Texas State at UTSA - 2023 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at UTSA RoadrunnersUTSA logo
Saturday, September 9th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UT San Antonio -13.5 (66.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
UTSA 20 - Texas State: 13

 
Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 33 (32 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: UTSA -8.5   (SP+ UTSA -8)

Projected Score: TXST: 28 - UTSA: 37 (65)
UTSA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
TXST Travel: 47 miles
Roadrunners (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (31 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 24 (36 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#32)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Texas State at Baylor+26.558.5W 42 - 31OY
Sat 9/9 Texas State at UTSA+13.566.5L 13 - 20UY
Sat 9/16 Texas State vs Jackson State-17.561.5W 77 - 34OY
Sat 9/23 Texas State vs Nevada-17.060.0W 35 - 24UN
Sat 9/30 Texas State at Southern Miss-6.560.0W 50 - 36OY
Sat 10/7 Texas State at Louisiana+1.067.5L 30 - 34UN
Sat 10/14 Texas State vs UL Monroe-18.564.5W 21 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Texas State vs Troy+6.553.0L 13 - 31UN
Sat 11/4 Texas State vs Georgia Southern+2.069.0W 45 - 24UY
Sat 11/11 Texas State at Coastal Carolina-2.555.5L 23 - 31UN
Sat 11/18 Texas State at Arkansas State-3.559.5L 31 - 77ON
Sat 11/25 Texas State vs South Alabama+6.557.0W 52 - 44OY
Tue 12/26 Texas State vs Rice-3.558.5W 45 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
UTSA's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 UTSA at Houston-2.559.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 9/9 UTSA vs Texas State-13.566.5W 20 - 13UN
Fri 9/15 UTSA vs Army-7.042.0L 29 - 37ON
Sat 9/23 UTSA at Tennessee+24.059.0L 14 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 UTSA at Temple-14.056.0W 49 - 34OY
Sat 10/14 UTSA vs UAB-9.067.0W 41 - 20UY
Sat 10/21 UTSA at Florida Atlantic-2.558.5W 36 - 10UY
Sat 10/28 UTSA vs East Carolina-17.548.0W 41 - 27ON
Sat 11/4 UTSA at North Texas-7.571.0W 37 - 29UY
Sat 11/11 UTSA vs Rice-13.553.5W 34 - 14UY
Fri 11/17 UTSA vs South Florida-14.565.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/24 UTSA at Tulane+2.551.5L 16 - 29UN
Tue 12/19 UTSA vs Marshall-7.047.0W 35 - 17OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#23 (.29)47% (20)36.746% (36)3.19 (53)18848% (15)2714.55 (19)#64 (.18)40% (45)32.839% (37)42% (77)3.7 (59)681.81.7
UTSA#45 (.23)42% (66)31.941% (89)3 (88)17244% (49)2504.45 (24)#35 (.14)37% (21)24.138% (26)38% (25)3.77 (65)51.21.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
UTSA#61 (.2)40% (100)37% (123)3.03 (70)16943% (61)2833.63 (94)#42 (.13)34% (2)32% (1)36% (16)3.78 (66)81.11.71.6



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.731.546.7%4.551.8244591882714.651%48%46%48%15%.29
UTSA Defense1324.12237.4%3.771.3 - - - - - 47%52%38%38%20%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1332.838.240.4%3.71.7 - - - - - 50%49%39%42%19%.18
UTSA Offense1331.935.742.2%4.451.7234221722504.351%49%41%44%15%.23

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1329:0423.944%66%7.2681.81.77.72.6429.1
UTSA1330:0822.647%58%5.651.21.71.37.63.5129
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1351% (56)46% (36)40.5187.84.633 (8).24 (21)3.19 (53)78% (31)11% (84)1.13 (15)
UTSA Defense1347% (27)38% (26) - - - - .12 (52)2.86 (27)83% (114)12% (14)1.14 (118)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1350% (69)39% (37) - - - - .12 (56)2.87 (28)54% (3)14% (6)1.21 (127)
UTSA Offense1351% (62)41% (89)39.7171.84.327 (29).18 (48)3 (88)81% (14)9% (45)1.13 (13)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1348% (73)48% (15)22.133270.98.212.324 (41)9 (40).36 (36)1.5 (97)32% (63)36% (22).47 (24)4% (8)2 (80)
UTSA Defense1352% (101)38% (25) - - - - - - 10 (67).23 (44)1.6 (70)35% (28)24% (6).18 (13)8% (11)2.4 (130)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1349% (68)42% (77) - - - - - - 11 (53).27 (66)1.7 (109)36% (10)36% (123).42 (113)5% (117)2 (47)
UTSA Offense1349% (72)44% (49)22.334.3249.87.311.225 (37)14 (107).31 (58)1.6 (60)32% (71)35% (27).46 (28)6% (64)2.2 (35)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06   UTSA: 5.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0   UTSA: 4.2




UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 5.32 #55
UTSA's Offense Rating: 18.48 #51
UTSA's Defense Rating: 7.49 #43
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UTSA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40
UTSA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2 #49
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.5
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.2

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UTSA 37
Texas State 28


Total Points: 65

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

UTSA's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06UTSA36Texas State43Texas StateUTSA -4.5Texas State64.5Over
202409/07Texas State49UTSA10Texas StateTexas State -2.5Texas State58.5Over
202309/09UTSA20Texas State13UTSAUT San Antonio -13.5Texas State66.5Under
202009/12Texas State48UTSA51UTSATexas State -6.0UTSA56.5Over
201809/22UTSA25Texas State21UTSAUT San Antonio -7Texas State49.0Under
201709/23Texas State14UTSA44UTSAUT San Antonio -13.5UTSA45.0Over
201211/24UTSA38Texas State31UTSA
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UTSA524 Overs
Texas State242 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 31 - 51 - 40 - 1
Road Teams3 - 45 - 11 - 04 - 1

(#77) Texas State Info
Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20


Texas State has won 1 straight
Texas State has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Texas State Highlights
Texas State has Really Good Running Game (#16)
Texas State offense is efficent (#32)
Texas State offense is good in red zone (#30)
Texas State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Texas State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#41)
Texas State Defensive Line is very good (#119)
Texas State Front 7 is disruptive (#80)

Texas State Deficiencies
Texas State has a bad TO Margin (#54)
Texas State Fumbles a Lot (#89)
Texas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
Texas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Texas State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#123)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUTSATXST
OverallOver#52#37
OffenseOff#49#45
DefenseDef#58#43
Special TeamsST#98#45
PassingPass#57#28
RushingRush#27#38
Run BlockRBLK#64#79
Pass BlockPBLK#90#67
Route RunningWR Rt#24#35
TacklingTkl#83#104
Run DefenseR Def#49#66
Pass Rush DefPRush#21#9
Coverage DefCov#91#39

Rematch from Week 2
UTSA -13.5 (66.5)
UTSA won vs Texas State this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | UTSA
Depth Chart: TXST | UTSA
Rosters: TXST | UTSA
(#55) UTSA Info
Power Rating: 5.32 #55
Offense Rating: 18.48 #51
Defense Rating: 7.49 #43
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40


UTSA has lost 1 straight
Record at home: 5 - 1 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

UTSA Highlights
UTSA offense is explosive (#11)
UTSA offense is good in red zone (#37)
UTSA offense is good on 3rd downs
UTSA Defense Sacks the QB a lot

UTSA has a really good defense (#77)
UTSA has a good run defense (#54)
UTSA has a good pass defense (#101)
UTSA Defensive Line is very good (#19)
UTSA Front 7 is disruptive (#74)
UTSA Secondary is very good (#41)

UTSA Deficiencies
UTSA has a bad TO Margin (#1)
UTSA throws a Lot of Interceptions (#1)
UTSA gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#130)


  
Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley27941467%34392488.3
Malik Hornsby81553%83015.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)2231331106.065
Donerio Davenport9146125.143
Malik Hornsby3522966.531
Jahmyl Jeter4117394.229
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)76895811.883
Ashtyn Hawkins55874315.948
Kole Wilson (Tr)66747811.377
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)20275113.889

View Texas State's Full Roster
Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brian Holloway10516280
Shawn Holton (Tr)920001
Kaleb Culp (Tr)801005
Ben Bell57161060
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Bell57161060
Tavian Coleman (Tr)288410
Deven Wright (Tr)194320
Sam Latham (Tr)156310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)221008
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)323107
Kaleb Culp (Tr)801005

UTSA's OC Justin Burke
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Frank Harris21833665%25061887.5
Owen McCown (Tr)435874%442437.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevorian Barnes14771564.944
Robert Henry127588114.643
Rocko Griffin (Tr)9148365.369
Frank Harris8632343.840
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua Cephus8911511012.984
Tykee Ogle-Kellogg33575717.446
Devin Mccuin42546313.072
Oscar Cardenas3228028.828

View UTSA's Full Roster
UTSA's DC Jess Loepp
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ken Robinson652014
Jamal Ligon627151
Martavius French615243
Rashad Wisdom612204
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Moore45181433
Brandon Matterson146550
Jimmori Robinson40115102
Nick Booker-Brown187313
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameryn Alexander (Tr)3421115
Nicktroy Fortune261029
Ken Robinson652014