North Texas at Navy - 2023 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo   North Texas Mean Green at Navy Midshipmen  Navy logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Navy -6.5 (60.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Navy 27 - North Texas: 24  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Eric Morris (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Texas -3  (SP+ UNT -6.5)
Projected Score: UNT: 33 - NAVY: 30 (63)
NAVY Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UNT Travel: 1217 miles, 1 hrs behind
Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Texas vs California+5.053.5L 21 - 58ON
Sat 9/9 North Texas at Florida International-10.551.5L 39 - 46ON
Sat 9/16 North Texas at Louisiana Tech+4.566.5W 40 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 North Texas vs Abilene Christian-15.570.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 10/7 North Texas at Navy+6.560.5L 24 - 27UY
Sat 10/14 North Texas vs Temple-8.065.5W 45 - 14UY
Sat 10/21 North Texas at Tulane+20.063.5L 28 - 35UY
Sat 10/28 North Texas vs Memphis+6.570.0L 42 - 45OY
Sat 11/4 North Texas vs UTSA+7.571.0L 29 - 37UN
Fri 11/10 North Texas at SMU+21.567.5L 21 - 45UN
Sat 11/18 North Texas at Tulsa-1.569.5W 35 - 28UY
Sat 11/25 North Texas vs UAB-3.072.5W 45 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Navy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Navy vs Notre Dame+20.549.0L 3 - 42UN
Sat 9/9 Navy vs Wagner-43.549.0W 24 - 0UN
Thu 9/14 Navy at Memphis+12.547.0L 24 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 Navy vs South Florida-4.054.0L 30 - 44ON
Sat 10/7 Navy vs North Texas-6.560.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 10/14 Navy at Charlotte-3.544.0W 14 - 0UY
Sat 10/21 Navy vs Air Force+11.034.0L 6 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Navy at Temple-7.046.0L 18 - 32ON
Sat 11/11 Navy vs UAB+3.552.5W 31 - 6UY
Sat 11/18 Navy vs East Carolina-2.530.5W 10 - 0UY
Sat 11/25 Navy at SMU+20.046.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9 Navy vs Army+2.028.0L 11 - 17UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT.2341%45.140%2.9719842%2624.46.2847%26.550%44%4.2441.41.61.4
NAVY.1537%31.539%2.9924129%863.56.2439%2534%43%3.7231.31.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1445.143.740.6%4.461.6224601982625.253%46%40%42%14%.23
NAVY Defense122524.238.6%3.721.7 - - - - - 50%50%34%43%25%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1426.528.347.2%4.241.4 - - - - - 51%48%50%44%13%.28
NAVY Offense1231.53836.7%3.561.318327241864.182%17%39%29%14%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1427:2121.743%61%5.241.41.61.43.91.9226.3
Navy1234:3717.638%62%3.831.31.31.76.12.8028.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1453%40%38.3197.95.224.172.9769%6%1.11
NAVY Defense1250%34% - - - - .012.669%17%1.03
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1451%50% - - - - .283.6471%8%0.97
NAVY Offense1282%39%59241.24.122.162.9975%12%1.15

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1446%42%17.230.7261.98.515.23416.361.930%36%.538%2.3
NAVY Defense1250%43% - - - - - - 8.51.936%32%.478%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1448%44% - - - - - - 8.291.627%33%.46%1.9
NAVY Offense1217%29%4.510.585.88.219.196.22.633%27%.323%2.1

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.19  #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 21.84  #27
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.31  #131
2023 Talent Rating: 474.38  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
North Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
North Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #88
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #30
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6  #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -5.19   Navy: -9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -7.2   Navy: -13.9




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.22  #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74  #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60  #30
2023 Talent Rating: 30.00  #212
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9  #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 33
Navy 30

Projected Total Points: 63
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01North Texas31Navy17North Texas -6.5North Texas68.5Under
202310/07Navy27North Texas24Navy -6.5North Texas60.5Under
200711/10North Texas62Navy74
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy200 Overs
North Texas122 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#90) UNT at (#116) NAVY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTNAVY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #90 #116
SP+SP+ #88 #114
Perf GradeGrade #59 #105
OffenseOff #35 #114
DefenseDef #112 #64
Spec TeamsST #19 #49
TalentTal #97 #212
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
North Texas on Offense
CategoryCat
UNT OffNAVY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35 #64
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #27 #30
SP+SP+ #30 #72
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Texas Run Game
CategoryCat
UNT OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #50 #62
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #89
North Texas Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNT OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #12 #88
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #103 #88
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Navy on Offense
CategoryCatNAVY OffUNT Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #114 #112
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #126 #131
SP+SP+ #124 #133
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Navy Run Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #125 #116
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #19 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #102
Navy Pass Game
CategoryCatNAVY OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #127 #101
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #136 #86
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Navy -6.5 (60.5)
Navy won vs North Texas this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Navy last year (31-17)
Navy beat North Texas in 2023 (27-24)

  
UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Rogers (Tr)26242262%33832958.0
Stone Earle224055%274446.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ayo Adeyi143101767.147
Oscar Adaway III12373866.077
Isaiah Johnson3722936.228
Chandler Rogers (Tr)10918041.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jay Maclin5710041117.680
Damon Ward Jr.39487512.559
Roderic Burns41467411.442
Trey Cleveland (Tr)27415315.433

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Patrick Smith700001
Ethan Wesloski597220
Logan Wilson531003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Mazin Richards44113100
Kevin Wood373211
Kadron Johnson52220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ridge Texada333027
Evan Jackson270003
Brian Nelson II60003

NAVY's OC Grant Chesnut (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tai Lavatai5610155%701526.9
Xavier Arline234452%320227.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Alex Tecza12675856.075
Daba Fofana7228333.920
Xavier Arline7725723.350
Tai Lavatai7524523.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich19382420.169
Brandon Chatman19254013.458
Jayden Umbarger14145110.422
Alex Tecza169706.116

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Ramos948264
Will Harbour768340
Rayuan Lane623117
Mbiti Williams Jr.550003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Reed448551
Landon Robinson285410
Luke Pirris529413
Will Harbour768340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rayuan Lane623117
Colin Ramos948264
Dashaun Peele321004