UL Monroe at Texas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

UL Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -18.5 (64.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas State 21 - UL Monroe: 20 (Sun Belt)

Warhawks (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Bowden (10 - 17)
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.7 - 9.3 (#131)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -19.5 (SP+ TXST -19)
Projected Score: ULM: 21 - TXST: 40 (61)
TXST Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
ULM Travel: 391 miles

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ULM Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UL Monroe's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UL Monroe vs Army	+8.5	47.0	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UL Monroe vs Lamar	-26.0	48.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	UL Monroe at Texas A&M	+36.5	53.5	L 3 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	UL Monroe vs App State	+13.5	50.5	L 40 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/7	UL Monroe vs South Alabama	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/14	UL Monroe at Texas State	+18.5	64.5	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/21	UL Monroe at Georgia Southern	+16.5	60.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/28	UL Monroe vs Arkansas State	-1.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	UL Monroe at Southern Miss	+3.0	56.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	UL Monroe vs Troy	+23.5	47.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	UL Monroe at Ole Miss	+35.5	59.5	L 3 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UL Monroe at Louisiana	+12.5	53.0	L 21 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM	.14	39%	16.6	41%	3.07	121	38%	205	4.13	.24	45%	31.9	45%	46%	4.06	44.8	1.3	0.8
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	29	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Offense	12	16.6	15.4	39.1%	4.13	1.3	18	326	121	205	3.5	48%	52%	41%	38%	18%	.14
TXST Defense	12	29	28.3	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Defense	12	31.9	39	45.1%	4.06	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	45%	46%	14%	.24
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UL Monroe	12	29:28	17.8	40%	36%	4.9	44.8	1.3	0.8	5.8	1.7	1	27.6
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Offense	12	48%	41%	34.8	120.6	3.5	16	.12	3.07	68%	12%	0.99
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Defense	12	54%	45%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.16	66%	10%	1.08
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Offense	12	52%	38%	18.4	27.6	205.3	7.4	11.2	16	7	.21	1.7	36%	27%	.19	5%	2
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Defense	12	45%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.33	1.6	33%	34%	.37	4%	2.1
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -17.44 #132
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 6.82 #131
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 13.52 #108
2023 Talent Rating: 336.22 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
UL Monroe's 2023 Expected Record: 2.70 - 9.30
UL Monroe's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.5 #132
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #117
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -17.44 Texas State: -0.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -22.5 Texas State: -4.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -0.53 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 484.79 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.4
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

UL Monroe's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 40
UL Monroe 21

Projected Total Points: 61

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Texas State	31	UL Monroe	14	Texas State -20.5	UL Monroe	59.5	Under
2024	11/09	UL Monroe	17	Texas State	38	Texas State -9.5	Texas State	50.0	Over
2023	10/14	Texas State	21	UL Monroe	20	Texas State -18.5	UL Monroe	64.5	Under
2022	11/05	UL Monroe	31	Texas State	30	Louisiana Monroe -2.5	Texas State	52.5	Over
2021	11/06	Texas State	27	UL Monroe	19	Texas State -3	Texas State	57.5	Under
2020	09/19	UL Monroe	17	Texas State	38	Texas State -3	Texas State	58.0	Under
2019	10/10	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	24	Louisiana Monroe -3.5	UL Monroe	60.5	Under
2018	10/20	UL Monroe	20	Texas State	14	Louisiana Monroe -10.5	Texas State	60.0	Under
2017	10/07	Texas State	27	UL Monroe	45	Louisiana Monroe -6	UL Monroe	55.0	Over
2016	10/15	UL Monroe	40	Texas State	34	Louisiana Monroe -4.5	UL Monroe	66.5	Over
2015	11/19	Texas State	16	UL Monroe	3	Texas State -5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2014	10/25	UL Monroe	18	Texas State	22	Louisiana Monroe -2	Texas State	0
2013	10/12	Texas State	14	UL Monroe	21	Texas State -6	UL Monroe	0
2000	09/29	UL Monroe	7	Texas State	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	8	7	4 Overs
UL Monroe	6	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	3 - 10	3 - 6	0 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 7	10 - 3	4 - 0	6 - 3

(#132) ULM at (#77) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ULM	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#132	#77
SP+SP+	#132	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#128	#45
OffenseOff	#129	#48
DefenseDef	#117	#51
Spec TeamsST	#70	#53
TalentTal	#125	#94
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

UL Monroe Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

UL Monroe on Offense


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#129	#51
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#131	#91
SP+SP+	#117	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UL Monroe Run Game


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#111	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#121	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#122

UL Monroe Pass Game


CategoryCat	ULM Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#125	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#67	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#48	#117
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#21	#108
SP+SP+	#47	#130
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
Run GameRun	#53	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#41

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ULM Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Texas State -18.5 (64.5)
Texas State won vs UL Monroe this year (21-20)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UL Monroe last year (31-14)
Texas State beat UL Monroe in 2024 (38-17)
Texas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (21-20)

ULM's OC Matt Kubik (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jiya Wright	107	204	53%	1246	10	8	6.1
Blake Murphy	53	104	51%	721	4	5	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hunter Smith	94	507	3	5.4	62
Isaiah Woullard	98	447	1	4.6	44
Bennett Galloway	44	287	0	6.5	41
Jiya Wright	99	264	2	2.7	44

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyrone Howell	49	590	7	12.0	46
Dariyan Wiley	24	400	2	16.7	68
Devaughn Mortimer	15	291	0	19.4	54
NyNy Davis (Tr)	28	222	2	7.9	51

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Vic Koenning (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Batton	79	3	1	3	0
Max Harris	79	1	0	0	2
Adin Huntington	62	16	9	4	2
JaTerious Evans	62	6	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adin Huntington	62	16	9	4	2
Kenard Snyder	60	15	6	3	2
Dylan Howell	34	4	3	1	2
James Smith	11	4	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A.J. Watts	50	1	1	6
Car'lin Vigers	54	0	0	3
Lucius Tillery	30	0	0	3

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5