California at North Texas - 2023 Matchup Preview
California logo   California Golden Bears at North Texas Mean Green  North Texas logo
Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
California -5 (53.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
California 58 - North Texas: 21

 
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: California -3.5  (SP+ CAL -8.5)
Projected Score: CAL: 30 - UNT: 27 (57)
CAL Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
CAL Travel: 1442 miles, 2 hrs behind
Mean Green (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Eric Morris (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
California's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 California at North Texas-5.053.5W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 California vs Auburn+5.055.5L 10 - 14UY
Sat 9/16 California vs Idaho-14.552.5W 31 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 California at Washington+21.055.5L 32 - 59ON
Sat 9/30 California vs Arizona State-13.047.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/7 California vs Oregon State+7.551.0L 40 - 52ON
Sat 10/14 California at Utah+9.042.5L 14 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 California vs USC+10.567.5L 49 - 50OY
Sat 11/4 California at Oregon+26.561.5L 19 - 63ON
Sat 11/11 California vs Washington State-1.558.5W 42 - 39OY
Sat 11/18 California at Stanford-6.552.5W 27 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 California at UCLA+9.550.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 12/16 California vs Texas Tech+3.554.5L 14 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule
North Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Texas vs California+5.053.5L 21 - 58ON
Sat 9/9 North Texas at Florida International-10.551.5L 39 - 46ON
Sat 9/16 North Texas at Louisiana Tech+4.566.5W 40 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 North Texas vs Abilene Christian-15.570.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 10/7 North Texas at Navy+6.560.5L 24 - 27UY
Sat 10/14 North Texas vs Temple-8.065.5W 45 - 14UY
Sat 10/21 North Texas at Tulane+20.063.5L 28 - 35UY
Sat 10/28 North Texas vs Memphis+6.570.0L 42 - 45OY
Sat 11/4 North Texas vs UTSA+7.571.0L 29 - 37UN
Fri 11/10 North Texas at SMU+21.567.5L 21 - 45UN
Sat 11/18 North Texas at Tulsa-1.569.5W 35 - 28UY
Sat 11/25 North Texas vs UAB-3.072.5W 45 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL.1939%25.340%2.939738%2683.81.250%27.251%49%3.9544.612
UNT.2341%45.140%2.9719842%2624.46.2847%26.550%44%4.2441.41.61.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Offense1225.323.738.6%3.81119365972683.637%62%40%38%16%.19
UNT Defense1426.52247.2%4.241.4 - - - - - 51%48%50%44%13%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Defense1227.229.649.7%3.952 - - - - - 47%53%51%49%13%.2
UNT Offense1445.145.740.6%4.461.6224601982625.253%46%40%42%14%.23

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
California1228:4319.335%55%5.344.6124.41.3125.8
North Texas1427:2121.743%61%5.241.41.61.43.91.9226.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Offense1237%40%26.596.53.610.122.9363%11%1.05
UNT Defense1451%50% - - - - .283.6471%8%0.97
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Defense1247%51% - - - - .123.4277%8%0.77
UNT Offense1453%40%38.3197.95.224.172.9769%6%1.11

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Offense1262%38%24.338.8268.16.911.1239.271.636%29%.376%2.2
UNT Defense1448%44% - - - - - - 8.291.627%33%.46%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Defense1253%49% - - - - - - 11.321.428%28%.255%2
UNT Offense1446%42%17.230.7261.98.515.23416.361.930%36%.538%2.3

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: -1.90  #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66  #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83  #101
2023 Talent Rating: 681.14  #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
California: -1.90   North Texas: -3.695

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 1.1   North Texas: -7.2




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -3.695  #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 21.84  #27
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.31  #131
2023 Talent Rating: 474.38  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
North Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
North Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #88
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #30
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.6  #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
California 30
North Texas 27

Projected Total Points: 57
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/02North Texas21California58California -5California53.5Over
201909/14California23North Texas17California -14.5North Texas50.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas011 Overs
California211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams1 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#75) CAL at (#90) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCALUNT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #75 #90
SP+SP+ #61 #88
Perf GradeGrade #93 #59
OffenseOff #72 #35
DefenseDef #99 #112
Spec TeamsST #125 #19
TalentTal #45 #97
Blue ChipsBC% #43 #75
California on Offense
CategoryCat
CAL OffUNT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #112
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #75 #131
SP+SP+ #32 #133
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
California Run Game
CategoryCat
CAL OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #31 #116
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #102
California Pass Game
CategoryCat
CAL OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #77 #101
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #112 #86
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
North Texas on Offense
CategoryCatUNT OffCAL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35 #99
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #27 #101
SP+SP+ #30 #85
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Texas Run Game
CategoryCat
UNT OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #50 #121
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #120
North Texas Pass Game
CategoryCatUNT OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #12 #88
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #103 #37
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
California 5.0 (53.5)
California won at North Texas this year (58-21)

Previous Matchups
California beat North Texas in 2023 (58-21)

  
CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza15324363%170814107.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)519753%553525.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadyn Ott2451310125.366
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)7036575.226
Ashton Stredick4220024.841
Jaivian Thomas1811016.127
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Hunter63709711.350
Trond Grizzell39590515.154
Jack Endries35408211.732
Taj Davis (Tr)38393310.327

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)886117
Kaleb Elarms-Orr873166
Craig Woodson804104
Cade Uluave677203
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Reese (Tr)339843
Xavier Carlton506552
Cade Uluave677203
Nathan Burrell233211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)886117
Kaleb Elarms-Orr873166
Lu-Magia Hearns III270006

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Rogers (Tr)26242262%33832958.0
Stone Earle224055%274446.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ayo Adeyi143101767.147
Oscar Adaway III12373866.077
Isaiah Johnson3722936.228
Chandler Rogers (Tr)10918041.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jay Maclin5710041117.680
Damon Ward Jr.39487512.559
Roderic Burns41467411.442
Trey Cleveland (Tr)27415315.433

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Patrick Smith700001
Ethan Wesloski597220
Logan Wilson531003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Brown775450
Mazin Richards44113100
Kevin Wood373211
Kadron Johnson52220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ridge Texada333027
Evan Jackson270003
Brian Nelson II60003