Massachusetts at Penn State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -42 (55.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Penn State 63 - Massachusetts: 0

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PSU coming off BYE
UMASS is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -40 (SP+ PSU -44)
Projected Score: UMASS: 7 - PSU: 47 (53)
PSU Win prob: 100% | Cover: 45%
UMASS Travel: 295 miles

Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Penn State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Penn State vs West Virginia	-21.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Penn State vs Delaware	-44.0	55.0	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Penn State at Illinois	-14.0	47.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Penn State vs Iowa	-14.0	38.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Penn State at Northwestern	-27.0	48.0	W 41 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Penn State vs Massachusetts	-42.0	55.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Penn State at Ohio State	+4.0	47.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Penn State vs Indiana	-31.0	45.0	W 33 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/4	Penn State at Maryland	-8.5	50.5	W 51 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Penn State vs Michigan	+4.0	44.5	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Penn State vs Rutgers	-19.5	39.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Penn State vs Michigan State	-20.0	42.0	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	.01	32%	11.1	34%	2.8	150	31%	117	2.26	.2	40%	38.6	42%	38%	3.6	66.2	1.6	1.6
PSU	.26	43%	31	41%	3.03	181	46%	253	4.61	.08	38%	20.5	43%	36%	3.39	48.3	1.1	2.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	9.3	32.4%	2.26	1.6	15	267	150	117	3.5	60%	39%	34%	31%	20%	.01
PSU Defense	13	20.5	15.1	38.5%	3.39	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	41%	59%	43%	36%	25%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	42.5	40.1%	3.6	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	42%	38%	20%	.2
PSU Offense	13	31	34	43.4%	4.61	1.1	21	434	181	253	4.8	51%	49%	41%	46%	13%	.26

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	31:55	14.6	28%	48%	7.6	66.2	1.6	1.6	6.1	1.6	1	27.5
Penn State	13	30:33	21.2	38%	70%	5.3	48.3	1.1	2.7	7.8	3.2	2	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	60%	34%	43.3	150.3	3.5	10	.03	2.8	69%	14%	0.93
PSU Defense	13	41%	43%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.66	72%	15%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	60%	42%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.17	70%	13%	1.14
PSU Offense	13	51%	41%	37.6	181.1	4.8	28	.18	3.03	75%	8%	1.17

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	39%	31%	11.3	23.1	116.9	5.1	10.3	4	14	.01	1.6	37%	19%	.1	6%	2.1
PSU Defense	13	59%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.06	1.5	37%	29%	.29	11%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	39%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.29	1.9	33%	28%	.28	7%	2.3
PSU Offense	13	49%	46%	20.8	32.5	252.5	7.8	12.2	29	7	.34	1.6	30%	33%	.42	5%	2.1

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.09 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 565.65 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -11.09 Penn State: 25.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -17.7 Penn State: 26.0

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 25.72 #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
2023 Talent Rating: 858.06 #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 47
Massachusetts 7

Projected Total Points: 53

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	Penn State	63	Massachusetts	0	Penn State -42	Penn State	55.0	Over
2014	09/20	Penn State	48	Massachusetts	7	Penn State -30	Penn State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	2	2	1 Overs
Massachusetts	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#121) UMASS at (#5) PSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	PSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#121	#5
SP+SP+	#125	#4
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#6
OffenseOff	#97	#27
DefenseDef	#135	#4
Spec TeamsST	#136	#8
TalentTal	#76	#13
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#13

Massachusetts Injury Report

Penn State Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	PSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#4
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#59	#2
SP+SP+	#99	#4
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#59	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#34

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#106	#19
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#80	#1
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Penn State on Offense


CategoryCat	PSU Off	UMASS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#27	#135
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#31	#129
SP+SP+	#26	#124
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Penn State Run Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#27	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#14	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#113

Penn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#130
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#60	#114
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Penn State -42.0 (55.0)
Penn State won vs Massachusetts this year (63-0)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Massachusetts in 2023 (63-0)

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	139	227	61%	1507	6	6	6.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)	62	101	61%	886	6	3	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	236	1157	12	4.9	47
Gregory DeRosiers	37	301	4	8.1	60
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	11	93	1	8.5	17
Ahmad Haston	16	54	0	3.4	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	57	792	3	13.9	71
George Johnson	35	421	3	12.0	32
Mark Pope (Tr)	33	420	1	12.7	54
Gino Campiotti	21	289	4	13.8	30

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Te'Rai Powell	59	1	0	2	3
Nahji Logan	59	3	1	1	1
Gerrell Johnson	51	2	0	0	0
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1
JB Brown (Tr)	38	5	3	4	1
Derrieon Craig	24	5	2	1	1
Zukudo Igwenagu	29	3	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Juan Lua	23	0	0	0	5
Tyler Rudolph	40	2	1	1	4
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)	31	0	0	1	4

PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	233	388	60%	2631	25	2	6.8
Beau Pribula	11	21	52%	149	4	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	172	902	6	5.2	50
Nicholas Singleton	171	752	8	4.4	24
Beau Pribula	56	329	6	5.9	39
Drew Allar	74	210	4	2.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keandre Lambert	53	673	4	12.7	72
Tyler Warren	34	422	7	12.4	75
Theo Johnson	34	341	7	10.0	34
Nicholas Singleton	26	308	2	11.8	53

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Winston Jr.	60	3	0	0	5
Kobe King	59	6	2	1	0
Curtis Jacobs	50	9	3	5	0
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adisa Isaac	37	16	8	4	0
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5
John Dixon	26	6	5	0	3
Demeioun Robinson	15	8	4	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daequan Hardy	22	3	1	0	7
Kevin Winston Jr.	60	3	0	0	5
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5