Michigan State at Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines(#21)Michigan logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Michigan -3.5 (39.0) (-155)  Open: -22.0
Michigan 24 - Michigan State: 17  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Michigan -14   (SP+ MICH -15)
Projected Score: MSU: 14 - MICH: 28 (43)
MICH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 49 miles
Wolverines (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (27 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.045.0W 16 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan State at Maryland+7.544.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/14 Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.553.5W 40 - 0UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan State at Boston College+4.545.5L 19 - 23UY
Sat 9/28 Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.548.5L 7 - 38UN
Fri 10/4 Michigan State at Oregon+22.553.0L 10 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan State vs Iowa+7.039.5W 32 - 20OY
Sat 10/26 Michigan State at Michigan+3.539.0L 17 - 24ON
Sat 11/2 Michigan State vs Indiana+7.553.5L 10 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Michigan State at Illinois+2.047.5L 16 - 38ON
Fri 11/22 Michigan State vs Purdue-14.049.0W 24 - 17UN
Sat 11/30 Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.546.5L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Michigan vs Fresno State-21.048.0W 30 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan vs Texas+7.042.0L 12 - 31ON
Sat 9/14 Michigan vs Arkansas State-22.047.5W 28 - 18UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan vs USC+4.044.0W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Michigan vs Minnesota-10.534.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/5 Michigan at Washington+1.539.5L 17 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan at Illinois-6.044.0L 7 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Michigan vs Michigan State-3.539.0W 24 - 17OY
Sat 11/2 Michigan vs Oregon+14.545.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Michigan at Indiana+14.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.535.5W 50 - 6OY
Sat 11/30 Michigan at Ohio State+20.541.5W 13 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Michigan vs Alabama+16.545.5W 19 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)19.345% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)26.139% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)2241% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)19.938% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1219.317.841.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13
MICH Defense1319.92138.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1226.12841.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
MICH Offense132226.940.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -2.31   Michigan: 10.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6   Michigan: 10.6




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 28
Michigan State 14


Total Points: 43

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Michigan24Michigan State17MichiganMichigan -3.5Michigan39.0Over
202310/21Michigan State0Michigan49MichiganMichigan -25.5Michigan47.0Over
202210/29Michigan29Michigan State7MichiganMichigan -22Push55.0Under
202110/30Michigan State37Michigan33Michigan StateMichigan -4Michigan State50.5Over
202010/31Michigan24Michigan State27Michigan StateMichigan -25.0Michigan State0
201911/16Michigan44Michigan State10MichiganMichigan -13.5Michigan43.5Over
201810/20Michigan State7Michigan21MichiganMichigan -7.5Michigan38.5Under
201710/07Michigan10Michigan State14Michigan StateMichigan -12.5Michigan State40.0Under
201610/29Michigan State23Michigan32MichiganMichigan -21Michigan State49.5Over
201510/17Michigan23Michigan State27Michigan StateMichigan -7Michigan State42.5Over
201410/25Michigan State35Michigan11Michigan StateMichigan State -15.5Michigan State0
201311/02Michigan State29Michigan6Michigan StateMichigan State -3.5Michigan State0
201210/20Michigan12Michigan State10Michigan
201110/15Michigan State28Michigan14Michigan State
201010/09Michigan17Michigan State34Michigan State
200910/03Michigan State26Michigan20Michigan State
200810/25Michigan21Michigan State35Michigan State
200711/03Michigan State24Michigan28Michigan
200610/07Michigan31Michigan State13Michigan
200510/01Michigan State31Michigan34Michigan
200410/30Michigan45Michigan State37Michigan
200311/01Michigan State20Michigan27Michigan
200211/02Michigan49Michigan State3Michigan
200111/03Michigan State26Michigan24Michigan State
200010/20Michigan14Michigan State0Michigan
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan1446 Overs
Michigan State1173 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 116 - 54 - 32 - 2
Road Teams11 - 145 - 62 - 23 - 4

(#70) Michigan State Info
Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Michigan State has won 1 straight
Michigan State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Michigan State Notes
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)

Michigan State Highlights
Michigan State has a good run defense (#33)

Michigan State Deficiencies
Michigan State has a really bad Offense
Michigan State Can Not Run the Ball (#59)
Michigan State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Michigan State offense is not Explosive (#95)
Michigan State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#127)
Michigan State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#56)
Michigan State pass game is really bad (#77)
Michigan State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#31)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMICHMSU
OverallOver#17#76
OffenseOff#80#84
DefenseDef#5#84
Special TeamsST#34#99
PassingPass#100#84
RushingRush#41#21
Run BlockRBLK#55#87
Pass BlockPBLK#77#109
Route RunningWR Rt#82#49
TacklingTkl#9#28
Run DefenseR Def#2#22
Pass Rush DefPRush#1#106
Coverage DefCov#57#103

Rematch from Week 9
Michigan -3.5 (39.0)
Michigan won vs Michigan State this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Michigan State last year (24-17)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2023 (49-0)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2022 (29-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | MICH
Depth Chart: MSU | MICH
Rosters: MSU | MICH
(#43) Michigan Info
Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.18 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Michigan has lost 2 straight
Michigan has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 2 (3 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Michigan Notes
(12/11) Hired OC Chip Lindsey? (NC, UCF, Troy HC)
(12/3) Fired OC Kirk Campbell after the season
(12/1) Beat OSU again, Rgame tough, Def incredible
(11/13) Great 2nd H vs IU, nearly won. Off just sucks
(10/28) QB Tuttle retired after 5th concussion
(10/20) Star CB Johnson left Ill game (inj)
(10/19) Off gained yds but 3 TOs killed em. Bad team
(10/14) Replaced LT (worst PFF graded LT), shuffling OL
(10/10) Staff needs changing. DC Wink has to go
(10/6) QB Tuttle healthy, playing. Didn't matter vs UW

Michigan Highlights
Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#16)

Michigan has a really good defense (#65)
Michigan has a good run defense (#59)
Michigan Defensive Line is very good (#68)
Michigan Secondary is very good (#34)
Michigan commits very few Penalties (#49)

Michigan Deficiencies
Michigan offense is really bad (#99)
Michigan offense is not Explosive (#10)
Michigan run game is really bad (#103)


  
Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)19232459%241513127.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)202969%202007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams13364924.963
Nathan Carter11649954.360
Aidan Chiles (Tr)9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Montorie Foster46588312.840
Jack Velling (Tr)36411111.434
Aziah Johnson16276217.352

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Cal Haladay585101
Nikai Martinez (Tr)513012
Angelo Grose504102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khris Bogle378460
Jordan Turner (Tr)6611341
Anthony Jones (Tr)254250
Ken Talley62220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Brantley272007
Edward Woods494123
Jordan Hall241012

Michigan's OC Kirk Campbell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Davis Warren13320764%1198795.8
Jack Tuttle305060%306126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kalel Mullings185948125.163
Donovan Edwards12858944.641
Alex Orji5726914.729
Jordan Marshall3112003.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Colston Loveland56582510.436
Tyler Morris23248210.828
Semaj Morgan2713915.131
Fredrick Moore11128111.620

View Michigan's Full Roster
Michigan's DC Don Martindale
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann897221
Jaishawn Barham (Tr)664152
Mason Graham467431
Makari Paige451004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josaiah Stewart3313970
TJ Guy327660
Derrick Moore236442
Mason Graham467431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry373029
Jyaire Hill356108
Quinten Johnson431005