SMU at TCU - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
TCU -7 (63.5) (0) Open: 0.0
TCU 34 - SMU: 17

Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 39 - 18 (31 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 91.4° (56% Hum)
Wind: 12.7 MPH
TCU is playing their 4th straight game
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -3 (SP+ SMU -3)
Projected Score: SMU: 31 - TCU: 28 (60)
TCU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
SMU Travel: 35 miles

Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (15 - 3)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	SMU vs Louisiana Tech	-21.0	66.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	SMU at Oklahoma	+16.5	68.5	L 11 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/16	SMU vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	63.5	W 69 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/23	SMU at TCU	+7.0	63.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/30	SMU vs Charlotte	-22.5	53.0	W 34 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	SMU at East Carolina	-11.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 10/20	SMU at Temple	-24.0	53.0	W 55 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/28	SMU vs Tulsa	-20.5	55.0	W 69 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/4	SMU at Rice	-12.0	59.5	W 36 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/10	SMU vs North Texas	-21.5	67.5	W 45 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	SMU at Memphis	-9.5	64.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/25	SMU vs Navy	-20.0	46.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/2	SMU at Tulane	+4.0	50.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Thu 12/28	SMU vs Boston College	-13.5	49.0	L 14 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

TCU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	TCU vs Colorado	-20.5	59.5	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	TCU vs Nicholls	-41.5	59.5	W 41 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	TCU at Houston	-7.5	64.0	W 36 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	TCU vs SMU	-7.0	63.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	TCU vs West Virginia	-14.0	52.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/7	TCU at Iowa State	-6.5	52.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	TCU vs BYU	-5.0	52.5	W 44 - 11	O	Y
Sat 10/21	TCU at Kansas State	+5.5	60.0	L 3 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2	TCU at Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	TCU vs Texas	+13.0	56.0	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/18	TCU vs Baylor	-13.0	62.0	W 42 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	TCU at Oklahoma	+12.5	66.5	L 45 - 69	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#24 (.28)	44% (46)	38.7	47% (30)	3.21 (49)	177	42% (67)	278	4.51 (21)	#7 (.04)	36% (10)	17.8	37% (17)	35% (8)	3.59 (51)	40.8	0.9	1.2
TCU	#25 (.28)	47% (16)	31.3	49% (18)	3.35 (23)	155	47% (20)	312	3.91 (69)	#96 (.23)	44% (89)	27.8	43% (70)	45% (112)	3.91 (78)	53.6	1.6	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)		44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)		39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)		45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)		46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	14	38.7	30.6	43.9%	4.51	0.9	24	455	177	278	4.5	50%	49%	47%	42%	12%	.28
TCU Defense	12	27.8	21.3	43.6%	3.91	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	45%	13%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	14	17.8	21.6	35.7%	3.59	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	37%	35%	19%	.04
TCU Offense	12	31.3	35.7	47.4%	3.91	1.6	25	467	155	312	4.6	42%	57%	49%	47%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	14	30:21	23.5	43%	59%	4.6	40.8	0.9	1.2	6.6	3.1	5	30.4
TCU	12	27:21	25	46%	50%	6.2	53.6	1.6	1	5	1.8	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	14	50% (66)	47% (30)	39.7	176.6	4.5	29 (22)	.18 (52)	3.21 (49)	85% (2)	6% (4)	0.88 (122)
TCU Defense	12	51% (76)	43% (70)	-	-	-	-	.16 (81)	3.16 (82)	78% (100)	8% (117)	1 (72)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	14	47% (38)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (19)	2.9 (35)	67% (30)	12% (23)	0.97 (50)
TCU Offense	12	42% (119)	49% (18)	33.8	154.5	4.6	19 (69)	.22 (29)	3.35 (23)	79% (26)	7% (6)	0.96 (93)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	14	49% (71)	42% (67)	19.6	33.2	278.4	8.4	14.2	33 (11)	8 (30)	.45 (16)	2 (3)	31% (57)	33% (44)	.38 (53)	6% (58)	2.1 (46)
TCU Defense	12	49% (59)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.35 (106)	1.6 (86)	31% (95)	35% (122)	.37 (98)	5% (119)	2 (34)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	14	52% (97)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.09 (8)	1.7 (87)	36% (18)	22% (1)	.07 (2)	8% (19)	2.1 (70)
TCU Offense	12	57% (16)	47% (20)	26.6	41.9	312.2	7.5	11.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.4 (27)	1.6 (63)	31% (54)	42% (4)	.61 (6)	7% (94)	2 (73)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 11.11 #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 11.11 TCU: 8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 10.5 TCU: 7.5

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 8 #44
TCU's Offense Rating: 20.84 #32
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.76 #97
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 31 #24
TCU's 2023 Expected Record: 6.40 - 5.60
TCU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #40
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #27
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

SMU Scoring
Offense: 38.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.6
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.6

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 31
TCU 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 31
SMU 23

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
SMU 30
TCU 27

Total Points: 57

TCU Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 27.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

TCU's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	TCU	35	SMU	24	TCU -6.5	TCU	63.5	Under
2024	09/21	SMU	66	TCU	42	TCU -1	SMU	58.5	Over
2023	09/23	TCU	34	SMU	17	TCU -7	TCU	63.5	Under
2022	09/24	SMU	34	TCU	42	TCU -2.5	TCU	72.0	Over
2021	09/25	TCU	34	SMU	42	TCU -8	SMU	66.0	Over
2019	09/21	TCU	38	SMU	41	TCU -7.5	SMU	54.5	Over
2018	09/07	SMU	12	TCU	42	TCU -23.5	TCU	59.5	Under
2017	09/16	TCU	56	SMU	36	TCU -22	SMU	64.5	Over
2016	09/23	SMU	3	TCU	33	TCU -24	TCU	68.0	Under
2015	09/19	TCU	56	SMU	37	TCU -38	SMU	68.5	Over
2014	09/27	SMU	0	TCU	56	TCU -31	TCU	0
2013	09/28	TCU	48	SMU	17	TCU -19.5	TCU	0
2012	09/29	SMU	16	TCU	24
2011	10/01	TCU	33	SMU	40
2010	09/24	SMU	24	TCU	41
2009	10/03	TCU	39	SMU	14
2008	09/20	SMU	7	TCU	48
2007	09/22	TCU	21	SMU	7
2005	09/10	SMU	21	TCU	10
2004	09/11	TCU	44	SMU	0
2003	11/29	SMU	13	TCU	20
2002	09/14	TCU	17	SMU	6
2001	09/08	SMU	10	TCU	38
2000	11/23	SMU	7	TCU	62

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	19	7	6 Overs
SMU	5	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 13	4 - 8	3 - 4	1 - 4
Road Teams	13 - 11	8 - 4	4 - 1	4 - 3

(#19) SMU at (#44) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	TCU
Power RatePwr	#19	#44
SP+SP+	#25	#40
Perf GradeGrade	#7	#51
OffenseOff	#10	#38
DefenseDef	#11	#73
Spec TeamsST	#53	#61
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#66	#24

SMU Injury Report

TCU Injury Report

SMU on Offense


CategoryCat	SMU Off	TCU Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#73
SuccessSuc	#46	#89
ExplosiveExp	#15	#89
PPAPPA	#24	#96
PowerPwr	#26	#97
SP+SP+	#18	#57
Pts POPPO	#21	#78
HavocHav	#8	#123

SMU Run Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#106	#42
Run SuccessRSuc	#30	#70
Run ExplRExp	#122	#72
PPAExp	#52	#81
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#49	#82
Stuff RateStuff	#38	#80
TackleTak	-	#75

SMU Pass Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#3	#86
PPAExp	#16	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#16	#119
F7 HavocF7	#4	#117
DB HavocDB	#58	#119

TCU on Offense


CategoryCat	TCU Off	SMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#38	#11
SuccessSuc	#16	#10
ExplosiveExp	#51	#86
PPAPPA	#25	#7
PowerPwr	#32	#10
SP+SP+	#27	#41
Pts POPPO	#69	#51
HavocHav	#19	#14

TCU Run Game


CategoryCat	TCU Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#41	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#17
Run ExplRExp	#93	#50
PPAExp	#29	#19
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#35
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#27
TackleTak	-	#47

TCU Pass Game


CategoryCat	TCU Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#44	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#8
Pass ExplPExl	#63	#87
PPAExp	#27	#8
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	#4
F7 HavocF7	#6	#23
DB HavocDB	#94	#19

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 91° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 4
TCU -7.0 (63.5)
TCU won vs SMU this year (34-17)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat TCU last year (66-42)
TCU beat SMU in 2023 (34-17)
TCU beat SMU in 2022 (42-34)

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Preston Stone	206	344	60%	3197	28	6	9.3
Kevin Jennings	61	105	58%	618	5	2	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)	136	745	7	5.5	95
LJ Johnson Jr.	109	576	4	5.3	67
Camar Wheaton	83	410	5	4.9	48
Preston Stone	62	198	4	3.2	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jake Bailey	42	528	0	12.6	34
R.J. Maryland	34	518	7	15.2	62
Kelvontay Dixon	25	441	4	17.6	52
Romello Brinson (Tr)	28	431	2	15.4	74

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)	73	3	1	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	56	5	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker (Tr)	55	6	1	0	4
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)	37	13	9	7	2
Isaiah Smith	24	6	5	4	0
Elijah Chatman	31	8	5	3	0
Nelson Paul	22	7	5	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Charles Woods (Tr)	27	1	0	11
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	8
Chris Megginson (Tr)	18	0	0	6

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	186	299	62%	2210	15	9	7.4
Chandler Morris	132	202	65%	1528	12	5	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emani Bailey	223	1209	8	5.4	74
Chandler Morris	45	249	3	5.5	32
Trey Sanders (Tr)	48	176	6	3.7	18
Savion Williams	11	62	0	5.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Savion Williams	41	573	4	14.0	42
John Paul Richardson	46	536	3	11.7	59
Jared Wiley	47	520	8	11.1	81
Jaylon Robinson (Tr)	32	397	1	12.4	29

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Joe Gillespie (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamoi Hodge	80	7	3	7	2
Namdi Obiazor	75	6	4	3	2
Shadrach Banks	57	9	1	2	0
Nook Bradford	53	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Namdi Obiazor	75	6	4	3	2
Paul Oyewale	21	5	3	1	0
Jamoi Hodge	80	7	3	7	2
Caleb Fox	25	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Josh Newton	29	0	5
Nook Bradford	53	0	5
Mark Perry	52	2	4