Michigan State at Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines(#25)

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Michigan -3.5 (39.0) (-155) Open: -22.0
Michigan 24 - Michigan State: 17 (Big Ten)

Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Michigan -14 (SP+ MICH -15)
Projected Score: MSU: 14 - MICH: 28 (43)
MICH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 49 miles

Wolverines (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (27 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
MICH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic	-12.0	45.0	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	44.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	53.5	W 40 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Boston College	+4.5	45.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	48.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/4	Michigan State at Oregon	+22.5	53.0	L 10 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan State vs Iowa	+7.0	39.5	W 32 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Michigan State at Michigan	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/2	Michigan State vs Indiana	+7.5	53.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Illinois	+2.0	47.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/22	Michigan State vs Purdue	-14.0	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-1.5	46.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Michigan's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Michigan vs Fresno State	-21.0	48.0	W 30 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan vs Texas	+7.0	42.0	L 12 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/14	Michigan vs Arkansas State	-22.0	47.5	W 28 - 18	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan vs USC	+4.0	44.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan vs Minnesota	-10.5	34.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/5	Michigan at Washington	+1.5	39.5	L 17 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan at Illinois	-6.0	44.0	L 7 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Michigan vs Michigan State	-3.5	39.0	W 24 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Michigan vs Oregon	+14.5	45.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Michigan at Indiana	+14.5	47.5	L 15 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Michigan vs Northwestern	-10.5	35.5	W 50 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Michigan at Ohio State	+20.5	41.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Michigan vs Alabama	+16.5	45.5	W 19 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)	19.3	45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)	26.1	39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
MICH	#113 (.1)	40% (102)	22	41% (101)	3 (80)	149	40% (92)	123	4.18 (45)	#40 (.13)	38% (28)	19.9	38% (18)	39% (42)	3.48 (36)	36.8	1.5	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9
MICH	#113 (.1)	40% (102)		41% (101)	3 (80)	149	40% (92)	123	4.18 (45)	#40 (.13)	38% (28)		38% (18)	39% (42)	3.48 (36)	36.8	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	19.3	17.8	41.6%	3.34	1.6	19	337	118	218	3.7	50%	50%	45%	38%	18%	.13
MICH Defense	13	19.9	21	38.3%	3.48	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	38%	39%	19%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	26.1	28	41.7%	4.06	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	45%	14%	.19
MICH Offense	13	22	26.9	40.1%	4.18	1.5	15	272	149	123	4.5	60%	39%	41%	40%	15%	.1

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	30:54	18.8	38%	52%	6.7	63.3	1.6	0.9	5.5	1.6	1	26.3
Michigan	13	28:57	15.2	43%	71%	3.7	36.8	1.5	1.2	5.6	2.4	2	30

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	50% (74)	45% (50)	32.4	118.4	3.7	11 (116)	.02 (116)	2.76 (109)	74% (66)	12% (112)	0.82 (126)
MICH Defense	13	42% (1)	38% (18)	-	-	-	-	.04 (24)	2.72 (24)	82% (120)	11% (50)	0.85 (11)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	50% (56)	39% (25)	-	-	-	-	.06 (36)	2.8 (37)	67% (29)	10% (64)	1.01 (80)
MICH Offense	13	60% (9)	41% (101)	33.3	148.5	4.5	18 (78)	.1 (86)	3 (80)	84% (7)	10% (73)	0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	50% (61)	38% (107)	17.7	29.5	218.1	7.4	12.3	13 (116)	13 (103)	.24 (79)	1.6 (57)	33% (106)	25% (122)	.18 (113)	6% (63)	2 (80)
MICH Defense	13	57% (134)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (56)	1.6 (71)	36% (12)	28% (28)	.27 (54)	8% (10)	2.2 (109)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	50% (79)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.34 (111)	1.7 (101)	32% (70)	35% (118)	.43 (111)	4% (121)	2.1 (74)
MICH Offense	13	39% (126)	40% (92)	13.8	22.5	123.3	5.5	9	11 (122)	12 (85)	.12 (119)	1.4 (131)	33% (90)	30% (92)	.26 (96)	5% (51)	1.7 (133)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -2.31 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -2.31 Michigan: 10.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -4.6 Michigan: 10.6

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 28
Michigan State 14

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan 25
Michigan State 20

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Michigan 26
Michigan State 20

Total Points: 46

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Michigan State	20	Michigan	31	Michigan -13.5	Michigan State	47.5	Over
2024	10/26	Michigan	24	Michigan State	17	Michigan -3.5	Michigan	39.0	Over
2023	10/21	Michigan State	0	Michigan	49	Michigan -25.5	Michigan	47.0	Over
2022	10/29	Michigan	29	Michigan State	7	Michigan -22	Push	55.0	Under
2021	10/30	Michigan State	37	Michigan	33	Michigan -4	Michigan State	50.5	Over
2020	10/31	Michigan	24	Michigan State	27	Michigan -25.0	Michigan State	0
2019	11/16	Michigan	44	Michigan State	10	Michigan -13.5	Michigan	43.5	Over
2018	10/20	Michigan State	7	Michigan	21	Michigan -7.5	Michigan	38.5	Under
2017	10/07	Michigan	10	Michigan State	14	Michigan -12.5	Michigan State	40.0	Under
2016	10/29	Michigan State	23	Michigan	32	Michigan -21	Michigan State	49.5	Over
2015	10/17	Michigan	23	Michigan State	27	Michigan -7	Michigan State	42.5	Over
2014	10/25	Michigan State	35	Michigan	11	Michigan State -15.5	Michigan State	0
2013	11/02	Michigan State	29	Michigan	6	Michigan State -3.5	Michigan State	0
2012	10/20	Michigan	12	Michigan State	10
2011	10/15	Michigan State	28	Michigan	14
2010	10/09	Michigan	17	Michigan State	34
2009	10/03	Michigan State	26	Michigan	20
2008	10/25	Michigan	21	Michigan State	35
2007	11/03	Michigan State	24	Michigan	28
2006	10/07	Michigan	31	Michigan State	13
2005	10/01	Michigan State	31	Michigan	34
2004	10/30	Michigan	45	Michigan State	37
2003	11/01	Michigan State	20	Michigan	27
2002	11/02	Michigan	49	Michigan State	3
2001	11/03	Michigan State	26	Michigan	24
2000	10/20	Michigan	14	Michigan State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan	15	4	7 Overs
Michigan State	11	8	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 12	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 14	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#70) MSU at (#43) MICH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	MICH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#70	#43
SP+SP+	#90	#26
Perf GradeGrade	#107	#21
OffenseOff	#105	#101
DefenseDef	#104	#7
Spec TeamsST	#122	#38
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#31	#16

Michigan State Notes(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report

Michigan Notes(12/24) Signed QB Keene (Fresno) w Underwood
(12/11) Hired OC Chip Lindsey? (NC, UCF, Troy HC)
(12/3) Fired OC Kirk Campbell after the season
(12/1) Beat OSU again, Rgame tough, Def incredible
(11/13) Great 2nd H vs IU, nearly won. Off just sucks
(10/28) QB Tuttle retired after 5th concussion
(10/20) Star CB Johnson left Ill game (inj)
(10/19) Off gained yds but 3 TOs killed em. Bad team
(10/14) Replaced LT (worst PFF graded LT), shuffling OL
(10/10) Staff needs changing. DC Wink has to go
(10/6) QB Tuttle healthy, playing. Didn't matter vs UW
(9/21) Bully balled USC w/ a high school Off & great D
Michigan Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	MICH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#7
SuccessSuc	#86	#28
ExplosiveExp	#118	#73
PPAPPA	#105	#40
PowerPwr	#101	#51
SP+SP+	#119	#10
Pts POPPO	#116	#36
HavocHav	#98	#23

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#31	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#18
Run ExplRExp	#126	#11
PPAExp	#116	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#61
TackleTak	-	#10

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#107	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#71
PPAExp	#79	#56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#126	#1
F7 HavocF7	#112	#50
DB HavocDB	#63	#10

Michigan on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#104
SuccessSuc	#102	#69
ExplosiveExp	#133	#110
PPAPPA	#113	#85
PowerPwr	#116	#75
SP+SP+	#93	#49
Pts POPPO	#45	#98
HavocHav	#58	#93

Michigan Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#58	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#101	#25
Run ExplRExp	#91	#80
PPAExp	#86	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#33
TackleTak	-	#31

Michigan Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#125	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#92	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#101
PPAExp	#119	#111
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#127
F7 HavocF7	#73	#64
DB HavocDB	#51	#121

Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Declining CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Down to Average P4

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 38°

Rematch from Week 9
Michigan -3.5 (39.0)
Michigan won vs Michigan State this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Michigan State last year (24-17)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2023 (49-0)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2022 (29-7)

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)	20	29	69%	202	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Nathan Carter	116	499	5	4.3	60
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Jack Velling (Tr)	36	411	1	11.4	34
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Nikai Martinez (Tr)	51	3	0	1	2
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Anthony Jones (Tr)	25	4	2	5	0
Ken Talley	6	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Brantley	27	2	0	0	7
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Jordan Hall	24	1	0	1	2

MICH's OC Kirk Campbell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Davis Warren	133	207	64%	1198	7	9	5.8
Jack Tuttle	30	50	60%	306	1	2	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kalel Mullings	185	948	12	5.1	63
Donovan Edwards	128	589	4	4.6	41
Alex Orji	57	269	1	4.7	29
Jordan Marshall	31	120	0	3.9	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Colston Loveland	56	582	5	10.4	36
Tyler Morris	23	248	2	10.8	28
Semaj Morgan	27	139	1	5.1	31
Fredrick Moore	11	128	1	11.6	20

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ernest Hausmann	89	7	2	2	1
Jaishawn Barham (Tr)	66	4	1	5	2
Mason Graham	46	7	4	3	1
Makari Paige	45	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josaiah Stewart	33	13	9	7	0
TJ Guy	32	7	6	6	0
Derrick Moore	23	6	4	4	2
Mason Graham	46	7	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zeke Berry	37	3	0	2	9
Jyaire Hill	35	6	1	0	8
Quinten Johnson	43	1	0	0	5