UTSA at North Texas - 2023 Matchup Preview

UTSA Roadrunners at North Texas Mean Green

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:00 PM EDT)
UT San Antonio -7.5 (71.0) (-310) Open: -7.0
UTSA 37 - North Texas: 29 (American Athletic)

Roadrunners (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (31 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 24 (28 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#32)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 17.4 MPH
UNT 2nd straight Home Game
UNT is playing their 6th straight game
UTSA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UTSA -6.5 (SP+ UTSA -11.5)
Projected Score: UTSA: 38 - UNT: 31 (69)
UTSA Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UTSA Travel: 273 miles

Mean Green (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Eric Morris (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 35 - 37 (38 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTSA Players
UNT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTSA's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UTSA at Houston	-2.5	59.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/9	UTSA vs Texas State	-13.5	66.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Fri 9/15	UTSA vs Army	-7.0	42.0	L 29 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/23	UTSA at Tennessee	+24.0	59.0	L 14 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	UTSA at Temple	-14.0	56.0	W 49 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/14	UTSA vs UAB	-9.0	67.0	W 41 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/21	UTSA at Florida Atlantic	-2.5	58.5	W 36 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UTSA vs East Carolina	-17.5	48.0	W 41 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/4	UTSA at North Texas	-7.5	71.0	W 37 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/11	UTSA vs Rice	-13.5	53.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Fri 11/17	UTSA vs South Florida	-14.5	65.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/24	UTSA at Tulane	+2.5	51.5	L 16 - 29	U	N
Tue 12/19	UTSA vs Marshall	-7.0	47.0	W 35 - 17	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule

North Texas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Texas vs California	+5.0	53.5	L 21 - 58	O	N
Sat 9/9	North Texas at Florida International	-10.5	51.5	L 39 - 46	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Texas at Louisiana Tech	+4.5	66.5	W 40 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	North Texas vs Abilene Christian	-15.5	70.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/7	North Texas at Navy	+6.5	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Texas vs Temple	-8.0	65.5	W 45 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	North Texas at Tulane	+20.0	63.5	L 28 - 35	U	Y
Sat 10/28	North Texas vs Memphis	+6.5	70.0	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/4	North Texas vs UTSA	+7.5	71.0	L 29 - 37	U	N
Fri 11/10	North Texas at SMU	+21.5	67.5	L 21 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/18	North Texas at Tulsa	-1.5	69.5	W 35 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	North Texas vs UAB	-3.0	72.5	W 45 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTSA	#45 (.23)	42% (66)	31.9	41% (89)	3 (88)	172	44% (49)	250	4.45 (24)	#35 (.14)	37% (21)	24.1	38% (26)	38% (25)	3.77 (65)	51.2	1.7	1.3
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	34.5	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	37.1	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTSA	#61 (.2)	40% (100)		37% (123)	3.03 (70)	169	43% (61)	283	3.63 (94)	#42 (.13)	34% (2)		32% (1)	36% (16)	3.78 (66)	81.1	1.7	1.6
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)		40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)		47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTSA Offense	13	31.9	27.7	42.2%	4.45	1.7	23	422	172	250	4.3	51%	49%	41%	44%	15%	.23
UNT Defense	12	37.1	37.8	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTSA Defense	13	24.1	27.3	37.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	38%	20%	.14
UNT Offense	12	34.5	37.8	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTSA	13	30:08	22.6	47%	58%	5.6	51.2	1.7	1.3	7.6	3.5	1	29
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense	13	51% (62)	41% (89)	39.7	171.8	4.3	27 (29)	.18 (48)	3 (88)	81% (14)	9% (45)	1.13 (13)
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense	13	47% (27)	38% (26)	-	-	-	-	.12 (52)	2.86 (27)	83% (114)	12% (14)	1.14 (118)
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense	13	49% (72)	44% (49)	22.3	34.3	249.8	7.3	11.2	25 (37)	14 (107)	.31 (58)	1.6 (60)	32% (71)	35% (27)	.46 (28)	6% (64)	2.2 (35)
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense	13	52% (101)	38% (25)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.23 (44)	1.6 (70)	35% (28)	24% (6)	.18 (13)	8% (11)	2.4 (130)
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 1.44 #55
UTSA's Offense Rating: 18.48 #51
UTSA's Defense Rating: 7.49 #43
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
UTSA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40
UTSA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2 #49
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 1.44 North Texas: -3.695

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 4.2 North Texas: -7.2

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -3.695 #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 21.84 #27
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.31 #131
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
North Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
North Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #30
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6 #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.7
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.3

UTSA's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UTSA 38
North Texas 31

Total Points: 69

Based on Last 4 Games
UTSA 36
North Texas 31

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
UTSA 34
North Texas 31

Total Points: 65

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 34.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.8
Defense: 37.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.8

North Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	North Texas	55	UTSA	17	North Texas -4	North Texas	64.5	Over
2024	11/15	UTSA	48	North Texas	27	UTSA -1	UTSA	73.0	Over
2023	11/04	North Texas	29	UTSA	37	UT San Antonio -7.5	UTSA	71.0	Under
2022	12/02	UTSA	48	North Texas	27	UT San Antonio -8.5	UTSA	70.0	Over
2022	10/22	UTSA	31	North Texas	27	UT San Antonio -10	North Texas	73.0	Under
2021	11/27	North Texas	45	UTSA	23	UT San Antonio -8.5	North Texas	60.0	Over
2020	11/28	UTSA	49	North Texas	17	UT San Antonio -1.5	UTSA	67.0	Under
2019	09/21	North Texas	45	UTSA	3	North Texas -17.5	North Texas	57.0	Under
2018	11/24	UTSA	21	North Texas	24	North Texas -25	UTSA	51.5	Under
2017	10/14	North Texas	29	UTSA	26	UT San Antonio -2.5	North Texas	58.5	Under
2016	10/29	UTSA	31	North Texas	17	UT San Antonio -4	UTSA	51.0	Under
2015	10/31	North Texas	30	UTSA	23	UT San Antonio -12	North Texas	54.5	Under
2014	11/29	UTSA	34	North Texas	27	UT San Antonio -6	UTSA	0
2013	11/23	North Texas	13	UTSA	21	North Texas -7	UTSA	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Texas	6	6	4 Overs
UTSA	8	8	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 3	11 - 3	7 - 2	4 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 11	3 - 11	1 - 4	2 - 7

(#55) UTSA at (#90) UNT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTSA	UNT
Power RatePwr	#55	#90
SP+SP+	#49	#88
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#59
OffenseOff	#53	#35
DefenseDef	#73	#112
Spec TeamsST	#122	#19
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

UTSA Injury Report

North Texas Injury Report

UTSA on Offense


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	UNT Def
Perf GradePerf	#53	#112
SuccessSuc	#66	#131
ExplosiveExp	#21	#81
PPAPPA	#45	#132
PowerPwr	#51	#131
SP+SP+	#42	#133
Pts POPPO	#24	#130
HavocHav	#46	#132

UTSA Run Game


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#40	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#129
Run ExplRExp	#13	#120
PPAExp	#48	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	#88	#129
Stuff RateStuff	#68	#107
TackleTak	-	#102

UTSA Pass Game


CategoryCat	UTSA Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#101
Pass SuccessPSuc	#49	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#60	#62
PPAExp	#58	#115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#106	#86
F7 HavocF7	#45	#133
DB HavocDB	#64	#118

North Texas on Offense


CategoryCat	UNT Off	UTSA Def
Perf GradePerf	#35	#73
SuccessSuc	#42	#21
ExplosiveExp	#5	#112
PPAPPA	#28	#35
PowerPwr	#27	#43
SP+SP+	#30	#75
Pts POPPO	#28	#65
HavocHav	#86	#10

North Texas Run Game


CategoryCat	UNT Off	UTSA Def
Run GameRun	#50	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#26
Run ExplRExp	#1	#118
PPAExp	#7	#52
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#27
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#45
TackleTak	-	#96

North Texas Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNT Off	UTSA Def
Pass GamePass	#12	#112
Pass SuccessPSuc	#42	#25
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#70
PPAExp	#63	#44
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#103	#24
F7 HavocF7	#71	#14
DB HavocDB	#96	#11

Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

UTSA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 74° - Wind: 17 mph

Rematch from Week 10
UTSA 7.5 (71.0)
UTSA won at North Texas this year (37-29)

Previous Matchups
UTSA beat North Texas last year (48-27)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2023 (37-29)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2022 (31-27)

UTSA's OC Justin Burke (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Frank Harris	218	336	65%	2506	18	8	7.5
Owen McCown (Tr)	43	58	74%	442	4	3	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevorian Barnes	147	715	6	4.9	44
Robert Henry	127	588	11	4.6	43
Rocko Griffin (Tr)	91	483	6	5.3	69
Frank Harris	86	323	4	3.8	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Cephus	89	1151	10	12.9	84
Tykee Ogle-Kellogg	33	575	7	17.4	46
Devin Mccuin	42	546	3	13.0	72
Oscar Cardenas	32	280	2	8.8	28

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ken Robinson	65	2	0	1	4
Jamal Ligon	62	7	1	5	1
Martavius French	61	5	2	4	3
Rashad Wisdom	61	2	2	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Moore	45	18	14	3	3
Brandon Matterson	14	6	5	5	0
Jimmori Robinson	40	11	5	10	2
Nick Booker-Brown	18	7	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameryn Alexander (Tr)	34	2	1	1	15
Nicktroy Fortune	26	1	0	2	9
Ken Robinson	65	2	0	1	4

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Rogers (Tr)	262	422	62%	3383	29	5	8.0
Stone Earle	22	40	55%	274	4	4	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ayo Adeyi	143	1017	6	7.1	47
Oscar Adaway III	123	738	6	6.0	77
Isaiah Johnson	37	229	3	6.2	28
Chandler Rogers (Tr)	109	180	4	1.7	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jay Maclin	57	1004	11	17.6	80
Damon Ward Jr.	39	487	5	12.5	59
Roderic Burns	41	467	4	11.4	42
Trey Cleveland (Tr)	27	415	3	15.4	33

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Brown	77	5	4	5	0
Patrick Smith	70	0	0	0	1
Ethan Wesloski	59	7	2	2	0
Logan Wilson	53	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Brown	77	5	4	5	0
Mazin Richards	44	11	3	10	0
Kevin Wood	37	3	2	1	1
Kadron Johnson	5	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	33	3	2	7
Evan Jackson	27	0	0	3
Brian Nelson II	6	0	0	3