Michigan State at Illinois - 2024 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo   Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini  Illinois logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (2:30 PM EST)
Illinois -2 (47.5) (-122)  Open: -3.5
Illinois 38 - Michigan State: 16  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSU coming off BYE
ILL coming off BYE
Our Line: Illinois -14  (SP+ ILL -14)

Projected Score: MSU: 18 - ILL: 32 (50)
ILL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
MSU Travel: 266 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.045.0W 16 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan State at Maryland+7.544.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/14 Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.553.5W 40 - 0UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan State at Boston College+4.545.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/28 Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.548.5L 7 - 38UN
Fri 10/4 Michigan State at Oregon+22.553.0L 10 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan State vs Iowa+7.039.5W 32 - 20OY
Sat 10/26 Michigan State at Michigan+3.539.0L 17 - 24ON
Sat 11/2 Michigan State vs Indiana+7.553.5L 10 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Michigan State at Illinois+2.047.5L 16 - 38ON
Fri 11/22 Michigan State vs Purdue-14.049.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.546.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.550.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Illinois vs Kansas+4.558.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 9/14 Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.549.5W 30 - 9UN
Fri 9/20 Illinois at Nebraska+9.541.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Illinois at Penn State+19.548.0L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Illinois vs Purdue-22.547.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 10/19 Illinois vs Michigan+6.044.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 Illinois at Oregon+22.554.0L 9 - 38UN
Sat 11/2 Illinois vs Minnesota+2.547.0L 17 - 25UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Illinois vs Michigan State-2.047.5W 38 - 16OY
Sat 11/23 Illinois at Rutgers+2.048.0W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/30 Illinois vs Northwestern-8.542.5W 38 - 28OY
Tue 12/31 Illinois vs South Carolina+9.550.0W 21 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#131 (.03)38% (115)24.638% (122)2.84 (114)8938% (99)1972.97 (125)#75 (.19)44% (95)29.945% (85)44% (105)3.89 (76)591.81.3
ILL#66 (.2)45% (30)29.444% (56)3.31 (32)12548% (14)2663.9 (71)#85 (.2)44% (102)23.645% (87)45% (110)4.09 (96)62.41.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1224.621.637.6%2.971.817286891972.945%54%38%38%19%.03
ILL Defense1223.614.444.4%4.091.3 - - - - - 51%49%45%45%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1229.932.843.9%3.891.3 - - - - - 48%51%45%44%16%.19
ILL Offense1229.431.345.5%3.91.9203911252663.845%53%44%48%20%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1228:0516.530%50%6.8591.81.35.62.5027.6
Illinois1228:2420.337%54%6.662.41.91.34.81.9226
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1245% (104)38% (122)30.988.72.97 (131)-.03 (131)2.84 (114)76% (50)12% (119)0.85 (124)
ILL Defense1251% (75)45% (87) - - - - .15 (78)3.27 (104)73% (68)9% (100)0.89 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1248% (48)45% (85) - - - - .16 (83)3.28 (106)87% (128)10% (72)0.93 (35)
ILL Offense1245% (103)44% (56)33125.13.812 (116).07 (108)3.31 (32)67% (109)12% (98)0.84 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1254% (33)38% (99)18.531.8197.26.210.714 (106)13 (97).17 (101)1.4 (121)35% (113)26% (107).16 (115)7% (105)2 (97)
ILL Defense1249% (69)45% (110) - - - - - - 7 (111).28 (76)1.5 (21)31% (78)34% (114).3 (63)6% (62)1.8 (7)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1251% (85)44% (105) - - - - - - 9 (87).28 (78)1.5 (26)29% (116)32% (92).36 (92)6% (66)2 (58)
ILL Offense1253% (35)48% (14)21.834.5265.97.712.223 (51)13 (97).37 (35)1.5 (108)28% (14)33% (48).36 (63)9% (130)1.9 (108)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31  #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47  #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30  #75
2024 Talent Rating: 407.00  #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15%  #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6  #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0  #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1  #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -2.31   Illinois: 10.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6   Illinois: 9.6




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 10.69  #39
Illinois's Offense Rating: 22.25  #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 9.87  #72
2024 Talent Rating: 328.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #48
Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #55
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 32
Michigan State 18


Projected Total Points: 50
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Illinois38Michigan State16Illinois -2Illinois47.5Over
202211/05Illinois15Michigan State23Illinois -16.5Michigan State41.0Under
201911/09Michigan State34Illinois37Michigan State -15.5Illinois48.0Over
201611/05Illinois31Michigan State27Michigan State -7Illinois47.5Over
201310/26Illinois3Michigan State42Michigan State -13Michigan State0
201010/16Michigan State26Illinois6
200910/10Illinois14Michigan State24
200609/30Michigan State20Illinois23
200509/24Illinois14Michigan State61
200410/09Michigan State38Illinois25
200310/11Illinois14Michigan State49
200010/27Michigan State14Illinois10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois433 Overs
Michigan State821 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 72 - 31 - 21 - 1
Road Teams7 - 53 - 21 - 12 - 1

(#70) MSU at (#39) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUILL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #70 #39
SP+SP+ #90 #31
Perf GradeGrade #107 #38
OffenseOff #105 #38
DefenseDef #104 #50
Spec TeamsST #122 #47
TalentTal #34 #65
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #48
Michigan State Notes
(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MSU OffILL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #105 #50
SuccessSuc #115 #102
ExplosiveExp #119 #14
PPAPPA #131 #85
PowerPwr #101 #72
SP+SP+ #119 #26
Pts POPPO #125 #96
HavocHav #115 #87
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MSU OffILL Def
Run GameRun #31 #102
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #87
Run ExplRExp #124 #22
PPAExp #131 #78
Run BlockR Blk #112 -
OL YdsOLY #114 #104
Stuff RateStuff #103 #83
TackleTak -  #7
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MSU OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #107 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #99 #110
Pass ExplPExl #121 #21
PPAExp #101 #76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #126 #50
F7 HavocF7 #119 #100
DB HavocDB #105 #62
Illinois on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatILL OffMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #38 #104
SuccessSuc #30 #95
ExplosiveExp #113 #24
PPAPPA #66 #75
PowerPwr #47 #75
SP+SP+ #55 #49
Pts POPPO #71 #76
HavocHav #124 #68
Illinois Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ILL OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #47 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #85
Run ExplRExp #125 #35
PPAExp #108 #83
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #106
Stuff RateStuff #23 #111
TackleTak -  #31
Illinois Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatILL OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #40 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #105
Pass ExplPExl #108 #26
PPAExp #35 #78
Pass Block/RushP Blk #87 #127
F7 HavocF7 #98 #72
DB HavocDB #130 #66
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Illinois -2.0 (47.5)
Illinois won vs Michigan State this year (38-16)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Michigan State in 2024 (38-16)

  
MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)19232459%241513127.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)202969%202007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams13364924.963
Nathan Carter11649954.360
Aidan Chiles (Tr)9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Montorie Foster46588312.840
Jack Velling (Tr)36411111.434
Aziah Johnson16276217.352

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Cal Haladay585101
Nikai Martinez (Tr)513012
Angelo Grose504102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khris Bogle378460
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Anthony Jones (Tr)254250
Ken Talley62220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Brantley272007
Edward Woods494123
Jordan Hall241012

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer21134761%27172267.8
Donovan Leary2540%29005.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua McCray117609105.260
Aidan Laughery9758946.164
Kaden Feagin6730634.634
Luke Altmyer9921742.237
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Patrick Bryant539781018.564
Zakhari Franklin (Tr)56658411.844
Hank Beatty20294114.759
Collin Dixon18264014.741

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey942005
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dylan Rosiek613201
James Kreutz541021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas7113890
Dennis Briggs Jr. (Tr)425450
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Seth Coleman537353
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Scott492106
Matthew Bailey942005
Jaheim Clarke341015