Tulsa at SMU - 2023 Matchup Preview
Tulsa logo Tulsa Golden Hurricane at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
SMU -20.5 (55.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
SMU 69 - Tulsa: 10  (American Athletic)

 
Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kevin Wilson (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (18 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: SMU -24.5   (SP+ SMU -25)
Projected Score: TLSA: 16 - SMU: 40 (56)
SMU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
TLSA Travel: 234 miles
Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 39 - 18 (52 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Tulsa's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Tulsa vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-41.052.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/9 Tulsa at Washington+34.066.5L 10 - 43UY
Sat 9/16 Tulsa vs Oklahoma+28.058.5L 17 - 66ON
Sat 9/23 Tulsa at Northern Illinois+3.554.5W 22 - 14UY
Thu 9/28 Tulsa vs Temple-3.056.0W 48 - 26OY
Sat 10/7 Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+3.054.5L 17 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19 Tulsa vs Rice-3.056.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 10/28 Tulsa at SMU+20.555.0L 10 - 69ON
Sat 11/4 Tulsa vs Charlotte-4.547.5L 26 - 33ON
Sat 11/11 Tulsa at Tulane+24.552.5L 22 - 24UY
Sat 11/18 Tulsa vs North Texas+1.569.5L 28 - 35UN
Sat 11/25 Tulsa at East Carolina+4.544.5W 29 - 27OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
SMU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 SMU vs Louisiana Tech-21.066.0W 38 - 14UY
Sat 9/9 SMU at Oklahoma+16.568.5L 11 - 28UN
Sat 9/16 SMU vs Prairie View A&M-42.563.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/23 SMU at TCU+7.063.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/30 SMU vs Charlotte-22.553.0W 34 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12 SMU at East Carolina-11.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Fri 10/20 SMU at Temple-24.053.0W 55 - 0OY
Sat 10/28 SMU vs Tulsa-20.555.0W 69 - 10OY
Sat 11/4 SMU at Rice-12.059.5W 36 - 31ON
Fri 11/10 SMU vs North Texas-21.567.5W 45 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 SMU at Memphis-9.564.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 11/25 SMU vs Navy-20.046.0W 59 - 14OY
Sat 12/2 SMU at Tulane+4.050.5W 26 - 14UY
Thu 12/28 SMU vs Boston College-13.549.0L 14 - 23UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#77 (.18)41% (83)23.440% (99)3.16 (59)18144% (50)2054.23 (34)#120 (.29)44% (96)33.843% (67)46% (121)3.95 (82)43.321.7
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)38.747% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)17.837% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TLSA#124 (.06)34% (131)35% (128)2.88 (97)15133% (126)2393.54 (100)#127 (.31)42% (75)38% (23)46% (115)4.7 (130)511.91.3
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Offense1223.418.341%4.232203861812054.157%41%40%44%17%.18
SMU Defense1417.812.535.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TLSA Defense1233.832.843.9%3.951.7 - - - - - 47%51%43%46%14%.29
SMU Offense1438.752.343.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tulsa1229:4219.845%44%5.143.321.75.41.8028.1
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense1257% (16)40% (99)43.9180.94.113 (108).1 (96)3.16 (59)79% (27)11% (87)0.88 (120)
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense1247% (37)43% (67) - - - - .21 (107)3.18 (89)67% (30)10% (74)1.13 (115)
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense1241% (118)44% (50)15.827.8204.77.412.920 (70)19 (131).36 (37)1.8 (13)34% (95)32% (57).33 (68)6% (73)2.1 (66)
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense1251% (89)46% (121) - - - - - - 10 (67).43 (124)1.7 (100)30% (103)29% (43).41 (111)5% (113)2.6 (133)
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -8.35 #111
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 13.36 #105
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Tulsa's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Tulsa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.2 #115
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #100
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -8.35   SMU: 13.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -14.2   SMU: 10.5




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.305 #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Tulsa's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 40
Tulsa 16

Total Points: 56

SMU Scoring
Offense: 38.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52.3
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.5

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28SMU69Tulsa10SMUSMU -20.5SMU55.0Over
202210/29Tulsa34SMU45SMUSMU -1SMU63.5Over
202111/27SMU31Tulsa34TulsaSMU -6Tulsa63.0Over
202011/14Tulsa28SMU24TulsaSMU -2.0Tulsa64.0Under
201910/05SMU43Tulsa37SMUSMU -12Tulsa63.5Over
201811/24Tulsa27SMU24TulsaSMU -2.5Tulsa52.5Under
201710/27SMU38Tulsa34SMUSMU -11.5Tulsa76.5Under
201610/07Tulsa43SMU40TulsaTulsa -11SMU68.0Over
201510/31SMU31Tulsa40TulsaTulsa -1.5Tulsa75.5Under
201411/08Tulsa38SMU28TulsaTulsa -9.5Tulsa0
201211/24SMU35Tulsa27SMU
201110/29Tulsa38SMU7Tulsa
201010/09SMU21Tulsa18SMU
200910/31Tulsa13SMU27SMU
200810/11SMU31Tulsa37Tulsa
200710/27Tulsa29SMU23Tulsa
200611/18SMU34Tulsa24SMU
200510/22Tulsa20SMU13Tulsa
200411/06SMU41Tulsa35SMU
200310/25Tulsa35SMU16Tulsa
200111/17Tulsa14SMU24SMU
200011/10SMU24Tulsa20SMU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU1135 Overs
Tulsa1174 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 64 - 62 - 42 - 2
Road Teams6 - 166 - 42 - 24 - 2

(#111) Tulsa Info
Power Rating: -8.35 #111
Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Defense Rating: 13.36 #105
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.2 #115
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #100
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30


Tulsa has lost 2 straight
Tulsa has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (4 - 1 - 1 vs Spread )

Tulsa Highlights
Tulsa does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#117)

Tulsa commits very few Penalties (#91)

Tulsa Deficiencies
Tulsa has a bad TO Margin (#82)
Tulsa throws a Lot of Interceptions (#92)
Tulsa Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Tulsa gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#46)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSMUTLSA
OverallOver#6#79
OffenseOff#10#48
DefenseDef#8#97
Special TeamsST#45#109
PassingPass#4#73
RushingRush#75#45
Run BlockRBLK#6#41
Pass BlockPBLK#14#43
Route RunningWR Rt#23#45
TacklingTkl#42#114
Run DefenseR Def#23#104
Pass Rush DefPRush#3#16
Coverage DefCov#11#111

Rematch from Week 9
SMU -20.5 (55.0)
SMU won vs Tulsa this year (69-10)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Tulsa in 2023 (69-10)
SMU beat Tulsa in 2022 (45-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TLSA | SMU
Depth Chart: TLSA | SMU
Rosters: TLSA | SMU
(#19) SMU Info
Power Rating: 13.305 #19
Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10


SMU has won 3 straight
SMU has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 0 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

SMU Highlights
SMU is Undefeated at Home

SMU has Really Good Running Game (#66)
SMU offense is explosive (#37)
SMU offense is good in red zone (#80)
SMU Defense Sacks the QB a lot

SMU has a really good defense (#109)
SMU has a good run defense (#62)
SMU has a good pass defense (#127)
SMU Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#28)
SMU Front 7 is disruptive (#88)
SMU Secondary is very good (#8)
SMU has a great TO Margin (#116)

SMU Deficiencies


  
Tulsa's OC Steve Spurrier Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cardell Williams7913260%11491078.7
Kirk Francis6812156%967638.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Watkins19788944.546
Bill Jackson9141414.538
Jordan Ford7829413.822
Cardell Williams5720053.550
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamdyn Benjamin47727615.551
Carl Chester22401118.257
Devan Williams29399213.842
Marquis Shoulders16283517.780

View Tulsa's Full Roster
Tulsa's DC Chris Polizzi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendarin Ray (Tr)1314011
Julien Simon (Tr)5810312
Dayne Hodge562000
Ben Kopenski5214940
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Kopenski5214940
Owen Ostroski3110430
Julien Simon (Tr)5810312
Mitchell Kulkin393243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaise Oliver482006
Xavier Lanier150004
Nunu Campbell230003

SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Preston Stone20634460%31972869.3
Kevin Jennings6110558%618525.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)13674575.595
LJ Johnson Jr.10957645.367
Camar Wheaton8341054.948
Preston Stone6219843.234
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jake Bailey42528012.634
R.J. Maryland34518715.262
Kelvontay Dixon25441417.652
Romello Brinson (Tr)28431215.474

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)733141
Isaiah Nwokobia565123
Ahmad Walker (Tr)556104
Jonathan McGill (Tr)465108
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)3713972
Isaiah Smith246540
Elijah Chatman318530
Nelson Paul227511
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Woods (Tr)2710011
Jonathan McGill (Tr)465108
Chris Megginson (Tr)180006