Merrimack at Massachusetts - 2023 Matchup Preview
Merrimack logo Merrimack Warriors at Massachusetts MinutemenMassachusetts logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UMass -16.5 (57.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Massachusetts 31 - Merrimack: 21

 
Warriors (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 21 - 31 (21 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -12  (SP+ UMASS -18)
UMASS Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 38 (27 - 37 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Merrimack's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Merrimack at Massachusetts+16.557.5L 21 - 31UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Merrimack's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.045.5W 41 - 30OY
Sat 9/2 Massachusetts at Auburn+35.052.0L 14 - 59ON
Sat 9/9 Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+7.045.0L 28 - 41ON
Sat 9/16 Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+7.050.0L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/23 Massachusetts vs New Mexico-3.548.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 9/30 Massachusetts vs Arkansas State-2.555.5L 28 - 52ON
Sat 10/7 Massachusetts vs Toledo+19.055.5L 24 - 41OY
Sat 10/14 Massachusetts at Penn State+42.055.0L 0 - 63ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Massachusetts at Army+10.049.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 11/4 Massachusetts vs Merrimack-16.557.5W 31 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts at Liberty+26.564.5L 25 - 49OY
Sat 11/25 Massachusetts vs UConn-2.551.0L 18 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MER0%210%000%000%310%0%0000
UMASS#72 (.18)42% (68)23.245% (47)3.35 (21)14240% (86)2143.73 (82)#124 (.31)49% (132)37.853% (131)43% (92)4.31 (114)70.91.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MER0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS#69 (.19)41% (94)43% (78)3.1 (50)16438% (110)1823.73 (89)#114 (.26)46% (116)51% (128)40% (71)4.66 (129)63.20.80.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MER Offense121210%00000000%0%0%0%0%
UMASS Defense1237.836.748.5%4.311.2 - - - - - 58%42%53%43%15%.31
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MER Defense131310%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
UMASS Offense1223.226.742%3.731.4183561422144.451%48%45%40%21%.18

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Merrimack10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Massachusetts1229:4517.836%23%870.91.41.24.51.5226.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MER Offense10%0%000000%0%0
UMASS Defense1258% (130)53% (131) - - - - .34 (131)3.83 (133)85% (123)9% (89)1 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MER Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
UMASS Offense1251% (59)45% (47)32.5142.24.419 (69).25 (18)3.35 (21)62% (125)14% (127)1.14 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MER Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
UMASS Defense1242% (4)43% (92) - - - - - - 8 (100).31 (94)1.8 (122)29% (121)37% (125).47 (124)6% (90)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MER Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
UMASS Offense1248% (76)40% (86)17.729214.17.412.114 (106)11 (68).18 (99)1.5 (85)32% (62)33% (50).43 (35)7% (109)2.2 (36)

Merrimack's Power Ratings
Merrimack's Power Rating: NR
Merrimack's Offense Rating: NR
Merrimack's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Merrimack's 2023 Expected Record: -
Merrimack's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Merrimack's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Merrimack's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average NEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Merrimack:    Massachusetts: -11.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Merrimack:    Massachusetts: -17.7




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.895  #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17  #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87  #129
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7  #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Merrimack Scoring
Offense: 21 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Merrimack's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Merrimack 26
Massachusetts 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Merrimack 22
Massachusetts 11

Total Points: 33

Based on Entire Season
Merrimack 29
Massachusetts 28

Total Points: 57
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.7
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 36.7

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Massachusetts31Merrimack21UMass -16.5Merrimack57.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts100 Overs
Merrimack011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#NR) MER at (#121) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMERUMASS
Power RatePwrNR #121
SP+SP+NR #125
Perf GradeGradeNR #132
OffenseOffNR #97
DefenseDefNR #135
Spec TeamsSTNR #136
TalentTalNR #1
Blue ChipsBC%NR #75
Merrimack on Offense
CategoryCat
MER OffUMASS Def
Perf GradePerfNR #135
SuccessSucNR #132
ExplosiveExpNR #66
PPAPPANR #124
PowerPwrNR #129
SP+SP+NR #124
Pts POPPONR #114
HavocHavNR #97
Merrimack Run Game
CategoryCat
MER OffUMASS Def
Run GameRunNR #130
Run SuccessRSucNR #131
Run ExplRExpNR #69
PPAExpNR #131
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #133
Stuff RateStuffNR #133
TackleTak -  #113
Merrimack Pass Game
CategoryCat
MER OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePassNR #130
Pass SuccessPSucNR #92
Pass ExplPExlNR #122
PPAExpNR #94
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #114
F7 HavocF7NR #89
DB HavocDBNR #90
Massachusetts on Offense
CategoryCatUMASS OffMER Def
Perf GradePerf #97NR
SuccessSuc #68NR
ExplosiveExp #48NR
PPAPPA #72NR
PowerPwr #59NR
SP+SP+ #99NR
Pts POPPO #82NR
HavocHav #129NR
Massachusetts Run Game
CategoryCat
UMASS OffMER Def
Run GameRun #59NR
Run SuccessRSuc #47NR
Run ExplRExp #11NR
PPAExp #18NR
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLY #21NR
Stuff RateStuff #29NR
TackleTak - NR
Massachusetts Pass Game
CategoryCatUMASS OffMER Def
Pass GamePass #106NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #86NR
Pass ExplPExl #85NR
PPAExp #99NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80NR
F7 HavocF7 #127NR
DB HavocDB #109NR
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

MER 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 10
Massachusetts -16.5 (57.5)
Massachusetts won vs Merrimack this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
Massachusetts beat Merrimack in 2023 (31-21)

  
MER's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyvon Edmonds Jr.11658455.049
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyvon Edmonds Jr.2314306.219

View Merrimack's Full Roster

MER's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Frazier100010
Kendal Sims100000
Donte Williams90001
Kenneth Cooper70000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Frazier100010
Nicholas Lenon40011
Nasir Maryland10000
Jared Dunn20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nicholas Lenon40011
Donte Williams90001
Garry Rosemond Jr.50001

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)13922761%1507666.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)6210161%886638.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams2361157124.947
Gregory DeRosiers3730148.160
Anthony Simpson (Tr)119318.517
Ahmad Haston165403.47
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)57792313.971
George Johnson35421312.032
Mark Pope (Tr)33420112.754
Gino Campiotti21289413.830

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Te'Rai Powell591023
Nahji Logan593111
Gerrell Johnson512000
Billy Wooden5011671
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Billy Wooden5011671
JB Brown (Tr)385341
Derrieon Craig245211
Zukudo Igwenagu293100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Juan Lua230005
Tyler Rudolph402114
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)310014