SMU at East Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview

Thursday, October 12th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
SMU -11.5 (48.5) (-440) Open: -9.0 | 50.5
SMU 31 - East Carolina: 10 (American Athletic)

Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 39 - 18 (31 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SMU coming off BYE
ECU coming off BYE
Our Line: SMU -20 (SP+ SMU -24)
Projected Score: SMU: 34 - ECU: 14 (48)
SMU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
SMU Travel: 1124 miles, 1 hrs behind

Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 17 - 22 (19 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	SMU vs Louisiana Tech	-21.0	66.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	SMU at Oklahoma	+16.5	68.5	L 11 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/16	SMU vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	63.5	W 69 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/23	SMU at TCU	+7.0	63.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/30	SMU vs Charlotte	-22.5	53.0	W 34 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	SMU at East Carolina	-11.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 10/20	SMU at Temple	-24.0	53.0	W 55 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/28	SMU vs Tulsa	-20.5	55.0	W 69 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/4	SMU at Rice	-12.0	59.5	W 36 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/10	SMU vs North Texas	-21.5	67.5	W 45 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	SMU at Memphis	-9.5	64.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/25	SMU vs Navy	-20.0	46.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/2	SMU at Tulane	+4.0	50.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Thu 12/28	SMU vs Boston College	-13.5	49.0	L 14 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	East Carolina at Michigan	+36.0	53.5	L 3 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/9	East Carolina vs Marshall	+3.0	43.5	L 13 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	East Carolina at App State	+7.5	48.5	L 28 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/23	East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	East Carolina at Rice	+3.5	47.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	East Carolina vs SMU	+11.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/28	East Carolina at UTSA	+17.5	48.0	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/4	East Carolina vs Tulane	+17.0	46.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/11	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	+7.5	44.5	W 22 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	East Carolina at Navy	+2.5	30.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-4.5	44.5	L 27 - 29	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#24 (.28)	44% (46)	38.7	47% (30)	3.21 (49)	177	42% (67)	278	4.51 (21)	#7 (.04)	36% (10)	17.8	37% (17)	35% (8)	3.59 (51)	40.8	0.9	1.2
ECU	#132 (.02)	33% (132)	17.3	35% (128)	2.85 (111)	112	32% (130)	164	2.62 (129)	#40 (.14)	34% (6)	22.4	30% (2)	39% (37)	2.84 (8)	54.3	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)		44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)		39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6
ECU	#49 (.22)	43% (62)		44% (71)	3.07 (57)	147	43% (54)	253	3.79 (83)	#64 (.16)	40% (40)		37% (11)	43% (86)	3.85 (76)	61	2.2	1.6

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	14	38.7	30.6	43.9%	4.51	0.9	24	455	177	278	4.5	50%	49%	47%	42%	12%	.28
ECU Defense	12	22.4	19	34.3%	2.84	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	30%	39%	20%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	14	17.8	21.6	35.7%	3.59	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	37%	35%	19%	.04
ECU Offense	12	17.3	18.5	33.3%	2.62	1.8	15	276	112	164	3.5	46%	53%	35%	32%	20%	.02

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	14	30:21	23.5	43%	59%	4.6	40.8	0.9	1.2	6.6	3.1	5	30.4
East Carolina	12	28:59	15.1	30%	35%	5.8	54.3	1.8	1.3	6.9	1.5	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	14	50% (66)	47% (30)	39.7	176.6	4.5	29 (22)	.18 (52)	3.21 (49)	85% (2)	6% (4)	0.88 (122)
ECU Defense	12	51% (88)	30% (2)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (13)	2.53 (7)	74% (76)	13% (8)	1.19 (124)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	14	47% (38)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (19)	2.9 (35)	67% (30)	12% (23)	0.97 (50)
ECU Offense	12	46% (98)	35% (128)	32.2	111.7	3.5	12 (116)	.03 (123)	2.85 (111)	71% (90)	12% (108)	0.97 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	14	49% (71)	42% (67)	19.6	33.2	278.4	8.4	14.2	33 (11)	8 (30)	.45 (16)	2 (3)	31% (57)	33% (44)	.38 (53)	6% (58)	2.1 (46)
ECU Defense	12	48% (55)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.32 (100)	1.8 (126)	38% (6)	33% (107)	.43 (116)	6% (53)	2.2 (98)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	14	52% (97)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.09 (8)	1.7 (87)	36% (18)	22% (1)	.07 (2)	8% (19)	2.1 (70)
ECU Offense	12	53% (37)	32% (130)	17.3	32.3	163.9	5.1	9.5	7 (129)	14 (107)	.05 (129)	1.5 (92)	38% (133)	22% (129)	.11 (127)	8% (116)	2.1 (55)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 11.11 #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 11.11 East Carolina: -8.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 10.5 East Carolina: -13.3

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -8.96 #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

SMU Scoring
Offense: 38.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.6
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.6

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 34
East Carolina 14

Total Points: 48

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 17.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.5
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 19

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/12	East Carolina	10	SMU	31	SMU	SMU -11.5	SMU	48.5	Under
2020	11/28	East Carolina	52	SMU	38	East Carolina	SMU -12	East Carolina	72.0	Over
2019	11/09	SMU	59	East Carolina	51	SMU	SMU -23	East Carolina	74.0	Over
2016	11/12	East Carolina	31	SMU	55	SMU	East Carolina -5	SMU	63.0	Over
2015	10/03	SMU	23	East Carolina	49	East Carolina	East Carolina -6.5	East Carolina	64.5	Over
2014	10/04	East Carolina	45	SMU	24	East Carolina	East Carolina -35.5	SMU	0
2010	11/26	East Carolina	38	SMU	45	SMU
2009	10/10	SMU	28	East Carolina	21	SMU
2006	10/21	East Carolina	38	SMU	21	East Carolina
2005	10/15	SMU	17	East Carolina	24	East Carolina

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	5	3	4 Overs
SMU	5	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 5	1 - 5	0 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 5	5 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 0

(#19) SMU Info
Power Rating: 11.11 #19
Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10

SMU has won 1 straight
SMU has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 2 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

SMU Highlights
SMU has Really Good Running Game (#66)
SMU offense is explosive (#37)
SMU offense is good in red zone (#80)
SMU Defense Sacks the QB a lot

SMU has a really good defense (#109)
SMU has a good run defense (#62)
SMU has a good pass defense (#127)
SMU Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#28)
SMU Front 7 is disruptive (#88)
SMU Secondary is very good (#8)
SMU has a great TO Margin (#116)

SMU Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	ECU	SMU
OverallOver	#106	#6
OffenseOff	#115	#10
DefenseDef	#57	#8
Special TeamsST	#72	#45
PassingPass	#97	#4
RushingRush	#65	#75
Run BlockRBLK	#87	#6
Pass BlockPBLK	#117	#14
Route RunningWR Rt	#114	#23
TacklingTkl	#12	#42
Run DefenseR Def	#34	#23
Pass Rush DefPRush	#82	#3
Coverage DefCov	#87	#11

Rematch from Week 7
SMU 11.5 (48.5)
SMU won at East Carolina this year (31-10)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat East Carolina in 2023 (31-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SMU | ECU
Depth Chart: SMU | ECU
Rosters: SMU | ECU

(#117) East Carolina Info
Power Rating: -8.96 #117
Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50

East Carolina has lost 1 straight
East Carolina has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 5 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

East Carolina Highlights
East Carolina has a really good defense (#34)
East Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#20)
East Carolina has a good run defense (#44)
East Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#5)
East Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#15)
East Carolina Front 7 is disruptive (#3)

East Carolina Deficiencies
East Carolina has a really bad Offense
East Carolina has a really bad Offense at Home
East Carolina Can Not Run the Ball (#86)
East Carolina throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
East Carolina offense is really bad (#73)
East Carolina offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#66)
East Carolina run game is really bad (#132)
East Carolina pass game is really bad (#23)
East Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs
East Carolina does not Sack the QB (#31)
East Carolina gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#91)

SMU's OC Casey Woods

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Preston Stone	206	344	60%	3197	28	6	9.3
Kevin Jennings	61	105	58%	618	5	2	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)	136	745	7	5.5	95
LJ Johnson Jr.	109	576	4	5.3	67
Camar Wheaton	83	410	5	4.9	48
Preston Stone	62	198	4	3.2	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jake Bailey	42	528	0	12.6	34
R.J. Maryland	34	518	7	15.2	62
Kelvontay Dixon	25	441	4	17.6	52
Romello Brinson (Tr)	28	431	2	15.4	74

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)	73	3	1	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	56	5	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker (Tr)	55	6	1	0	4
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)	37	13	9	7	2
Isaiah Smith	24	6	5	4	0
Elijah Chatman	31	8	5	3	0
Nelson Paul	22	7	5	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Charles Woods (Tr)	27	1	0	11
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	8
Chris Megginson (Tr)	18	0	0	6

East Carolina's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alex Flinn	159	290	55%	1558	6	12	5.4
Mason Garcia	48	95	51%	408	1	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	129	485	5	3.8	50
Mason Garcia	50	227	2	4.5	57
Javious Bond	41	221	1	5.4	39
Alex Flinn	97	178	0	1.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Sowell (Tr)	47	622	1	13.2	45
Jaylen Johnson	45	466	2	10.4	39
Jsi Hatfield	27	341	1	12.6	39
Jhari Patterson	20	137	0	6.9	30

View East Carolina's Full Roster

East Carolina's DC Blake Harrell

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julius Wood	87	3	0	1	1
Michael Edwards III	58	8	1	1	0
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Anta Johnson	33	9	4	1	0
Chad Stephens	39	12	4	4	0
Jeremy Lewis	40	9	3	6	1
J.D. Lampley	16	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6
Teylor Jackson	51	5	1	3	4