Tulsa at SMU - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
SMU -20.5 (55.0) (0) Open: 0.0
SMU 69 - Tulsa: 10 (American Athletic)

Golden Hurricane (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kevin Wilson (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: SMU -24.5 (SP+ SMU -25)
Projected Score: TLSA: 15 - SMU: 39 (54)
SMU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
TLSA Travel: 234 miles

Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TLSA Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tulsa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Tulsa vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-41.0	52.5	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/9	Tulsa at Washington	+34.0	66.5	L 10 - 43	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Tulsa vs Oklahoma	+28.0	58.5	L 17 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/23	Tulsa at Northern Illinois	+3.5	54.5	W 22 - 14	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Tulsa vs Temple	-3.0	56.0	W 48 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Tulsa at Florida Atlantic	+3.0	54.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19	Tulsa vs Rice	-3.0	56.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/28	Tulsa at SMU	+20.5	55.0	L 10 - 69	O	N
Sat 11/4	Tulsa vs Charlotte	-4.5	47.5	L 26 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/11	Tulsa at Tulane	+24.5	52.5	L 22 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Tulsa vs North Texas	+1.5	69.5	L 28 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/25	Tulsa at East Carolina	+4.5	44.5	W 29 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule

SMU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	SMU vs Louisiana Tech	-21.0	66.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	SMU at Oklahoma	+16.5	68.5	L 11 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/16	SMU vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	63.5	W 69 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/23	SMU at TCU	+7.0	63.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/30	SMU vs Charlotte	-22.5	53.0	W 34 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	SMU at East Carolina	-11.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 10/20	SMU at Temple	-24.0	53.0	W 55 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/28	SMU vs Tulsa	-20.5	55.0	W 69 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/4	SMU at Rice	-12.0	59.5	W 36 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/10	SMU vs North Texas	-21.5	67.5	W 45 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	SMU at Memphis	-9.5	64.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/25	SMU vs Navy	-20.0	46.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/2	SMU at Tulane	+4.0	50.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Thu 12/28	SMU vs Boston College	-13.5	49.0	L 14 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA	.21	41%	23.2	44%	3.09	139	40%	273	4.61	.23	40%	28.9	42%	38%	4.15	56.7	1.5	1.7
SMU	.26	45%	32.2	45%	3.13	156	45%	317	4.58	.26	43%	20.5	46%	40%	4.32	41.7	1.5	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Offense	12	23.2	19	41.4%	4.61	1.5	21	412	139	273	3.9	46%	54%	44%	40%	17%	.21
SMU Defense	13	20.5	19.2	43%	4.32	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	40%	13%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Defense	12	28.9	30.7	40.2%	4.15	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	42%	38%	15%	.23
SMU Offense	13	32.2	36	44.8%	4.58	1.5	25	473	156	317	4.1	47%	52%	45%	45%	13%	.26

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tulsa	12	28:52	21.4	40%	65%	6.1	56.7	1.5	1.7	5.2	1.3	0	28.1
SMU	13	27:42	25.5	48%	59%	4.2	41.7	1.5	1.7	4.8	2.1	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense	12	46%	44%	35.8	138.7	3.9	18	.14	3.09	76%	11%	0.98
SMU Defense	13	54%	46%	-	-	-	-	.29	3.23	74%	8%	1.16

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense	12	56%	42%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.15	81%	10%	1.08
SMU Offense	13	47%	45%	37.8	156.2	4.1	26	.17	3.13	72%	9%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense	12	54%	40%	20.1	34.6	273.2	7.9	13.6	27	10	.3	1.8	31%	30%	.39	6%	2.4
SMU Defense	13	45%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.31	1.7	32%	30%	.37	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense	12	43%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.3	1.7	34%	30%	.31	5%	1.9
SMU Offense	13	52%	45%	25.6	39.5	316.7	8	12.4	36	11	.37	1.7	31%	35%	.48	5%	2.2

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -8.35 #111
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 13.36 #105
2023 Talent Rating: 520.23 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Tulsa's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Tulsa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.2 #115
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #100
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -8.35 SMU: 13.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -14.2 SMU: 10.5

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.305 #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
2023 Talent Rating: 714.21 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Tulsa's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 39
Tulsa 15

Projected Total Points: 54

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	SMU	69	Tulsa	10	SMU -20.5	SMU	55.0	Over
2022	10/29	Tulsa	34	SMU	45	SMU -1	SMU	63.5	Over
2021	11/27	SMU	31	Tulsa	34	SMU -6	Tulsa	63.0	Over
2020	11/14	Tulsa	28	SMU	24	SMU -2.0	Tulsa	64.0	Under
2019	10/05	SMU	43	Tulsa	37	SMU -12	Tulsa	63.5	Over
2018	11/24	Tulsa	27	SMU	24	SMU -2.5	Tulsa	52.5	Under
2017	10/27	SMU	38	Tulsa	34	SMU -11.5	Tulsa	76.5	Under
2016	10/07	Tulsa	43	SMU	40	Tulsa -11	SMU	68.0	Over
2015	10/31	SMU	31	Tulsa	40	Tulsa -1.5	Tulsa	75.5	Under
2014	11/08	Tulsa	38	SMU	28	Tulsa -9.5	Tulsa	0
2012	11/24	SMU	35	Tulsa	27
2011	10/29	Tulsa	38	SMU	7
2010	10/09	SMU	21	Tulsa	18
2009	10/31	Tulsa	13	SMU	27
2008	10/11	SMU	31	Tulsa	37
2007	10/27	Tulsa	29	SMU	23
2006	11/18	SMU	34	Tulsa	24
2005	10/22	Tulsa	20	SMU	13
2004	11/06	SMU	41	Tulsa	35
2003	10/25	Tulsa	35	SMU	16
2001	11/17	Tulsa	14	SMU	24
2000	11/10	SMU	24	Tulsa	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	11	3	5 Overs
Tulsa	11	7	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 6	4 - 6	2 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 16	6 - 4	2 - 2	4 - 2

(#111) TLSA at (#19) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TLSA	SMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#111	#19
SP+SP+	#115	#25
Perf GradeGrade	#95	#7
OffenseOff	#51	#10
DefenseDef	#124	#11
Spec TeamsST	#133	#53
TalentTal	#83	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#66

Tulsa Injury Report

SMU Injury Report

Tulsa on Offense


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	SMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#51	#11
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#70	#10
SP+SP+	#100	#41
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Tulsa Run Game


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#63	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#47

Tulsa Pass Game


CategoryCat	TLSA Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#50	#4
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

SMU on Offense


CategoryCat	SMU Off	TLSA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#124
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#26	#105
SP+SP+	#18	#117
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

SMU Run Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	TLSA Def
Run GameRun	#106	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#132

SMU Pass Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	TLSA Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#16	#18
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
SMU -20.5 (55.0)
SMU won vs Tulsa this year (69-10)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Tulsa in 2023 (69-10)

TLSA's OC Steve Spurrier Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cardell Williams	79	132	60%	1149	10	7	8.7
Kirk Francis	68	121	56%	967	6	3	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Watkins	197	889	4	4.5	46
Bill Jackson	91	414	1	4.5	38
Jordan Ford	78	294	1	3.8	22
Cardell Williams	57	200	5	3.5	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kamdyn Benjamin	47	727	6	15.5	51
Carl Chester	22	401	1	18.2	57
Devan Williams	29	399	2	13.8	42
Marquis Shoulders	16	283	5	17.7	80

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Chris Polizzi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendarin Ray (Tr)	131	4	0	1	1
Julien Simon (Tr)	58	10	3	1	2
Dayne Hodge	56	2	0	0	0
Ben Kopenski	52	14	9	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ben Kopenski	52	14	9	4	0
Owen Ostroski	31	10	4	3	0
Julien Simon (Tr)	58	10	3	1	2
Mitchell Kulkin	39	3	2	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaise Oliver	48	2	6
Xavier Lanier	15	0	4
Nunu Campbell	23	0	3

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Preston Stone	206	344	60%	3197	28	6	9.3
Kevin Jennings	61	105	58%	618	5	2	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)	136	745	7	5.5	95
LJ Johnson Jr.	109	576	4	5.3	67
Camar Wheaton	83	410	5	4.9	48
Preston Stone	62	198	4	3.2	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jake Bailey	42	528	0	12.6	34
R.J. Maryland	34	518	7	15.2	62
Kelvontay Dixon	25	441	4	17.6	52
Romello Brinson (Tr)	28	431	2	15.4	74

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)	73	3	1	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	56	5	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker (Tr)	55	6	1	0	4
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)	37	13	9	7	2
Isaiah Smith	24	6	5	4	0
Elijah Chatman	31	8	5	3	0
Nelson Paul	22	7	5	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Charles Woods (Tr)	27	1	0	11
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	8
Chris Megginson (Tr)	18	0	0	6