North Texas at Tulsa - 2023 Matchup Preview

North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
North Texas -1.5 (69.5) (0) Open: 0.0
North Texas 35 - Tulsa: 28 (American Athletic)

Mean Green (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Eric Morris (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 35 - 37 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNT 2nd straight Road Game
TLSA is playing their 5th straight game
UNT is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -2.5 (SP+ UNT -7)
Projected Score: UNT: 35 - TLSA: 32 (67)
UNT Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UNT Travel: 215 miles

Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kevin Wilson (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (29 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNT Players
TLSA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Texas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Texas vs California	+5.0	53.5	L 21 - 58	O	N
Sat 9/9	North Texas at Florida International	-10.5	51.5	L 39 - 46	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Texas at Louisiana Tech	+4.5	66.5	W 40 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	North Texas vs Abilene Christian	-15.5	70.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/7	North Texas at Navy	+6.5	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Texas vs Temple	-8.0	65.5	W 45 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	North Texas at Tulane	+20.0	63.5	L 28 - 35	U	Y
Sat 10/28	North Texas vs Memphis	+6.5	70.0	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/4	North Texas vs UTSA	+7.5	71.0	L 29 - 37	U	N
Fri 11/10	North Texas at SMU	+21.5	67.5	L 21 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/18	North Texas at Tulsa	-1.5	69.5	W 35 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	North Texas vs UAB	-3.0	72.5	W 45 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Tulsa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Tulsa vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-41.0	52.5	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Tulsa at Washington	+34.0	66.5	L 10 - 43	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Tulsa vs Oklahoma	+28.0	58.5	L 17 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/23	Tulsa at Northern Illinois	+3.5	54.5	W 22 - 14	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Tulsa vs Temple	-3.0	56.0	W 48 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Tulsa at Florida Atlantic	+3.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19	Tulsa vs Rice	-3.0	56.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/28	Tulsa at SMU	+20.5	55.0	L 10 - 69	O	N
Sat 11/4	Tulsa vs Charlotte	-4.5	47.5	L 26 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/11	Tulsa at Tulane	+24.5	52.5	L 22 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Tulsa vs North Texas	+1.5	69.5	L 28 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/25	Tulsa at East Carolina	+4.5	44.5	W 29 - 27	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	34.5	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	37.1	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2
TLSA	#77 (.18)	41% (83)	23.4	40% (99)	3.16 (59)	181	44% (50)	205	4.23 (34)	#120 (.29)	44% (96)	33.8	43% (67)	46% (121)	3.95 (82)	43.3	2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)		40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)		47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1
TLSA	#124 (.06)	34% (131)		35% (128)	2.88 (97)	151	33% (126)	239	3.54 (100)	#127 (.31)	42% (75)		38% (23)	46% (115)	4.7 (130)	51	1.9	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Offense	12	34.5	31.2	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28
TLSA Defense	12	33.8	34.8	43.9%	3.95	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	43%	46%	14%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Defense	12	37.1	36.3	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34
TLSA Offense	12	23.4	28.5	41%	4.23	2	20	386	181	205	4.1	57%	41%	40%	44%	17%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6
Tulsa	12	29:42	19.8	45%	44%	5.1	43.3	2	1.7	5.4	1.8	0	28.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)
TLSA Defense	12	47% (37)	43% (67)	-	-	-	-	.21 (107)	3.18 (89)	67% (30)	10% (74)	1.13 (115)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)
TLSA Offense	12	57% (16)	40% (99)	43.9	180.9	4.1	13 (108)	.1 (96)	3.16 (59)	79% (27)	11% (87)	0.88 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)
TLSA Defense	12	51% (89)	46% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.43 (124)	1.7 (100)	30% (103)	29% (43)	.41 (111)	5% (113)	2.6 (133)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)
TLSA Offense	12	41% (118)	44% (50)	15.8	27.8	204.7	7.4	12.9	20 (70)	19 (131)	.36 (37)	1.8 (13)	34% (95)	32% (57)	.33 (68)	6% (73)	2.1 (66)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.19 #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 21.84 #27
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.31 #131
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
North Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
North Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #30
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6 #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -5.19 Tulsa: -8.775

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -7.2 Tulsa: -14.2

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -8.775 #111
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 13.36 #105
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Tulsa's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Tulsa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.2 #115
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #100
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 34.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 37.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

North Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
North Texas 35
Tulsa 32

Total Points: 67

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 34
Tulsa 29

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 34
Tulsa 31

Total Points: 65

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.5
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

Tulsa's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	North Texas	52	Tulsa	20	North Texas -7	North Texas	65.5	Over
2023	11/18	Tulsa	28	North Texas	35	North Texas -1.5	North Texas	69.5	Under
2013	11/30	Tulsa	10	North Texas	42	North Texas -3	North Texas	0
2011	10/01	Tulsa	41	North Texas	24
2008	09/06	North Texas	26	Tulsa	56
2006	09/16	Tulsa	28	North Texas	3
2005	09/17	North Texas	2	Tulsa	54

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Tulsa	4	0	1 Overs
North Texas	3	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	1 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 3	2 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 1

(#90) UNT at (#111) TLSA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNT	TLSA
Power RatePwr	#90	#111
SP+SP+	#88	#115
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#95
OffenseOff	#35	#51
DefenseDef	#112	#124
Spec TeamsST	#19	#133
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

North Texas Injury Report

Tulsa Injury Report

North Texas on Offense


CategoryCat	UNT Off	TLSA Def
Perf GradePerf	#35	#124
SuccessSuc	#42	#96
ExplosiveExp	#5	#123
PPAPPA	#28	#120
PowerPwr	#27	#105
SP+SP+	#30	#117
Pts POPPO	#28	#82
HavocHav	#86	#108

North Texas Run Game


CategoryCat	UNT Off	TLSA Def
Run GameRun	#50	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#67
Run ExplRExp	#1	#115
PPAExp	#7	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#69
TackleTak	-	#132

North Texas Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNT Off	TLSA Def
Pass GamePass	#12	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	#42	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#100
PPAExp	#63	#124
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#103	#18
F7 HavocF7	#71	#74
DB HavocDB	#96	#113

Tulsa on Offense


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	UNT Def
Perf GradePerf	#51	#112
SuccessSuc	#83	#131
ExplosiveExp	#77	#81
PPAPPA	#77	#132
PowerPwr	#70	#131
SP+SP+	#100	#133
Pts POPPO	#34	#130
HavocHav	#87	#132

Tulsa Run Game


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#63	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#99	#129
Run ExplRExp	#120	#120
PPAExp	#96	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#59	#129
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#107
TackleTak	-	#102

Tulsa Pass Game


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#101
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#13	#62
PPAExp	#37	#115
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#50	#86
F7 HavocF7	#87	#133
DB HavocDB	#73	#118

Program Comparison
TLSA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in at H. A. Chapman Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 68°

Rematch from Week 12
North Texas 1.5 (69.5)
North Texas won at Tulsa this year (35-28)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Tulsa last year (52-20)
North Texas beat Tulsa in 2023 (35-28)

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Rogers (Tr)	262	422	62%	3383	29	5	8.0
Stone Earle	22	40	55%	274	4	4	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ayo Adeyi	143	1017	6	7.1	47
Oscar Adaway III	123	738	6	6.0	77
Isaiah Johnson	37	229	3	6.2	28
Chandler Rogers (Tr)	109	180	4	1.7	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jay Maclin	57	1004	11	17.6	80
Damon Ward Jr.	39	487	5	12.5	59
Roderic Burns	41	467	4	11.4	42
Trey Cleveland (Tr)	27	415	3	15.4	33

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Brown	77	5	4	5	0
Patrick Smith	70	0	0	0	1
Ethan Wesloski	59	7	2	2	0
Logan Wilson	53	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Brown	77	5	4	5	0
Mazin Richards	44	11	3	10	0
Kevin Wood	37	3	2	1	1
Kadron Johnson	5	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	33	3	2	7
Evan Jackson	27	0	0	3
Brian Nelson II	6	0	0	3

TLSA's OC Steve Spurrier Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cardell Williams	79	132	60%	1149	10	7	8.7
Kirk Francis	68	121	56%	967	6	3	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Watkins	197	889	4	4.5	46
Bill Jackson	91	414	1	4.5	38
Jordan Ford	78	294	1	3.8	22
Cardell Williams	57	200	5	3.5	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kamdyn Benjamin	47	727	6	15.5	51
Carl Chester	22	401	1	18.2	57
Devan Williams	29	399	2	13.8	42
Marquis Shoulders	16	283	5	17.7	80

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Chris Polizzi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendarin Ray (Tr)	131	4	0	1	1
Julien Simon (Tr)	58	10	3	1	2
Dayne Hodge	56	2	0	0	0
Ben Kopenski	52	14	9	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ben Kopenski	52	14	9	4	0
Owen Ostroski	31	10	4	3	0
Julien Simon (Tr)	58	10	3	1	2
Mitchell Kulkin	39	3	2	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaise Oliver	48	2	6
Xavier Lanier	15	0	4
Nunu Campbell	23	0	3