North Texas at Navy - 2023 Matchup Preview

North Texas Mean Green at Navy Midshipmen

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Navy -6.5 (60.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Navy 27 - North Texas: 24 (American Athletic)

Mean Green (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Eric Morris (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 35 - 37 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Texas -3 (SP+ UNT -6.5)
Projected Score: UNT: 30 - NAVY: 27 (57)
NAVY Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UNT Travel: 1217 miles, 1 hrs behind

Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNT Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Texas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Texas vs California	+5.0	53.5	L 21 - 58	O	N
Sat 9/9	North Texas at Florida International	-10.5	51.5	L 39 - 46	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Texas at Louisiana Tech	+4.5	66.5	W 40 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	North Texas vs Abilene Christian	-15.5	70.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/7	North Texas at Navy	+6.5	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Texas vs Temple	-8.0	65.5	W 45 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	North Texas at Tulane	+20.0	63.5	L 28 - 35	U	Y
Sat 10/28	North Texas vs Memphis	+6.5	70.0	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/4	North Texas vs UTSA	+7.5	71.0	L 29 - 37	U	N
Fri 11/10	North Texas at SMU	+21.5	67.5	L 21 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/18	North Texas at Tulsa	-1.5	69.5	W 35 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/25	North Texas vs UAB	-3.0	72.5	W 45 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Navy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+20.5	49.0	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/9	Navy vs Wagner	-43.5	49.0	W 24 - 0	U	N
Thu 9/14	Navy at Memphis	+12.5	47.0	L 24 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	Navy vs South Florida	-4.0	54.0	L 30 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/7	Navy vs North Texas	-6.5	60.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Navy at Charlotte	-3.5	44.0	W 14 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Navy vs Air Force	+11.0	34.0	L 6 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Navy at Temple	-7.0	46.0	L 18 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/11	Navy vs UAB	+3.5	52.5	W 31 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Navy vs East Carolina	-2.5	30.5	W 10 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Navy at SMU	+20.0	46.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9	Navy vs Army	+2.0	28.0	L 11 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	34.5	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	37.1	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2
NAVY	#121 (.07)	37% (117)	17.7	39% (111)	2.86 (108)	195	32% (131)	106	2.38 (133)	#45 (.15)	41% (51)	22.4	37% (23)	45% (114)	2.84 (7)	46	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)		40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)		47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1
NAVY	#12 (.31)	44% (51)		46% (43)	3.27 (32)	231	39% (101)	117	4.39 (26)	#28 (.1)	41% (61)		46% (95)	37% (24)	3.48 (35)	41.9	1.1	1.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Offense	12	34.5	31.2	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28
NAVY Defense	12	22.4	15.2	40.6%	2.84	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	45%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Defense	12	37.1	36.3	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34
NAVY Offense	12	17.7	21.3	37.1%	2.38	1	15	300	195	106	4.3	71%	29%	39%	32%	14%	.07

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6
Navy	12	31:15	14.5	29%	62%	5.7	46	1	2	5.2	2.3	1	32.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)
NAVY Defense	12	50% (67)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	.02 (15)	2.87 (30)	67% (34)	11% (36)	0.86 (16)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)
NAVY Offense	12	71% (3)	39% (111)	45.7	194.6	4.3	16 (89)	.07 (110)	2.86 (108)	72% (83)	12% (101)	1.02 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)
NAVY Defense	12	49% (65)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (103)	1.6 (75)	31% (97)	28% (40)	.34 (83)	6% (88)	2.2 (113)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)
NAVY Offense	12	29% (131)	32% (131)	8.5	16.6	105.7	6.4	12.4	10 (120)	5 (6)	.11 (121)	1.8 (15)	31% (61)	21% (132)	.06 (131)	2% (3)	2 (88)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.19 #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 21.84 #27
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.31 #131
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
North Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
North Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #30
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6 #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -5.19 Navy: -9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -7.2 Navy: -13.9

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 34.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 37.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

North Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
North Texas 30
Navy 27

Total Points: 57

Navy Scoring
Offense: 17.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.3
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/07	Navy	27	North Texas	24	Navy	Navy -6.5	North Texas	60.5	Under
2007	11/10	North Texas	62	Navy	74	Navy

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	2	0	0 Overs
North Texas	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#90) North Texas Info
Power Rating: -5.19 #90
Offense Rating: 21.84 #27
Defense Rating: 19.31 #131
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #30
Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6 #133
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10

North Texas has won 2 straight
North Texas has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

North Texas Highlights
North Texas offense is explosive (#20)
North Texas has a top Offensive Line (#28)
North Texas offense is good in red zone (#6)
North Texas commits very few Penalties (#59)

North Texas Deficiencies
North Texas Fumbles a Lot (#42)
North Texas Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
North Texas does not Sack the QB (#47)
North Texas has a bad defense (#26)
North Texas Does Not Stuff Runs (#82)
North Texas has a bad defensive line (#38)
North Texas has a bad red zone defense (#23)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	NAVY	UNT
OverallOver	#87	#48
OffenseOff	#97	#32
DefenseDef	#53	#85
Special TeamsST	#42	#19
PassingPass	#107	#11
RushingRush	#91	#35
Run BlockRBLK	#17	#36
Pass BlockPBLK	#118	#87
Route RunningWR Rt	#113	#49
TacklingTkl	#77	#88
Run DefenseR Def	#54	#98
Pass Rush DefPRush	#69	#68
Coverage DefCov	#72	#82

Rematch from Week 6
Navy -6.5 (60.5)
Navy won vs North Texas this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat North Texas in 2023 (27-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNT | NAVY
Depth Chart: UNT | NAVY
Rosters: UNT | NAVY

(#116) Navy Info
Power Rating: -9.22 #116
Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80

Navy has lost 2 straight
Navy has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (2 - 3 - 1 vs Spread)

Navy Highlights
Navy defense is really good in red zone (#73)
Navy has a good run defense (#23)
Navy Defensive Line is very good (#37)
Navy has a great TO Margin (#54)

Navy Deficiencies
Navy has a really bad Offense
Navy offense is really bad (#5)
Navy offense is not Explosive (#102)
Navy offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#31)
Navy run game is really bad (#4)
Navy pass game is really bad (#32)
Navy offense is bad on 3rd Downs

North Texas's OC Jordan Davis

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Rogers (Tr)	262	422	62%	3383	29	5	8.0
Stone Earle	22	40	55%	274	4	4	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ayo Adeyi	143	1017	6	7.1	47
Oscar Adaway III	123	738	6	6.0	77
Isaiah Johnson	37	229	3	6.2	28
Chandler Rogers (Tr)	109	180	4	1.7	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jay Maclin	57	1004	11	17.6	80
Damon Ward Jr.	39	487	5	12.5	59
Roderic Burns	41	467	4	11.4	42
Trey Cleveland (Tr)	27	415	3	15.4	33

View North Texas's Full Roster

North Texas's DC Matt Caponi

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Brown	77	5	4	5	0
Patrick Smith	70	0	0	0	1
Ethan Wesloski	59	7	2	2	0
Logan Wilson	53	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Brown	77	5	4	5	0
Mazin Richards	44	11	3	10	0
Kevin Wood	37	3	2	1	1
Kadron Johnson	5	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	33	3	2	7
Evan Jackson	27	0	0	3
Brian Nelson II	6	0	0	3

Navy's OC Grant Chesnut

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tai Lavatai	56	101	55%	701	5	2	6.9
Xavier Arline	23	44	52%	320	2	2	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alex Tecza	126	758	5	6.0	75
Daba Fofana	72	283	3	3.9	20
Xavier Arline	77	257	2	3.3	50
Tai Lavatai	75	245	2	3.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	19	382	4	20.1	69
Brandon Chatman	19	254	0	13.4	58
Jayden Umbarger	14	145	1	10.4	22
Alex Tecza	16	97	0	6.1	16

View Navy's Full Roster

Navy's DC P.J. Volker

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Mbiti Williams Jr.	55	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	44	8	5	5	1
Landon Robinson	28	5	4	1	0
Luke Pirris	52	9	4	1	3
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Dashaun Peele	32	1	0	0	4