SMU at East Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview

Thursday, October 12th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
SMU -11.5 (48.5) (-440) Open: -9.0 | 50.5
SMU 31 - East Carolina: 10 (American Athletic)

Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SMU coming off BYE
ECU coming off BYE
Our Line: SMU -20 (SP+ SMU -24)
Projected Score: SMU: 35 - ECU: 15 (51)
SMU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
SMU Travel: 1124 miles, 1 hrs behind

Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	SMU vs Louisiana Tech	-21.0	66.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	SMU at Oklahoma	+16.5	68.5	L 11 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/16	SMU vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	63.5	W 69 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/23	SMU at TCU	+7.0	63.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/30	SMU vs Charlotte	-22.5	53.0	W 34 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	SMU at East Carolina	-11.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 10/20	SMU at Temple	-24.0	53.0	W 55 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/28	SMU vs Tulsa	-20.5	55.0	W 69 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/4	SMU at Rice	-12.0	59.5	W 36 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/10	SMU vs North Texas	-21.5	67.5	W 45 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	SMU at Memphis	-9.5	64.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/25	SMU vs Navy	-20.0	46.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/2	SMU at Tulane	+4.0	50.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Thu 12/28	SMU vs Boston College	-13.5	49.0	L 14 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	East Carolina at Michigan	+36.0	53.5	L 3 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/9	East Carolina vs Marshall	+3.0	43.5	L 13 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	East Carolina at App State	+7.5	48.5	L 28 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/23	East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	East Carolina at Rice	+3.5	47.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	East Carolina vs SMU	+11.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/28	East Carolina at UTSA	+17.5	48.0	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/4	East Carolina vs Tulane	+17.0	46.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/11	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	+7.5	44.5	W 22 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	East Carolina at Navy	+2.5	30.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-4.5	44.5	L 27 - 29	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	.26	45%	32.2	45%	3.13	156	45%	317	4.58	.26	43%	20.5	46%	40%	4.32	41.7	1.5	1.7
ECU	.28	45%	32.7	45%	3.08	171	45%	290	3.84	.24	45%	20.1	42%	48%	4.14	37.6	0.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	13	32.2	29.8	44.8%	4.58	1.5	25	473	156	317	4.1	47%	52%	45%	45%	13%	.26
ECU Defense	13	20.1	19.8	45.1%	4.14	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	42%	48%	18%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	13	20.5	22.2	43%	4.32	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	40%	13%	.26
ECU Offense	13	32.7	36.2	45%	3.84	0.5	23	461	171	290	5.2	46%	54%	45%	45%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	13	27:42	25.5	48%	59%	4.2	41.7	1.5	1.7	4.8	2.1	0	29.7
East Carolina	13	31:11	22.5	46%	45%	4.3	37.6	0.5	1.5	5.4	1.8	2	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	13	47%	45%	37.8	156.2	4.1	26	.17	3.13	72%	9%	0.93
ECU Defense	13	39%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.83	59%	11%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	13	54%	46%	-	-	-	-	.29	3.23	74%	8%	1.16
ECU Offense	13	46%	45%	32.5	170.6	5.2	25	.21	3.08	68%	9%	1.13

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	13	52%	45%	25.6	39.5	316.7	8	12.4	36	11	.37	1.7	31%	35%	.48	5%	2.2
ECU Defense	13	59%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.39	1.5	31%	36%	.4	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	13	45%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.31	1.7	32%	30%	.37	5%	2.2
ECU Offense	13	54%	45%	24.8	37.2	290.5	7.8	11.7	28	5	.35	1.5	32%	34%	.49	8%	2.1

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 11.11 #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
2023 Talent Rating: 714.21 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 11.11 East Carolina: -8.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 10.5 East Carolina: -13.3

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -8.96 #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
2023 Talent Rating: 563.94 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 35
East Carolina 15

Projected Total Points: 51

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/12	East Carolina	10	SMU	31	SMU -11.5	SMU	48.5	Under
2020	11/28	East Carolina	52	SMU	38	SMU -12	East Carolina	72.0	Over
2019	11/09	SMU	59	East Carolina	51	SMU -23	East Carolina	74.0	Over
2016	11/12	East Carolina	31	SMU	55	East Carolina -5	SMU	63.0	Over
2015	10/03	SMU	23	East Carolina	49	East Carolina -6.5	East Carolina	64.5	Over
2014	10/04	East Carolina	45	SMU	24	East Carolina -35.5	SMU	0
2010	11/26	East Carolina	38	SMU	45
2009	10/10	SMU	28	East Carolina	21
2006	10/21	East Carolina	38	SMU	21
2005	10/15	SMU	17	East Carolina	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	5	3	4 Overs
SMU	5	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 5	1 - 5	0 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 5	5 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 0

(#19) SMU at (#117) ECU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	ECU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#19	#117
SP+SP+	#25	#111
Perf GradeGrade	#7	#127
OffenseOff	#10	#134
DefenseDef	#11	#71
Spec TeamsST	#53	#91
TalentTal	#34	#77
Blue ChipsBC%	#66	#69

SMU Injury Report

East Carolina Injury Report

SMU on Offense


CategoryCat	SMU Off	ECU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#26	#25
SP+SP+	#18	#81
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

SMU Run Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#106	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

SMU Pass Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#16	#107
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	SMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#11
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#132	#10
SP+SP+	#126	#41
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#92	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#47

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#135	#4
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
SMU 11.5 (48.5)
SMU won at East Carolina this year (31-10)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat East Carolina in 2023 (31-10)

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Preston Stone	206	344	60%	3197	28	6	9.3
Kevin Jennings	61	105	58%	618	5	2	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)	136	745	7	5.5	95
LJ Johnson Jr.	109	576	4	5.3	67
Camar Wheaton	83	410	5	4.9	48
Preston Stone	62	198	4	3.2	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jake Bailey	42	528	0	12.6	34
R.J. Maryland	34	518	7	15.2	62
Kelvontay Dixon	25	441	4	17.6	52
Romello Brinson (Tr)	28	431	2	15.4	74

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)	73	3	1	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	56	5	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker (Tr)	55	6	1	0	4
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)	37	13	9	7	2
Isaiah Smith	24	6	5	4	0
Elijah Chatman	31	8	5	3	0
Nelson Paul	22	7	5	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Charles Woods (Tr)	27	1	0	11
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	8
Chris Megginson (Tr)	18	0	0	6

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alex Flinn	159	290	55%	1558	6	12	5.4
Mason Garcia	48	95	51%	408	1	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	129	485	5	3.8	50
Mason Garcia	50	227	2	4.5	57
Javious Bond	41	221	1	5.4	39
Alex Flinn	97	178	0	1.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Sowell (Tr)	47	622	1	13.2	45
Jaylen Johnson	45	466	2	10.4	39
Jsi Hatfield	27	341	1	12.6	39
Jhari Patterson	20	137	0	6.9	30

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julius Wood	87	3	0	1	1
Michael Edwards III	58	8	1	1	0
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Anta Johnson	33	9	4	1	0
Chad Stephens	39	12	4	4	0
Jeremy Lewis	40	9	3	6	1
J.D. Lampley	16	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6
Teylor Jackson	51	5	1	3	4