Texas State at Southern Miss - 2023 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -6.5 (60.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas State 50 - Southern Miss: 36 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USM is playing their 5th straight game
TXST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -7 (SP+ TXST -11)
Projected Score: TXST: 33 - USM: 26 (57)
TXST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TXST Travel: 520 miles

Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
USM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Southern Miss vs Alcorn State	-24.0	47.5	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Southern Miss at Florida State	+31.0	54.0	L 13 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/16	Southern Miss vs Tulane	+8.0	47.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/23	Southern Miss at Arkansas State	-7.0	46.5	L 37 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	Southern Miss vs Texas State	+6.5	60.0	L 36 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Southern Miss vs Old Dominion	-3.0	56.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+18.5	51.0	L 3 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/28	Southern Miss at App State	+16.0	55.5	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Southern Miss vs UL Monroe	-3.0	56.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Southern Miss at Louisiana	+8.5	51.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Southern Miss at Mississippi State	+18.5	47.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/25	Southern Miss vs Troy	+16.5	48.5	L 17 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	24.5	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
USM	.11	39%	15.3	40%	2.8	142	39%	208	3.69	.1	36%	37.8	37%	37%	3.86	59.5	2	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	33.8	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
USM Defense	13	37.8	33	36.4%	3.86	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	37%	37%	18%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	24.5	24	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
USM Offense	13	15.3	19.5	38.6%	3.69	2	18	349	142	208	3.9	53%	45%	40%	39%	19%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
Southern Miss	13	28:38	17.9	34%	63%	6.7	59.5	2	1.8	7.8	3	3	32.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
USM Defense	13	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.79	74%	13%	1.03

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
USM Offense	13	53%	40%	36.6	141.7	3.9	15	.06	2.8	60%	13%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
USM Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.18	1.7	36%	27%	.21	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
USM Offense	13	45%	39%	14.7	26.6	207.5	7.8	14.1	20	14	.25	1.7	33%	26%	.26	6%	2.2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 Southern Miss: -10.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 Southern Miss: -15.2

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.21 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 408.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 33
Southern Miss 26

Projected Total Points: 57

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Texas State	58	Southern Miss	3	Texas State	Texas State -27.5	Texas State	56.5	Over
2023	09/30	Southern Miss	36	Texas State	50	Texas State	Texas State -6.5	Texas State	60.0	Over
2022	10/22	Texas State	14	Southern Miss	20	Southern Miss	Southern Mississippi -2.5	Southern Miss	43.0	Under
2015	09/19	Texas State	50	Southern Miss	56	Southern Miss	Texas State -2	Southern Miss	67.0	Over
2013	08/31	Southern Miss	15	Texas State	22	Texas State	Southern Mississippi -9.5	Texas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Southern Miss	2	2	3 Overs
Texas State	3	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 4	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 1	4 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 1

(#77) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20

Team Profile

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Texas State Ratings Matchup Southern Miss

Power #77

#119

Off #21

#116

Def #91

#102

Talent #131

#111

SP+ #79

#118

SP+ Off #47

#85

SP+ Def #114

#125

Rematch from Week 5
Texas State 6.5 (60.0)
Texas State won at Southern Miss this year (50-36)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Southern Miss last year (58-3)
Texas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (50-36)
Southern Miss beat Texas State in 2022 (20-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 85°

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | USM
Depth Chart: TXST | USM
Rosters: TXST | USM

(#119) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.21 #119
Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125
Talent Rating: 408.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Team Profile

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Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donerio Davenport	31	107	1	3.5	12
Malik Hornsby	5	86	1	17.2	73
TJ Finley	11	20	0	1.8	8
Joey Hobert (Tr)	3	6	0	2.0	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	70	680	8	9.7	40
Ashtyn Hawkins	45	567	5	12.6	35
Konner Fox (Tr)	14	143	1	10.2	23
Drew Donley (Tr)	1	60	1	60.0	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kenny Haynes	35	2	0	0
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	29	1	0	0
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Kenny Haynes	35	2	0	0
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	29	1	0	0
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3
Ronnie Hamrick II	5	0	0	1

Southern Miss's OC Sam Gregg

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Pittman	1	1	100%	25	0	0	25.0
Holman Edwards (Tr)	0	1	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)	124	604	1	4.9	54
Chandler Pittman	2	7	0	3.5	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)	13	51	0	3.9	19
Chandler Pittman	8	51	0	6.4	25

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

Southern Miss's DC Dan O'Brien

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	41	2	0	1	0
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0
Kristin Booth	10	3	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0
Kristin Booth	10	3	2	2	0
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	41	2	0	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	41	2	0	1	0
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0