Massachusetts at Army - 2023 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Army Black Knights

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Army -10 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Massachusetts 21 - Army: 14 (FBS Independents)

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS coming off BYE
ARMY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Army -8 (SP+ ARMY -13)
Projected Score: UMASS: 21 - ARMY: 29 (49)
ARMY Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
UMASS Travel: 100 miles

Black Knights (6 - 6) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Monken (66 - 50)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
ARMY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Army's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Army at UL Monroe	-8.5	47.0	L 13 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/9	Army vs Delaware State	-39.5	44.0	W 57 - 0	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Army at UTSA	+7.0	42.0	W 37 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Army at Syracuse	+13.0	50.5	L 16 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Army vs Boston College	-2.5	47.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/14	Army vs Troy	+6.5	41.5	L 0 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/21	Army at LSU	+33.0	60.0	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 10/28	Army vs Massachusetts	-10.0	49.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/4	Army vs Air Force	+18.5	32.0	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Army vs Holy Cross	-11.5	55.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/18	Army vs Coastal Carolina	+1.5	40.5	W 28 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9	Army vs Navy	-2.0	28.0	W 17 - 11	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	.01	32%	11.1	34%	2.8	150	31%	117	2.26	.2	40%	38.6	42%	38%	3.6	66.2	1.6	1.6
ARMY	.27	45%	23.8	48%	3.33	289	28%	77	4.25	.22	48%	21.6	50%	47%	3.69	38.8	1	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARMY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	9.3	32.4%	2.26	1.6	15	267	150	117	3.5	60%	39%	34%	31%	20%	.01
ARMY Defense	12	21.6	24.2	47.9%	3.69	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	61%	37%	50%	47%	13%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	42.5	40.1%	3.6	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	42%	38%	20%	.2
ARMY Offense	12	23.8	25.6	44.5%	4.25	1	18	366	289	77	5.4	85%	14%	48%	28%	11%	.27

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	31:55	14.6	28%	48%	7.6	66.2	1.6	1.6	6.1	1.6	1	27.5
Army	12	31:37	17.6	44%	53%	4.8	38.8	1	1.7	3.8	1.5	3	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	60%	34%	43.3	150.3	3.5	10	.03	2.8	69%	14%	0.93
ARMY Defense	12	61%	50%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.47	74%	8%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	60%	42%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.17	70%	13%	1.14
ARMY Offense	12	85%	48%	53.8	288.9	5.4	38	.27	3.33	74%	8%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	39%	31%	11.3	23.1	116.9	5.1	10.3	4	14	.01	1.6	37%	19%	.1	6%	2.1
ARMY Defense	12	37%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.33	1.5	26%	34%	.27	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	39%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.29	1.9	33%	28%	.28	7%	2.3
ARMY Offense	12	14%	28%	3.5	8.7	77	8.9	22	5	4	.32	2.3	25%	23%	.34	3%	2.2

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.09 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 565.65 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -11.09 Army: -6.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -17.7 Army: -5.2

Army's Power Ratings
Army's Power Rating: -6.225 #125
Army's Offense Rating: 11.86 #111
Army's Defense Rating: 11.47 #93
2023 Talent Rating: 20.00 #223
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Army's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
Army's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #82
Army's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #113
Army's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Army 29
Massachusetts 21

Projected Total Points: 49

Army Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.6
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Army's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Army	14	Massachusetts	21	Army -10	Massachusetts	49.5	Under
2022	11/26	Massachusetts	7	Army	44	Army -20	Army	45.5	Over
2021	11/20	Army	33	Massachusetts	17	Army -37.5	Massachusetts	56.0	Under
2019	11/09	Army	63	Massachusetts	7	Army -35.0	Army	61.0	Over
2005	11/12	Army	34	Massachusetts	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Army	4	2	2 Overs
Massachusetts	1	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	1 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	3 - 1	1 - 0	2 - 1

(#121) UMASS at (#125) ARMY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	ARMY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#121	#125
SP+SP+	#125	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#76
OffenseOff	#97	#100
DefenseDef	#135	#63
Spec TeamsST	#136	#12
TalentTal	#76	#223
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Massachusetts Injury Report

Army Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARMY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#63
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#59	#93
SP+SP+	#99	#41
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARMY Def
Run GameRun	#59	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#58

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARMY Def
Pass GamePass	#106	#58
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#80	#116
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Army on Offense


CategoryCat	ARMY Off	UMASS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#100	#135
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#111	#129
SP+SP+	#113	#124
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Army Run Game


CategoryCat	ARMY Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#117	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#113

Army Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARMY Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#136	#130
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#111	#114
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARMY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Blaik Field at Michie Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Army -10.0 (49.5)
Massachusetts won at Army this year (21-14)

Previous Matchups
Massachusetts beat Army in 2023 (21-14)

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	139	227	61%	1507	6	6	6.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)	62	101	61%	886	6	3	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	236	1157	12	4.9	47
Gregory DeRosiers	37	301	4	8.1	60
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	11	93	1	8.5	17
Ahmad Haston	16	54	0	3.4	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	57	792	3	13.9	71
George Johnson	35	421	3	12.0	32
Mark Pope (Tr)	33	420	1	12.7	54
Gino Campiotti	21	289	4	13.8	30

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Te'Rai Powell	59	1	0	2	3
Nahji Logan	59	3	1	1	1
Gerrell Johnson	51	2	0	0	0
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1
JB Brown (Tr)	38	5	3	4	1
Derrieon Craig	24	5	2	1	1
Zukudo Igwenagu	29	3	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Juan Lua	23	0	0	0	5
Tyler Rudolph	40	2	1	1	4
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)	31	0	0	1	4

ARMY's OC Matt Drinkall (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Daily	60	120	50%	913	7	6	7.6
Champ Harris	19	35	54%	260	0	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Daily	214	902	7	4.2	62
Kanye Udoh	99	524	1	5.3	23
Hayden Reed	50	205	2	4.1	27
Tyrell Robinson	39	187	2	4.8	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Alston	9	266	2	29.6	70
Noah Short	18	252	2	14.0	80
Casey Reynolds	16	237	0	14.8	69
Tobi Olawole	7	101	0	14.4	43

View Army's Full Roster

ARMY's DC Nate Woody (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Leo Lowin	75	5	3	0	1
Quindrelin Hammonds	57	4	3	0	2
Kalib Fortner	55	3	2	1	0
Max DiDomenico	47	2	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Leo Lowin	75	5	3	0	1
Jack Latore	20	4	3	0	0
Quindrelin Hammonds	57	4	3	0	2
Jimmy Ciarlo	47	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabari Moore	35	3	0	0	6
Quindrelin Hammonds	57	4	3	0	2
Cameron Jones	34	3	1	1	2