Navy at SMU - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
SMU -20 (46.0) (-1350) Open: -20.0 | 45.5
SMU 59 - Navy: 14 (American Athletic)

Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SMU is playing their 7th straight game
NAVY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -25 (SP+ SMU -24)
Projected Score: NAVY: 13 - SMU: 38 (51)
SMU Win prob: 93% | Cover: 53%
NAVY Travel: 1208 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Mustangs (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 3.1 (#5)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NAVY Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Navy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+20.5	49.0	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/9	Navy vs Wagner	-43.5	49.0	W 24 - 0	U	N
Thu 9/14	Navy at Memphis	+12.5	47.0	L 24 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	Navy vs South Florida	-4.0	54.0	L 30 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/7	Navy vs North Texas	-6.5	60.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Navy at Charlotte	-3.5	44.0	W 14 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Navy vs Air Force	+11.0	34.0	L 6 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Navy at Temple	-7.0	46.0	L 18 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/11	Navy vs UAB	+3.5	52.5	W 31 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Navy vs East Carolina	-2.5	30.5	W 10 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Navy at SMU	+20.0	46.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9	Navy vs Army	+2.0	28.0	L 11 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

SMU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	SMU vs Louisiana Tech	-21.0	66.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	SMU at Oklahoma	+16.5	68.5	L 11 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/16	SMU vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	63.5	W 69 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/23	SMU at TCU	+7.0	63.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/30	SMU vs Charlotte	-22.5	53.0	W 34 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	SMU at East Carolina	-11.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 10/20	SMU at Temple	-24.0	53.0	W 55 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/28	SMU vs Tulsa	-20.5	55.0	W 69 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/4	SMU at Rice	-12.0	59.5	W 36 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/10	SMU vs North Texas	-21.5	67.5	W 45 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	SMU at Memphis	-9.5	64.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/25	SMU vs Navy	-20.0	46.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/2	SMU at Tulane	+4.0	50.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Thu 12/28	SMU vs Boston College	-13.5	49.0	L 14 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	.15	37%	31.5	39%	2.99	241	29%	86	3.56	.24	39%	25	34%	43%	3.72	31.3	1.3	1.7
SMU	.26	45%	32.2	45%	3.13	156	45%	317	4.58	.26	43%	20.5	46%	40%	4.32	41.7	1.5	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	25.8	36.7%	3.56	1.3	18	327	241	86	4.1	82%	17%	39%	29%	14%	.15
SMU Defense	13	20.5	19.2	43%	4.32	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	40%	13%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Defense	12	25	30.2	38.6%	3.72	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	34%	43%	25%	.24
SMU Offense	13	32.2	36	44.8%	4.58	1.5	25	473	156	317	4.1	47%	52%	45%	45%	13%	.26

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Navy	12	34:37	17.6	38%	62%	3.8	31.3	1.3	1.7	6.1	2.8	0	28.3
SMU	13	27:42	25.5	48%	59%	4.2	41.7	1.5	1.7	4.8	2.1	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense	12	82%	39%	59	241.2	4.1	22	.16	2.99	75%	12%	1.15
SMU Defense	13	54%	46%	-	-	-	-	.29	3.23	74%	8%	1.16

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense	12	50%	34%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.6	69%	17%	1.03
SMU Offense	13	47%	45%	37.8	156.2	4.1	26	.17	3.13	72%	9%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense	12	17%	29%	4.5	10.5	85.8	8.2	19.1	9	6	.2	2.6	33%	27%	.32	3%	2.1
SMU Defense	13	45%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.31	1.7	32%	30%	.37	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense	12	50%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.5	1.9	36%	32%	.47	8%	2.3
SMU Offense	13	52%	45%	25.6	39.5	316.7	8	12.4	36	11	.37	1.7	31%	35%	.48	5%	2.2

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.54 #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74 #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60 #30
2023 Talent Rating: 30.00 #212
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -9.54 SMU: 13.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: -13.9 SMU: 10.5

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.305 #19
SMU's Offense Rating: 22.10 #26
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.02 #10
2023 Talent Rating: 714.21 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
SMU's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 3.10
SMU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #25
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #18
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 38
Navy 13

Projected Total Points: 51

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/25	SMU	59	Navy	14	SMU -20	SMU	46.0	Over
2022	10/14	SMU	40	Navy	34	SMU -12.5	Navy	59.0	Over
2021	10/09	Navy	24	SMU	31	SMU -13.5	Navy	57.0	Under
2020	10/31	SMU	51	Navy	37	SMU -14.0	Push	0
2019	11/23	Navy	35	SMU	28	Navy -3.5	Navy	68.5	Under
2018	09/22	SMU	31	Navy	30	Navy -6.5	SMU	57.5	Over
2017	11/11	Navy	43	SMU	40	Navy -1.5	Navy	66.0	Over
2016	11/26	SMU	31	Navy	75	Navy -8	Navy	65.5	Over
2015	11/14	Navy	55	SMU	14	Navy -20	Navy	59.5	Over
2011	11/12	SMU	17	Navy	24
2010	10/16	Navy	28	SMU	21
2009	10/17	SMU	35	Navy	38
2008	10/25	Navy	34	SMU	7
2002	08/31	SMU	7	Navy	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	5	2	6 Overs
Navy	9	6	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	6 - 2	4 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 2	1 - 4

(#116) NAVY at (#19) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NAVY	SMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#116	#19
SP+SP+	#114	#25
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#7
OffenseOff	#114	#10
DefenseDef	#64	#11
Spec TeamsST	#49	#53
TalentTal	#212	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#66

Navy Injury Report

SMU Injury Report

Navy on Offense


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	SMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#11
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#126	#10
SP+SP+	#124	#41
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Navy Run Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#125	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#47

Navy Pass Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#136	#4
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

SMU on Offense


CategoryCat	SMU Off	NAVY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#26	#30
SP+SP+	#18	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

SMU Run Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#106	#62
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#89

SMU Pass Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#88
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#16	#88
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
SMU -20.0 (46.0)
SMU won vs Navy this year (59-14)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Navy in 2023 (59-14)

NAVY's OC Grant Chesnut (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tai Lavatai	56	101	55%	701	5	2	6.9
Xavier Arline	23	44	52%	320	2	2	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alex Tecza	126	758	5	6.0	75
Daba Fofana	72	283	3	3.9	20
Xavier Arline	77	257	2	3.3	50
Tai Lavatai	75	245	2	3.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	19	382	4	20.1	69
Brandon Chatman	19	254	0	13.4	58
Jayden Umbarger	14	145	1	10.4	22
Alex Tecza	16	97	0	6.1	16

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Mbiti Williams Jr.	55	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	44	8	5	5	1
Landon Robinson	28	5	4	1	0
Luke Pirris	52	9	4	1	3
Will Harbour	76	8	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rayuan Lane	62	3	1	1	7
Colin Ramos	94	8	2	6	4
Dashaun Peele	32	1	0	0	4

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Preston Stone	206	344	60%	3197	28	6	9.3
Kevin Jennings	61	105	58%	618	5	2	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylan Knighton (Tr)	136	745	7	5.5	95
LJ Johnson Jr.	109	576	4	5.3	67
Camar Wheaton	83	410	5	4.9	48
Preston Stone	62	198	4	3.2	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jake Bailey	42	528	0	12.6	34
R.J. Maryland	34	518	7	15.2	62
Kelvontay Dixon	25	441	4	17.6	52
Romello Brinson (Tr)	28	431	2	15.4	74

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson (Tr)	73	3	1	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	56	5	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker (Tr)	55	6	1	0	4
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Roberts (Tr)	37	13	9	7	2
Isaiah Smith	24	6	5	4	0
Elijah Chatman	31	8	5	3	0
Nelson Paul	22	7	5	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Charles Woods (Tr)	27	1	0	11
Jonathan McGill (Tr)	46	5	1	8
Chris Megginson (Tr)	18	0	0	6