Massachusetts at Penn State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Penn State Nittany Lions(#2)

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -42 (55.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Penn State 63 - Massachusetts: 0

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 38 (20 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PSU coming off BYE
UMASS is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -40 (SP+ PSU -44)
Projected Score: UMASS: 8 - PSU: 48 (55)
PSU Win prob: 100% | Cover: 45%
UMASS Travel: 295 miles

Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 36 - 14 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Penn State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Penn State vs West Virginia	-21.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Penn State vs Delaware	-44.0	55.0	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Penn State at Illinois	-14.0	47.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Penn State vs Iowa	-14.0	38.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Penn State at Northwestern	-27.0	48.0	W 41 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Penn State vs Massachusetts	-42.0	55.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Penn State at Ohio State	+4.0	47.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Penn State vs Indiana	-31.0	45.0	W 33 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/4	Penn State at Maryland	-8.5	50.5	W 51 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Penn State vs Michigan	+4.0	44.5	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Penn State vs Rutgers	-19.5	39.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Penn State vs Michigan State	-20.0	42.0	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#72 (.18)	42% (68)	23.2	45% (47)	3.35 (21)	142	40% (86)	214	3.73 (82)	#124 (.31)	49% (132)	37.8	53% (131)	43% (92)	4.31 (114)	70.9	1.4	1.2
PSU	#40 (.25)	46% (25)	36.2	49% (17)	3.38 (14)	185	43% (53)	215	4.96 (5)	#8 (.04)	33% (3)	13.5	31% (3)	36% (10)	3.09 (15)	43.3	0.6	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)		43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)		51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)		52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)		39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	23.2	19.7	42%	3.73	1.4	18	356	142	214	4.4	51%	48%	45%	40%	21%	.18
PSU Defense	13	13.5	10.9	33.1%	3.09	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	31%	36%	23%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	37.8	39	48.5%	4.31	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	53%	43%	15%	.31
PSU Offense	13	36.2	38.6	46.3%	4.96	0.6	23	400	185	215	4.7	50%	49%	49%	43%	11%	.25

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	29:45	17.8	36%	23%	8	70.9	1.4	1.2	4.5	1.5	2	26.5
Penn State	13	32:30	22.5	41%	77%	5	43.3	0.6	1.8	7.8	3.8	3	33.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	51% (59)	45% (47)	32.5	142.2	4.4	19 (69)	.25 (18)	3.35 (21)	62% (125)	14% (127)	1.14 (11)
PSU Defense	13	49% (52)	31% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (7)	2.23 (2)	76% (89)	18% (1)	0.96 (46)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	58% (130)	53% (131)	-	-	-	-	.34 (131)	3.83 (133)	85% (123)	9% (89)	1 (69)
PSU Offense	13	50% (65)	49% (17)	39.6	184.8	4.7	26 (30)	.19 (46)	3.38 (14)	73% (77)	7% (8)	0.85 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	48% (76)	40% (86)	17.7	29	214.1	7.4	12.1	14 (106)	11 (68)	.18 (99)	1.5 (85)	32% (62)	33% (50)	.43 (35)	7% (109)	2.2 (36)
PSU Defense	13	50% (77)	36% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (25)	1.7 (94)	39% (2)	26% (19)	.21 (21)	6% (86)	2.1 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	42% (4)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (94)	1.8 (122)	29% (121)	37% (125)	.47 (124)	6% (90)	1.9 (30)
PSU Offense	13	49% (63)	43% (53)	18.9	31.7	215	6.8	11.4	30 (16)	2 (1)	.3 (62)	1.5 (115)	27% (9)	35% (23)	.38 (50)	4% (7)	1.7 (129)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.09 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -11.09 Penn State: 25.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -17.7 Penn State: 26.0

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 25.72 #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 48
Massachusetts 8

Total Points: 55

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 36.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.6
Defense: 13.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.9

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	Penn State	63	Massachusetts	0	Penn State	Penn State -42	Penn State	55.0	Over
2014	09/20	Penn State	48	Massachusetts	7	Penn State	Penn State -30	Penn State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	2	2	1 Overs
Massachusetts	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#121) Massachusetts Info
Power Rating: -11.09 #121
Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10

Massachusetts has lost 6 straight
Massachusetts has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Massachusetts Highlights
Massachusetts has a top Offensive Line (#124)
Massachusetts does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#124)

Massachusetts Deficiencies
Massachusetts Commits a Lot of Penalties (#49)
Massachusetts Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Massachusetts does not Sack the QB (#97)
Massachusetts has a bad defense (#87)
Massachusetts Does Not Stuff Runs (#133)
Massachusetts has a bad defensive line (#126)
Massachusetts has a bad red zone defense (#98)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	PSU	UMASS
OverallOver	#5	#111
OffenseOff	#24	#83
DefenseDef	#4	#108
Special TeamsST	#8	#111
PassingPass	#27	#90
RushingRush	#19	#42
Run BlockRBLK	#13	#64
Pass BlockPBLK	#52	#68
Route RunningWR Rt	#68	#71
TacklingTkl	#31	#96
Run DefenseR Def	#4	#111
Pass Rush DefPRush	#1	#85
Coverage DefCov	#16	#109

Rematch from Week 7
Penn State -42.0 (55.0)
Penn State won vs Massachusetts this year (63-0)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Massachusetts in 2023 (63-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UMASS | PSU
Depth Chart: UMASS | PSU
Rosters: UMASS | PSU

(#5) Penn State Info
Power Rating: 25.72 #5
Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #13
Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70

Penn State has won 5 straight
Penn State has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Penn State Highlights
Penn State has Really Good Running Game (#38)
Penn State offense is efficent (#25)
Penn State has a top Offensive Line (#13)
Penn State offense is good in red zone (#42)
Penn State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#3)

Penn State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Penn State has a really good defense (#6)
Penn State defense is really good in red zone (#5)
Penn State has a good run defense (#42)
Penn State has a good pass defense (#2)
Penn State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#50)
Penn State Defensive Line is very good (#12)
Penn State Front 7 is disruptive (#28)
Penn State has a great TO Margin (#11)

Penn State Deficiencies
Penn State offense is not Explosive (#114)
Penn State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#8)

Massachusetts's OC Steve Casula

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	139	227	61%	1507	6	6	6.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)	62	101	61%	886	6	3	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	236	1157	12	4.9	47
Gregory DeRosiers	37	301	4	8.1	60
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	11	93	1	8.5	17
Ahmad Haston	16	54	0	3.4	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	57	792	3	13.9	71
George Johnson	35	421	3	12.0	32
Mark Pope (Tr)	33	420	1	12.7	54
Gino Campiotti	21	289	4	13.8	30

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Te'Rai Powell	59	1	0	2	3
Nahji Logan	59	3	1	1	1
Gerrell Johnson	51	2	0	0	0
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1
JB Brown (Tr)	38	5	3	4	1
Derrieon Craig	24	5	2	1	1
Zukudo Igwenagu	29	3	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Juan Lua	23	0	0	0	5
Tyler Rudolph	40	2	1	1	4
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)	31	0	0	1	4

Penn State's OC Mike Yurcich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	233	388	60%	2631	25	2	6.8
Beau Pribula	11	21	52%	149	4	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	172	902	6	5.2	50
Nicholas Singleton	171	752	8	4.4	24
Beau Pribula	56	329	6	5.9	39
Drew Allar	74	210	4	2.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keandre Lambert	53	673	4	12.7	72
Tyler Warren	34	422	7	12.4	75
Theo Johnson	34	341	7	10.0	34
Nicholas Singleton	26	308	2	11.8	53

View Penn State's Full Roster

Penn State's DC Manny Diaz

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Winston Jr.	60	3	0	0	5
Kobe King	59	6	2	1	0
Curtis Jacobs	50	9	3	5	0
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adisa Isaac	37	16	8	4	0
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5
John Dixon	26	6	5	0	3
Demeioun Robinson	15	8	4	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daequan Hardy	22	3	1	0	7
Kevin Winston Jr.	60	3	0	0	5
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5