South Alabama at Texas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
South Alabama -6.5 (57.0) (-220) Open: -5.0 | 58.0
Texas State 52 - South Alabama: 44 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kane Wommack (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#21)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST is playing their 5th straight game
USA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -4 (SP+ USA -7)
Projected Score: USA: 32 - TXST: 28 (60)
USA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
USA Travel: 592 miles

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Alabama at Tulane	+6.0	51.0	L 17 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/9	South Alabama vs SE Louisiana	-24.0	59.5	W 35 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Alabama at Oklahoma State	+7.0	49.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Alabama vs Central Michigan	-16.5	46.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	South Alabama at James Madison	+1.0	48.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/7	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-11.0	51.5	W 55 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	-18.5	51.0	W 55 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/28	South Alabama vs Louisiana	-11.5	55.0	L 20 - 33	U	N
Thu 11/2	South Alabama at Troy	+5.5	44.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-14.5	54.5	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/18	South Alabama vs Marshall	-10.5	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	South Alabama at Texas State	-6.5	57.0	L 44 - 52	O	N
Sat 12/23	South Alabama at Eastern Michigan	-18.0	43.0	W 59 - 10	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	.22	42%	26.5	40%	3.06	155	45%	269	4.14	.11	38%	30.4	40%	37%	3.16	70.4	1.2	1.8
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	29	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	26.5	25.2	42%	4.14	1.2	22	424	155	269	4	51%	48%	40%	45%	13%	.22
TXST Defense	12	29	28.3	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	30.4	32	37.7%	3.16	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	40%	37%	17%	.11
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	32:42	22.2	43%	59%	7.7	70.4	1.2	1.8	6.2	2.2	3	29.6
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	51%	40%	38.8	155.3	4	19	.16	3.06	78%	7%	1.02
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.98	78%	11%	0.87
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	48%	45%	22.4	34.4	268.9	7.8	12	28	12	.33	1.6	31%	30%	.3	5%	2
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	58%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.18	1.6	36%	22%	.14	6%	2
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: 3.95 #41
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 19.51 #39
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 6.19 #32
2023 Talent Rating: 545.68 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
South Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.30 - 3.70
South Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #50
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #68

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 3.95 Texas State: -0.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 3.0 Texas State: -4.0

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -0.53 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 484.79 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 32
Texas State 28

Projected Total Points: 60

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Texas State	49	South Alabama	26	Texas State -9.5	Texas State	62.5	Over
2024	11/29	South Alabama	38	Texas State	45	Texas State -2.5	Texas State	60.5	Over
2023	11/25	Texas State	52	South Alabama	44	South Alabama -6.5	Texas State	57.0	Over
2022	11/12	South Alabama	38	Texas State	21	South Alabama -16	South Alabama	46.0	Over
2021	10/09	Texas State	33	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -4	Texas State	52.5	Over
2020	10/17	South Alabama	30	Texas State	20	South Alabama -4.5	South Alabama	57.5	Under
2019	11/09	Texas State	30	South Alabama	28	Texas State -7	South Alabama	41.0	Over
2018	09/15	South Alabama	41	Texas State	31	South Alabama -10	Push	49.0	Over
2015	10/24	Texas State	36	South Alabama	18	Texas State -5	Texas State	63.0	Under
2014	11/15	South Alabama	24	Texas State	20	South Alabama -4	Push	0
2013	10/26	Texas State	33	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -1	Texas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	7	6	7 Overs
South Alabama	4	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 1	7 - 2	4 - 1	3 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 10	2 - 7	1 - 3	1 - 4

(#41) USA at (#77) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#41	#77
SP+SP+	#55	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#34	#45
OffenseOff	#39	#48
DefenseDef	#30	#51
Spec TeamsST	#86	#53
TalentTal	#81	#94
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

South Alabama Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#51
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#39	#91
SP+SP+	#50	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#5	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#58	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#122

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#83	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#110	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#48	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#21	#32
SP+SP+	#47	#68
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#53	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#108

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#69
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
South Alabama 6.5 (57.0)
Texas State won vs South Alabama this year (52-44)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat South Alabama last year (49-26)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2024 (45-38)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2023 (52-44)

USA's OC Major Applewhite (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carter Bradley	221	326	68%	2660	19	7	8.2
Giovanni Lopez	41	61	67%	475	4	2	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
La'Damian Webb	186	1007	16	5.4	65
Kentrel Bullock (Tr)	83	448	4	5.4	34
Braylon McReynolds	46	232	0	5.0	35
Marco Lee	53	220	2	4.2	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caullin Lacy	91	1316	7	14.5	84
Jamaal Pritchett	57	883	8	15.5	51
Damarcus Thomas	27	235	5	8.7	33
Javon Ivory (Tr)	20	234	1	11.7	39

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Corey Batoon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quentin Wilfawn	83	16	6	5	1
Trey Kiser	67	10	4	1	2
James Miller	67	4	0	1	0
Jaden Voisin	66	2	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quentin Wilfawn	83	16	6	5	1
Trey Kiser	67	10	4	1	2
Jamie Sheriff	45	9	3	12	0
Brock Higdon	18	4	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rickey Fletcher	38	1	0	1	11
Jaden Voisin	66	2	0	0	6
Yamarus Banks	45	6	1	3	3

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5