU |
| OverallOver | #29 | #76 |
| OffenseOff | #34 | #84 |
| DefenseDef | #37 | #84 |
| Special TeamsST | #41 | #99 |
| PassingPass | #33 | #84 |
| RushingRush | #32 | #21 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #54 | #87 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #74 | #109 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #11 | #49 |
| TacklingTkl | #6 | #28 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #79 | #22 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #45 | #106 |
| Coverage DefCov | #18 | #103 |
Rematch from Week 12
Illinois -2.0 (47.5)
Illinois won vs Michigan State this year (38-16)
Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Michigan State last year (38-16)
Michigan State beat Illinois in 2022 (23-15)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: MSU | ILL
Depth Chart: MSU | ILL
Rosters: MSU | ILL
(#39) Illinois Info
Power Rating: 10.69 #39
Offense Rating: 22.25 #47
Defense Rating: 9.87 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Illinois has lost 2 straight
Illinois has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)
Illinois Highlights
Illinois does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#80)
Illinois defense does not give up big plays (#53)
Illinois has a great TO Margin (#1)
Illinois Deficiencies
Illinois has a bad defense (#56)
Illinois Does Not Stuff Runs (#6)
Illinois has a bad defensive line (#49)
Power Rating: 10.69 #39
Offense Rating: 22.25 #47
Defense Rating: 9.87 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Illinois has lost 2 straight
Illinois has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)
Illinois Highlights
Illinois does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#80)
Illinois defense does not give up big plays (#53)
Illinois has a great TO Margin (#1)
Illinois Deficiencies
Illinois has a bad defense (#56)
Illinois Does Not Stuff Runs (#6)
Illinois has a bad defensive line (#49)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Chiles (Tr) | 192 | 324 | 59% | 2415 | 13 | 12 | 7.5 |
| Tommy Schuster (Tr) | 20 | 29 | 69% | 202 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kay'Ron Adams | 133 | 649 | 2 | 4.9 | 63 |
| Nathan Carter | 116 | 499 | 5 | 4.3 | 60 |
| Aidan Chiles (Tr) | 96 | 234 | 3 | 2.4 | 26 |
| Nick Marsh | 4 | 23 | 0 | 5.8 | 11 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Marsh | 41 | 649 | 3 | 15.8 | 77 |
| Montorie Foster | 46 | 588 | 3 | 12.8 | 40 |
| Jack Velling (Tr) | 36 | 411 | 1 | 11.4 | 34 |
| Aziah Johnson | 16 | 276 | 2 | 17.3 | 52 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Turner (Tr) | 66 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Cal Haladay | 58 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nikai Martinez (Tr) | 51 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Angelo Grose | 50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khris Bogle | 37 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Turner (Tr) | 66 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Anthony Jones (Tr) | 25 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ken Talley | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Brantley | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Edward Woods | 49 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Jordan Hall | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Altmyer | 211 | 347 | 61% | 2717 | 22 | 6 | 7.8 |
| Donovan Leary | 2 | 5 | 40% | 29 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua McCray | 117 | 609 | 10 | 5.2 | 60 |
| Aidan Laughery | 97 | 589 | 4 | 6.1 | 64 |
| Kaden Feagin | 67 | 306 | 3 | 4.6 | 34 |
| Luke Altmyer | 99 | 217 | 4 | 2.2 | 37 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Bryant | 53 | 978 | 10 | 18.5 | 64 |
| Zakhari Franklin (Tr) | 56 | 658 | 4 | 11.8 | 44 |
| Hank Beatty | 20 | 294 | 1 | 14.7 | 59 |
| Collin Dixon | 18 | 264 | 0 | 14.7 | 41 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Bailey | 94 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Gabe Jacas | 71 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Dylan Rosiek | 61 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| James Kreutz | 54 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Jacas | 71 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Dennis Briggs Jr. (Tr) | 42 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Te-Rah Edwards | 38 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Seth Coleman | 53 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Scott | 49 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Matthew Bailey | 94 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Jaheim Clarke | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |