Texas State at UTSA - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UT San Antonio -13.5 (66.5) (0) Open: 0.0
UTSA 20 - Texas State: 13

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: UTSA -8.5 (SP+ UTSA -8)
Projected Score: TXST: 29 - UTSA: 38 (67)
UTSA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
TXST Travel: 47 miles

Roadrunners (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (31 - 12)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (46 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#32)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
UTSA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

UTSA's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UTSA at Houston	-2.5	59.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/9	UTSA vs Texas State	-13.5	66.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Fri 9/15	UTSA vs Army	-7.0	42.0	L 29 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/23	UTSA at Tennessee	+24.0	59.0	L 14 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	UTSA at Temple	-14.0	56.0	W 49 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/14	UTSA vs UAB	-9.0	67.0	W 41 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/21	UTSA at Florida Atlantic	-2.5	58.5	W 36 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UTSA vs East Carolina	-17.5	48.0	W 41 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/4	UTSA at North Texas	-7.5	71.0	W 37 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/11	UTSA vs Rice	-13.5	53.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Fri 11/17	UTSA vs South Florida	-14.5	65.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/24	UTSA at Tulane	+2.5	51.5	L 16 - 29	U	N
Tue 12/19	UTSA vs Marshall	-7.0	47.0	W 35 - 17	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	29	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
UTSA	.31	49%	35.5	46%	3.41	176	53%	300	4.28	.16	36%	28.8	34%	38%	3.18	62.6	1.4	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UTSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
UTSA Defense	14	28.8	25.5	35.8%	3.18	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	34%	38%	21%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
UTSA Offense	14	35.5	45.8	49.3%	4.28	1.4	26	476	176	300	4.5	48%	52%	46%	53%	14%	.31

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
UTSA	14	29:44	25.9	49%	48%	7.1	62.6	1.4	1.7	6.4	1.8	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
UTSA Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.65	67%	12%	1.24

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
UTSA Offense	14	48%	46%	38.8	175.6	4.5	28	.21	3.41	75%	9%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
UTSA Defense	14	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.25	1.7	36%	28%	.31	8%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
UTSA Offense	14	52%	53%	24.4	35.9	300.4	8.4	12.3	34	9	.44	1.5	27%	38%	.49	6%	2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 484.79 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 UTSA: 5.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 UTSA: 4.2

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 5.32 #55
UTSA's Offense Rating: 18.48 #51
UTSA's Defense Rating: 7.49 #43
2023 Talent Rating: 574.52 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UTSA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40
UTSA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2 #49
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UTSA 38
Texas State 29

Projected Total Points: 67

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.5

UTSA's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	UTSA	36	Texas State	43	UTSA -4.5	Texas State	64.5	Over
2024	09/07	Texas State	49	UTSA	10	Texas State -2.5	Texas State	58.5	Over
2023	09/09	UTSA	20	Texas State	13	UT San Antonio -13.5	Texas State	66.5	Under
2020	09/12	Texas State	48	UTSA	51	Texas State -6.0	UTSA	56.5	Over
2018	09/22	UTSA	25	Texas State	21	UT San Antonio -7	Texas State	49.0	Under
2017	09/23	Texas State	14	UTSA	44	UT San Antonio -13.5	UTSA	45.0	Over
2012	11/24	UTSA	38	Texas State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTSA	5	2	4 Overs
Texas State	2	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	1 - 5	1 - 4	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 4	5 - 1	1 - 0	4 - 1

(#77) TXST at (#55) UTSA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	UTSA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#77	#55
SP+SP+	#79	#49
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#65
OffenseOff	#48	#53
DefenseDef	#51	#73
Spec TeamsST	#53	#122
TalentTal	#94	#74
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Texas State Injury Report

UTSA Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#48	#73
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#21	#43
SP+SP+	#47	#75
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
Run GameRun	#53	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#96

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#112
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#24
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

UTSA on Offense


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#53	#51
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#51	#91
SP+SP+	#42	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UTSA Run Game


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#40	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#122

UTSA Pass Game


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#106	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UTSA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
UTSA -13.5 (66.5)
UTSA won vs Texas State this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (43-36)
Texas State beat UTSA in 2024 (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5

UTSA's OC Justin Burke (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Frank Harris	218	336	65%	2506	18	8	7.5
Owen McCown (Tr)	43	58	74%	442	4	3	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevorian Barnes	147	715	6	4.9	44
Robert Henry	127	588	11	4.6	43
Rocko Griffin (Tr)	91	483	6	5.3	69
Frank Harris	86	323	4	3.8	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Cephus	89	1151	10	12.9	84
Tykee Ogle-Kellogg	33	575	7	17.4	46
Devin Mccuin	42	546	3	13.0	72
Oscar Cardenas	32	280	2	8.8	28

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ken Robinson	65	2	0	1	4
Jamal Ligon	62	7	1	5	1
Martavius French	61	5	2	4	3
Rashad Wisdom	61	2	2	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Moore	45	18	14	3	3
Brandon Matterson	14	6	5	5	0
Jimmori Robinson	40	11	5	10	2
Nick Booker-Brown	18	7	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameryn Alexander (Tr)	34	2	1	1	15
Nicktroy Fortune	26	1	0	2	9
Ken Robinson	65	2	0	1	4