Georgia Southern at Texas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Georgia Southern Eagles at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (5:00 PM EDT)
Georgia Southern -2 (69.0) (114) Open: -2.5
Texas State 45 - Georgia Southern: 24 (Sun Belt)

Eagles (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 31 (25 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 3rd straight Home Game
GASO is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -6 (SP+ TXST -0)
Projected Score: GASO: 30 - TXST: 36 (65)
GASO Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
GASO Travel: 969 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 33 (41 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GASO Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia Southern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Georgia Southern vs The Citadel	-34.0	53.5	W 34 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/9	Georgia Southern vs UAB	-7.0	63.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Georgia Southern at Wisconsin	+20.5	65.5	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/23	Georgia Southern at Ball State	-6.0	60.0	W 40 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina	-6.0	67.5	W 38 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Georgia Southern at James Madison	+5.5	60.0	L 13 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/21	Georgia Southern vs UL Monroe	-16.5	60.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Thu 10/26	Georgia Southern vs Georgia State	+1.0	63.0	W 44 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Georgia Southern at Texas State	-2.0	69.0	L 24 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/11	Georgia Southern at Marshall	-1.5	56.5	L 33 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion	-4.5	61.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/25	Georgia Southern at App State	+7.5	62.5	L 27 - 55	O	N
Sat 12/16	Georgia Southern vs Ohio	-1.5	48.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#55 (.21)	45% (32)	30.2	48% (21)	3.13 (64)	117	45% (40)	302	3.64 (88)	#118 (.27)	45% (107)	30.5	45% (94)	45% (115)	4.45 (123)	51.8	2.4	1.6
TXST	#23 (.29)	47% (20)	36.7	46% (36)	3.19 (53)	188	48% (15)	271	4.55 (19)	#64 (.18)	40% (45)	32.8	39% (37)	42% (77)	3.7 (59)	68	1.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)		46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)		47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Offense	13	30.2	25.2	45.3%	3.64	2.4	23	419	117	302	4	35%	64%	48%	45%	17%	.21
TXST Defense	13	32.8	29.5	40.4%	3.7	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	42%	19%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Defense	13	30.5	36.2	44.9%	4.45	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	45%	22%	.27
TXST Offense	13	36.7	40.5	46.7%	4.55	1.8	24	459	188	271	4.6	51%	48%	46%	48%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia Southern	13	31:06	23.1	46%	59%	5.8	51.8	2.4	1.6	7	1.8	4	30.8
Texas State	13	29:04	23.9	44%	66%	7.2	68	1.8	1.7	7.7	2.6	4	29.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Offense	13	35% (130)	48% (21)	29	117.1	4	16 (89)	.23 (25)	3.13 (64)	78% (35)	10% (63)	1.05 (41)
TXST Defense	13	50% (69)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	.12 (56)	2.87 (28)	54% (3)	14% (6)	1.21 (127)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Defense	13	49% (55)	45% (94)	-	-	-	-	.25 (122)	3.16 (85)	72% (59)	14% (7)	1.13 (116)
TXST Offense	13	51% (56)	46% (36)	40.5	187.8	4.6	33 (8)	.24 (21)	3.19 (53)	78% (31)	11% (84)	1.13 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Offense	13	64% (4)	45% (40)	28.9	44.4	302.2	6.8	10.5	26 (31)	20 (133)	.26 (74)	1.4 (131)	30% (41)	34% (35)	.41 (42)	8% (114)	2.1 (62)
TXST Defense	13	49% (68)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.27 (66)	1.7 (109)	36% (10)	36% (123)	.42 (113)	5% (117)	2 (47)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Defense	13	50% (81)	45% (115)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.3 (89)	1.5 (32)	31% (96)	35% (120)	.49 (127)	9% (5)	2.1 (81)
TXST Offense	13	48% (73)	48% (15)	22.1	33	270.9	8.2	12.3	24 (41)	9 (40)	.36 (36)	1.5 (97)	32% (63)	36% (22)	.47 (24)	4% (8)	2 (80)

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -8.20 #109
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 16.14 #69
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 13.87 #111
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #68
Georgia Southern's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
Georgia Southern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #80
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #120

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -8.20 Texas State: -0.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -4.4 Texas State: -4.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -0.53 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.2

Georgia Southern's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 36
Georgia Southern 30

Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 29
Georgia Southern 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 36
Georgia Southern 30

Total Points: 66

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.5
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/04	Texas State	45	Georgia Southern	24	Georgia Southern -2	Texas State	69.0	Push
2021	11/13	Texas State	30	Georgia Southern	38	Texas State -2.5	Georgia Southern	52.0	Over
2020	11/14	Georgia Southern	40	Texas State	38	Georgia Southern -11	Texas State	50.0	Over
2018	10/11	Texas State	13	Georgia Southern	15	Georgia Southern -17	Texas State	52.0	Under
2015	10/29	Georgia Southern	37	Texas State	13	Georgia Southern -18.5	Georgia Southern	65.0	Under
2014	11/08	Texas State	25	Georgia Southern	28	Georgia Southern -8	Texas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	1	4	2 Overs
Georgia Southern	5	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	4 - 2	1 - 2	3 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 3	2 - 4	0 - 3	2 - 1

(#109) GASO at (#77) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GASO	TXST
Power RatePwr	#109	#77
SP+SP+	#80	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#75	#45
OffenseOff	#76	#48
DefenseDef	#81	#51
Spec TeamsST	#48	#53
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#68	#75

Georgia Southern Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

Georgia Southern on Offense


CategoryCat	GASO Off	TXST Def
Perf GradePerf	#76	#51
SuccessSuc	#32	#45
ExplosiveExp	#95	#126
PPAPPA	#55	#64
PowerPwr	#69	#91
SP+SP+	#40	#114
Pts POPPO	#88	#59
HavocHav	#91	#17

Georgia Southern Run Game


CategoryCat	GASO Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#64	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#37
Run ExplRExp	#41	#127
PPAExp	#25	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#106	-
OL YdsOLY	#64	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#21
TackleTak	-	#122

Georgia Southern Pass Game


CategoryCat	GASO Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#77
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#109
PPAExp	#74	#66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#10
F7 HavocF7	#63	#6
DB HavocDB	#114	#117

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GASO Def
Perf GradePerf	#48	#81
SuccessSuc	#20	#107
ExplosiveExp	#50	#83
PPAPPA	#23	#118
PowerPwr	#21	#111
SP+SP+	#47	#120
Pts POPPO	#19	#123
HavocHav	#48	#4

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#53	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#36	#94
Run ExplRExp	#15	#116
PPAExp	#21	#122
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	#53	#85
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#61
TackleTak	-	#48

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#15	#115
Pass ExplPExl	#97	#32
PPAExp	#36	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#105
F7 HavocF7	#84	#7
DB HavocDB	#8	#5

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

GASO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Georgia Southern 2.0 (69.0)
Texas State won vs Georgia Southern this year (45-24)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Georgia Southern in 2023 (45-24)

GASO's OC Bryan Ellis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Davis Brin (Tr)	362	552	66%	3781	24	19	6.8
JC French (Tr)	13	16	81%	122	1	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen White	160	889	9	5.6	45
OJ Arnold	75	411	4	5.5	39
David Mbadinga	22	112	2	5.1	29
Dalen Cobb	7	51	0	7.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Khaleb Hood	101	948	5	9.4	43
Derwin Burgess Jr.	74	813	6	11.0	68
Dalen Cobb	40	601	2	15.0	76
Jjay Mcafee	37	378	4	10.2	32

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Watson-Trent	116	13	4	2	2
Tyrell Davis	65	5	0	0	3
Khadry Jackson	57	6	1	2	2
Marc Stampley II	56	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Walker	24	9	6	3	7
Elhadj Fall	19	5	4	1	1
Marques Watson-Trent	116	13	4	2	2
Da'Shawn Davis	25	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shemar Bartholomew	38	3	0	0	14
Damel Hickman (Tr)	36	2	0	1	7
Isaac Walker	24	9	6	3	7

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5