UTSA at North Texas - 2023 Matchup Preview
UTSA logo   UTSA Roadrunners at North Texas Mean Green  North Texas logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:00 PM EDT)
UT San Antonio -7.5 (71.0) (-310)  Open: -7.0
UTSA 37 - North Texas: 29  (American Athletic)

 
Roadrunners (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (31 - 12)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (22 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#32)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNT 2nd straight Home Game
UNT is playing their 6th straight game
UTSA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UTSA -6.5  (SP+ UTSA -11.5)
Projected Score: UTSA: 37 - UNT: 31 (68)
UTSA Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UTSA Travel: 273 miles
Mean Green (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Eric Morris (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
UTSA's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 UTSA at Houston-2.559.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 9/9 UTSA vs Texas State-13.566.5W 20 - 13UN
Fri 9/15 UTSA vs Army-7.042.0L 29 - 37ON
Sat 9/23 UTSA at Tennessee+24.059.0L 14 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 UTSA at Temple-14.056.0W 49 - 34OY
Sat 10/14 UTSA vs UAB-9.067.0W 41 - 20UY
Sat 10/21 UTSA at Florida Atlantic-2.558.5W 36 - 10UY
Sat 10/28 UTSA vs East Carolina-17.548.0W 41 - 27ON
Sat 11/4 UTSA at North Texas-7.571.0W 37 - 29UY
Sat 11/11 UTSA vs Rice-13.553.5W 34 - 14UY
Fri 11/17 UTSA vs South Florida-14.565.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/24 UTSA at Tulane+2.551.5L 16 - 29UN
Tue 12/19 UTSA vs Marshall-7.047.0W 35 - 17OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule
North Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Texas vs California+5.053.5L 21 - 58ON
Sat 9/9 North Texas at Florida International-10.551.5L 39 - 46ON
Sat 9/16 North Texas at Louisiana Tech+4.566.5W 40 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 North Texas vs Abilene Christian-15.570.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 10/7 North Texas at Navy+6.560.5L 24 - 27UY
Sat 10/14 North Texas vs Temple-8.065.5W 45 - 14UY
Sat 10/21 North Texas at Tulane+20.063.5L 28 - 35UY
Sat 10/28 North Texas vs Memphis+6.570.0L 42 - 45OY
Sat 11/4 North Texas vs UTSA+7.571.0L 29 - 37UN
Fri 11/10 North Texas at SMU+21.567.5L 21 - 45UN
Sat 11/18 North Texas at Tulsa-1.569.5W 35 - 28UY
Sat 11/25 North Texas vs UAB-3.072.5W 45 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA.3149%35.546%3.4117653%3004.28.1636%28.834%38%3.1862.61.41.7
UNT.2341%45.140%2.9719842%2624.46.2847%26.550%44%4.2441.41.61.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Offense1435.521.749.3%4.281.4264761763004.548%52%46%53%14%.31
UNT Defense1426.52247.2%4.241.4 - - - - - 51%48%50%44%13%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Defense1428.833.735.8%3.181.7 - - - - - 48%51%34%38%21%.16
UNT Offense1445.145.740.6%4.461.6224601982625.253%46%40%42%14%.23

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTSA1429:4425.949%48%7.162.61.41.76.41.8230.6
North Texas1427:2121.743%61%5.241.41.61.43.91.9226.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense1448%46%38.8175.64.528.213.4175%9%0.99
UNT Defense1451%50% - - - - .283.6471%8%0.97
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense1448%34% - - - - .12.6567%12%1.24
UNT Offense1453%40%38.3197.95.224.172.9769%6%1.11

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense1452%53%24.435.9300.48.412.3349.441.527%38%.496%2
UNT Defense1448%44% - - - - - - 8.291.627%33%.46%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense1451%38% - - - - - - 15.251.736%28%.318%2.3
UNT Offense1446%42%17.230.7261.98.515.23416.361.930%36%.538%2.3

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 1.44  #55
UTSA's Offense Rating: 18.48  #51
UTSA's Defense Rating: 7.49  #43
2023 Talent Rating: 574.52  #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
UTSA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40
UTSA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2  #49
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #42
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 1.44   North Texas: -3.695

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 4.2   North Texas: -7.2




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -3.695  #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 21.84  #27
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.31  #131
2023 Talent Rating: 474.38  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
North Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
North Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #88
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #30
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6  #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

UTSA's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UTSA 37
North Texas 31

Projected Total Points: 68
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18North Texas55UTSA17North Texas -4North Texas64.5Over
202411/15UTSA48North Texas27UTSA -1UTSA73.0Over
202311/04North Texas29UTSA37UT San Antonio -7.5UTSA71.0Under
202212/02UTSA48North Texas27UT San Antonio -8.5UTSA70.0Over
202210/22UTSA31North Texas27UT San Antonio -10North Texas73.0Under
202111/27North Texas45UTSA23UT San Antonio -8.5North Texas60.0Over
202011/28UTSA49North Texas17UT San Antonio -1.5UTSA67.0Under
201909/21North Texas45UTSA3North Texas -17.5North Texas57.0Under
201811/24UTSA21North Texas24North Texas -25UTSA51.5Under
201710/14North Texas29UTSA26UT San Antonio -2.5North Texas58.5Under
201610/29UTSA31North Texas17UT San Antonio -4UTSA51.0Under
201510/31North Texas30UTSA23UT San Antonio -12North Texas54.5Under
201411/29UTSA34North Texas27UT San Antonio -6UTSA0
201311/23North Texas13UTSA21North Texas -7UTSA0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas664 Overs
UTSA888 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 311 - 37 - 24 - 1
Road Teams3 - 113 - 111 - 42 - 7

(#55) UTSA at (#90) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTSAUNT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #55 #90
SP+SP+ #49 #88
Perf GradeGrade #65 #59
OffenseOff #53 #35
DefenseDef #73 #112
Spec TeamsST #122 #19
TalentTal #74 #97
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
UTSA on Offense
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUNT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #53 #112
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #51 #131
SP+SP+ #42 #133
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
UTSA Run Game
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #40 #116
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #102
UTSA Pass Game
CategoryCat
UTSA OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #71 #101
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #106 #86
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
North Texas on Offense
CategoryCatUNT OffUTSA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35 #73
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #27 #43
SP+SP+ #30 #75
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Texas Run Game
CategoryCat
UNT OffUTSA Def
Run GameRun #50 #55
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #96
North Texas Pass Game
CategoryCatUNT OffUTSA Def
Pass GamePass #12 #112
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #103 #24
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

UTSA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
UTSA 7.5 (71.0)
UTSA won at North Texas this year (37-29)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat UTSA last year (55-17)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2024 (48-27)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2023 (37-29)

  
UTSA's OC Justin Burke (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Frank Harris21833665%25061887.5
Owen McCown (Tr)435874%442437.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevorian Barnes14771564.944
Robert Henry127588114.643
Rocko Griffin (Tr)9148365.369
Frank Harris8632343.840
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Joshua Cephus8911511012.984
Tykee Ogle-Kellogg33575717.446
Devin Mccuin42546313.072
Oscar Cardenas3228028.828

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ken Robinson652014
Jamal Ligon627151
Martavius French615243
Rashad Wisdom612204
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Moore45181433
Brandon Matterson146550
Jimmori Robinson40115102
Nick Booker-Brown187313
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameryn Alexander (Tr)3421115
Nicktroy Fortune261029
Ken Robinson652014

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Rogers (Tr)26242262%33832958.0
Stone Earle224055%274446.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ayo Adeyi143101767.147
Oscar Adaway III12373866.077
Isaiah Johnson3722936.228
Chandler Rogers (Tr)10918041.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jay Maclin5710041117.680
Damon Ward Jr.39487512.559
Roderic Burns41467411.442
Trey Cleveland (Tr)27415315.433

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Patrick Smith700001
Ethan Wesloski597220
Logan Wilson531003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Mazin Richards44113100
Kevin Wood373211
Kadron Johnson52220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ridge Texada333027
Evan Jackson270003
Brian Nelson II60003