Navy at SMU - 2023 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
SMU -20 (46.0) (-1350)  Open: -20.0 | 45.5
SMU 59 - Navy: 14  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (18 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SMU is playing their 7th straight game
NAVY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -25  (SP+ SMU -24)
Projected Score: NAVY: 13 - SMU: 38 (51)
SMU Win prob: 93% | Cover: 53%
NAVY Travel: 1208 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 39 - 18 (52 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Navy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Navy vs Notre Dame+20.549.0L 3 - 42UN
Sat 9/9 Navy vs Wagner-43.549.0W 24 - 0UN
Thu 9/14 Navy at Memphis+12.547.0L 24 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 Navy vs South Florida-4.054.0L 30 - 44ON
Sat 10/7 Navy vs North Texas-6.560.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 10/14 Navy at Charlotte-3.544.0W 14 - 0UY
Sat 10/21 Navy vs Air Force+11.034.0L 6 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Navy at Temple-7.046.0L 18 - 32ON
Sat 11/11 Navy vs UAB+3.552.5W 31 - 6UY
Sat 11/18 Navy vs East Carolina-2.530.5W 10 - 0UY
Sat 11/25 Navy at SMU+20.046.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9 Navy vs Army+2.028.0L 11 - 17UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
SMU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 SMU vs Louisiana Tech-21.066.0W 38 - 14UY
Sat 9/9 SMU at Oklahoma+16.568.5L 11 - 28UN
Sat 9/16 SMU vs Prairie View A&M-42.563.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/23 SMU at TCU+7.063.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/30 SMU vs Charlotte-22.553.0W 34 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12 SMU at East Carolina-11.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Fri 10/20 SMU at Temple-24.053.0W 55 - 0OY
Sat 10/28 SMU vs Tulsa-20.555.0W 69 - 10OY
Sat 11/4 SMU at Rice-12.059.5W 36 - 31ON
Fri 11/10 SMU vs North Texas-21.567.5W 45 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 SMU at Memphis-9.564.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 11/25 SMU vs Navy-20.046.0W 59 - 14OY
Sat 12/2 SMU at Tulane+4.050.5W 26 - 14UY
Thu 12/28 SMU vs Boston College-13.549.0L 14 - 23UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#121 (.07)37% (117)17.739% (111)2.86 (108)19532% (131)1062.38 (133)#45 (.15)41% (51)22.437% (23)45% (114)2.84 (7)4612
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)38.747% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)17.837% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1217.717.537.1%2.381153001951064.371%29%39%32%14%.07
SMU Defense1417.812.535.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense1222.429.840.6%2.842 - - - - - 50%49%37%45%17%.15
SMU Offense1438.752.343.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1231:1514.529%62%5.746125.22.3132.4
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1271% (3)39% (111)45.7194.64.316 (89).07 (110)2.86 (108)72% (83)12% (101)1.02 (57)
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1250% (67)37% (23) - - - - .02 (15)2.87 (30)67% (34)11% (36)0.86 (16)
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1229% (131)32% (131)8.516.6105.76.412.410 (120)5 (6).11 (121)1.8 (15)31% (61)21% (132).06 (131)2% (3)2 (88)
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1249% (65)45% (114) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (103)1.6 (75)31% (97)28% (40).34 (83)6% (88)2.2 (113)
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.54  #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74  #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60  #30
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9  #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -9.54   SMU: 13.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: -13.9   SMU: 10.5




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.305  #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10  #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02  #10
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5  #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6  #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Navy Scoring
Offense: 17.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 38
Navy 13

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 37
Navy 18

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
SMU 36
Navy 17

Total Points: 53
SMU Scoring
Offense: 38.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52.3
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.5

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/25SMU59Navy14SMU -20SMU46.0Over
202210/14SMU40Navy34SMU -12.5Navy59.0Over
202110/09Navy24SMU31SMU -13.5Navy57.0Under
202010/31SMU51Navy37SMU -14.0Push0
201911/23Navy35SMU28Navy -3.5Navy68.5Under
201809/22SMU31Navy30Navy -6.5SMU57.5Over
201711/11Navy43SMU40Navy -1.5Navy66.0Over
201611/26SMU31Navy75Navy -8Navy65.5Over
201511/14Navy55SMU14Navy -20Navy59.5Over
201111/12SMU17Navy24
201010/16Navy28SMU21
200910/17SMU35Navy38
200810/25Navy34SMU7
200208/31SMU7Navy38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU526 Overs
Navy962 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 56 - 24 - 12 - 1
Road Teams5 - 92 - 61 - 21 - 4

(#116) NAVY at (#19) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYSMU
Power RatePwr #116 #19
SP+SP+ #114 #25
Perf GradeGrade #105 #7
OffenseOff #114 #10
DefenseDef #64 #11
Spec TeamsST #49 #53
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #66
Navy on Offense
CategoryCat
NAVY OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #114 #11
SuccessSuc #117 #10
ExplosiveExp #111 #86
PPAPPA #121 #7
PowerPwr #126 #10
SP+SP+ #124 #41
Pts POPPO #133 #51
HavocHav #33 #14
Navy Run Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #125 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #111 #17
Run ExplRExp #57 #50
PPAExp #110 #19
Run BlockR Blk #19 -
OL YdsOLY #108 #35
Stuff RateStuff #84 #27
TackleTak -  #47
Navy Pass Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #127 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #8
Pass ExplPExl #15 #87
PPAExp #121 #8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #136 #4
F7 HavocF7 #101 #23
DB HavocDB #3 #19
SMU on Offense
CategoryCatSMU OffNAVY Def
Perf GradePerf #10 #64
SuccessSuc #46 #51
ExplosiveExp #15 #59
PPAPPA #24 #45
PowerPwr #26 #30
SP+SP+ #18 #72
Pts POPPO #21 #7
HavocHav #8 #56
SMU Run Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #106 #62
Run SuccessRSuc #30 #23
Run ExplRExp #122 #16
PPAExp #52 #15
Run BlockR Blk #6 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #30
Stuff RateStuff #38 #33
TackleTak -  #89
SMU Pass Game
CategoryCatSMU OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #4 #88
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #114
Pass ExplPExl #3 #75
PPAExp #16 #103
Pass Block/RushP Blk #16 #88
F7 HavocF7 #4 #36
DB HavocDB #58 #88
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 58° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 13
SMU -20.0 (46.0)
SMU won vs Navy this year (59-14)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Navy in 2023 (59-14)
SMU beat Navy in 2022 (40-34)

  
NAVY's OC Grant Chesnut (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tai Lavatai5610155%701526.9
Xavier Arline234452%320227.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Alex Tecza12675856.075
Daba Fofana7228333.920
Xavier Arline7725723.350
Tai Lavatai7524523.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich19382420.169
Brandon Chatman19254013.458
Jayden Umbarger14145110.422
Alex Tecza169706.116

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Ramos948264
Will Harbour768340
Rayuan Lane623117
Mbiti Williams Jr.550003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Reed448551
Landon Robinson285410
Luke Pirris529413
Will Harbour768340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rayuan Lane623117
Colin Ramos948264
Dashaun Peele321004

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Preston Stone20634460%31972869.3
Kevin Jennings6110558%618525.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)13674575.595
LJ Johnson Jr.10957645.367
Camar Wheaton8341054.948
Preston Stone6219843.234
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jake Bailey42528012.634
R.J. Maryland34518715.262
Kelvontay Dixon25441417.652
Romello Brinson (Tr)28431215.474

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)733141
Isaiah Nwokobia565123
Ahmad Walker (Tr)556104
Jonathan McGill (Tr)465108
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)3713972
Isaiah Smith246540
Elijah Chatman318530
Nelson Paul227511
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Woods (Tr)2710011
Jonathan McGill (Tr)465108
Chris Megginson (Tr)180006