Ohio at Buffalo - 2023 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 7th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Ohio -9.5 (45.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Ohio 20 - Buffalo: 10 (Mid-American)

Bobcats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (16 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 16 (21 - 14 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.8 - 3.2 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

OHIO coming off BYE
Our Line: Ohio -11 (SP+ OHIO -13)
Projected Score: OHIO: 28 - BUFF: 17 (44)
OHIO Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
OHIO Travel: 307 miles

Bulls (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Maurice Linguist (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (23 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OHIO Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Ohio at San Diego State	+2.0	48.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/2	Ohio vs Long Island University	-34.5	58.0	W 27 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Ohio at Florida Atlantic	+3.5	61.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ohio vs Iowa State	+1.5	42.0	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Ohio at Bowling Green	-13.0	45.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Ohio vs Kent State	-24.5	45.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Ohio at Northern Illinois	-5.5	45.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/21	Ohio vs Western Michigan	-16.5	52.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/28	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-7.5	39.0	L 16 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/7	Ohio at Buffalo	-9.5	45.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/15	Ohio vs Central Michigan	-11.5	48.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Ohio at Akron	-13.5	41.5	W 25 - 14	U	N
Sat 12/16	Ohio vs Georgia Southern	+1.5	48.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Buffalo at Wisconsin	+29.0	52.5	L 17 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Buffalo vs Fordham	-23.5	55.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/16	Buffalo vs Liberty	+2.5	54.0	L 27 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/23	Buffalo at Louisiana	+10.5	57.5	L 38 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Buffalo at Akron	+3.0	53.0	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Buffalo vs Central Michigan	+2.5	51.5	W 37 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Buffalo vs Bowling Green	-3.0	44.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/21	Buffalo at Kent State	-6.5	44.0	W 24 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Buffalo at Toledo	+14.0	47.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Tue 11/7	Buffalo vs Ohio	+9.5	45.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Wed 11/15	Buffalo at Miami (OH)	+7.5	36.5	L 10 - 23	U	N
Tue 11/21	Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	38.5	L 11 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#76 (.18)	45% (33)	24.3	44% (61)	2.99 (90)	144	48% (17)	204	3.61 (92)	#3 (.02)	35% (8)	15.8	35% (9)	36% (12)	2.45 (2)	51.8	1	1.8
BUFF	#130 (.03)	37% (116)	20.9	43% (67)	2.93 (102)	134	32% (129)	185	3.54 (95)	#41 (.14)	39% (33)	27.4	37% (25)	42% (68)	3.55 (48)	41.6	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Offense	13	24.3	21	45.2%	3.61	1	21	348	144	204	3.9	52%	47%	44%	48%	15%	.18
BUFF Defense	12	27.4	29.3	38.7%	3.55	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	37%	42%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Defense	13	15.8	14	35%	2.45	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	35%	36%	21%	.02
BUFF Offense	12	20.9	22.7	37.4%	3.54	1.6	17	319	134	185	3.7	51%	48%	43%	32%	16%	.03

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio	13	33:23	20.8	46%	50%	5.6	51.8	1	1.8	7.4	2.8	1	31.2
Buffalo	12	30:32	17.2	34%	37%	4.8	41.6	1.6	1.6	5.7	1.4	2	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense	13	52% (46)	44% (61)	37.3	144.4	3.9	18 (77)	.1 (95)	2.99 (90)	73% (75)	9% (39)	0.81 (131)
BUFF Defense	12	56% (119)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	.15 (76)	2.82 (24)	65% (25)	12% (19)	1.25 (131)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense	13	44% (10)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (3)	2.54 (8)	70% (47)	15% (3)	1.07 (101)
BUFF Offense	12	51% (61)	43% (67)	36.3	133.6	3.7	15 (100)	.09 (102)	2.93 (102)	65% (119)	9% (40)	0.92 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense	13	47% (91)	48% (17)	18.4	29.5	203.6	6.9	11.1	16 (92)	9 (40)	.31 (57)	1.4 (123)	30% (31)	35% (30)	.32 (72)	6% (84)	1.7 (131)
BUFF Defense	12	43% (13)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (29)	1.4 (18)	35% (32)	28% (39)	.23 (30)	5% (95)	2 (54)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense	13	54% (123)	36% (12)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.14 (14)	1.5 (30)	36% (15)	23% (5)	.19 (15)	5% (94)	1.9 (27)
BUFF Offense	12	48% (77)	32% (129)	17.7	32.8	185.3	5.6	10.5	14 (106)	11 (68)	.04 (130)	1.5 (99)	32% (68)	26% (108)	.16 (116)	8% (119)	1.9 (109)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: 3.65 #42
Ohio's Offense Rating: 16.43 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: -0.96 #5
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Ohio's 2023 Expected Record: 9.80 - 3.20
Ohio's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #74
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #115
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6 #13

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: 3.65 Buffalo: -10.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -2.2 Buffalo: -15.1

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.165 #120
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.90 #125
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.32 #50
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Buffalo's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Buffalo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #117
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3 #125
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 15.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 14

Ohio's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio 28
Buffalo 17

Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Buffalo 23
Ohio 18

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
Ohio 26
Buffalo 18

Total Points: 44

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.7
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.3

Buffalo's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Buffalo	26	Ohio	31	Ohio -7.0	Buffalo	44.5	Over
2024	10/26	Ohio	47	Buffalo	16	Ohio -4.0	Ohio	46.5	Over
2023	11/07	Buffalo	10	Ohio	20	Ohio -9.5	Ohio	45.5	Under
2022	11/01	Ohio	45	Buffalo	24	Buffalo -2.5	Ohio	61.0	Over
2021	10/16	Buffalo	27	Ohio	26	Buffalo -7.5	Ohio	54.5	Under
2019	10/05	Buffalo	20	Ohio	21	Ohio -3	Buffalo	53.0	Under
2018	11/14	Ohio	52	Buffalo	17	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	66.0	Over
2017	11/24	Buffalo	31	Ohio	24	Ohio -7	Buffalo	56.0	Under
2016	11/03	Ohio	34	Buffalo	10	Ohio -19	Ohio	51.5	Under
2015	10/24	Buffalo	41	Ohio	17	Ohio -2	Buffalo	53.0	Over
2014	11/05	Ohio	37	Buffalo	14	Ohio -2	Ohio	0
2013	11/05	Buffalo	30	Ohio	3	Buffalo -2.5	Buffalo	0
2012	10/06	Ohio	38	Buffalo	31
2011	10/08	Buffalo	38	Ohio	37
2010	11/04	Ohio	34	Buffalo	17
2009	11/10	Buffalo	24	Ohio	27
2008	10/28	Ohio	19	Buffalo	32
2007	10/06	Buffalo	31	Ohio	10
2006	10/21	Ohio	42	Buffalo	7
2005	10/29	Buffalo	20	Ohio	34
2004	09/25	Ohio	34	Buffalo	0
2003	10/25	Buffalo	26	Ohio	17
2002	09/28	Ohio	34	Buffalo	32
2001	11/03	Buffalo	44	Ohio	0
2000	10/06	Ohio	42	Buffalo	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	9	5	5 Overs
Ohio	16	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	19 - 6	10 - 2	5 - 1	5 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 19	2 - 10	1 - 5	1 - 5

(#42) OHIO at (#120) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OHIO	BUFF
Power RatePwr	#42	#120
SP+SP+	#74	#117
Perf GradeGrade	#42	#114
OffenseOff	#36	#130
DefenseDef	#30	#52
Spec TeamsST	#135	#22
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Ohio Injury Report

Buffalo Injury Report

Ohio on Offense


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
Perf GradePerf	#36	#52
SuccessSuc	#33	#33
ExplosiveExp	#129	#99
PPAPPA	#76	#41
PowerPwr	#68	#50
SP+SP+	#115	#87
Pts POPPO	#92	#48
HavocHav	#53	#39

Ohio Run Game


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#89	#44
Run SuccessRSuc	#61	#25
Run ExplRExp	#131	#131
PPAExp	#95	#76
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#90	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#32
TackleTak	-	#121

Ohio Pass Game


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#86
Pass SuccessPSuc	#17	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#18
PPAExp	#57	#29
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#8	#84
F7 HavocF7	#39	#19
DB HavocDB	#84	#95

Buffalo on Offense


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
Perf GradePerf	#130	#30
SuccessSuc	#116	#8
ExplosiveExp	#121	#77
PPAPPA	#130	#3
PowerPwr	#125	#5
SP+SP+	#125	#13
Pts POPPO	#95	#2
HavocHav	#79	#9

Buffalo Run Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#90	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#9
Run ExplRExp	#103	#101
PPAExp	#102	#3
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#76	#8
TackleTak	-	#92

Buffalo Pass Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#129	#12
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#30
PPAExp	#130	#14
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#89	#19
F7 HavocF7	#40	#3
DB HavocDB	#119	#94

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 41° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Ohio 9.5 (45.5)
Ohio won at Buffalo this year (20-10)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Buffalo last year (47-16)
Ohio beat Buffalo in 2023 (20-10)
Ohio beat Buffalo in 2022 (45-24)

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kurtis Rourke	195	307	64%	2207	11	5	7.2
CJ Harris	25	49	51%	248	2	3	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura	178	811	7	4.6	26
O'Shann Allison	139	452	3	3.3	30
Kurtis Rourke	67	219	4	3.3	25
Parker Navarro	25	178	0	7.1	52

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Wiglusz	55	664	3	12.1	38
Miles Cross	47	599	5	12.7	42
Tyler Walton	37	349	2	9.4	27
Will Kacmarek	22	243	2	11.0	36

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Houston	128	13	3	5	1
Keye Thompson	94	10	2	4	2
Walter Reynolds (Tr)	67	2	0	0	1
Austin Brawley	41	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Bradley Weaver	34	13	6	7
Vonnie Watkins	33	8	5	11
Shane Bonner	29	9	5	6
Rayyan Buell	30	13	5	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Justin Birchette	29	3	0	8
Jeremiah Wood	26	3	2	4
Austin Brawley	41	1	0	2

BUFF's OC DJ Mangas (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cole Snyder	203	372	55%	2109	13	9	5.7
CJ Ogbonna (Tr)	8	21	38%	87	1	2	4.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ron Cook Jr.	148	609	6	4.1	36
Michael Washington	90	362	2	4.0	49
Jacqez Barksdale	52	248	2	4.8	39
CJ Ogbonna (Tr)	51	214	3	4.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marlyn Johnson	40	495	4	12.4	80
Darrell Harding Jr.	23	451	3	19.6	52
Boobie Curry	29	303	1	10.4	48
Cole Harrity	35	294	3	8.4	29

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Robert Wright (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joe Andreessen (Tr)	82	11	1	2	2
Devin Grant	78	2	0	0	3
Khalil Murdock	55	8	2	2	0
Marcus Fuqua	51	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Max Michel	45	10	4	1	4
George Wolo	23	6	4	3	1
Khalil Murdock	55	8	2	2	0
Jaylon Bass	12	2	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Oliver	17	1	0	0	5
Max Michel	45	10	4	1	4
Devin Grant	78	2	0	0	3