Texas State at Coastal Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Texas State -2.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Coastal Carolina 31 - Texas State: 23 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CCU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Coastal Carolina -3 (SP+ CCU -1)
Projected Score: TXST: 27 - CCU: 30 (58)
TXST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 1140 miles, 1 hrs behind

Chanticleers (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tim Beck* (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 22 - 33 (22 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#50)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
CCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Coastal Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Coastal Carolina at UCLA	+15.5	66.5	L 13 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Coastal Carolina vs Jacksonville State	-13.5	61.0	W 30 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Coastal Carolina vs Duquesne	-35.0	55.5	W 66 - 7	O	Y
Thu 9/21	Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State	-4.5	62.5	L 17 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/30	Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern	+6.0	67.5	L 28 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	Coastal Carolina at App State	+4.5	59.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State	-8.5	59.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Coastal Carolina vs Marshall	+3.5	47.0	W 34 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion	-1.0	51.0	W 28 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Coastal Carolina vs Texas State	+2.5	55.5	W 31 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Coastal Carolina at Army	-1.5	40.5	L 21 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/25	Coastal Carolina vs James Madison	+9.5	50.5	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 12/23	Coastal Carolina vs San José State	+7.5	48.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	29	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
CCU	.3	47%	22.2	45%	3.05	159	49%	246	3.78	.32	45%	33.1	43%	48%	4.1	56.8	1.5	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
CCU Defense	13	33.1	26.5	45.1%	4.1	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	43%	48%	18%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
CCU Offense	13	22.2	21.7	46.9%	3.78	1.5	22	405	159	246	4	54%	46%	45%	49%	14%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
Coastal Carolina	13	32:23	21.8	43%	57%	6.2	56.8	1.5	2.2	6.1	2.6	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
CCU Defense	13	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.06	71%	12%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
CCU Offense	13	54%	45%	39.5	159	4	22	.2	3.05	76%	11%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
CCU Defense	13	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.48	1.7	32%	34%	.49	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
CCU Offense	13	46%	49%	18.2	27.8	246.2	8.9	13.5	27	6	.46	1.7	31%	34%	.4	3%	2.2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 484.79 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 Coastal Carolina: -0.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 Coastal Carolina: -2.9

Coastal Carolina's Power Ratings
Coastal Carolina's Power Rating: -0.04 #78
Coastal Carolina's Offense Rating: 16.94 #62
Coastal Carolina's Defense Rating: 9.43 #65
2023 Talent Rating: 515.69 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Coastal Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 7.50 - 5.50
Coastal Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.9 #76
Coastal Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #62
Coastal Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #78

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Coastal Carolina 30
Texas State 27

Projected Total Points: 58

Coastal Carolina Scoring
Offense: 22.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 33.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.5

Coastal Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Coastal Carolina	31	Texas State	23	Texas State -2.5	Coastal Carolina	55.5	Under
2021	11/20	Coastal Carolina	35	Texas State	21	Coastal Carolina -24.5	Texas State	60.5	Under
2020	11/28	Texas State	14	Coastal Carolina	49	Coastal Carolina -16.5	Coastal Carolina	59.0	Over
2019	11/30	Coastal Carolina	24	Texas State	21	Coastal Carolina -7	Texas State	52.0	Under
2017	10/28	Coastal Carolina	7	Texas State	27	Coastal Carolina -9.5	Texas State	54.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Coastal Carolina	4	2	1 Overs
Texas State	1	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	1 - 4	0 - 3	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	4 - 1	1 - 1	3 - 0

(#77) TXST at (#78) CCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	CCU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#77	#78
SP+SP+	#79	#76
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#71
OffenseOff	#48	#55
DefenseDef	#51	#83
Spec TeamsST	#53	#89
TalentTal	#94	#85
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Texas State Injury Report

Coastal Carolina Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	CCU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#48	#83
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#21	#65
SP+SP+	#47	#78
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	CCU Def
Run GameRun	#53	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#29

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	CCU Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#52
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Coastal Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	CCU Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#55	#51
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#62	#91
SP+SP+	#62	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Coastal Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	CCU Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#76	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#122

Coastal Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	CCU Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#55	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CCU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brooks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Texas State 2.5 (55.5)
Coastal Carolina won vs Texas State this year (31-23)

Previous Matchups
Coastal Carolina beat Texas State in 2023 (31-23)

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5

CCU's OC Travis Trickett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Grayson McCall	151	224	67%	1919	10	6	8.6
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	76	122	62%	779	7	1	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braydon Bennett	91	407	5	4.5	21
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	63	368	2	5.8	75
CJ Beasley	68	262	2	3.9	21
Reese White	77	252	2	3.3	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Pinckney	72	1027	8	14.3	52
Jared Brown	58	740	4	12.8	59
Jameson Tucker	20	423	3	21.2	51
Kyre Duplessis	16	242	1	15.1	64

View Coastal Carolina's Full Roster

CCU's DC Craig Naivar (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Clayton Isbell	89	5	1	0	5
JT Killen	68	3	0	2	2
Micheal Mason	65	9	6	4	1
Juan Powell (Tr)	55	5	0	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Micheal Mason	65	9	6	4	1
Will Whitson	42	5	3	5	0
Clinton Anokwuru	23	5	3	0	0
Allen Henry	39	3	3	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Matthew McDoom	27	0	0	10
Keonte Lusk	37	1	1	6
Juan Powell (Tr)	55	5	1	6