Central Michigan at Buffalo - 2023 Matchup Preview
Central Michigan logo   Central Michigan Chippewas at Buffalo Bulls  Buffalo logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (2:00 PM EDT)
Central Michigan -2.5 (51.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Buffalo 37 - Central Michigan: 13  (Mid-American)

 
Chippewas (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (25 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (19 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BUFF is playing their 6th straight game
CMU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -5.5  (SP+ BUFF -4)
Projected Score: CMU: 22 - BUFF: 27 (49)
CMU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
CMU Travel: 304 miles
Bulls (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Maurice Linguist (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Central Michigan at Michigan State+14.045.0L 7 - 31UN
Sat 9/9 Central Michigan vs New Hampshire-7.048.5W 45 - 42ON
Sat 9/16 Central Michigan at Notre Dame+34.551.5L 17 - 41OY
Sat 9/23 Central Michigan at South Alabama+16.546.5W 34 - 30OY
Sat 9/30 Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-9.545.0W 26 - 23ON
Sat 10/7 Central Michigan at Buffalo-2.551.5L 13 - 37UN
Sat 10/14 Central Michigan vs Akron-10.544.0W 17 - 10UN
Sat 10/21 Central Michigan at Ball State-5.042.0L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois+3.048.0W 37 - 31OY
Tue 11/7 Central Michigan at Western Michigan+3.557.5L 28 - 38ON
Wed 11/15 Central Michigan at Ohio+11.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Fri 11/24 Central Michigan vs Toledo+12.554.5L 17 - 32UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule
Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Buffalo at Wisconsin+29.052.5L 17 - 38OY
Sat 9/9 Buffalo vs Fordham-23.555.5L 37 - 40ON
Sat 9/16 Buffalo vs Liberty+2.554.0L 27 - 55ON
Sat 9/23 Buffalo at Louisiana+10.557.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 9/30 Buffalo at Akron+3.053.0W 13 - 10UY
Sat 10/7 Buffalo vs Central Michigan+2.551.5W 37 - 13UY
Sat 10/14 Buffalo vs Bowling Green-3.044.5L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/21 Buffalo at Kent State-6.544.0W 24 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Buffalo at Toledo+14.047.0L 13 - 31UN
Tue 11/7 Buffalo vs Ohio+9.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Wed 11/15 Buffalo at Miami (OH)+7.536.5L 10 - 23UN
Tue 11/21 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-6.538.5L 11 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CMU.138%22.540%3.0315938%2083.29.1741%23.541%42%3.5862.82.31
BUFF.1744%2444%2.9214044%2154.06.2741%23.540%44%3.7943.51.32
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CMU Offense1222.519.138.5%3.292.3203671592084.347%51%40%38%23%.1
BUFF Defense1323.524.141.3%3.792 - - - - - 52%48%40%44%25%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CMU Defense1223.52841.2%3.581 - - - - - 54%46%41%42%22%.17
BUFF Offense132424.643.6%4.061.3213551402153.651%47%44%44%22%.17

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Central Michigan1228:4619.935%55%6.962.82.318.32.5028.7
Buffalo1331:1720.641%61%4.743.51.3261.8129.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CMU Offense1247%40%37159.24.322.053.0362%13%1.09
BUFF Defense1352%40% - - - - .222.8968%15%1.33
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CMU Defense1254%41% - - - - .112.9674%15%1.06
BUFF Offense1351%44%39.41403.622.062.9271%12%0.83

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CMU Offense1251%38%18.332.4208.16.411.41610.191.636%33%.3310%2.1
BUFF Defense1348%44% - - - - - - 11.361.734%31%.410%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CMU Defense1246%42% - - - - - - 4.281.634%30%.278%2.1
BUFF Offense1347%44%19.232.22156.711.2158.331.631%35%.359%2

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -11.77  #124
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.74  #74
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 17.30  #125
2023 Talent Rating: 332.64  #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Central Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Central Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.2  #126
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7  #119
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -11.77   Buffalo: -10.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -19.2   Buffalo: -15.1




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.165  #120
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.90  #125
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.32  #50
2023 Talent Rating: 296.09  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Buffalo's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Buffalo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1  #117
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #125
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.1
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Central Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 27
Central Michigan 22

Projected Total Points: 49
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/12Central Michigan38Buffalo19Central Michigan -2.5Central Michigan44.5Over
202310/07Buffalo37Central Michigan13Central Michigan -2.5Buffalo51.5Under
202211/09Central Michigan31Buffalo27Central Michigan -3Central Michigan54.0Over
201910/26Buffalo43Central Michigan20Buffalo -1.5Buffalo46.5Over
201810/06Central Michigan24Buffalo34Buffalo -6.5Buffalo52.0Over
201510/17Central Michigan51Buffalo14Central Michigan -7Central Michigan55.5Over
201410/25Buffalo14Central Michigan20Central Michigan -1.5Central Michigan0
200910/03Buffalo13Central Michigan20
200809/27Central Michigan27Buffalo25
200611/24Buffalo28Central Michigan55
200411/13Buffalo36Central Michigan6
200109/29Buffalo8Central Michigan16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo435 Overs
Central Michigan841 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 55 - 24 - 01 - 2
Road Teams5 - 72 - 52 - 10 - 4

(#124) CMU at (#120) BUFF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCMUBUFF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #124 #120
SP+SP+ #126 #117
Perf GradeGrade #111 #114
OffenseOff #113 #130
DefenseDef #101 #52
Spec TeamsST #34 #22
TalentTal #126 #131
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Central Michigan on Offense
CategoryCat
CMU OffBUFF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #113 #52
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #74 #50
SP+SP+ #119 #87
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Central Michigan Run Game
CategoryCat
CMU OffBUFF Def
Run GameRun #98 #44
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #80 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #121
Central Michigan Pass Game
CategoryCat
CMU OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePass #90 #86
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #116 #84
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Buffalo on Offense
CategoryCatBUFF OffCMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #130 #101
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #125 #125
SP+SP+ #125 #109
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Buffalo Run Game
CategoryCat
BUFF OffCMU Def
Run GameRun #90 #93
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #128 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #53
Buffalo Pass Game
CategoryCatBUFF OffCMU Def
Pass GamePass #118 #98
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #89 #92
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

CMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Central Michigan 2.5 (51.5)
Buffalo won vs Central Michigan this year (37-13)

Previous Matchups
Central Michigan beat Buffalo last year (38-19)
Buffalo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (37-13)

  
CMU's OC Paul Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jase Bauer16328757%18811286.6
Bert Emanuel Jr.193751%286337.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marion Lukes14473755.146
Myles Bailey10247634.748
Jase Bauer121366103.029
Bert Emanuel Jr.5022024.466
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyson Davis29444415.367
Jesse Prewitt III31438414.170
Chris Parker23409317.862
Marion Lukes29300010.344

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Jones613002
Kyle Moretti593215
Donte Kent523117
Dakota Cochran512011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacques Bristol418452
Maurice White185450
Quindario Lee267340
Kyle Moretti593215
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donte Kent523117
Kyle Moretti593215
Daraun McKinney393014

BUFF's OC DJ Mangas (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cole Snyder20337255%21091395.7
CJ Ogbonna (Tr)82138%87124.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ron Cook Jr.14860964.136
Michael Washington9036224.049
Jacqez Barksdale5224824.839
CJ Ogbonna (Tr)5121434.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marlyn Johnson40495412.480
Darrell Harding Jr.23451319.652
Boobie Curry29303110.448
Cole Harrity3529438.429

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Robert Wright (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joe Andreessen (Tr)8211122
Devin Grant782003
Khalil Murdock558220
Marcus Fuqua513011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Michel4510414
George Wolo236431
Khalil Murdock558220
Jaylon Bass122211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Oliver171005
Max Michel4510414
Devin Grant782003