UL Monroe at Texas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

UL Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -18.5 (64.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas State 21 - UL Monroe: 20 (Sun Belt)

Warhawks (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Bowden (10 - 17)
Avg Score : 17 - 35 (14 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.7 - 9.3 (#131)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -19.5 (SP+ TXST -19)
Projected Score: ULM: 21 - TXST: 41 (62)
TXST Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
ULM Travel: 391 miles

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 33 (41 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ULM Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UL Monroe's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UL Monroe vs Army	+8.5	47.0	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UL Monroe vs Lamar	-26.0	48.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	UL Monroe at Texas A&M	+36.5	53.5	L 3 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	UL Monroe vs App State	+13.5	50.5	L 40 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/7	UL Monroe vs South Alabama	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/14	UL Monroe at Texas State	+18.5	64.5	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/21	UL Monroe at Georgia Southern	+16.5	60.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/28	UL Monroe vs Arkansas State	-1.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	UL Monroe at Southern Miss	+3.0	56.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	UL Monroe vs Troy	+23.5	47.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	UL Monroe at Ole Miss	+35.5	59.5	L 3 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UL Monroe at Louisiana	+12.5	53.0	L 21 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM	#124 (.06)	36% (128)	17.3	40% (97)	3.18 (56)	146	32% (133)	175	2.61 (130)	#107 (.24)	46% (117)	34.9	44% (78)	49% (132)	4.1 (97)	53.6	1.5	1.6
TXST	#23 (.29)	47% (20)	36.7	46% (36)	3.19 (53)	188	48% (15)	271	4.55 (19)	#64 (.18)	40% (45)	32.8	39% (37)	42% (77)	3.7 (59)	68	1.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM	#94 (.15)	37% (121)		40% (102)	2.93 (87)	173	33% (128)	135	3.33 (117)	#89 (.2)	47% (120)		53% (134)	39% (53)	4.12 (99)	43.3	1.3	1.1
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Offense	12	17.3	13.7	35.6%	2.61	1.5	16	321	146	175	4.2	49%	50%	40%	32%	19%	.06
TXST Defense	13	32.8	29.5	40.4%	3.7	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	42%	19%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Defense	12	34.9	36.2	45.6%	4.1	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	49%	15%	.24
TXST Offense	13	36.7	40.5	46.7%	4.55	1.8	24	459	188	271	4.6	51%	48%	46%	48%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UL Monroe	12	27:02	15.8	32%	35%	5.9	53.6	1.5	1.6	6.1	2	2	31
Texas State	13	29:04	23.9	44%	66%	7.2	68	1.8	1.7	7.7	2.6	4	29.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Offense	12	49% (78)	40% (97)	34.6	146.3	4.2	7 (131)	.11 (89)	3.18 (56)	74% (63)	12% (100)	0.92 (102)
TXST Defense	13	50% (69)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	.12 (56)	2.87 (28)	54% (3)	14% (6)	1.21 (127)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Defense	12	53% (107)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.11 (42)	3.06 (58)	75% (78)	11% (55)	0.9 (26)
TXST Offense	13	51% (56)	46% (36)	40.5	187.8	4.6	33 (8)	.24 (21)	3.19 (53)	78% (31)	11% (84)	1.13 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Offense	12	50% (59)	32% (133)	14.8	28.8	174.8	6.1	11.9	15 (96)	13 (97)	.03 (131)	1.7 (22)	36% (124)	21% (133)	.12 (124)	7% (111)	2.3 (9)
TXST Defense	13	49% (68)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.27 (66)	1.7 (109)	36% (10)	36% (123)	.42 (113)	5% (117)	2 (47)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Defense	12	46% (25)	49% (132)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.48 (132)	1.7 (97)	32% (68)	39% (130)	.52 (129)	5% (121)	2 (48)
TXST Offense	13	48% (73)	48% (15)	22.1	33	270.9	8.2	12.3	24 (41)	9 (40)	.36 (36)	1.5 (97)	32% (63)	36% (22)	.47 (24)	4% (8)	2 (80)

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -17.44 #132
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 6.82 #131
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 13.52 #108
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
UL Monroe's 2023 Expected Record: 2.70 - 9.30
UL Monroe's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.5 #132
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #117
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -17.44 Texas State: -0.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -22.5 Texas State: -4.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -0.53 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 17.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.7
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.2

UL Monroe's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 41
UL Monroe 21

Total Points: 62

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.5
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	UL Monroe	17	Texas State	38	Texas State	Texas State -9.5	Texas State	50.0	Over
2023	10/14	Texas State	21	UL Monroe	20	Texas State	Texas State -18.5	UL Monroe	64.5	Under
2022	11/05	UL Monroe	31	Texas State	30	UL Monroe	Louisiana Monroe -2.5	Texas State	52.5	Over
2021	11/06	Texas State	27	UL Monroe	19	Texas State	Texas State -3	Texas State	57.5	Under
2020	09/19	UL Monroe	17	Texas State	38	Texas State	Texas State -3	Texas State	58.0	Under
2019	10/10	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	24	UL Monroe	Louisiana Monroe -3.5	UL Monroe	60.5	Under
2018	10/20	UL Monroe	20	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	Louisiana Monroe -10.5	Texas State	60.0	Under
2017	10/07	Texas State	27	UL Monroe	45	UL Monroe	Louisiana Monroe -6	UL Monroe	55.0	Over
2016	10/15	UL Monroe	40	Texas State	34	UL Monroe	Louisiana Monroe -4.5	UL Monroe	66.5	Over
2015	11/19	Texas State	16	UL Monroe	3	Texas State	Texas State -5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2014	10/25	UL Monroe	18	Texas State	22	Texas State	Louisiana Monroe -2	Texas State	0
2013	10/12	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	21	UL Monroe	Texas State -6	UL Monroe	0
2000	09/29	UL Monroe	7	Texas State	27	Texas State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	7	7	4 Overs
UL Monroe	6	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 7	3 - 9	3 - 5	0 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 6	9 - 3	4 - 0	5 - 3

(#132) UL Monroe Info
Power Rating: -17.44 #132
Offense Rating: 6.82 #131
Defense Rating: 13.52 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -22.5 #132
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #130
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 2.70 - 9.30

UL Monroe has lost 3 straight
UL Monroe has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 6 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

UL Monroe Highlights
UL Monroe does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#98)

UL Monroe Deficiencies
UL Monroe has a really bad Offense
UL Monroe offense is really bad (#127)
UL Monroe offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#75)
UL Monroe pass game is really bad (#121)
UL Monroe offense is bad on 3rd Downs
UL Monroe Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
UL Monroe has a bad defense (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	TXST	ULM
OverallOver	#37	#107
OffenseOff	#45	#110
DefenseDef	#43	#90
Special TeamsST	#45	#56
PassingPass	#28	#105
RushingRush	#38	#80
Run BlockRBLK	#79	#90
Pass BlockPBLK	#67	#58
Route RunningWR Rt	#35	#98
TacklingTkl	#104	#36
Run DefenseR Def	#66	#72
Pass Rush DefPRush	#9	#46
Coverage DefCov	#39	#107

Rematch from Week 7
Texas State -18.5 (64.5)
Texas State won vs UL Monroe this year (21-20)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UL Monroe last year (38-17)
Texas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (21-20)
UL Monroe beat Texas State in 2022 (31-30)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ULM | TXST
Depth Chart: ULM | TXST
Rosters: ULM | TXST

(#77) Texas State Info
Power Rating: -0.53 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20

Texas State has lost 1 straight
Texas State has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Texas State Highlights
Texas State has Really Good Running Game (#16)
Texas State offense is efficent (#32)
Texas State offense is good in red zone (#30)
Texas State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Texas State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#41)
Texas State Defensive Line is very good (#119)
Texas State Front 7 is disruptive (#80)

Texas State Deficiencies
Texas State has a bad TO Margin (#54)
Texas State Fumbles a Lot (#89)
Texas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
Texas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Texas State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#123)

UL Monroe's OC Matt Kubik

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jiya Wright	107	204	53%	1246	10	8	6.1
Blake Murphy	53	104	51%	721	4	5	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hunter Smith	94	507	3	5.4	62
Isaiah Woullard	98	447	1	4.6	44
Bennett Galloway	44	287	0	6.5	41
Jiya Wright	99	264	2	2.7	44

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyrone Howell	49	590	7	12.0	46
Dariyan Wiley	24	400	2	16.7	68
Devaughn Mortimer	15	291	0	19.4	54
NyNy Davis (Tr)	28	222	2	7.9	51

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

UL Monroe's DC Vic Koenning

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Batton	79	3	1	3	0
Max Harris	79	1	0	0	2
Adin Huntington	62	16	9	4	2
JaTerious Evans	62	6	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adin Huntington	62	16	9	4	2
Kenard Snyder	60	15	6	3	2
Dylan Howell	34	4	3	1	2
James Smith	11	4	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A.J. Watts	50	1	1	6
Car'lin Vigers	54	0	0	3
Lucius Tillery	30	0	0	3

Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5