North Texas at SMU - 2023 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo North Texas Mean Green at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Friday, November 10th 2023 (9:00 PM EST)
SMU -21.5 (67.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
SMU 45 - North Texas: 21  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Eric Morris (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 35 - 37 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SMU is playing their 5th straight game
UNT is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: SMU -19.5   (SP+ SMU -18)

Projected Score: UNT: 23 - SMU: 43 (66)
SMU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
UNT Travel: 33 miles
Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 39 - 18 (52 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Texas vs California+5.053.5L 21 - 58ON
Sat 9/9 North Texas at Florida International-10.551.5L 39 - 46ON
Sat 9/16 North Texas at Louisiana Tech+4.566.5W 40 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 North Texas vs Abilene Christian-15.570.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 10/7 North Texas at Navy+6.560.5L 24 - 27UY
Sat 10/14 North Texas vs Temple-8.065.5W 45 - 14UY
Sat 10/21 North Texas at Tulane+20.063.5L 28 - 35UY
Sat 10/28 North Texas vs Memphis+6.570.0L 42 - 45OY
Sat 11/4 North Texas vs UTSA+7.571.0L 29 - 37UN
Fri 11/10 North Texas at SMU+21.567.5L 21 - 45UN
Sat 11/18 North Texas at Tulsa-1.569.5W 35 - 28UY
Sat 11/25 North Texas vs UAB-3.072.5W 45 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
SMU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 SMU vs Louisiana Tech-21.066.0W 38 - 14UY
Sat 9/9 SMU at Oklahoma+16.568.5L 11 - 28UN
Sat 9/16 SMU vs Prairie View A&M-42.563.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/23 SMU at TCU+7.063.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/30 SMU vs Charlotte-22.553.0W 34 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12 SMU at East Carolina-11.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Fri 10/20 SMU at Temple-24.053.0W 55 - 0OY
Sat 10/28 SMU vs Tulsa-20.555.0W 69 - 10OY
Sat 11/4 SMU at Rice-12.059.5W 36 - 31ON
Fri 11/10 SMU vs North Texas-21.567.5W 45 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 SMU at Memphis-9.564.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 11/25 SMU vs Navy-20.046.0W 59 - 14OY
Sat 12/2 SMU at Tulane+4.050.5W 26 - 14UY
Thu 12/28 SMU vs Boston College-13.549.0L 14 - 23UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#28 (.28)45% (42)34.546% (37)3.4 (12)19144% (42)3054.42 (28)#132 (.34)48% (131)37.151% (129)46% (120)4.77 (130)46.61.61.2
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)38.747% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)17.837% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1234.531.244.7%4.421.6254961913055.145%54%46%44%17%.28
SMU Defense1417.812.535.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1237.136.348.5%4.771.2 - - - - - 60%39%51%46%11%.34
SMU Offense1438.752.343.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1229:1224.842%60%4.846.61.61.241.4027.6
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1245% (105)46% (37)37.4191.25.119 (69).3 (7)3.4 (12)78% (28)10% (71)1.22 (1)
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1260% (133)51% (129) - - - - .36 (132)3.49 (129)74% (77)7% (133)1.15 (120)
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1254% (29)44% (42)23.738.6304.87.912.933 (11)9 (40).3 (63)1.7 (43)33% (89)35% (26).49 (20)7% (96)2.3 (11)
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1239% (1)46% (120) - - - - - - 10 (67).38 (115)1.6 (62)25% (132)34% (116).44 (120)5% (118)2.1 (68)
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.19 #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 21.84 #27
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.31 #131
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
North Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
North Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #30
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6 #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -5.19   SMU: 13.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -7.2   SMU: 10.5




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.305 #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 34.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 37.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

North Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 43
North Texas 23


Total Points: 66

SMU Scoring
Offense: 38.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52.3
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.5

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/10SMU45North Texas21SMUSMU -21.5SMU67.5Under
202209/03North Texas10SMU48SMUSMU -9.5SMU67.5Under
202109/11SMU35North Texas12SMUSMU -22.5SMU75.5Under
202009/19North Texas35SMU65SMUSMU -15SMU71.5Over
201909/07SMU49North Texas27SMUSMU -3.5SMU72.5Over
201809/01North Texas46SMU23North TexasNorth Texas -3.5North Texas70.5Under
201709/09SMU54North Texas32SMUSMU -13SMU64.5Over
201609/03North Texas21SMU34SMUSMU -12SMU68.0Under
201509/12SMU31North Texas13SMUSMU -6SMU60.0Under
201409/06North Texas43SMU6North TexasNorth Texas -4North Texas0
200709/08SMU45North Texas31SMU
200609/09North Texas24SMU6North Texas
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU983 Overs
North Texas326 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 37 - 37 - 00 - 3
Road Teams3 - 93 - 73 - 00 - 7

(#90) North Texas Info
Power Rating: -5.19 #90
Offense Rating: 21.84 #27
Defense Rating: 19.31 #131
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #30
Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6 #133
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10


North Texas has lost 3 straight
North Texas has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

North Texas Highlights
North Texas offense is explosive (#20)
North Texas has a top Offensive Line (#28)
North Texas offense is good in red zone (#6)
North Texas commits very few Penalties (#59)

North Texas Deficiencies
North Texas Fumbles a Lot (#42)
North Texas Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
North Texas does not Sack the QB (#47)
North Texas has a bad defense (#26)
North Texas Does Not Stuff Runs (#82)
North Texas has a bad defensive line (#38)
North Texas has a bad red zone defense (#23)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSMUUNT
OverallOver#6#48
OffenseOff#10#32
DefenseDef#8#85
Special TeamsST#45#19
PassingPass#4#11
RushingRush#75#35
Run BlockRBLK#6#36
Pass BlockPBLK#14#87
Route RunningWR Rt#23#49
TacklingTkl#42#88
Run DefenseR Def#23#98
Pass Rush DefPRush#3#68
Coverage DefCov#11#82

Rematch from Week 11
SMU -21.5 (67.5)
SMU won vs North Texas this year (45-21)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat North Texas in 2023 (45-21)
SMU beat North Texas in 2022 (48-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNT | SMU
Depth Chart: UNT | SMU
Rosters: UNT | SMU
(#19) SMU Info
Power Rating: 13.305 #19
Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10


SMU has won 5 straight
SMU has won 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 0 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

SMU Highlights
SMU is Undefeated at Home

SMU has Really Good Running Game (#66)
SMU offense is explosive (#37)
SMU offense is good in red zone (#80)
SMU Defense Sacks the QB a lot

SMU has a really good defense (#109)
SMU has a good run defense (#62)
SMU has a good pass defense (#127)
SMU Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#28)
SMU Front 7 is disruptive (#88)
SMU Secondary is very good (#8)
SMU has a great TO Margin (#116)

SMU Deficiencies


  
North Texas's OC Jordan Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Rogers (Tr)26242262%33832958.0
Stone Earle224055%274446.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ayo Adeyi143101767.147
Oscar Adaway III12373866.077
Isaiah Johnson3722936.228
Chandler Rogers (Tr)10918041.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jay Maclin5710041117.680
Damon Ward Jr.39487512.559
Roderic Burns41467411.442
Trey Cleveland (Tr)27415315.433

View North Texas's Full Roster
North Texas's DC Matt Caponi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Patrick Smith700001
Ethan Wesloski597220
Logan Wilson531003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Mazin Richards44113100
Kevin Wood373211
Kadron Johnson52220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ridge Texada333027
Evan Jackson270003
Brian Nelson II60003

SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Preston Stone20634460%31972869.3
Kevin Jennings6110558%618525.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)13674575.595
LJ Johnson Jr.10957645.367
Camar Wheaton8341054.948
Preston Stone6219843.234
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jake Bailey42528012.634
R.J. Maryland34518715.262
Kelvontay Dixon25441417.652
Romello Brinson (Tr)28431215.474

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)733141
Isaiah Nwokobia565123
Ahmad Walker (Tr)556104
Jonathan McGill (Tr)465108
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)3713972
Isaiah Smith246540
Elijah Chatman318530
Nelson Paul227511
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Woods (Tr)2710011
Jonathan McGill (Tr)465108
Chris Megginson (Tr)180006