North Texas at SMU - 2023 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo North Texas Mean Green at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Friday, November 10th 2023 (9:00 PM EST)
SMU -21.5 (67.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
SMU 45 - North Texas: 21  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Eric Morris (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 35 - 37 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SMU is playing their 5th straight game
UNT is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: SMU -19.5  (SP+ SMU -18)
Projected Score: UNT: 24 - SMU: 43 (67)
SMU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
UNT Travel: 33 miles
Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 39 - 18 (52 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Texas vs California+5.053.5L 21 - 58ON
Sat 9/9 North Texas at Florida International-10.551.5L 39 - 46ON
Sat 9/16 North Texas at Louisiana Tech+4.566.5W 40 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 North Texas vs Abilene Christian-15.570.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 10/7 North Texas at Navy+6.560.5L 24 - 27UY
Sat 10/14 North Texas vs Temple-8.065.5W 45 - 14UY
Sat 10/21 North Texas at Tulane+20.063.5L 28 - 35UY
Sat 10/28 North Texas vs Memphis+6.570.0L 42 - 45OY
Sat 11/4 North Texas vs UTSA+7.571.0L 29 - 37UN
Fri 11/10 North Texas at SMU+21.567.5L 21 - 45UN
Sat 11/18 North Texas at Tulsa-1.569.5W 35 - 28UY
Sat 11/25 North Texas vs UAB-3.072.5W 45 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
SMU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 SMU vs Louisiana Tech-21.066.0W 38 - 14UY
Sat 9/9 SMU at Oklahoma+16.568.5L 11 - 28UN
Sat 9/16 SMU vs Prairie View A&M-42.563.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/23 SMU at TCU+7.063.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/30 SMU vs Charlotte-22.553.0W 34 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12 SMU at East Carolina-11.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Fri 10/20 SMU at Temple-24.053.0W 55 - 0OY
Sat 10/28 SMU vs Tulsa-20.555.0W 69 - 10OY
Sat 11/4 SMU at Rice-12.059.5W 36 - 31ON
Fri 11/10 SMU vs North Texas-21.567.5W 45 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 SMU at Memphis-9.564.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 11/25 SMU vs Navy-20.046.0W 59 - 14OY
Sat 12/2 SMU at Tulane+4.050.5W 26 - 14UY
Thu 12/28 SMU vs Boston College-13.549.0L 14 - 23UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#28 (.28)45% (42)34.546% (37)3.4 (12)19144% (42)3054.42 (28)#132 (.34)48% (131)37.151% (129)46% (120)4.77 (130)46.61.61.2
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)38.747% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)17.837% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1234.531.244.7%4.421.6254961913055.145%54%46%44%17%.28
SMU Defense1417.812.535.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1237.136.348.5%4.771.2 - - - - - 60%39%51%46%11%.34
SMU Offense1438.752.343.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1229:1224.842%60%4.846.61.61.241.4027.6
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1245% (105)46% (37)37.4191.25.119 (69).3 (7)3.4 (12)78% (28)10% (71)1.22 (1)
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1260% (133)51% (129) - - - - .36 (132)3.49 (129)74% (77)7% (133)1.15 (120)
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1254% (29)44% (42)23.738.6304.87.912.933 (11)9 (40).3 (63)1.7 (43)33% (89)35% (26).49 (20)7% (96)2.3 (11)
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1239% (1)46% (120) - - - - - - 10 (67).38 (115)1.6 (62)25% (132)34% (116).44 (120)5% (118)2.1 (68)
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.19  #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 21.84  #27
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.31  #131
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
North Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
North Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #88
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #30
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6  #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -5.19   SMU: 13.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -7.2   SMU: 10.5




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.305  #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10  #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02  #10
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5  #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6  #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 34.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 37.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

North Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 43
North Texas 24

Total Points: 67

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 46
North Texas 22

Total Points: 68

Based on Entire Season
SMU 41
North Texas 24

Total Points: 65
SMU Scoring
Offense: 38.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52.3
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.5

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/10SMU45North Texas21SMU -21.5SMU67.5Under
202209/03North Texas10SMU48SMU -9.5SMU67.5Under
202109/11SMU35North Texas12SMU -22.5SMU75.5Under
202009/19North Texas35SMU65SMU -15SMU71.5Over
201909/07SMU49North Texas27SMU -3.5SMU72.5Over
201809/01North Texas46SMU23North Texas -3.5North Texas70.5Under
201709/09SMU54North Texas32SMU -13SMU64.5Over
201609/03North Texas21SMU34SMU -12SMU68.0Under
201509/12SMU31North Texas13SMU -6SMU60.0Under
201409/06North Texas43SMU6North Texas -4North Texas0
200709/08SMU45North Texas31
200609/09North Texas24SMU6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU983 Overs
North Texas326 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 37 - 37 - 00 - 3
Road Teams3 - 93 - 73 - 00 - 7

(#90) UNT at (#19) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTSMU
Power RatePwr #90 #19
SP+SP+ #88 #25
Perf GradeGrade #59 #7
OffenseOff #35 #10
DefenseDef #112 #11
Spec TeamsST #19 #53
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #66
North Texas on Offense
CategoryCat
UNT OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #11
SuccessSuc #42 #10
ExplosiveExp #5 #86
PPAPPA #28 #7
PowerPwr #27 #10
SP+SP+ #30 #41
Pts POPPO #28 #51
HavocHav #86 #14
North Texas Run Game
CategoryCat
UNT OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #50 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #17
Run ExplRExp #1 #50
PPAExp #7 #19
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #35
Stuff RateStuff #60 #27
TackleTak -  #47
North Texas Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNT OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #12 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #42 #8
Pass ExplPExl #43 #87
PPAExp #63 #8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #103 #4
F7 HavocF7 #71 #23
DB HavocDB #96 #19
SMU on Offense
CategoryCatSMU OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #10 #112
SuccessSuc #46 #131
ExplosiveExp #15 #81
PPAPPA #24 #132
PowerPwr #26 #131
SP+SP+ #18 #133
Pts POPPO #21 #130
HavocHav #8 #132
SMU Run Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #106 #116
Run SuccessRSuc #30 #129
Run ExplRExp #122 #120
PPAExp #52 #132
Run BlockR Blk #6 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #129
Stuff RateStuff #38 #107
TackleTak -  #102
SMU Pass Game
CategoryCatSMU OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #4 #101
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #120
Pass ExplPExl #3 #62
PPAExp #16 #115
Pass Block/RushP Blk #16 #86
F7 HavocF7 #4 #133
DB HavocDB #58 #118
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 59°
Rematch from Week 11
SMU -21.5 (67.5)
SMU won vs North Texas this year (45-21)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat North Texas in 2023 (45-21)
SMU beat North Texas in 2022 (48-10)

  
UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Rogers (Tr)26242262%33832958.0
Stone Earle224055%274446.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ayo Adeyi143101767.147
Oscar Adaway III12373866.077
Isaiah Johnson3722936.228
Chandler Rogers (Tr)10918041.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jay Maclin5710041117.680
Damon Ward Jr.39487512.559
Roderic Burns41467411.442
Trey Cleveland (Tr)27415315.433

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Patrick Smith700001
Ethan Wesloski597220
Logan Wilson531003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Mazin Richards44113100
Kevin Wood373211
Kadron Johnson52220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ridge Texada333027
Evan Jackson270003
Brian Nelson II60003

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Preston Stone20634460%31972869.3
Kevin Jennings6110558%618525.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)13674575.595
LJ Johnson Jr.10957645.367
Camar Wheaton8341054.948
Preston Stone6219843.234
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jake Bailey42528012.634
R.J. Maryland34518715.262
Kelvontay Dixon25441417.652
Romello Brinson (Tr)28431215.474

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)733141
Isaiah Nwokobia565123
Ahmad Walker (Tr)556104
Jonathan McGill (Tr)465108
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)3713972
Isaiah Smith246540
Elijah Chatman318530
Nelson Paul227511
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Woods (Tr)2710011
Jonathan McGill (Tr)465108
Chris Megginson (Tr)180006