Texas State at Southern Miss - 2023 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -6.5 (60.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Texas State 50 - Southern Miss: 36  (Sun Belt)

 
Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 33 (32 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
USM is playing their 5th straight game
TXST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -7   (SP+ TXST -11)

Projected Score: TXST: 34 - USM: 27 (61)
TXST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TXST Travel: 520 miles
Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (22 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Texas State at Baylor+26.558.5W 42 - 31OY
Sat 9/9 Texas State at UTSA+13.566.5L 13 - 20UY
Sat 9/16 Texas State vs Jackson State-17.561.5W 77 - 34OY
Sat 9/23 Texas State vs Nevada-17.060.0W 35 - 24UN
Sat 9/30 Texas State at Southern Miss-6.560.0W 50 - 36OY
Sat 10/7 Texas State at Louisiana+1.067.5L 30 - 34UN
Sat 10/14 Texas State vs UL Monroe-18.564.5W 21 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Texas State vs Troy+6.553.0L 13 - 31UN
Sat 11/4 Texas State vs Georgia Southern+2.069.0W 45 - 24UY
Sat 11/11 Texas State at Coastal Carolina-2.555.5L 23 - 31UN
Sat 11/18 Texas State at Arkansas State-3.559.5L 31 - 77ON
Sat 11/25 Texas State vs South Alabama+6.557.0W 52 - 44OY
Tue 12/26 Texas State vs Rice-3.558.5W 45 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Southern Miss vs Alcorn State-24.047.5W 40 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Southern Miss at Florida State+31.054.0L 13 - 66ON
Sat 9/16 Southern Miss vs Tulane+8.047.5L 3 - 21UN
Sat 9/23 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-7.046.5L 37 - 44ON
Sat 9/30 Southern Miss vs Texas State+6.560.0L 36 - 50ON
Sat 10/7 Southern Miss vs Old Dominion-3.056.5L 13 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17 Southern Miss at South Alabama+18.551.0L 3 - 55ON
Sat 10/28 Southern Miss at App State+16.055.5L 38 - 48OY
Sat 11/4 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-3.056.0W 24 - 7UY
Thu 11/9 Southern Miss at Louisiana+8.551.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 11/18 Southern Miss at Mississippi State+18.547.5L 20 - 41ON
Sat 11/25 Southern Miss vs Troy+16.548.5L 17 - 35ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#23 (.29)47% (20)36.746% (36)3.19 (53)18848% (15)2714.55 (19)#64 (.18)40% (45)32.839% (37)42% (77)3.7 (59)681.81.7
USM#109 (.12)37% (121)23.240% (106)2.89 (107)16334% (126)1913.07 (121)#105 (.24)42% (69)35.841% (49)45% (109)4.15 (103)48.21.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.731.546.7%4.551.8244591882714.651%48%46%48%15%.29
USM Defense1235.82442.2%4.151.4 - - - - - 53%46%41%45%16%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1332.838.240.4%3.71.7 - - - - - 50%49%39%42%19%.18
USM Offense1223.222.236.7%3.071.320354163191453%46%40%34%20%.12

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1329:0423.944%66%7.2681.81.77.72.6429.1
Southern Miss1233:1520.338%44%6.348.21.31.44.52.1228
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1351% (56)46% (36)40.5187.84.633 (8).24 (21)3.19 (53)78% (31)11% (84)1.13 (15)
USM Defense1253% (106)41% (49) - - - - .22 (109)3.21 (94)67% (30)10% (76)1.24 (129)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1350% (69)39% (37) - - - - .12 (56)2.87 (28)54% (3)14% (6)1.21 (127)
USM Offense1253% (41)40% (106)40.5163.4416 (89).13 (80)2.89 (107)67% (109)12% (109)1.11 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1348% (73)48% (15)22.133270.98.212.324 (41)9 (40).36 (36)1.5 (97)32% (63)36% (22).47 (24)4% (8)2 (80)
USM Defense1246% (27)45% (109) - - - - - - 9 (87).32 (101)1.7 (101)31% (93)33% (103).4 (106)6% (63)2.3 (123)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1349% (68)42% (77) - - - - - - 11 (53).27 (66)1.7 (109)36% (10)36% (123).42 (113)5% (117)2 (47)
USM Offense1246% (92)34% (126)15.730.4190.76.312.215 (96)8 (30).14 (114)1.7 (26)36% (126)28% (87).34 (67)8% (117)2.1 (49)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06   Southern Miss: -10.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0   Southern Miss: -15.2




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.21 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.5
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.2

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 34
Southern Miss 27


Total Points: 61

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.2
Defense: 35.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Texas State58Southern Miss3Texas StateTexas State -27.5Texas State56.5Over
202309/30Southern Miss36Texas State50Texas StateTexas State -6.5Texas State60.0Over
202210/22Texas State14Southern Miss20Southern MissSouthern Mississippi -2.5Southern Miss43.0Under
201509/19Texas State50Southern Miss56Southern MissTexas State -2Southern Miss67.0Over
201308/31Southern Miss15Texas State22Texas StateSouthern Mississippi -9.5Texas State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss223 Overs
Texas State331 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 41 - 41 - 20 - 2
Road Teams4 - 14 - 12 - 02 - 1

(#77) Texas State Info
Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20


Texas State has won 2 straight
Texas State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Texas State Highlights
Texas State has Really Good Running Game (#16)
Texas State offense is efficent (#32)
Texas State offense is good in red zone (#30)
Texas State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Texas State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#41)
Texas State Defensive Line is very good (#119)
Texas State Front 7 is disruptive (#80)

Texas State Deficiencies
Texas State has a bad TO Margin (#54)
Texas State Fumbles a Lot (#89)
Texas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
Texas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Texas State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#123)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSMTXST
OverallOver#102#37
OffenseOff#102#45
DefenseDef#81#43
Special TeamsST#86#45
PassingPass#103#28
RushingRush#39#38
Run BlockRBLK#89#79
Pass BlockPBLK#101#67
Route RunningWR Rt#94#35
TacklingTkl#107#104
Run DefenseR Def#41#66
Pass Rush DefPRush#45#9
Coverage DefCov#114#39

Rematch from Week 5
Texas State 6.5 (60.0)
Texas State won at Southern Miss this year (50-36)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Southern Miss last year (58-3)
Texas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (50-36)
Southern Miss beat Texas State in 2022 (20-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | USM
Depth Chart: TXST | USM
Rosters: TXST | USM
(#119) Southern Miss Info
Power Rating: -10.21 #119
Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90


Southern Miss has lost 3 straight
Southern Miss has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Southern Miss Highlights
Southern Miss offense is explosive (#57)

Southern Miss Deficiencies
Southern Miss offense is really bad (#78)
Southern Miss Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#90)
Southern Miss offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#81)
Southern Miss run game is really bad (#99)
Southern Miss pass game is really bad (#56)
Southern Miss Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Southern Miss gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#78)
Southern Miss has a bad red zone defense (#64)


  
Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley27941467%34392488.3
Malik Hornsby81553%83015.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)2231331106.065
Donerio Davenport9146125.143
Malik Hornsby3522966.531
Jahmyl Jeter4117394.229
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)76895811.883
Ashtyn Hawkins55874315.948
Kole Wilson (Tr)66747811.377
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)20275113.889

View Texas State's Full Roster
Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brian Holloway10516280
Shawn Holton (Tr)920001
Kaleb Culp (Tr)801005
Ben Bell57161060
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Bell57161060
Tavian Coleman (Tr)288410
Deven Wright (Tr)194320
Sam Latham (Tr)156310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)221008
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)323107
Kaleb Culp (Tr)801005

Southern Miss's OC Sam Gregg
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Wiles (Tr)15829055%19161176.6
Ethan Crawford193850%246306.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Frank Gore Jr.2311131104.975
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)7642925.659
Kenyon Clay4017914.528
Ethan Crawford429612.316
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jakarius Caston33621618.880
Latreal Jones36498313.843
Tiaquelin Mims39445211.437
Frank Gore Jr.2722138.233

View Southern Miss's Full Roster
Southern Miss's DC Dan O'Brien
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)721101
Jay Stanley552005
Hayes Maples511130
Swayze Bozeman514103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalil Clemons2610661
Josh Ratcliff284400
Averie Habas133310
Ja'Len Sims283220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Stanley552005
Markel McLaurin313205
MJ Daniels (Tr)260004