Nevada at Texas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -17 (60.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas State 35 - Nevada: 24

Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (2 - 13)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#129)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Home Game
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -18.5 (SP+ TXST -18)
Projected Score: NEV: 20 - TXST: 38 (58)
TXST Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
NEV Travel: 1406 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Nevada at USC	+37.5	63.5	L 14 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/9	Nevada vs Idaho	+5.5	51.0	L 6 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nevada vs Kansas	+28.5	58.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Nevada at Texas State	+17.0	60.0	L 24 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Nevada at Fresno State	+25.5	50.5	L 9 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	51.5	L 27 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/21	Nevada at San Diego State	+11.0	48.5	W 6 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Nevada vs New Mexico	+1.0	50.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-3.5	50.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	Nevada at Utah State	+14.5	54.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/18	Nevada at Colorado State	+12.5	45.5	L 20 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Nevada vs Wyoming	+11.0	42.0	L 6 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	.04	35%	17.6	37%	2.89	119	33%	186	2.85	.26	43%	27.5	44%	42%	3.97	55.1	1.4	1.7
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	29	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.6	15.5	34.8%	2.85	1.4	17	305	119	186	3.3	47%	52%	37%	33%	23%	.04
TXST Defense	12	29	28.3	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	27.5	29.8	42.9%	3.97	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	44%	42%	19%	.26
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	28:29	16.9	35%	50%	6	55.1	1.4	1.7	6.3	2.2	1	27.2
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	47%	37%	35.6	118.9	3.3	19	.01	2.89	73%	15%	1.08
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.46	90%	13%	0.95
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	52%	33%	18.1	33.2	185.6	5.6	10.3	7	8	.1	1.6	38%	27%	.19	8%	2.2
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.8	33%	30%	.44	6%	2.4
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -15.41 #131
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Nevada's Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
2023 Talent Rating: 470.32 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Nevada's 2023 Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10
Nevada's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.41 Texas State: -0.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -22.4 Texas State: -4.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -0.53 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 484.79 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 38
Nevada 20

Projected Total Points: 58

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Texas State	35	Nevada	24	Texas State -17	Nevada	60.0	Under
2022	09/03	Nevada	38	Texas State	14	Texas State -2	Nevada	51.5	Over
2012	09/29	Texas State	21	Nevada	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	1	0	1 Overs
Nevada	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#131) NEV at (#77) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#131	#77
SP+SP+	#131	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#136	#45
OffenseOff	#133	#48
DefenseDef	#132	#51
Spec TeamsST	#84	#53
TalentTal	#99	#94
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Nevada Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#51
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#128	#91
SP+SP+	#129	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#115	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#122

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#122	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#48	#132
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#21	#110
SP+SP+	#47	#127
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#53	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#129

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#136
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Texas State -17.0 (60.0)
Texas State won vs Nevada this year (35-24)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Nevada in 2023 (35-24)

NEV's OC Derek Sage (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	131	236	56%	1313	2	6	5.6
AJ Bianco	45	82	55%	614	4	5	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Dollars	151	527	6	3.5	33
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	120	495	4	4.1	31
AJ Bianco	42	183	1	4.4	28
Jamaal Bell	32	114	1	3.6	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dalevon Campbell	31	594	2	19.2	53
Spencer Curtis	30	373	1	12.4	73
John Jackson III (Tr)	35	267	0	7.6	33
Jamaal Bell	32	262	1	8.2	77

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kwame Agyeman (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emany Johnson	90	3	0	0	3
Richard Toney	62	4	1	0	1
Drue Watts	56	6	1	1	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	48	2	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcel Walker	43	7	4	1	1
Ike Nnakenyi	3	2	2	0	0
Dion Washington	12	5	1	2	0
Mackavelli Malotumau (Tr)	11	1	1	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KK Meier	25	1	0	0	5
Emany Johnson	90	3	0	0	3
Drue Watts	56	6	1	1	3

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5